Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I'm finally in the green from my large GLD and SLV purchases back in May. Painful past 6 months, wish I had averaged down more. Technicals support a short term reversal and upswing of the dollar. Although my taxable portfolio is up 5% for the year after dumping all stocks a year ago. Hah! Debating whether to dump it all vs. just hold and add more when it pulls back.

2023 prediction: the bond market is going to F'ing rip after the mother of all recessions emerges and the yield curve violently un-inverts. Equities... I sense much pain. Load up on TLT, GLD, SLV on pullbacks I think. TBT puts and GDX calls if you want more leverage.

I'm riding SOXS for another few days and will probably go short something on every run up. Keeping my longs but lots of covered calls and with the strike price much closer than usual (more premium, doesn't seem to be the environment I will lose many stocks). I have maybe 15% in gold that I keep buried in a forest with a secret Indiana Jones type map to get to it. I don't consider it an investment but rather insurance for our laughable financial situation.

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[deleted1116990]

I have maybe 15% in gold that I keep buried in a forest with a secret Indiana Jones type map to get to it. I don't consider it an investment but rather insurance for our laughable financial situation.

I want to establish a physical holding for this reason also, but premiums are absolutely insane right now for coins and bullion, if you can even get any. Silver is worse. Demand is off the charts. So ETFs is what I am buying, but the spot price is barely budging despite stupid demand for physical. Have to pay way over spot to buy the actual metal. Nuts.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Dow closes out its worst day in three months, falls more than 700 points as recession fears grow

Investors were digesting the Fed's decision to keep hiking rates through 2023 and its higher-than-expected terminal rate.

www.cnbc.com

The correction of the stock market begins today. I expect a 10% correction.

 

[deleted1116990]

Dow closes out its worst day in three months, falls more than 700 points as recession fears grow

Investors were digesting the Fed's decision to keep hiking rates through 2023 and its higher-than-expected terminal rate.

www.cnbc.com

The correction of the stock market begins today. I expect a 10% correction.

The correction of the stock market began almost a year ago. We have been in a bear market rally. Technicals will tell you exactly how this will play out, as they have been doing this entire time. From a technical standpoint, you are looking at a fall to the 3500-3600 level for the next downswing. That's not the end though. Expect more violent rallies up on the fall down. Trade them and make money.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I want to establish a physical holding for this reason also, but premiums are absolutely insane right now for coins and bullion, if you can even get any. Silver is worse. Demand is off the charts. So ETFs is what I am buying, but the spot price is barely budging despite stupid demand for physical. Have to pay way over spot to buy the actual metal. Nuts.

OUNZ, unlike other gold funds that hold physical bullion, the fund allows individual investors to redeem shares in exchange for 1 ounce coins. Like most gold funds, OUNZ should hew closely to the price of gold, lagging only by its fee, making it an excellent way to get exposure to the price of gold.

https://www.etf.com/OUNZ#overview

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I want to establish a physical holding for this reason also, but premiums are absolutely insane right now for coins and bullion, if you can even get any. Silver is worse. Demand is off the charts. So ETFs is what I am buying, but the spot price is barely budging despite stupid demand for physical. Have to pay way over spot to buy the actual metal. Nuts.

Yeah I haven't bought gold in a while but I remember it was a good 50-75 dollars extra for each one ounce coin.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

OUNZ, unlike other gold funds that hold physical bullion, the fund allows individual investors to redeem shares in exchange for 1 ounce coins. Like most gold funds, OUNZ should hew closely to the price of gold, lagging only by its fee, making it an excellent way to get exposure to the price of gold.

https://www.etf.com/OUNZ#overview

I just get scared of an FTX situation when the dollar crashes and these funds don't really have all the gold that is invested in them. A bit of paranoia too I'm sure.

 

[MirrorTodd]

I just get scared of an FTX situation when the dollar crashes and these funds don't really have all the gold that is invested in them. A bit of paranoia too I'm sure.

A bit of paranoia is probably good for the soul. At least you aren't burying your gold under the oak tree out back.

 

[deleted1116990]

I just get scared of an FTX situation when the dollar crashes and these funds don't really have all the gold that is invested in them. A bit of paranoia too I'm sure.

Maybe GLD is safer then since you don't have a right to the actual gold?
Nothing feels safe these days...

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

The correction of the stock market began almost a year ago. We have been in a bear market rally. Technicals will tell you exactly how this will play out, as they have been doing this entire time. From a technical standpoint, you are looking at a fall to the 3500-3600 level for the next downswing. That's not the end though. Expect more violent rallies up on the fall down. Trade them and make money.

I've been engulfed in this stuff lately and every single thing I conclude is big tech in particular is dead, another good year or two before capitulation. I own some big tech. I've decided I won't sell, DEFINITELY won't add any, and starting Monday am dropping my covered call strike prices way down very close to the current level of the stock. Still huge premiums when you are that close and I see minimal risk of losing those stocks in this environment.

I'll also continue to buy short etfs after every rally. Closed out of SOXS today at 36. Could have another few days of run but it hit my strike. Like I said, if that drops back to the low 30s I'm all over it.

My other long term longs will just sit there and keep getting clubbed unmercifully. Don't want to pay taxes yet.

 

[Greenbayslacker]

Thoughts on waiting 4-6 months to dump cash into diversified low-cost index funds?

 

[BLADEMDA]

Thoughts on waiting 4-6 months to dump cash into diversified low-cost index funds?

The markets move faster than 2008. So, You should be deploying cash at intervals starting at say an S and P level of 3650 then 3600 then 3500. There is a TON of cash on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market. Sure, the LOW could be 3200 but very few actually catch the low because more people simply are too scared to deploy cash. I've been through this scenario before a few times so focus on 2024 when the markets recover to around 4500. This means you need to be IN the market to make money not on the sidelines. So many are predicting 3500 around February they could be wrong. Mr. Market tends to make most experts wrong so the low could come in the late spring. Regardless, you need to be investing some money during the next 4-5 months in anticipation of a market rally in late 2023 or early 2024.

Even if you start investing that cash at a S and P level of 3700 you will make money on the index fund in about 12 months. I find predicting market timing to be almost impossible as sentiment matters almost as much as valuations these days. The valuations are still high based on earnings for 2023 but likely not that high for 2024. The market is forward looking so try to remember you need to buy stocks before sentiment and the economy turns positive.

One last comment is that 2023 isn't even close to 2008 in terms of the economy.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Wolfe Research says expect downside into year end after fresh 21-day low in S&P 500​

Investors can expect further downside into the year end, according to Wolfe Research.
The S&P 500 posted a fresh 21-day low on Thursday, confirming that the recent stock gains were “nothing more than another bear market rally,” the firm’s Rob Ginsberg wrote in a Thursday note.
“As we have discussed over the past few weeks, everyone - both bulls and bears alike, had been looking for upside into yearend,” Ginsberg said.
“As we always say – ‘markets have a very painful way of not rewarding the consensus’ and Tuesday’s violent reversal coupled with today’s fresh 1-month low leaves us looking for healthy downside into yearend,” Ginsberg added.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Stocks look ready to spring up by 12% in 2023, with support from cooling inflation and reopening prospects in China, but too much tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve poses downside risk, Oppenheimer said Monday.

Adding its voice to the 2023 outlook for equities, the asset management firm set a target of 4,400 on the S&P 500.

 

[vector2]

Thoughts on waiting 4-6 months to dump cash into diversified low-cost index funds?

Banks and market makers have passed stress tests this year that they couldn't have dreamed of passing in 2008.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Millionaire investors haven't been this bearish since 2008

Rich investors are betting on double-digit declines in stocks next year, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

www.cnbc.com

KEY POINTS

• Rich investors are betting on double-digit declines in stocks next year, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.
• Fifty-six percent of millionaire investors surveyed expect the S&P 500 to decline by 10% in 2023.
• There is a large optimism gap between younger and older millionaires. Eighty-one percent of millennial millionaires expect their assets to be higher at the end of next year.

 

[Dr. Rude]

Millionaire investors haven't been this bearish since 2008

Rich investors are betting on double-digit declines in stocks next year, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

www.cnbc.com

KEY POINTS

• Rich investors are betting on double-digit declines in stocks next year, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.
• Fifty-six percent of millionaire investors surveyed expect the S&P 500 to decline by 10% in 2023.
• There is a large optimism gap between younger and older millionaires. Eighty-one percent of millennial millionaires expect their assets to be higher at the end of next year.

Perfectly rational. Younger millionaires have resources to weather a multi year bear market and plan to keep working and they cheer on low prices at least for awhile. Older millionaires don't have the luxury of time. May have their eye on the door job wise or are fearful of having their lifestyle seriously curtailed in retirement.

 

[ERRES2288]

People need to understand it is impossible to time the market in the short term. All these analysts predicting 3500, 3700, 4000 whatever mean nothing. To accurately predict something you need to have information or interpret information that others (the collective market) don’t have. Virtually no one has special information and very few can interpret things different other than the greatest investors.

If you want to “sin a little” that’s fine but the best move over the long term is to stay fully invested in accordance to your willingness and need to take risk at all times.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Banks and market makers have passed stress tests this year that they couldn't have dreamed of passing in 2008.

True, the ponzi is currently intact, but that could change very quickly as everything total is in exponentially more debt. When this one blows up we'll wish we were in 2008 when only a trillion or two patched up the tires for a few more miles.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Stocks look ready to spring up by 12% in 2023, with support from cooling inflation and reopening prospects in China, but too much tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve poses downside risk, Oppenheimer said Monday.

Adding its voice to the 2023 outlook for equities, the asset management firm set a target of 4,400 on the S&P 500.

I'm not as optimistic as you guys. I think big tech will bounce around but is basically dead for next year and will reassess further after that when the time comes.

Today I rolled out Feb Amazon 95 calls from the previous Jan 100 calls for a total of 5 points premium in 2 months. You give me 5 points right now of free and clear premium on Amazon every 2 months and you can have any "capital appreciation" I may miss out on.

Did the same with MSFT and GOOG. I can live with it if I'm wrong. I don't see high risk of them currently running away, and if they do the high cash premium is still mine.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I'm not as optimistic as you guys. I think big tech will bounce around but is basically dead for next year and will reassess further after that when the time comes.

Today I rolled out Feb Amazon 95 calls from the previous Jan 100 calls for a total of 5 points premium in 2 months. You give me 5 points right now of free and clear premium on Amazon every 2 months and you can have any "capital appreciation" I may miss out on.

Did the same with MSFT and GOOG. I can live with it if I'm wrong. I don't see high risk of them currently running away, and if they do the high cash premium is still mine.

Your premise seems solid. For the next 2 months my hunch is your 5 points of premium makes a lot of sense. But, after March anything is possible and you may miss out on substantial gains later in the year.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Perhaps, we get a small oversold rally this week then settle in around 3750/3700 before going lower in 2023.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Your premise seems solid. For the next 2 months my hunch is your 5 points of premium makes a lot of sense. But, after March anything is possible and you may miss out on substantial gains later in the year.

The Dow type stocks I own would like that. I think they will hold better in the next year than big tech. But certainly a possibility the tech stocks run without me.

Agree, due for an oversold rally within next few days. If it's a good rally I'll look for a fun short trade.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Japan raises interest rates futures deep red. Bulls can’t catch a break lately. Selling my entire Google position tomorrow

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Japan raises interest rates futures deep red. Bulls can’t catch a break lately. Selling my entire Google position tomorrow

What is the tie in between Google and Japan, more so than the market in general?

 

[deleted1116990]

Anybody watching what's going on in Japan with emergency margin calls?
News very silent on this. I wonder why.

Japan #1 holder US debt.
China #2.

What happens when Japan and China start dumping US treasuries?

What is the bond market saying?

I think we are going to see a lot of rethinking of the Bogleheads blind investing in index funds dogma.
These index funds are stupidly overweight big tech, which has benefited from low interest rates and a strong economy.
I think we are going to see this whole thing implode over the next 6 months fantastically.
The dollar's run is about to end. The fed has been given free rein to blow up interest rates due to fake news about what the definition of a recession is and fake job data. They are about to overshoot as yields crater and the job losses come.

Housing market. 10th straight month of negative sales. Only people buying now are dumb money the same way they did in 2006.

Time to seriously think about your investments in index funds. These are not balanced! They are heavy overweight large cap growth/big tech. Is that the sector you really want to be overweight right now? THINK ABOUT IT.

The following is not investment advice:
BUY GOLD
BUY SILVER
SHORT GROWTH
SAVE MONEY, PAY OFF DEBT, DON'T BUY A HOUSE

 

[Dr. Rude]

Anybody watching what's going on in Japan with emergency margin calls?
News very silent on this. I wonder why.

Japan #1 holder US debt.
China #2.

What happens when Japan and China start dumping US treasuries?

What is the bond market saying?

I think we are going to see a lot of rethinking of the Bogleheads blind investing in index funds dogma.
These index funds are stupidly overweight big tech, which has benefited from low interest rates and a strong economy.
I think we are going to see this whole thing implode over the next 6 months fantastically.
The dollar's run is about to end. The fed has been given free rein to blow up interest rates due to fake news about what the definition of a recession is and fake job data. They are about to overshoot as yields crater and the job losses come.

Housing market. 10th straight month of negative sales. Only people buying now are dumb money the same way they did in 2006.

Time to seriously think about your investments in index funds. These are not balanced! They are heavy overweight large cap growth/big tech. Is that the sector you really want to be overweight right now? THINK ABOUT IT.

The following is not investment advice:
BUY GOLD
BUY SILVER
SHORT GROWTH
SAVE MONEY, PAY OFF DEBT, DON'T BUY A HOUSE

Modified Bogleheads strategy: Still stay passive and ultra low cost, but, If you are normally a 60/40 type of person maybe go 50/50. The spread between growth and value is as big as it has ever been. So value tilt. International equities is about as cheap to US equities as it has ever been. Up the percentage of international stocks in your portfolio a little. Because of the shape of the yield curve keep maturities very short. Sweet spot is under a year. Total Bond is like 7 years duration. TIPs have positive real yields across the curve. Tilt towards them as opposed to nominals. Again being mindful of the shape of the TIPs yield curve. Stay short term in your maturities. I Have an order in for tomorrow's auction, reopening of a 5 year TIPs.
Make sure you tax loss harvest.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Anybody watching what's going on in Japan with emergency margin calls?
News very silent on this. I wonder why.

Japan #1 holder US debt.
China #2.

What happens when Japan and China start dumping US treasuries?

What is the bond market saying?

I think we are going to see a lot of rethinking of the Bogleheads blind investing in index funds dogma.
These index funds are stupidly overweight big tech, which has benefited from low interest rates and a strong economy.
I think we are going to see this whole thing implode over the next 6 months fantastically.
The dollar's run is about to end. The fed has been given free rein to blow up interest rates due to fake news about what the definition of a recession is and fake job data. They are about to overshoot as yields crater and the job losses come.

Housing market. 10th straight month of negative sales. Only people buying now are dumb money the same way they did in 2006.

Time to seriously think about your investments in index funds. These are not balanced! They are heavy overweight large cap growth/big tech. Is that the sector you really want to be overweight right now? THINK ABOUT IT.

The following is not investment advice:
BUY GOLD
BUY SILVER
SHORT GROWTH
SAVE MONEY, PAY OFF DEBT, DON'T BUY A HOUSE

Total dumpster fire. Might as well pile on with Dr Doom. All kidding aside, he makes a lot of valid points.

‘Slow-motion train wreck’: Economist Dr. Doom is extra gloomy as he warns of a ‘deep and protracted’ recession—and says World War III has already begun

China-U.S. tensions, rising public and private debts, and climate change are just a few of the “MegaThreats” the global economy is facing.

finance.yahoo.com

Here’s how much US stocks could fall in severe recession, ‘Dr. Doom’ says

Nouriel Roubini has warned about a sharp downturn for months.

nypost.com

Brace for a stagflationary crisis that the Fed and other policymakers will be powerless to prevent, Nouriel Roubini warns

The Federal Reserve might be powerless to prevent "the mother of all stagflationary debt crises", the 'Dr Doom' economist warned last week.

markets.businessinsider.com

Interestingly, he basically repeated a line from a discussion between ppg and I,
"Technological progress—including inventions like nuclear fusion—is the only possible savior for the global economy,"
so I gotta give him his props!

 

[BLADEMDA]

Total dumpster fire. Might as well pile on with Dr Doom. All kidding aside, he makes a lot of valid points.

‘Slow-motion train wreck’: Economist Dr. Doom is extra gloomy as he warns of a ‘deep and protracted’ recession—and says World War III has already begun

China-U.S. tensions, rising public and private debts, and climate change are just a few of the “MegaThreats” the global economy is facing.

finance.yahoo.com

Here’s how much US stocks could fall in severe recession, ‘Dr. Doom’ says

Nouriel Roubini has warned about a sharp downturn for months.

nypost.com

Brace for a stagflationary crisis that the Fed and other policymakers will be powerless to prevent, Nouriel Roubini warns

The Federal Reserve might be powerless to prevent "the mother of all stagflationary debt crises", the 'Dr Doom' economist warned last week.

markets.businessinsider.com

Interestingly, he basically repeated a line from a discussion between ppg and I,
"Technological progress—including inventions like nuclear fusion—is the only possible savior for the global economy,"
so I gotta give him his props!

All the Fed has to do is simply stop raising rates after Feb 2023 and the market rallies. I agree that the USA has serious problems going forward. Did you see the pork filled 1.7 Trillion budget being passed? But, the Fed has plenty of ammunition left if they will live with 4% inflation. If stagflation takes hold the Fed will need to permit 4% inflation which will settle the markets. Do you count 4% inflation with 3% GDP growth stagflation? Debt crisis? The USA prints as much money as it "wants" every year increasing the debt. Will this come home to roost? Most likely at some point in the future but not 2023.

Senate passes $1.7 trillion government funding bill, teeing up House vote

The Senate passed a $1.7 trillion omnibus bill that funds all government agencies and the Pentagon for the next year. Now it heads to the House.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[BLADEMDA]

I like Gold for 2023 in terms of a catch up trade not for long term profit. Gold has underperformed the past few years and is due for a nice 10-15% pop in 2023. I view it a relatively low risk purchase because the price does not reflect current inflation for 2022 or 2023. Purely based on inflation Gold should be 10% higher.

I also like the Chip stocks for 2023. Longer term these are great investments especially 10% lower from here to begin a position. The time to buy these stocks is when they are out of favor IMHO. Also, internet security software looks very appealing as a sector in 2023. I like to buy beaten down sectors.

TESLA at $105? I'm in and I am not a TESLA fan. Tesla look s very interesting below $120 and I must admit I am tempted to buy shares below $120. The company is worth $250 per share.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I am going to list 5 security stocks (software/internet) and ask which ones you recommend? They are all super expensive based on P/e but I would like to own 1 or 2 because of the huge growth prospects:

1. FTNT
2. PANW
3. OKTA
4. ZS
5. CRWD

Jim Cramer says PANW is the best in class. I am leaning towards CRWD or PANW. Thoughts?

 

[BLADEMDA]

I like RH as a value play for 2023. Yes, the stock could go lower but I see a good entry point in 2023 if the market pulls back. Fast Money guys like the company and the stock. Opinion?

My favorite Growth stock for 2024 is Alphabet due to the reasonable P/E and growth potential. Thoughts? Karen Finerman loves Google.

Any thoughts on Target as a turn-around story for 2024? Great store not a great stock right now.

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[BLADEMDA]

I came across a few other high growth stocks and wanted opinions:

1. MRVL
2. NET
3. TEAM

Jim Cramer likes MRVL. I may initiate a position in 2023.

 

[Dr. Rude]

I am going to list 5 security stocks (software/internet) and ask which ones you recommend? They are all super expensive based on P/e but I would like to own 1 or 2 because of the huge growth prospects:

1. FTNT
2. PANW
3. OKTA
4. ZS
5. CRWD

Jim Cramer says PANW is the best in class. I am leaning towards CRWD or PANW. Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/CramerTracker

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Did you see the pork filled 1.7 Trillion budget being passed?

Yes I did. It's sickening, yet even worse, it's expected and we're all numb to it.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I also like the Chip stocks for 2023. Longer term these are great investments especially 10% lower from here to begin a position.

I hope a lot of people are looking to bargain hunt chip stocks. My view is that cyclical isn't particularly close to the bottom of the cycle in both price and length of time.

SOXS has been a welcome end of year piggy bank for me amidst the other batterings, and I will load up after every run up, including hopefully a relief rally run up next week. We'll have to see what happens.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I like RH as a value play for 2023. Yes, the stock could go lower but I see a good entry point in 2023 if the market pulls back. Fast Money guys like the company and the stock. Opinion?

My favorite Growth stock for 2024 is Alphabet due to the reasonable P/E and growth potential. Thoughts? Karen Finerman loves Google.

Any thoughts on Target as a turn-around story for 2024? Great store not a great stock right now.

I like Google better than most other mega-techs, but I don't like tech in general. Yes, tech will roar back eventually, doubtfully next year, maybe the following year, could be five or more years (Look at a lot of tech after the early 2000s meltdown).

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I like Gold for 2023 in terms of a catch up trade not for long term profit. Gold has underperformed the past few years and is due for a nice 10-15% pop in 2023. I view it a relatively low risk purchase because the price does not reflect current inflation for 2022 or 2023. Purely based on inflation Gold should be 10% higher.

I think the Fed will eventually crater to pressure to ease up based on the economy. Inflation will still be high, and lowering interest rates will accelerate inflation as well as pour gasoline on a gold fire 🔥

 

[anbuitachi]

I've been engulfed in this stuff lately and every single thing I conclude is big tech in particular is dead, another good year or two before capitulation. I own some big tech. I've decided I won't sell, DEFINITELY won't add any, and starting Monday am dropping my covered call strike prices way down very close to the current level of the stock. Still huge premiums when you are that close and I see minimal risk of losing those stocks in this environment.

I'll also continue to buy short etfs after every rally. Closed out of SOXS today at 36. Could have another few days of run but it hit my strike. Like I said, if that drops back to the low 30s I'm all over it.

My other long term longs will just sit there and keep getting clubbed unmercifully. Don't want to pay taxes yet.

disagree with big tech being dead...

its still a money printing machine. i dont know of any other compare that prints money like big tech. in fact i see this recession as a good way for tech to cut off some coasters. too many tech employees sit around and do nothing or a hr of work a day and get paid 700k.

google for the foreseeable future will still be printing money with their search engine. they will go down with recession, but will go up as well once we bounce back in a few years.

 

[BLADEMDA]

https://twitter.com/CramerTracker

Jim Cramer's show tonight said to AVOID the Big tech stocks as they will go down even more in 2023. By your logic, they will go up in 2023 (inverse Cramer).
Cramer gets a lot wrong and changes his mind very often depending on what the actual market does. I think his show is good for pointing out what the big money makers are buying/selling and where the trends are short term. Longer term, anything over 6-8 weeks, and you are on your own. I never use his Charts to decide where the market is heading as that's pure guess work.

I still think the Chip stocks bottom in 2023 but I have no idea when in 2023 they bottom. I am a buyer because longer term we need semiconductors for everything in our world.

ALPHABET is a strong buy at these levels and bigger buy 10% lower from here. Their market share is still holding and when the economy recovers that stock will bounce back significantly. If you don't own Alphabet, I do own some, I highly recommend this stock for long term investors. I also recommend a buying the better/best Chip stocks in 2023 for longer term investing. I would own several chip stocks to spread the risk.

 

[BLADEMDA]

As the stock market heads into 2023, here are some of the main valuation stories for investors to consider:

• Overall, U.S. stocks are off their cheapest levels, but are finishing 2022 at their most undervalued since March 2020.
• Stocks covered by Morningstar analysts have been this cheap for only 5% of the time in the last two decades.
• Small-cap and large-cap growth stocks are the most undervalued among equity style categories.
• Stocks without economic moats are cheaper than their wide- and narrow-moat counterparts.
• Communication services and consumer cyclicals are significantly undervalued, while utilities are slightly overvalued.
• Oil and gas companies, waste management stocks, and solar are the most overvalued industries.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Our fair value estimate is $160 per share, equivalent to a 2023 enterprise value/EBITDA ratio of 17. We expect margin pressure in 2023 given the firm’s aggressive hiring in 2022 and continued investments in growth initiatives. We look for margin improvement in 2024-26. Our model assumes a five-year compound annual growth rate of 13% for total revenue and a five-year average operating margin of 25.5%.

GOOGLE/ALPHABET

Market Summary > Alphabet Inc Class A
89.23 USD+1.47 (1.68%)today
Closed: Dec 23, 7:59 PM EST • Disclaimer
After hours 89.05 −0.18 (0.20%)

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Google for the foreseeable future will still be printing money with their search engine. they will go down with recession, but will go up as well once we bounce back in a few years.

In a few years... Yeah I didn't mean the medical definition of dead as in forever haha. Few years means we are in agreement it's dead money for quite a while.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Huge inflows of cash to JEPI ETF. This ETF sells covered calls against low volatility stocks in the S and P 500. Seems like a good strategy for 2023.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I love selling covered calls, and selling puts as well on stocks you would like to hold but feel are too expensive at their current price. The cash you can pull in selling options with these 2 methods typically blows away dividend yields. For people that don't fully understand, be comfortable knowing Warren Buffett does not engage in wild risky activity with stocks. Both are very conservative moves.

Be the casino! I love that.

 

[ambiturner]

As we approach the end of the year and in the interest of intellectual honesty, it's a nice time to look back on predictions and see if they came to fruition. Here was mine at the beginning of this thread, which looks pretty good:

…so the last thread got a bit off topic but the dip is deepening with potential for more this week with Tesla earnings coming out. Where is the bottom?

To me the past 2 years look eerily similar to the lead up to 70s stagflation. Will this be 1973?

However, there was another thread that got locked before this one (found here: https://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/stock-market-2022.1455479/) which makes me look a lot dumber, with the caveat that I said a Ukraine invasion would screw it all up. @Mman was pretty close to the mark!

Happy new year everybody! My financial predictions:
-S and P up but high inflation eating a lot of the return
-housing/cars/commodities continue to rocket up and frustrate millennials
-emerging markets/value unchanged, small cap up but underperforms
-Bitcoin hits 80k but not 100
-some NFT sells for >100 million
-the no surprises act decreases average anesthesiologist income

This all presupposes Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine and China doesn’t invade Taiwan, in which case all bets are off.

My investing behavior will not change as a result of these developments.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I don't think the Fed will let this become the 1970's. Also, US companies are in great shape in terms of cash/debt. This is a Fed induced recession which means the Fed can also get us out of it. What does 2023 hold for investors? I have no idea where the market goes from here but at some point we get a buyable dip which is a good thing. Do we end 2023 at 4100 or 3500? I have no idea but longer term like 2-3 years I am optimistic about US Stocks so I recommend you keep investing in them. You don't want to miss out on those few days where the market rallies big time so some degree of regular investments are required.

Bonds look like good investments again as part of a diversified portfolio as does EM/International. One can't stop investing because the market may, I stress may, have another down year. I find the best time to buy good equites are when things look bleak. I like it when the euphoria is removed from the market.

Bitcoin/Ethereum is pure speculation. I own some but have no expectations on what it is worth. Gold is safe-haven investment against fiat currencies. I doubt 2023 will be the year that the world sees the US Dollar for what it truly is because most of the other currencies are just as bad. I hold Gold as an insurance policy against the devaluation of the US dollar. As of today, that policy has yet to be worth much in terms of returns. But, that doesn't mean at some point in the future, countries no longer use the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

For the past 2+ decades I have used Morningstar to assist me with purchasing mutual funds, ETFs and stocks. That hasn't changed in 2022 and will continue into 2023. Based on their expert advice, we should be buying not selling in 2023 for the vast majority of stocks.

"There’s only been three times when valuations were as low as they are now: The pandemic crash of 2020, 2011′s eurozone crisis, and the global financial crisis of 2008." Morningstar.com

 

[BLADEMDA]