Stock market 2021

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It certainly would reduce their liquidity which matters in a bad bear market

I'm going to need some examples to be able to comment a bit more in depth. I am agnostic about crypto so do not really know if it will go up, down, or sideways, but in any event it is at least quite liquid and could be turned into dollars rapidly if needed.

I am unaware of any major company that has a current balance sheet that would show crypto to be a significant liquidity risk in an earnings crash for them. Important to remember that a bear market does not necessarily mean companies are going bankrupt, just that their stock price fell. Even the biggest fear mongers about an imminent stock crash are not worried about earnings right now, they are just worried about a shock that causes short term stock price crash.

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Yeah if you only doubled or tripled your money over the past 13 years, something went terribly wrong.



The curves look scarier than reality. Look at the scale. S&P went from 1500 to 1490?? Who cares?
My net worth is about negative 135x what it was 13 years ago.
If you time it right it is much higher than that gain.
 
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I am a believer in the USA and the great companies we have here. The S and P 500 or Russel 1000 represents some of the best companies in the world. Long term I think the market goes up provided the earnings are there to justify the Price. If we get even a mild recession due to higher interest rates or inflation then earnings will drop causing stock prices to fall. Companies can increase their prices on their goods but that takes time and may not be enough to restore earnings during a recession. Traders and professional investors will rush to the exit sign and sell stock hand over fist. The result will be a big drop in equity prices. Even good companies which are considered recession proof will see a drop. Tech companies with very high P/E ratios could see 3/4 decline in their stock price. This has happened before and will again in the next 12-36 months. Those who have bonds or cash will be able to purchase the best growth companies/stocks at fire sale prices. Typically, once the economy recovers these stocks skyrocket higher.

My entire thesis for why you need bonds or CDs or Cash is based on the last 3 market crashes. If the next crash is anything like the other 3 those with money to invest will make a fortune. Any stock purchases now in those high flyers will result in a loss when the market corrects. This means start raising cash by setting aside new money for a much better entry point or sell some stocks this winter to have cash available.

My research into the best asset managers shows most are concerned about valuations and a recession in 2022 so they are paring back positions. They aren’t selling everything but rather making sure they have dry powder available for 2022 plus limiting losses if we do enter into a bear market.

I am not advocating any of you make drastic changes to your portfolio but rather have some money available in 2022. By protecting your down side risk you will increase the odds of rebounding much faster once the economy recovers.
 
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Have a plan

A stock market crash is practically inevitable, so it's important to think about what you might want to accomplish when one happens. You can put some things in place now in order to help you follow the plan.

For example, you may want to have some extra cash on the sidelines. That cash could be used as an emergency fund if the stock market crash coincides with an economic downturn and potential job loss. You could also put that extra cash to work by buying stocks after they've come down in price.


If you maintain a diversified portfolio with a certain asset allocation, make a plan for how and when you'll rebalance your portfolio. Using guardrails for how far off your target allocation you'll allow your portfolio to wander is more effective than rebalancing on a set time interval. A stock market crash is likely an opportune time to sell Treasury securities and buy stocks since they usually move in opposite directions.


 
This has happened before and will again in the next 12-36 months.

why would you ever think you can time the market successfully?

People predict market crashes all the time. If you have a long time horizon you should not waste the mental energy trying to get prepared for it. Have an asset allocation you like, keep it, and tune back in 20 years later and you will have done just fine. It's the stupid panic moves people make either worrying about a correction or trying to do something after a correction that hurt them.
 
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why would you ever think you can time the market successfully?

People predict market crashes all the time. If you have a long time horizon you should not waste the mental energy trying to get prepared for it. Have an asset allocation you like, keep it, and tune back in 20 years later and you will have done just fine. It's the stupid panic moves people make either worrying about a correction or trying to do something after a correction that hurt them.
End of 2020, I received a large chunk of money from an investment that sold. I thought, “gee the market is really high right now, I dont feel comfortable with lump sum. I’ll just dollar cost average over the next year.”

As of today I would need the market to drop >20% to have this be the right decision, and I will need to invest the rest of the money after that drop.

Right now, I look at the rest of my money from that investment and I think “gee, the market is really high right now, I’m not comfortable dropping in a lump sum, I’ll just DCA in”
Wonder how this will work out for me..
 
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Partner of mine liquidated his entire portfolio (decent 7 figure chunk) in 3/2020 prognosticating that the 30% drop the S&P 500 had taken to date was just the beginning of the COVID-related hurt.

He still hasn’t bought back in (just sitting on a massive amount of cash in his money market account).

I didn’t tell him this because he is my friend, but he has lost not just a 7 figure sum the past 14 months. He has lost the future value of that 7 figure sum compounded over the next 40+ years. For a 40 year old attending, this series of missteps will likely extend his career by at least 5 years.

I don’t say this to make fun. He is a smart guy and a really good guy. But let’s learn from the mistakes of others and not repeat them. The further along I get in my investing career, the more I appreciate how little I know and the role of luck and random chance (and self sabotage) in one’s fate.
 
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why would you ever think you can time the market successfully?

People predict market crashes all the time. If you have a long time horizon you should not waste the mental energy trying to get prepared for it. Have an asset allocation you like, keep it, and tune back in 20 years later and you will have done just fine. It's the stupid panic moves people make either worrying about a correction or trying to do something after a correction that hurt them.
Exactly, timing the market by shifting from stocks into cash at the peak, then buying the nadir, and then converting back into stocks immediately prior to the next dip is virtually impossible. Most of the time people shift into cash, then become progressively more convinced that any day now they’ll get their 40%, 45% 50% (the degree of crash usually increases to whatever figure would allow them to justify going cash at that time). Truly sad.

That said adopting a more aggressive position (heloc, cash out refi etc) in response to a recession (not hard to call a recession) is profitable, but man…I feel many people here weren’t reading finance news in 2008/2009. Tons of “double dip” and “are we the next japan?” Type headlines and the last thing people wanted to do was be more aggressive in the face of that…but that is truly the hard part, to be greedy while others are afraid.

Anyone can be conservative while others are greedy (because even while being conservative the goal is to make even MORE money, so the viewpoints aren’t even that discordant). In contrast when every article radio station etc. all are talking about how horrible the market is and how it will NEVER go up, that is when it is hard to buy, especially since you’re already down, and it’s even harder to lever up in that environment, but fortune favors the bold.

Partner of mine liquidated his entire portfolio (decent 7 figure chunk) in 3/2020 prognosticating that the 30% drop the S&P 500 had taken to date was just the beginning of the COVID-related hurt.

He still hasn’t bought back in (just sitting on a massive amount of cash in his money market account).

I didn’t tell him this because he is my friend, but he has lost not just a 7 figure sum the past 14 months. He has lost the future value of that 7 figure sum compounded over the next 40+ years. For a 40 year old attending, this series of missteps will likely extend his career by at least 5 years.

I don’t say this to make fun. He is a smart guy and a really good guy. But let’s learn from the mistakes of others and not repeat them. The further along I get in my investing career, the more I appreciate how little I know and the role of luck and random chance (and self sabotage) in one’s fate.
Probably most common investing mistake I have seen, but no sense beating oneself up over it. On a daily basis there are stocks/options that are 2-100x’ing in value. On a weekly basis there are quite literally a million ways for anyone here to turn 1,000 into 1,000,000 or vice versa. Your friend could have done worse than sitting on cash for a year or two…now just make sure he eventually gets back in (even if it’s not a lump sum now and psychologically he feels like DCA will help him, that’s fine.)
 
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why would you ever think you can time the market successfully?

People predict market crashes all the time. If you have a long time horizon you should not waste the mental energy trying to get prepared for it. Have an asset allocation you like, keep it, and tune back in 20 years later and you will have done just fine. It's the stupid panic moves people make either worrying about a correction or trying to do something after a correction that hurt them.
My posts are about raising 10-20% of your total portfolio in cash/CDs or bonds. This means you are invested at all times with at least 80% in equities. That isn't "timing" as much as just smart allocation with a market this expensive. Many of you are 100% equities.

Second, the 90/10 allocation is for younger investors. Older investors who are 80/20 or 70/30 should consider paring back about 10% to have cash available for 2022.

Third, I am predicting a rise in the market of about 7% from now until the end of the year so raise cash slowly and towards the winter.

Fourth, based on market P/E ratios and inflation being conservative and avoid losing excessive amounts of money is prudent investing as we head into 2022.

I never make "stupid panic moves" as I am a long term investor who tweaks his portfolio depending on market conditions and valuations.
 

Top Investors Know Cash in a Portfolio Has Multiple Roles​

The best investors in history are known for keeping large amounts of cash on hand. They know through first-hand experience how terrible things can get from time to time—often without warning. In August 2019, Warren Buffett and his firm Berkshire Hathaway held a record $122 billion in cash.1 Charlie Munger would go years building up huge cash reserves until he felt like he found something low-risk and highly intelligent. As of April 13, 2020, the legendary Tweedy Browne Global Value Fund allocated 13.82% of the fund's holdings to cash, T-Bills, and money markets.2


Privately, wealthy people like to hoard cash, as well. A 2019 Capgemini World Wealth report released found that people with at least $1 million in investable assets kept nearly 28% of their portfolio in cash.3 If (or when) the economy enters another recession, those cash reserves will allow these wealthy investors to buy cheap homes, stocks, and other assets.


Cash facilitates all of an investor's success, even if it looks like it's not doing anything for long periods.
In investing parlance, this is known as "dry powder." The funds are there to exploit interesting opportunities—to buy assets when they are cheap, lower your cost basis, or add new passive income streams.


Cash as Liquidity Reserves​

Another role cash plays in your portfolio is to serve as a liquidity reserve you can draw down when markets seize or stock exchanges are closed for months at a time. Under these circumstances, it's nearly impossible to liquidate assets—you can't turn your investments into real cash at these times.


Buffett is fond of saying cash is like oxygen—everyone needs it and takes it for granted when it's abundant, but in an emergency, it's the only thing that matters. The leading personal financial gurus recommend keeping at least six months' worth of expenses reserved in an FDIC insured checking, savings, or money market account.


In this capacity, the cash goes beyond giving you the ability to acquire attractive assets, it's an insurance policy when you need to cover the bills and you can't tap your other funds. Benjamin Graham once said that the true investor is rarely forced to sell their securities—if the portfolio management system is good enough, you'll have the cash to make it through the darkest of times.4


Retired investors are especially in need of cash to prevent losses when the economy begins a period of shrinkage.
Imagine you determine a safe retirement withdrawal rate is 3%, all else being equal, for your portfolio. You put $500,000 aside and invested it at a cash yield of 2.8%. By keeping at least 10% in cash, or $50,000, the economy could experience a 1929-style collapse, and you wouldn't have to sell any of your holdings to fund your cash flow needs, no matter how bad it got.



Cash Is Comfort​

Another role of cash in your portfolio is psychological. It can get you to stick with your investment strategy through all sorts of economic, market, and political environments by providing peace of mind. When you look at reference data sets, like the ones put together by Roger Ibbotson, you can peruse historical volatility results for different portfolio compositions.


Though these studies tend to use a stock/bond configuration, the basic lesson is that diversified portfolios minimize losses without significantly missing out on gains. Having a well of reserve capital into which you can dip, and which serves as an anchor when markets fall, is a source of comfort that little else in financial life can offer.
 
Here is an example of what I am discussing for younger investors: Go with a 80/20 or 90/10 portfolio as we close out 2021:

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For younger investors the "bonds" can be in short term US treasuries or Short duration bond funds or short term TIPs etfs or just cash. This money will be used in 2022 or 2023 to go back up to 90/10 or 100% equities when the market corrects. That assumes the investor wants a 90/10 or 100% equity portfolio.
 
Worst case scenario is a 50% market crash with some stocks dropping 70%. That could take years to recover from even with dollar cost averaging.

Your worst case scenario is my best case scenario. Same for those with a good number of peak earning years ahead of them

I did very well over the past year with continued monthly investments, no matter what the market was doing. As a consequence, I bought on the way down and the way back up. These market timing scenarios and "dry powder", which is just another version of market timing, make me laugh. So much data out there to show not to do this, yet people continue with this plan

My crystal ball is a little bit cloudy. For all I know, the market could be the lowest it's ever going to be again. Why bother guessing which way the market is going to go? Remember last year when you were predicting another further crash in April/May during the recovery period? For those that listened, they missed out on a huge run up

I heard a study the other day, that said if you missed just the best 20 market days of the past 20 years, your return was 0%! Hopefully that's enough to tell anyone not to dance in and out of the market
 
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My posts are about raising 10-20% of your total portfolio in cash/CDs or bonds. This means you are invested at all times with at least 80% in equities. That isn't "timing" as much as just smart allocation with a market this expensive. Many of you are 100% equities.

When you claim to know exactly when the market correction is going to happen, you are timing the market.

I am nowhere near 100% equities myself, but if somebody is 25 or 30 and planning to work til they are 65 or older, being 100% equities is probably the best possible allocation for a while.
 
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Anyone can be conservative while others are greedy (because even while being conservative the goal is to make even MORE money, so the viewpoints aren’t even that discordant). In contrast when every article radio station etc. all are talking about how horrible the market is and how it will NEVER go up, that is when it is hard to buy, especially since you’re already down, and it’s even harder to lever up in that environment, but fortune favors the bold.
No. If you have won the game take most of your chips off the table. You don't risk money that you do need to make money that you don't need. More money is always better- but not at the risk of not meeting one's goals. Risks do have a way of showing up from time to time.
 
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No. If you have won the game take most of your chips off the table. You don't risk money that you do need to make money that you don't need. More money is always better- but not at the risk of not meeting one's goals. Risks do have a way of showing up from time to time.
What I’m referring to are people that are licking their chops fantasizing about the next dip to deploy their powder. They have a similar mindset (capital growth) as other bullish people in equities during a bull market, they just see the path to riches as pulling money into cash right before a crash that is just around the corner.

People that are close to retirement and only want to maintain capital wouldn’t buy a dip even if it occurred, as again, their goal is preservation of capital not growth. They are very different from the former. They aren’t talking about the next crash because they don’t care. They’re conservatively positioned and won’t change their investment allocation in the event of a crash.
 
What I’m referring to are people that are licking their chops fantasizing about the next dip to deploy their powder. They have a similar mindset (capital growth) as other bullish people in equities during a bull market, they just see the path to riches as pulling money into cash right before a crash that is just around the corner.

People that are close to retirement and only want to maintain capital wouldn’t buy a dip even if it occurred, as again, their goal is preservation of capital not growth. They are very different from the former. They aren’t talking about the next crash because they don’t care. They’re conservatively positioned and won’t change their investment allocation in the event of a crash.
An allocation strategy means that when stocks drop more than 10-15% a "rebalance band" is triggered and you BUY equities. Then, when the market recovers the "rebalance band" is hit again and stocks are sold.

A few of us even "flex" the band to buy more equities and stretch the allocation if the fire sale is a good one. But, the diligent, focused investor will pare back that exposure as the market breaks out to all time highs (like today).

The key is to stay with your allocation strategy so you build a big cushion as well as a large portfolio of equities.


 
For me the rule has been simplified:

remember that it takes a 20% change to hit a 5% band.

I keep my allocation no greater than 70/30 but should be 60/40 at the most. The run up in stocks has caused me anxiety as I am late to rebalance.
 
For instance, a portfolio that was targeted to be 50% in equities (with the other 50% in bonds) might aim not to just rebalance annually, but to rebalance whenever the total equity exposure grows above 60% (which would signal a significant level of outperformance for stocks over bonds, implying that they might have become overvalued to the point that a sale would be appealing).

In this context, if the equities appreciated rapidly and reached the 60%-equity threshold in just six months, then the rebalancing trade would occur in six months. If equities grew more slowly and it took three years before the portfolios’ equity exposure finally drifted up to 60%, then it would be three years before the first rebalancing trade occurred. Either way, as shown below, the rebalancing trade would not occur until equities had outperformed by enough, cumulatively, to cause the equity allocation to rise to 60%. Of course, this also ensures that the stocks are not sold “too early” while they’re still rising!
 
Yeah, but does that strategy outperform 100% equities if you have a long time horizon like many of us, Blade?

I’m of the KISS philosophy. I have an asset allocation and rebalance Jan 1 every year (actually just adjust future purchase % to get closer to my goal allocation) but it is 100% equities. 70% total US, 15% total intl, 10% EM, 5% REIT.
 
My personal approach is to look at the asset classes themselves and rebalance when they get out of hand which occurs with a bull market or a severe bear market.

For example, growth stocks/technology has the biggest swings vs any other asset class (except Crypto). This asset class can be up 100-200% in 2 years but when the market crashes they fall 70%. So, I am aware that not every asset class is the same and I use a wider rebalance band for Tech/growth stocks than I do for value/dividend paying ones.

Ultimately, each investor needs to have a plan and risk tolerance for his/her allocation strategy. A younger investor may not care that his/her growth stocks are up 300% while an older investor would want less exposure.


 
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Yeah, but does that strategy outperform 100% equities if you have a long time horizon like many of us, Blade?

I’m of the KISS philosophy. I have an asset allocation and rebalance Jan 1 every year (actually just adjust future purchase % to get closer to my goal allocation) but it is 100% equities. 70% total US, 15% total intl, 10% EM, 5% REIT.
If we are going to use hindsight then nothing beats growth stocks over the past 10 years and investing in any other class resulted in lower returns (except crypto). Hence, some younger investors are not only 100% equities but they are 100% growth!
 
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I have 30 years before I need this money. I think 100% equities is best in this scenario (if you can avoid self sabotage as I posted about above).
You should look into private real estate deals to diversify your portfolio. Publicly traded REITS are not as good a diversifier as privately held real estate assets. If you have 30 years then this current real estate boom won't matter long term to your goal. I would say that was my biggest investing oversight of my portfolio since the real estate crash in 2008/2009. The chance to buy real properties for 1/3 less than book value.
 
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But, the diligent, focused investor will pare back that exposure as the market breaks out to all time highs (like today).

To be fair, the stock market is usually near an all time high. Something like almost 8% of trading days the last 70 years have been spent at the actual all time high and way, way, way more than that have been spent within 5% of an all time high.

The stock market is almost always the highest it has ever been. It occasionally drops down for weeks or months and sometimes even years. But if you are trying to sell stocks every time the market is at a high you will almost always be selling stocks which is almost always the wrong decision. In fact, buying on the day of an all time high has outperformed buying on any random day over the last 30+ years.


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To be fair, the stock market is usually near an all time high. Something like almost 8% of trading days the last 70 years have been spent at the actual all time high and way, way, way more than that have been spent within 5% of an all time high.

The stock market is almost always the highest it has ever been. It occasionally drops down for weeks or months and sometimes even years. But if you are trying to sell stocks every time the market is at a high you will almost always be selling stocks which is almost always the wrong decision. In fact, buying on the day of an all time high has outperformed buying on any random day over the last 30+ years.


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That's why professional traders wait for a breakout in a stock. Contrary to common sense once a stock "breaks out" it tends to keep going higher. Conversely, a stock that break downs tends to go lower.

I prefer fundamental investing based on P/E and predicted future earnings. The main reasons to sell stocks are 3 fold: 1) profit taking for traders
2) you need cash and 3) re-allocation back to your strategy (which for me is 60/40 max). Traders like to sell and buy the next "winner." I prefer ETFs and a diversified portfolio but I do own individual stocks (typically large caps only) purchased when they look cheap.
 
It’s just really hard to time the market. Was at my buddy beach house. He pulled his money out November 2019 cause he thought the market was over heated. and than put it all back in April 2020. Doubled his money in past 14 months. He made out like a bandit. 4 million gain. Now back in cash since last month.

But life has a way of working itself out. He lost 1 million as med student during tech bubble bust. Lost 600k in homes during real estate crash

But as you get older. Take less chances once you reach that magic number.
 
It’s just really hard to time the market. Was at my buddy beach house. He pulled his money out November 2019 cause he thought the market was over heated. and than put it all back in April 2020. Doubled his money in past 14 months. He made out like a bandit. 4 million gain. Now back in cash since last month.

But life has a way of working itself out. He lost 1 million as med student during tech bubble bust. Lost 600k in homes during real estate crash

But as you get older. Take less chances once you reach that magic number.

That is some amazing timing and luck
 
That's why professional traders wait for a breakout in a stock. Contrary to common sense once a stock "breaks out" it tends to keep going higher. Conversely, a stock that break downs tends to go lower.

I prefer fundamental investing based on P/E and predicted future earnings. The main reasons to sell stocks are 3 fold: 1) profit taking for traders
2) you need cash and 3) re-allocation back to your strategy (which for me is 60/40 max). Traders like to sell and buy the next "winner." I prefer ETFs and a diversified portfolio but I do own individual stocks (typically large caps only) purchased when they look cheap.

that is completely unrelated to my point that if stocks are at all time highs that you should NOT lower your exposure to equities
 
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It’s just really hard to time the market. Was at my buddy beach house. He pulled his money out November 2019 cause he thought the market was over heated. and than put it all back in April 2020. Doubled his money in past 14 months. He made out like a bandit. 4 million gain. Now back in cash since last month.

But life has a way of working itself out. He lost 1 million as med student during tech bubble bust. Lost 600k in homes during real estate crash

But as you get older. Take less chances once you reach that magic number.

Sounds like he has a ton of family money and gambling it if he had a million to play with as a med student.

Probably would have been better if he put that original million(s) into index funds those years ago instead of trying to time the market. Certainly safer.
 
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How in the F did he have 1 million to invest as a med student??
Look up Cisco stock (and that’s one that is still around!). He probably had 20k to invest that quickly spiraled into an absurd amount of money. Or he bought a company that just happened to do well because he liked their product. Sometimes all you need is to notice that dominos has really darn good garlic crust (happened around 2010) buy some stock…and the rest is history.

My best performing stock purchases were all based off enjoying the product/service first, and then looking into the financial side of things rather than vice versa. But that may just be a product of the era I got into investing.
 
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Partner of mine liquidated his entire portfolio (decent 7 figure chunk) in 3/2020 prognosticating that the 30% drop the S&P 500 had taken to date was just the beginning of the COVID-related hurt.

He still hasn’t bought back in (just sitting on a massive amount of cash in his money market account).

I didn’t tell him this because he is my friend, but he has lost not just a 7 figure sum the past 14 months. He has lost the future value of that 7 figure sum compounded over the next 40+ years. For a 40 year old attending, this series of missteps will likely extend his career by at least 5 years.

I don’t say this to make fun. He is a smart guy and a really good guy. But let’s learn from the mistakes of others and not repeat them. The further along I get in my investing career, the more I appreciate how little I know and the role of luck and random chance (and self sabotage) in one’s fate.
I just started investing at the start of the 30% drop.

I was waiting out for longer expecting the same. A good friend of mine said , why wait longer? Everything's on sale , 30-50% off already. Just buy now and don't be greedy. I took his advice and most of those blue chip stocks are now up 100%.

The only problem with starting investing now is the skewed perception that I can make a lot of money really fast in the market.
 
If we are going to use hindsight then nothing beats growth stocks over the past 10 years and investing in any other class resulted in lower returns (except crypto). Hence, some younger investors are not only 100% equities but they are 100% growth!
Value, and specifically small cap value outperform growth stocks over the longer run.
 
I just started investing at the start of the 30% drop.

I was waiting out for longer expecting the same. A good friend of mine said , why wait longer? Everything's on sale , 30-50% off already. Just buy now and don't be greedy. I took his advice and most of those blue chip stocks are now up 100%.

The only problem with starting investing now is the skewed perception that I can make a lot of money really fast in the market.

Covid 19 Delta Variant. That will suppress stocks internationally and emerging markets. If you can pick your entry point into these sectors over the next 30-60 days I suspect there is a lot of money to be made.

They are still undervalued vs the USA.
 
The money supply is at record highs and cannot be increased continuously relative to income, as sooner or later demand for money, which is linked to savings and income, can no longer increase.

Both stock and housing are prices are surging. Rising relative asset prices cannot be extrapolated: If they become too high, the savings of asset buyers will no longer suffice to buy, which would then inevitably lead to to a downward correction in prices. There will be a skewing of income distribution against wage earners. If wage earnings do not receive productivity gains over a long period, demand for goods and services will become too weak to absorb production, which grows rapidly when earnings are invested.

A correction in income distribution will lead to faster wage growth and higher inflation. That, in turn, will lead to a more restrictive monetary policy and higher inflation-adjusted interest rates. The more restrictive monetary policy will then stabilize asset prices and wealth, forcing deleveraging. And that deleveraging will lead to a recession due to the necessary fall in demand among households, companies and governments.

The stabilization of these variables will lead to a very drastic crisis, due to faster growth in wages and inflation, a restrictive monetary policy, a fall in wealth and asset prices, and a recession caused by a fall in domestic demand.
 
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"As stocks have risen, we are finding even fewer undervalued stocks. Across our North American coverage, less than 12% are currently rated 4 or 5 stars. This has happened in only six other months over the past 15 years. While valuation metrics have a poor record for timing the market in the short term, in the months following each of those instances, a correction occurred, sending the market down anywhere from 5% to over 20%."

Morningstar.com
 
A correction in income distribution will lead to faster wage growth and higher inflation. That, in turn, should need to more restrictive monetary policy and higher inflation-adjusted interest rates. The more restrictive monetary policy will then stabilize asset prices and wealth, forcing deleveraging. And that deleveraging will lead to a recession due to the necessary fall in demand among households, companies and governments.
Fixed that for ya....cause it won't. Our government can't afford to raise interest rates. We are living in the new MMT paradigm: proceed accordingly.
 
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