What if you are looking at specific specialties?
I'm entering school with an interest in surgery, if I have multiple acceptances, I'm going to pick based on:
a) Where I'll have the best shot of getting into a surgical residency. If a school has had no one match ortho for 5 years, then I'm probably not going to go there.
b) Board scores. Away rotations can make up for 'weaker' rotations at med school sites, but high board scores indicate that a school is good at preparing its students for step 1, which is important. I can probably get help from current mentors to get away rotations so that's good.
c) Looking at match lists is a good way to evaluate where kids go and what the school 'pushes' so to speak.
I have a feeling C is the least important because I kinda just made it up. BOOYAH!
A) While a 5 year history helps to eliminate some of the sample size bias, you're still at risk of having numbers that "look" poor for whatever surgical subset you're interested in, when really you're just looking at a few years where graduates simply weren't interested in that surgical subset. More useful is determining if the school actually
has a residency in that program. If they have a program, you've got a good shot of matching there, or at least in getting networked into that specialty.
B) Where are you getting board exam scores from? These are often difficult to find, or they come from secondhand sources with little credibility. Averages fluctuate between years, and the greatest indicator of performance is based on individual skill and preparation, not the preclinical curriculum. I would be more interested in my school's hospital's reputation in surgical subspecialties than I would be interested in what the previous years's board scores.
C) Looking at match lists is a curiosity at best. You look at the match list and see somebody matched at Yale for Orthopedic Surgery and that might be impressive to you; but if you asked that applicant, maybe it was his/her 9th choice on his/her list and is really unsatisfied.
Ultimately, my advice to undergraduate students on choosing a medical school is simple.
1) Choose the place where you feel that you will be happiest and most successful. Maybe this is because it is close to home or because it was an environment that you enjoyed when you visited. Your mental status, contentment, and happiness will determine your success more than anything.
2) When schools seem to be equally good options to you (or they are at least close), go with the less expensive school. Every time. The pressures of money can and will influence your choice of specialty. They can and will influence your choice of practice after residency. They can and will make huge influences on your options for your quality of life for the foreseeable future. Don't underestimate how much money 20k or 10k a years difference is by choosing a cheaper school.