Realistic ortho chances or time to face the music?

[deleted548851]

Lower mid 240 on step1 (242-245), just starting rotations. Charting outcomes 2018 has ortho avg at 248 so by this data obviously I have a chance, BUT I feel might be getting kinda outdated for ortho and others like this as I have heard from students in years above/recently matched that the bar has begun to creep well into the 250s for those who are actually ranked to match. Factual? Coupled to this my tolerance for the risk of going unmatched/reapplying with research year etc. is on the low side for my own personal life situation. (older student, have wife etc etc)

I do have research in ortho already and have been doing ortho research since M1, with a few abstracts and 1 ortho pub so far (3rd/mid author) as well as a few more in the works/a first author. Also have 1 pub pre-med school in unrelated basic science.
Go to my state MD (so unfortunately not a big/brand name I can lean on either) but I do have a home program and have been doing research with one surgeon. Obviously gonna have to grind for rotations to get as many H as I can & do at minimum a comparable/better Step2 regardless of what I end up doing (ortho or not), but I guess its more do I proceed with all my ortho research as I have a realistic shot, or just cut ortho and start the transition to something else. I guess my rationale for this is I dont really want to apply to another specialty with a boatload of ortho work and it be obvious I self-selected myself out of ortho and am dropping down. Also making a plan B and dual-applying I have heard isn't always a great way to go for various reasons (shouldn't dual apply to the same program, etc).

Thanks

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[ceilingfan019]

Most places with higher cutoffs for Step 1 are around 240. Otherwise, the other programs don't state having cutoffs but probably have one lower than 230. Your chances aren't 0%. Probably better than 50% at the moment with another year to go to improve your chances. Crush step 2, crush rotations, get good letters, and I think you have a great shot.

Edit: Also, be cool on your rotations. Cannot emphasize how many students mess up by saying weird stuff.

 

[Frogger27]

Statistically you have an 80% chance of matching according to charting outcomes (Interactive NRMP data Step 1 240-249). If this is something you are comfortable then definitely go forward.. Your step score will not hold you back, but there is an inevitable amount of risk that goes into applying Orthopaedics even with 250/260, AOA ,etc that you have to be comfortable with

 

[TheBoneDoctah]

I dont think anyone ever feels comfortable applying ortho even with great stats. Things happen. If you love ortho, then go 100% in. Thats the only way u will get it.