Stock market 2021

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www.yahoo.com

Wall Street's top stock market forecasters are already telling clients what to expect in 2022

Wall Street’s top stock market forecasters are already telling clients what to expect in the stock market in 2022.Why it matters: The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is up an impressive 20% since the beginning of the year. It’s more than doubled from its March 2020 low.Stay on top of...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

The vast majority of professional economists are very cautious about 2022 for stocks. Stagflation is a real risk and growth will be reduced.

I would not be a buyer or seller of stocks at this point but rather wait for a pullback at the end of this year or early next year when Wallstreet investors panic over something unexpected.
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Nothing to see here. We’ve only added 35% of this country’s total money supply ever the last 18 months. What could possibly go wrong? Inflation was never looked at as a byproduct ever. What a surprise.
 
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Sorry, busy getting rich today off the Trump SPAC in this completely rational market.
 
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106963736-1634813862952-gettyimages-1236019209-20090101211021-99-678900.jpeg
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Nothing to see here. We’ve only added 35% of this country’s total money supply ever the last 18 months. What could possibly go wrong? Inflation was never looked at as a byproduct ever. What a surprise.
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if there is inflation it is likely to send stocks higher as this supply constraint lets them push prices and revenues (and profits) higher
 
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nimbus said:
May be a good trade. Long term it’s app may be banned like Parler was if they cannot or won’t control the content.
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I would think even die-hard Trump supporters would find that name “TRUTH social” ironic.
 
BLADEMDA said:
www.cnbc.com

Inflation is not going away any time soon. Here's how top financial advisors are handling it

Everyone, from Federal Reserve officials to individual investors, is worried about inflation. What top advisors from CNBC's FA 100 list are doing about it.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


“The big argument right now is how much inflation are we going to get and how permanent will it be,” said James Angel, associate professor of finance at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

Signs of cost push inflation, which is marked by increases in production costs, are cropping up now, just as they did in the 1970s, Angel said.

On top of that, there has been both monetary and fiscal stimulus heaped on the economy. That in itself is going to be inflationary, Angel said.

“We need to buckle up our seat belts,” Angel said. “Inflation is here. It’s real.”

Financial advisors who landed on this year’s CNBC Financial Advisor 100 list say inflation is a top issue in their work with clients. For many of those clients, it is as much emotional as it is financial.
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Gee who could have possibly seen this coming? We're going to soon be over 30 trillion in debt with all the spending coming down the pike financed increasingly by printed money because we can no longer afford to borrow the full amount at market rates, our energy production has been cut so we are again at the mercy of OPEC, we are paying people to not work and businesses are dying from lack of help, and crime and shoplifting as well as a ridiculous sieve border are adding more stress to the system.

These are just the absolute dumbest policies imaginable to try to have a strong vigorous economy. Increasing the supply of money while decreasing economic production is going to give you inflation. Other than Covid it has all been self inflicted.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
A big risk for 2022 is inflation. This will force the FED to raise interest rates, slash QE.
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Simply not mathematically possible to significantly raise rates for any long term period. Same goes for slashing QE. ESPECIALLY in this insane environment of let's just spend many trillions more that we don't have. This is the end result of believing politicians over basic numerical principles.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Simply not mathematically possible to significantly raise rates for any long term period. Same goes for slashing QE. ESPECIALLY in this insane environment of let's just spend many trillions more that we don't have. This is the end result of believing politicians over basic numerical principles.
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If we weren't monetizing the debt via the fed, we would have had to raise interest rates long ago to auction enough t bills to run the country. Since the debt is now almost entirely being"purchased" by the fed through balance sheet expansion (fiat), the final act is under way.
 
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gasdoc77 said:
If we weren't monetizing the debt via the fed, we would have had to raise interest rates long ago to auction enough t bills to run the country. Since the debt is now almost entirely being"purchased" by the fed through balance sheet expansion (fiat), the final act is under way.
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I don't know how long it will take the final act to play out, but it is encouraging that at least someone gets it. Always amazes how many think we have this endlessly functioning well oiled machine that can just spend trillions we don't have and simply print the difference without any negative consequences, just like magic.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
www.cnbc.com

Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey says 'hyperinflation' will happen soon in the U.S. and the world

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey weighed in on escalating inflation in the U.S., saying things are going to get considerably worse.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

It’s one thing to call for faster inflation, but it may be surprising to some that Dorsey used the word hyperinflation, a condition of rapidly rising prices that can ruin currencies and bring down whole economies
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did they also ask LeBron James what he thought about it?

jack dorsey?????

I mean Dorsey doesn't even have a college degree. Definitely not qualified to comment on macroeconomics.
 
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Mman said:
did they also ask LeBron James what he thought about it?

jack dorsey?????

I mean Dorsey doesn't even have a college degree. Definitely not qualified to comment on macroeconomics.
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You think only people with a college degree is required to understand a topic? Peak elitist comment. Instead of going to college, Jack was busy building 2 billion dollar companies
 
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Mman said:
did they also ask LeBron James what he thought about it?

jack dorsey?????

I mean Dorsey doesn't even have a college degree. Definitely not qualified to comment on macroeconomics.
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Neither Bill Gates nor Steve Jobs has a college degree.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
You think only people with a college degree is required to understand a topic? Peak elitist comment. Instead of going to college, Jack was busy building 2 billion dollar companies
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I don't think it is elitist to question the macroeconomic understanding of a guy who is rich because he programmed a website. Elitist would be assuming he could never be successful. I mean should we ask him how to best prepare a rack of lamb? Are there no limits to what he should be expected to be an expert on?

But like I said, LeBron didn't graduate college either so let's ask him about hyperinflation.


When it comes to inflation and expectations, there are actual experts we can rely on and there are also markets that measure it (both actual and expected future) that we can gain knowledge from. If you disagree with market expectations of inflation going forward, feel free to profit off it.
 
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narcotics999 said:
Neither Bill Gates nor Steve Jobs has a college degree.
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you seem to think I am thinking less of him as a human or entrepreneur because he does not have a degree. I am not. I am questioning his credentials to comment intelligently on a topic completely unrelated to his business. If he offered a commentary on the likely strength of storms in the Atlantic in 2022, I would also question that.
 
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The Fed chair (an expert in the economy) went from there will be no increased inflation —> economy is running “hot” —> this inflation is “transitory” —> inflation is running higher than anticipated —> the have no immediate plans to slow down that increased inflation. All that talk was from March 2020 to now. With technology deflationary forces and government/US central Bank continued debt creation we probably see stagflation. But not to do your own HW and trust the “experts” is fool hardy.

Just because someone doesn’t have a degree doesn’t mean they can’t learn about something new. I stand by my comment. You’ve mentioned your PhD before in another thread and it seems that has a “degree” makes them smarter on a subject. I disagree.

Best of luck to you.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The Fed chair (an expert in the economy) went from there will be no increased inflation —> economy is running “hot” —> this inflation is “transitory” —> inflation is running higher than anticipated —> the have no immediate plans to slow down that increased inflation. All that talk was from March 2020 to now. With technology deflationary forces and government/US central Bank continued debt creation we probably see stagflation. But not to do your own HW and trust the “experts” is fool hardy.

Just because someone doesn’t have a degree doesn’t mean they can’t learn about something new. I stand by my comment. You’ve mentioned your PhD before in another thread and it seems that has a “degree” makes them smarter on a subject. I disagree.

Best of luck to you.
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you seem to be confusing me with someone else

I stand by my comment that Dorsey is no more qualified to comment on "hyperinflation" than a million other people so we certainly shouldn't use him as an appeal to authority any more than we would cite LeBron James on the topic.

Stating you should "do your own homework" on the topic is on par with the your average ******* telling their doctor they don't trust them or the CDC or Fauci or whoever and are going to do their own homework on covid vaccines.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
You think only people with a college degree is required to understand a topic? Peak elitist comment. Instead of going to college, Jack was busy building 2 billion dollar companies
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I don't care enough to check, but I recall many on this site telling people without medical and science degrees to abstain from having input on COVID. But...
Mman said:
you seem to think I am thinking less of him as a human or entrepreneur because he does not have a degree. I am not. I am questioning his credentials to comment intelligently on a topic completely unrelated to his business. If he offered a commentary on the likely strength of storms in the Atlantic in 2022, I would also question that.
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Someone's credentials should have no bearing on the validity of their argument. Plenty of people with great credentials spout some pretty stupid ideas that I ignore despite their credentials.

I am against the debt being increased the way it is. I am also against the amount of pork in the Build Back Better bill. Just insane. Less government spending is better. We have a spending problem that needs to be fixed. We are exhibiting the same behavior as those people making $200,000+ but carry a credit card balance and live paycheck to paycheck.

That being said, if our inflation stays below or equal in relation to the rest of the world we will be alright.
 
BobLoblaw78 said:
I don't care enough to check, but I recall many on this site telling people without medical and science degrees to abstain from having input on COVID. But...

Someone's credentials should have no bearing on the validity of their argument. Plenty of people with great credentials spout some pretty stupid ideas that I ignore despite their credentials.

I am against the debt being increased the way it is. I am also against the amount of pork in the Build Back Better bill. Just insane. Less government spending is better. We have a spending problem that needs to be fixed. We are exhibiting the same behavior as those people making $200,000+ but carry a credit card balance and live paycheck to paycheck.

That being said, if our inflation stays below or equal in relation to the rest of the world we will be alright.
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Many of the PhD's and even MD/PhD's I have come across over the years were not particularly impressive. Often, they struck me as the ones who weren't competitive enough in standardized testing to get into a legitimate medical school on the first try.
 
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BobLoblaw78 said:
Someone's credentials should have no bearing on the validity of their argument. Plenty of people with great credentials spout some pretty stupid ideas that I ignore despite their credentials.
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completely agree, but along those lines having founded a company like Twitter does not mean I should give any special attention to their opinion on any number of other topics unrelated to it.
 
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nimbus said:
Anyone else notice TSLA bumping up against $1000/share?


www.cnbc.com

Tesla hits $1 trillion market cap for the first time after Hertz says it will buy 100,000 electric vehicles

News of the deal brought Tesla's stock to a record high, the second straight trading day the shares have hit a new high.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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Awesome. Discharge your debts in bankruptcy. Borrow massive amounts of cheap money to buy a fleet of very expensive cars. If it fails…no problem. Let’s do bankruptcy again.
 
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dr doze said:
Awesome. Discharge your debts in bankruptcy. Borrow massive amounts of cheap money to buy a fleet of very expensive cars. If it fails…no problem. Let’s do bankruptcy again.
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The American way.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
www.nerdwallet.com

Guide to Early Retirement: How to Retire Early - NerdWallet

Learn five steps you need to take to retire early, then calculate when you might be able to retire with our early retirement calculator.
www.nerdwallet.com www.nerdwallet.com

For those that want to retire at age 50 they would need to save up $5 million to draw down 3% each year or $150,000. That $150,000 would also likely be cut in half in terms of purchasing power over the next 20 years ( that is assuming a good scenario vs one where the US dollar loses 2/3 of its purchasing power).

The numbers heavily favor semi-retirement for most as the weak U.S. Dollar means you will need even more money to retire.
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What exactly does this 5m need to be invested for the highest success like index funds? Does the math work for someone under 50 if you are using 3 % withdrawal?
 
finalpsychyear said:
What exactly does this 5m need to be invested for the highest success like index funds? Does the math work for someone under 50 if you are using 3 % withdrawal?
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How do you define success? Maximum returns with maximum risk or moderate returns with less than market risk? I would argue that only you can truly answer that question. Also, many of you don’t save enough money to achieve your retirement goal without taking on more risk.

3 percent withdrawal rate is highly likely to be a sustainable level from age 49 until death. This assumes an investment mix heavily biased towards equities. Bonds are unlikely to allow a 3 percent SWR. I would say if you are planning on retiring early then a portfolio geared towards equities 90/10 would be the most likely way you can hit your number. Again, it depends on your savings rate as well as the rate of return.

in addition, the portfolio should have exposure to high growth tech stocks besides the overall market. Even after hitting my number, I still believe tech stocks are an essential component of my portfolio.

I like both ETFs and index funds as both are very tax efficient. ETFs allow you exposure to certain areas of the market like the Tech Sector.
 
BLADEMDA said:
How do you define success? Maximum returns with maximum risk or moderate returns with less than market risk? I would argue that only you can truly answer that question. Also, many of you don’t save enough money to achieve your retirement goal without taking on more risk.

3 percent withdrawal rate is highly likely to be a sustainable level from age 49 until death. This assumes an investment mix heavily biased towards equities. Bonds are unlikely to allow a 3 percent SWR. I would say if you are planning on retiring early then a portfolio geared towards equities 90/10 would be the most likely way you can hit your number. Again, it depends on your savings rate as well as the rate of return.

in addition, the portfolio should have exposure to high growth tech stocks besides the overall market. Even after hitting my number, I still believe tech stocks are an essential component of my portfolio.

I like both ETFs and index funds as both are very tax efficient. ETFs allow you exposure to certain areas of the market like the Tech Sector.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply. Success simply meaning you don't run out of money at that swr. I would think dividend stocks play a role in that as well. Throw in some 1.5m in dividend stock and you have half your withdrawal and most likely those dividend funds keep slowly increasing payouts.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
unless they are completely lying to us and know better.

The Federal Reserve Holds More Treasury Notes and Bonds than Ever Before
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This is precisely what I believe... Example: if they acknowledge inflation as being some artificially low % and use that to justify paying 2% on federal paper, yet inflation is actually 6%, that 4% spread is where the government is silently defaulting on its debt obligations through devaluation. The bigger the spread, the bigger the value losses for anyone holding T-bills at low fixed rates (or dollars for that matter).
 
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nimbus said:
Now approaching $1200/share.

LCID is now a WSB meme stock too. Just starting deliveries now.
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So what​

While the primary reason for the growth stock's gain on Monday morning may simply be continued momentum from its torrid run last week, two other reports that are circulating could be helping as well.

First, the company announced on Monday that it is launching a pilot program under which it will make 10 of its Supercharger stations in the Netherlands usable for non-Tesla vehicles. Non-Tesla vehicles will pay more than Teslas for a charge, but a membership program that lowers the prices will be available, the company said. If the pilot program goes well, this could lead to a new revenue stream for the automaker.

Additionally, the company launched a leasing program in China that lets customers get their hands on Tesla vehicles with no down payment. While the aggressive leasing program could be good for demand, it also signals that the automaker is confident in its ability to ramp up production to meet the demand it already has. Otherwise, why bother initiating such an aggressive new financing option?

Key Points​

  • Shares of Tesla are up by about 50% since Oct. 1.
  • The automaker is piloting a program to let owners of other manufacturers' electric vehicles recharge them at some Supercharger network stations.
  • Despite global supply constraints, new Model 3 orders in the U.S. are slated to ship in December.

www.fool.com

Why Tesla Stock Is Up Again Today | The Motley Fool

The electric vehicle maker now has a market capitalization well above $1 trillion.
www.fool.com www.fool.com
 
markets.businessinsider.com

Lucid jumps 9% as deliveries of its Air sedan begin and reviews suggest it's a formidable Tesla competitor

Lucid Group expects to deliver 20,000 vehicles next year and generate more than $2 billion in revenue.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com

Lucid will face increasing competition into next year from both legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors, as well as new entrants like Rivian.
But for now, investors are betting Lucid will have no trouble competing against both new and old EV companies, with the company's market valuation just a few billion shy of Ford as of Monday morning.

Lucid makes better cars than Tesla. So, if you are looking for the next Speculative play sell Tesla with a P/E of 400 and buy Lucid. At some point in the next 24 months the other manufacturers are going to start to close the gap with Tesla and when they do Tesla drops while the other autos go up. Right now most auto manufacturers have a supply problem with chips but I guess Tesla doesn't.

I own tesla in my ETFs but not as an individual stock. While I readily admit Tesla has made some of you a lot of money there is no way this stock isn't greatly over-valued based on LUCID and RIVIAN entering the market not to mention GM and Ford.
 
The five companies that form MAMAA are: Meta (formerly Facebook), Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple.

Microsoft — which on Friday passed Apple to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company — was not formally part of the old FAANG acronym, although many on Wall Street would often mention it in the same breath as its fellow technology giants.

I own every one of these individually and in my ETFs/Index Funds.
 
BLADEMDA said:
The five companies that form MAMAA are: Meta (formerly Facebook), Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple.

Microsoft — which on Friday passed Apple to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company — was not formally part of the old FAANG acronym, although many on Wall Street would often mention it in the same breath as its fellow technology giants.

I own every one of these individually and in my ETFs/Index Funds.
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They are all large cap US growth and highly correlated.

BTW “Meta” means “death” in Hebrew. Zuck must have slept through his Hebrew classes.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Lucid makes better cars than Tesla
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Do they? I do not own a Tesla, but my colleagues that do really like driving them. The complaints I have heard about them are from the assembly process. Like when you get it, the door might not close perfectly aligned or what not and the need to adjust it. But the driving experience has been uniformly great according to my colleagues.

I know nobody that drives a vehicle made by Lucid.
 
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Mman said:
Do they? I do not own a Tesla, but my colleagues that do really like driving them. The complaints I have heard about them are from the assembly process. Like when you get it, the door might not close perfectly aligned or what not and the need to adjust it. But the driving experience has been uniformly great according to my colleagues.

I know nobody that drives a vehicle made by Lucid.
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They just started deliveries. Very expensive cars.


 
nimbus said:
They just started deliveries. Very expensive cars.


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so it's a $170K car??? I guess I would hope it is nicer than a $45-55K Tesla. But also an extremely limited market for cars in that price range.
 
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