Physician Demand Projections by Specialty +~20% by 2020

[OncoCaP]

I thought this was pretty cool. I'm not sure how accurate these projections are. In any case, they point out that we will probably need more specialists.

http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/reports/physiciansupplydemand/assessingadequacyofsupply.htm

Because the national supply of primary care physicians is growing at roughly the same rate as requirements, there will likely be little change in market pressures to improve the undersupply of primary care physicians in rural and other underserved communities. Under the high-demand growth scenario, growth in demand for primary care physicians exceeds growth in supply. Between 2005 and 2020, demand for non-primary care physicians will grow faster than supply (Exhibit 34). These national projections mask the projected inadequacies in individual specialties, with specialties such as general surgery, urology, ophthalmology, cardiology, pathology, orthopedic surgery, other internal medicine subspecialties, otolaryngology, radiology, and psychiatry seeing demand grow much faster than supply.


http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforc...lydemand/physicianrequirementsprojections.htm

(See table by specialty at link)

Typical are ~20% increases in demand from 2005 to 2020

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[armybound]

Now let's see how physician salary is projected to grow under a nationalized plan..

It's good to see, though. It's nice knowing those of us who want to specialize will still be in demand.

 

[MacGyver]

Meanwhile there are a total of 27 new medical schools in the works over the next 5 years.....

 

[dutchman]

I thought this was pretty cool. I'm not sure how accurate these projections are. In any case, they point out that we will probably need more specialists.

http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/reports/physiciansupplydemand/assessingadequacyofsupply.htm

Because the national supply of primary care physicians is growing at roughly the same rate as requirements, there will likely be little change in market pressures to improve the undersupply of primary care physicians in rural and other underserved communities. Under the high-demand growth scenario, growth in demand for primary care physicians exceeds growth in supply. Between 2005 and 2020, demand for non-primary care physicians will grow faster than supply (Exhibit 34). These national projections mask the projected inadequacies in individual specialties, with specialties such as general surgery, urology, ophthalmology, cardiology, pathology, orthopedic surgery, other internal medicine subspecialties, otolaryngology, radiology, and psychiatry seeing demand grow much faster than supply.


http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforc...lydemand/physicianrequirementsprojections.htm

(See table by specialty at link)

Typical are ~20% increases in demand from 2005 to 2020

How did pathology make the list? I thought they came a dime a dozen these days.

 

[armybound]

Meanwhile there are a total of 27 new medical schools in the works over the next 5 years.....

wow, is that true? I'd never heard that statistic.

good news for healthcare in the US though.

 

[deleted77919]

I'll be interested to see what happens to physician supply and demand once all the baby boomers die off. Will some medical schools close and the others reduce the number of seats they have? And what about all the people already in practice who trained to meet the demand of the now dead baby boomers?

 

[dutchman]

I'll be interested to see what happens to physician supply and demand once all the baby boomers die off. Will some medical schools close and the others reduce the number of seats they have? And what about all the people already in practice who trained to meet the demand of the now dead baby boomers?

you should be retired by then. Just sit on the sidelines and watch the drama unfold.

 

[mvenus929]

I'll be interested to see what happens to physician supply and demand once all the baby boomers die off. Will some medical schools close and the others reduce the number of seats they have? And what about all the people already in practice who trained to meet the demand of the now dead baby boomers?

Well, the baby boomers had kids. My mom had 4 of them...

Plus, there's all that immigration going on...

I don't think we'll have much problem with demand dropping off suddenly

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyrs.pl?cty=US&out=d&ymax=300 (I hope that works... it's US, dynamic).

 

[dutchman]

Well, the baby boomers had kids. My mom had 4 of them...

Plus, there's all that immigration going on...

I don't think we'll have much problem with demand dropping off suddenly

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyrs.pl?cty=US&out=d&ymax=300 (I hope that works... it's US, dynamic).

i always forget that little detail.

 

[jjmack]

Meanwhile there are a total of 27 new medical schools in the works over the next 5 years.....

welcome to a world where med schools are going to be branded like law school are now.

 

[Abilene85]

What do you guys think about the possibility of outsourcing radiologists?

 

[MacGyver]

wow, is that true? I'd never heard that statistic.

good news for healthcare in the US though.

First off, yes its true. I have an ongoing list of them posted in the allopathic forum. Search for "new med school list". I might bump it up myself just to make sure that everyone is aware of this.

Secondly, its NOT good news. We have a freaking for-profit school opening in Colorado because the DO accreditation process lies somewhere between opening a hot dog stand vs a Chuck-E-Cheese restaurant.

 

[durfen]

What do you guys think about the possibility of outsourcing radiologists?

One messup by an outsourced non-US board certified radiologist is all that is needed. Congress will descend upon the business like a bat out of hell.

I'm counting on it .

 

[THP]

I think it is interesting that my chosen field of OB/GYN has such low predicted growth. I wouldn't expect it to be as much as an internal medicine subspecialty but with all the hispanic illegal aliens I would think they would need more of us. Maybe they are predicting that they will solve this particular problem.


Also, I don't really see why it matters if they open more med schools as long as the number of residency slots stays the same. I would rather have americans than FMGs filling our residency slots.

 

[rockstar77]

First off, yes its true. I have an ongoing list of them posted in the allopathic forum. Search for "new med school list". I might bump it up myself just to make sure that everyone is aware of this.

Secondly, its NOT good news. We have a freaking for-profit school opening in Colorado because the DO accreditation process lies somewhere between opening a hot dog stand vs a Chuck-E-Cheese restaurant.

Seems like there a surge of DO schools opening up ...way more than MD schools.