I'd believe it. Here's why, at least in my theory, the DO route could actually work to your advantage.
Let's first make some assumptions (which, as a math major, I'm sure you realize are key to starting any valid proof). Let's assume that good grades during college are strongly correlated with success in medical school. I don't think many people will argue against this; most kids who struggle to get a 2.4 are going to be fighting the most uphill battle in the history of academics.
Secondly, let's assume our friend Shinken was a smart kid, but either his grades or MCAT didn't quite cut it. Anyone who can get through med school and pass the boards is of at least above average intelligence, in my book. Once again, this is a safe assumption. However, let's say Shinken is a non-traditional student, and the reason his grades aren't so hot is because he screwed around as a young man, and as a result, his freshman and sophomore year GPAs were lower than his BAC. He was able to clean himself up, do well, get a master's degree, whatever floats your boat. A DO school gave him a shot, and so did an MD school.
Now the dilemma: where to go?
99% of people would say MD, hands down. And why not? The stigma of being a DO; must hard to get a job out there with those squiggly letters after your name. Sarcasm aside, why would one pick DO if they were Shinken? Because:
If we go back to our original assumption that undergraduate GPA is strongly correlated with success in medical school (meaning if you were a genius in undergrad, you'll probably be a somewhat strong med student; sure the majority will kill just to pass, but every class has gunners that will get straight As), than your classmates in a DO school will be "less smart," than your classmates in an MD school. So, let's say our friend Shinken knows he is smart, but is not confident he could be at the top of the class at the MD school.
Let's say during his master's degree (an SMP, where you take med school classes), he achieved a 3.6 GPA. Not bad, not bad at all. However, that was an MD school, where he competed with the top shelf students. What if he competed against DO students, who because of their undergrad GPAs, surely will struggle more in med school than MD students with their higher GPAs? This is why I say DO might be a good idea. Knowing his abilities and his limits (very important part), he might be able to gauge where he will most likely be at the top of the class. If he feels, after meeting fellow classmates on the applicant trail for both schools, that the pre-MD kids were all ChemE majors with 4.0s as opposed to his pre-DO friends who were 3.5 Art History majors, where do you think he'd pick? I'd go DO.
Now, let's apply this on a larger scale. Say Shinken wants to get into dermatology when he graduates. There are obviously far more allopathic residencies for derm than osteopathic ones; but that doesn't mean there's only one or two programs. There's a respectable amount of spots. Derm, either osteo or allo, takes the cream of the cream of the crop. So, would you want to compete against Harvard grad with a 260, a UCSD grad with 5 pubs, or the Yale grad whose dad is the PD? Or would you rather be able to apply to osteopathic derm residencies (where you are competing against students who many non-DOs would label as weaker students academically)? Once again, if I wanted one of these uber-competitive spots, I'd have to go with osteopathic; UNLESS I was so confident in my studliness that I felt I really had a shot at being top of the class at the MD school and being able to smash the USMLE (which, from what the majority of DOs say, is much harder than the COMLEX, which is what you take to get the osteopathic residency).
Is my theory perfect? No, it's probably just that; a theory that wouldn't work in real life. Still, I don't believe it's completely unrealistic. I think if one was completely unconcerned about the letters after their name, and only cared about what they felt put them at an advantage for certain residencies, they might actually choose DO a little more often. Because in the end, if I wanted to be an ENT or something, and I ended up a family practice MD, I'd probably be pretty down. I don't think I'd care that I had MD after my name; I'd rather have DO after my name and get to practice in the field that I wanted to most. And in the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make.
75% chance that Shinken replies to this thread and says the reason he chose DO over MD is location, though.
