The view from someone now on the other side of the fence:
Take what you think non-military physicians earn and cut it in 1/2. If you are a surgical specialist cut it in 1/4.
For a primary care physician as an O-6 you will earn more in the military than in private practice (latest salary survey I saw had 60% of family medicine physicians earning less than 140K.) For general surgeons and most medical specialties (i.e. not Cards or GI) it will be close.
The best article on the current state of physician salaries was published in April in the Bulletin of the American College of Surgeons by Robert DeGroote (April 2007, Vol 92, No 4, pp. 28-36.) In his general/vascular surgery group the salary is 200K a year. Here is his calculation of what physicians actually earn per hour (as in actual salary on the pay check) in New York City:
Family Practice $47.28
Internal Medicine $51.38
Neurology $63.00
Ob/gyn $79.58
General Surgery $83.74
Otolaryngology $84.99
Cardiology $96.31
He basically found that insurance reimbursement was higher for vets (as in cats and dogs) than it is for surgeons doing the same procedure.
For the more lucrative sub-specialties there has been a massive cut in salaries over the last ten years. To make matter worse, deep cuts in Medicare reimbursements are programmed for the next ten years, so salaries are only going to continue dropping.
Unless you are doing cash-only cosmetic procedures, there are no more than a handful of physicians making more than 500K a year in physician salary. (Owning an imaging or day surgery center is a different matter.) Talking with my colleagues, a good salary for a private practice neurosurgeon these days is 375K, in academics starting salaries are running around 170K, a non-chair attending may hit 250-300K, with a chair having 400K+ potential. Diagnostic radiology can approach those numbers but that means reading films 12 hours a day 50 weeks a year.
View material from a physician recruiter with the same skepticism that you would from a military recruiter.
As a postscript, it is pretty easy to determine what your salary would be:
1) Figure out how many office visits/procedures you will do per day/week/year. (And hope that your volume is actually determined by how many you want to do and not how many show up.)
2) Find the CPT code for each and determine the number of RVUs you will do per year.
3) Multiply that by the current Medicare conversion factor for your region. (You can bill more, but then you have to include the collection rate. The Medicare rate turns out to be a very good estimate in all cases.)
4) Divide by two to account for overhead (nurse/clerical salaries, malpractice, rent, supplies, etc.)
5) If you are in a group practice and are not a full partner, divide by two.
5) Take out medical, diability, life, dental insurance, taxes, social security, retirement, etc., etc.