Predictions: Will 2022-23 match cycle have less applicants than previous cycles?

[Datypicalpremed]

So underclassman of mine took a gap year between MS2 and 3…just to get that P/F step 1. Apparently lots of folks in my school are doing this. We talked about the implications of this and realized that it could mean that the upcoming 2022-23 match cycle might be less competitive as there would be less applicants…at the expense of the 2023-24 cycle. On the other hand, this is just n=1 and it could be there are more people trying to sneak into this cycle before we all become lab rats for the match process.

Thoughts? And not just asking cause I’m a MS4 with skin to lose in this game 😅

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[DOVinciRobot]

Uh no. The number is going to go up each year with the unending river of new schools

 

[Datypicalpremed]

Uh no. The number is going to go up each year with the unending river of new schools

True, I guess a better question would be will the increase in applicants this year be less than the increase from previous years

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

If anything this will be more competitive as the individuals who didn’t delay step are probably more competitive

 

[SooConfused]

True, I guess a better question would be will the increase in applicants this year be less than the increase from previous years

What's the difference? I seriously doubt a statistically significant number of people chose to throw away a year's worth of attending salary just to not have to apply with a Step 1 score, so how would knowing the answer make any difference at all with respect to where you are going to apply?

 

[SooConfused]

If anything this will be more competitive as the individuals who didn’t delay step are probably more competitive

Not if a lot less people are actually applying (which I doubt). Some of the people who delay might actually have received high scores, and others might have been successful with not so high scores. Having only a subset of a pool applying cannot mathematically makes things more competitive if they would always be in the pool regardless.

For instance, if the bottom 40% of MCAT scores simply did not apply, that would not make med school admissions more competitive, even though it would raise average scores. A lot of people with lower scores are successful each cycle, and not having them in the pool would just make it easier for those who remain.

 

[SurfingDoctor]

 

[Kardio]

Thoughts? And not just asking cause I’m a MS4 with skin to lose in this game 😅

Not a significant enough difference for it to have any influence on your behavior this year

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

Probably not. Even in the 2020-2021 cycle, in the middle of COVID, the number of applicants was the highest ever despite most people being unable to get away rotations and a decent number of people taking research years

 

[Ho0v-man]

I can’t imagine a significant amount of people would take a year off just to not have to study as hard for a test.

 

[Captain_Falcon]

I can’t imagine a significant amount of people would take a year off just to not have to study as hard for a test.

I know of 1 classmate of mine that took a research year after M2 to avoid taking a scored step 1. They are gunning for ortho apparently. It doesn't make mucu sense because they still have to crush step 2. They easily could have taken their research year after M3

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I know of 1 classmate of mine that took a research year after M2 to avoid taking a scored step 1. They are gunning for ortho apparently. It doesn't make mucu sense because they still have to crush step 2. They easily could have taken their research year after M3

I think this makes sense for people who go to T20s but think they may not score too well. Otherwise, opportunity cost is too high

 

[Captain_Falcon]

I think this makes sense for people who go to T20s but think they may not score too well. Otherwise, opportunity cost is too high

You still need a high step 2 tho. And my school is low tier MD

 

[operaman]

I think 23-24 will see many competitive fields with a surge in applicants as many people test out the new meta. Currently there is a lot of self selection that occurs after step 1 that may temporarily be lost. There’s also the issue that CK may be too late for that same level of self selection so some people with borderline scores may go for it anyhow since they don’t really have time to put together a new application.

Overall numbers are likely to be driven by growth in schools, but numbers in individual fields may see a lot of turbulence over the next few years.

 

[mrbreakfast]

I agree that we will probably see a modest but noticeable increase in applicants to some of the more competitive fields (e.g. derm, ortho, plastics) for the first few years, specifically because applicants haven't been told they aren't competitive due to their step 1 scores. This may be accompanied by an increase in dual applications.

 

[Ho0v-man]

I know of 1 classmate of mine that took a research year after M2 to avoid taking a scored step 1. They are gunning for ortho apparently. It doesn't make mucu sense because they still have to crush step 2. They easily could have taken their research year after M3

Lol. If you’re afraid of taking scored step 1 then prepare for an underwhelming step 2 score.

I dunno how much ortho PDs actually look into this stuff. But someone who puts up an average step 2 and took a research year to avoid a scored step 1 doesn’t sound like someone with the work ethic for surgery tbh.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I think 23-24 will see many competitive fields with a surge in applicants as many people test out the new meta. Currently there is a lot of self selection that occurs after step 1 that may temporarily be lost. There’s also the issue that CK may be too late for that same level of self selection so some people with borderline scores may go for it anyhow since they don’t really have time to put together a new application.

Overall numbers are likely to be driven by growth in schools, but numbers in individual fields may see a lot of turbulence over the next few years.

I predict many more applying for backups as well.

 

[SooConfused]

I predict many more applying for backups as well.

Aren't backups inherently weaker and less likely to be successful? If so, what would people expect to accomplish? And isn't this precisely a potential issue NRMP is attempting to address with the secondary match?

Sorry, but I just don't see how throwing together last minute backups in response to underwhelming CK scores is going to do anything for anyone, assuming it would actually happen. Having another shot in another match, after seeing what's left and knowing how you did, now that's another story.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Sorry, but I just don't see how throwing together last minute backups in response to underwhelming CK scores is going to do anything for anyone, assuming it would actually happen. Having another shot in another match, after seeing what's left and knowing how you did, now that's another story.

Maybe but I feel like as incoming medical students skew older, fewer will be willing to risk taking another year off. I mean who wants to be 29 or 30 reapplying for match. I guess they could find a surgery prelim or something but we all know those tend to lead to nowhere

 

[SooConfused]

Maybe but I feel like as incoming medical students skew older, fewer will be willing to risk taking another year off. I mean who wants to be 29 or 30 reapplying for match. I guess they could find a surgery prelim or something but we all know those tend to lead to nowhere

I think you might be misunderstanding me. I didn't mean in the next year, I meant in the supplemental match they are talking about instituting.

I totally hear what you are saying about people wanting backups because they don't have Step 1 scores to plan around. I'm just thinking that backup apps look like what they are, and are unlikely to gain a lot of traction if things actually continue to be more and more competitive.

 

[Goro]

I believe that if more people are failing step and level one this year, it will put the fear of God into 2nd year students next year, and they will take step studying a lot more seriously more seriously.

So no, I don't think fewer people will be taking boards next year.

 

[operaman]

I predict many more applying for backups as well.

Very true. And if they’re smart, they will cultivate that backup rather early so they have a more convincing application with stronger letters. Avoids having to come up with a reason for that sudden distaste for Ortho and passion for PM&R that occurred right after Step 2 scores were released.

 

[SooConfused]

Very true. And if they’re smart, they will cultivate that backup rather early so they have a more convincing application with stronger letters. Avoids having to come up with a reason for that sudden distaste for Ortho and passion for PM&R that occurred right after Step 2 scores were released.

Exactly how does this work in the real world? Given how competitive everything is, I would think every minute of effort diverted from a primary specialty toward a backup is going make it more likely that the backup is going to be needed, creating a vicious self-fulfilling prophesy that only the least confident gunner among us is going to be willing to indulge.

If someone lacks the self awareness to realize they are not going to be competitive for ortho until a Step 2 score is released, I'm not sure they are going to be smart enough to be hedging their bets from Day One. And if they possess the self awareness, then they are not going to be needing a backup in the first place.

I'm just beginning this journey myself, but, from what I've seen so far, I have a hard time believing high Step 1 scores come out of nowhere and are a shock to those receiving them. Similarly, I am going to have a hard time believing Step 2 scores are going to come out of nowhere for the vast majority of people.

Most people perform at a given level all along, P/F or no P/F. This goes for pre-clinicals, rotations, Step 1, whatever. If a low performer wants to delude themselves into thinking they are competitive for a highly competitive specialty because their middling performance is masked by P/F, only to be exposed at the last minute by a middling Step 2 score, I wouldn't know what to say to them. But I would think they'd surely be setting themselves up for failure by hedging their bets from orientation forward.

 

[operaman]

Exactly how does this work in the real world? Given how competitive everything is, I would think every minute of effort diverted from a primary specialty toward a backup is going make it more likely that the backup is going to be needed, creating a vicious self-fulfilling prophesy that only the least confident gunner among us is going to be willing to indulge.

If someone lacks the self awareness to realize they are not going to be competitive for ortho until a Step 2 score is released, I'm not sure they are going to be smart enough to be hedging their bets from Day One. And if they possess the self awareness, then they are not going to be needing a backup in the first place.

I'm just beginning this journey myself, but, from what I've seen so far, I have a hard time believing high Step 1 scores come out of nowhere and are a shock to those receiving them. Similarly, I am going to have a hard time believing Step 2 scores are going to come out of nowhere for the vast majority of people.

Most people perform at a given level all along, P/F or no P/F. This goes for pre-clinicals, rotations, Step 1, whatever. If a low performer wants to delude themselves into thinking they are competitive for a highly competitive specialty because their middling performance is masked by P/F, only to be exposed at the last minute by a middling Step 2 score, I wouldn't know what to say to them. But I would think they'd surely be setting themselves up for failure by hedging their bets from orientation forward.

You might be right and for many students that probably fits. It’s probably a select group in that 50-75th percentile who are most vulnerable to the step 2 turnaround. They’d have been scoring “above average” all along yet not high enough above to be truly competitive. Then they get a 240 CK score and realize they don’t have much of a shot.

I think cultivating a backup would take minimal effort though. An Ortho-bound person would just make sure to spend a little elective time on PM&R or something similar, get to know some faculty well enough for some letters when the time comes. Then when they switch their Ortho research and whatnot is still fairly relevant.

At least with the current timeline at many schools, you can’t even take step 2 until July of M4 and you submit eras in September. It takes at least a month or more for scores, so it’s likely 3-4 weeks before eras that people will find out. Many will probably still throw an Ortho app in the mix to see what happens but they’d be foolish not to put together something else lest they get to December and have absolutely no interviews.

The AOA crowd is probably safe and anyone below the mean will probably self select out of top fields. I do think there’s a group where a cultivated backup is a smart move.

 

[SooConfused]

You might be right and for many students that probably fits. It’s probably a select group in that 50-75th percentile who are most vulnerable to the step 2 turnaround. They’d have been scoring “above average” all along yet not high enough above to be truly competitive. Then they get a 240 CK score and realize they don’t have much of a shot.

I think cultivating a backup would take minimal effort though. An Ortho-bound person would just make sure to spend a little elective time on PM&R or something similar, get to know some faculty well enough for some letters when the time comes. Then when they switch their Ortho research and whatnot is still fairly relevant.

At least with the current timeline at many schools, you can’t even take step 2 until July of M4 and you submit eras in September. It takes at least a month or more for scores, so it’s likely 3-4 weeks before eras that people will find out. Many will probably still throw an Ortho app in the mix to see what happens but they’d be foolish not to put together something else lest they get to December and have absolutely no interviews.

The AOA crowd is probably safe and anyone below the mean will probably self select out of top fields. I do think there’s a group where a cultivated backup is a smart move.

Excellent points! Thanks for the insight!!!

 

[SooConfused]

I believe that if more people are failing step and level one this year, it will put the fear of God into 2nd year students next year, and they will take step studying a lot more seriously more seriously.

So no, I don't think fewer people will be taking boards next year.

You are correct, and I think people are already starting to see exactly what you are describing.

That said, I think you somewhat misunderstood the question. I think OP was asking about fewer people participating in the match this year because they took a gap year after MS2 and deferred Step 1 at that time in order to avoid having a score reported.

The question wasn't about fewer people taking Step 1 next year. It was about fewer people entering the match this year. And the consensus seems to be that enough people wouldn't have done that to make a perceptible difference in match outcomes for the upcoming cycle.

 

[Goro]

You are correct, and I think people are already starting to see exactly what you are describing.

That said, I think you somewhat misunderstood the question. I think OP was asking about fewer people participating in the match this year because they took a gap year after MS2 and deferred Step 1 at that time in order to avoid having a score reported.

The question wasn't about fewer people taking Step 1 next year. It was about fewer people entering the match this year. And the consensus seems to be that enough people wouldn't have done that to make a perceptible difference in match outcomes for the upcoming cycle.

Jeeze, what was I thinking??????

 

[DOVinciRobot]

Similarly, I am going to have a hard time believing Step 2 scores are going to come out of nowhere for the vast majority of people.

I agree for the most part, but there are a lot of schools now where so many things are P/F that there are definitely students who don’t really understand where they stand with regards to other applicants. People can definitely get to Step 2 and have a score come out of nowhere. There is even enough variation from practice tests to the real thing that there are still a decent amount of students who are surprised by their score on test day.

 

[operaman]

I agree for the most part, but there are a lot of schools now where so many things are P/F that there are definitely students who don’t really understand where they stand with regards to other applicants. People can definitely get to Step 2 and have a score come out of nowhere. There is even enough variation from practice tests to the real thing that there are still a decent amount of students who are surprised by their score on test day.

Very true.

I’m not sure what the nbme will do with the unscored step 1 but it would be a big help to applicants to Show them where they rank nationally compared to other students. Even though percentiles will be a bit wonky given difference in studying, it could be very helpful to know where you stand.

I heard they will release a scored report to you if you fail to help you study your weaknesses. I think something similar for everyone would go a long way in helping people plan.

 

[Ho0v-man]

I agree for the most part, but there are a lot of schools now where so many things are P/F that there are definitely students who don’t really understand where they stand with regards to other applicants. People can definitely get to Step 2 and have a score come out of nowhere. There is even enough variation from practice tests to the real thing that there are still a decent amount of students who are surprised by their score on test day.

Med students frequently are not self-aware. They all think they’re special.

Am I the only one who went to school with people who bragged all the time about the competitive specialty they were going into despite barely passing in preclinical? Reality didn’t set in for those people until dedicated.

Some of them didn’t realize it wasn’t happening until they got their scores back.

Some still didn’t realize until multiple people told them there’s no shot.

A few of them still applied and got zero interviews.