I think we can learn a lot from law and other professions. There will be contractions in earnings, etc overall, but the people going to mid-top tier institutions should be fine owing to brand name and good alumni network.
If I were going into EM, I'd probably stick it out if my program is well known in the top half of EM programs. The projections look bad and EM residents should rightfully be worried, but ditching a mid or higher tier EM program to go match IM is akin to panic selling.
People care where their lawyer went to school. People go to the nearest ER