MD & DO Supply of multiple specialties in Florida to exceed demand by 2025

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watermelon master

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http://safetynetsflorida.org/wp-content/uploads/Jan-28-IHS-Report-PDF.pdf

Should this be concerning for any of us medical students interested in specialties that will have a much greater supply than demand in 2025? For example, emergency medicine is supposed to have a supply of 3220 and a demand of 2520, or 127%. Can this be expected to mirror supply and demand on a national level? This goes against pretty much everything that we have heard, is that there is a terrible doctor shortage everywhere (except the most desirable areas).

Not surprisingly, Miami-Dade county has the most equal supply/demand ratios as well.

Some more examples below:
upload_2019-3-1_13-59-1.png

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Florida is a desirable place so you answered your own question.

Edit: That's why you accept that you might have a bad time if you want to practice somewhere with such large populations.

You'd be surprised how many opportunities are being wasted by all of y'all who want to practice on the coasts and in cities. My core site for 3rd year is in a city of 100,000 people only 2 hours from 3 major cities and is considered underserved because it's "rural". Docs here consistently make 1-2 standard deviations above the national mean for their specialties. One even showed me his taxes from last year and his gross income was $1.2 MILLION, and he's a general internist who sees 50 patients a day combined between in- and out-patient.
 
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You can essentially single-handedly thank HCA. They've opened a ridiculous amount of residencies within the past couple years alone in many many specialties. Welcome to the downfall of medicine!
 
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You can essentially single-handedly thank HCA. They've opened a ridiculous amount of residencies within the past couple years alone in many many specialties. Welcome to the downfall of medicine!

Can you elaborate and provide me a link to what you're talking about? Which specialties had the most residencies opened?
 
You can essentially single-handedly thank HCA. They've opened a ridiculous amount of residencies within the past couple years alone in many many specialties. Welcome to the downfall of medicine!

I suspect that people have been going on about the downfall of medicine since the 1970s. Yet here we are.
 
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Florida doesn’t even have the most physicians per capita
 
Couple this with the rapid growth of midlevels and just wait.
 
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Florida is a desirable place so you answered your own question.

Edit: That's why you accept that you might have a bad time if you want to practice somewhere with such large populations.

You'd be surprised how many opportunities are being wasted by all of y'all who want to practice on the coasts and in cities. My core site for 3rd year is in a city of 100,000 people only 2 hours from 3 major cities and is considered underserved because it's "rural". Docs here consistently make 1-2 standard deviations above the national mean for their specialties. One even showed me his taxes from last year and his gross income was $1.2 MILLION, and he's a general internist who sees 50 patients a day combined between in- and out-patient.

100,000 people?! "rural"??

My hometown has 2,300. Doc there bout to be on the Forbes billionaire list.
 
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Florida is a desirable place so you answered your own question.

Edit: That's why you accept that you might have a bad time if you want to practice somewhere with such large populations.

You'd be surprised how many opportunities are being wasted by all of y'all who want to practice on the coasts and in cities. My core site for 3rd year is in a city of 100,000 people only 2 hours from 3 major cities and is considered underserved because it's "rural". Docs here consistently make 1-2 standard deviations above the national mean for their specialties. One even showed me his taxes from last year and his gross income was $1.2 MILLION, and he's a general internist who sees 50 patients a day combined between in- and out-patient.

There is absolutely no way a general internist is making 1.2 million per year from seeing patients and showed you his tax return. That is an absurd notion.
 
There is absolutely no way a general internist is making 1.2 million per year from seeing patients and showed you his tax return. That is an absurd notion.

50 patients a day could theoretically do it in a rural area. Lets say hes getting 400k working hospitalist, week on week off. That leaves 800k to be made in 26 weeks, which comes out to about 5000 per weekday which is about 50 patients. I mean I don't know how he's seeing 50 patients but im sure it can be done if you sacrifice patient care a little or a lot. Maybe he's collecting some from midlevel supervision also.
 
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50 patients a day could theoretically do it in a rural area. Lets say hes getting 400k working hospitalist, week on week off. That leaves 800k to be made in 26 weeks, which comes out to about 5000 per weekday which is about 50 patients. I mean I don't know how he's seeing 50 patients but im sure it can be done if you sacrifice patient care a little or a lot. Maybe he's collecting some from midlevel supervision also.

No, it can’t. It’s impossible and it’s a lie.

If he is collecting that much from his own professional fees alone, crimes are being committed. Period.

I am in a highly compensated subspecialty in a rural area and will be making maybe 60-70% of that if I’m lucky as the highest compensated physician in the entire hospital.

Primary care? No way. Absolutely not. Not even close.

Primary care docs, feel free to chime in.
Can you make 1.2 million per year in a rural area?
 
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Nope. I totally believe the 50 pts/day for 700K-1.2 mil.

I have seen it myself on three separate occasions in three different specialties. All of them are by legal means without committing crimes.

I'm going to keep that fact to myself. It's up to you guys to go out there and figure out how it's done.
 
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No, it can’t. It’s impossible and it’s a lie.

If he is collecting that much from his own professional fees alone, crimes are being committed. Period.

I am in a highly compensated subspecialty in a rural area and will be making maybe 60-70% of that if I’m lucky as the highest compensated physician in the entire hospital.

Primary care? No way. Absolutely not. Not even close.

Primary care docs, feel free to chime in.
Can you make 1.2 million per year in a rural area?

It's possible if the dude does colonoscopy/EGD and cardiology consults/workups in that kind of setting. Take about 10-15 mins for each colonoscopy and EGD, and maybe 15-25 mins for a cards consult. I personally have seen a Internalist doing colonoscopy/EGD, Cards consult, TEE/Cardioeversion, stress test, and regular cards f/u visit in a rural setting.

Most primary care docs who make these kind of cashes don't go on sdn and talk about how they're banking it.
 
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100,000 people?! "rural"??

My hometown has 2,300. Doc there bout to be on the Forbes billionaire list.

Haha yea it's considered rural because even though it's close to major cities all of the surrounding areas for 20-30 miles is farmland and teeny tiny towns of like 500-1,000 people. All the physicians have their clinics in the small towns and then come to the city for their inpatient work.
 
No, it can’t. It’s impossible and it’s a lie.

If he is collecting that much from his own professional fees alone, crimes are being committed. Period.

I am in a highly compensated subspecialty in a rural area and will be making maybe 60-70% of that if I’m lucky as the highest compensated physician in the entire hospital.

Primary care? No way. Absolutely not. Not even close.

Primary care docs, feel free to chime in.
Can you make 1.2 million per year in a rural area?

can think it's a lie if you want but I saw them with my own eyes and I rotated with him, so I saw first-hand his workload. I'm not some secret agent working to get people out to rural clinics.

He's been at it for 30 years and has somehow managed to efficiently and effectively see 20-30 inpatients, plus his outpatient clinic, plus the supervising physician for a nursing home. His secret is that he somehow hasn't slowed down and works 15-20 hour days 6 days a week. Add that to the increased compensation of working in a "rural" area and you make obscene amounts of money. I thought the part about actually showing me his income was odd but it was his way of saying "you should all stay here and work".

His wife is happy with the money but isn't happy about being home alone all the time.
 
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can think it's a lie if you want but I saw them with my own eyes and I rotated with him, so I saw first-hand his workload. I'm not some secret agent working to get people out to rural clinics.

He's been at it for 30 years and has somehow managed to efficiently and effectively see 20-30 inpatients, plus his outpatient clinic, plus the supervising physician for a nursing home. His secret is that he somehow hasn't slowed down and works 15-20 hour days 6 days a week. Add that to the increased compensation of working in a "rural" area and you make obscene amounts of money. I thought the part about actually showing me his income was odd but it was his way of saying "you should all stay here and work".

His wife is happy with the money but isn't happy about being home alone all the time.

A lot of specialties make a ton of money in rural areas, medicine included. I mean 20-30 inpatients isn't that bad, as a resident, you see/examine your patients and then round on them. That takes like 2 hours. As an attending alone, its much faster. 20-30 inpatients done by noon. Outpatient clinic can be done in afternoon, and supervising physician for NH doesn't have to be there much. Im surrpised hes working 15-20 hrs a day, unless his outpatient clinic is extremely busy.
 
http://safetynetsflorida.org/wp-content/uploads/Jan-28-IHS-Report-PDF.pdf

Should this be concerning for any of us medical students interested in specialties that will have a much greater supply than demand in 2025? For example, emergency medicine is supposed to have a supply of 3220 and a demand of 2520, or 127%. Can this be expected to mirror supply and demand on a national level? This goes against pretty much everything that we have heard, is that there is a terrible doctor shortage everywhere (except the most desirable areas).

Not surprisingly, Miami-Dade county has the most equal supply/demand ratios as well.

Some more examples below:
View attachment 252503

doesn't look accurate unless florida is simply super saturated. a lot of these reports are BS. at least in the country, EM doesn't even seem close to becoming saturated, thats why its a super hot field now. Radiology was very saturated a few years ago but its looking better again.
 
doesn't look accurate unless florida is simply super saturated. a lot of these reports are BS. at least in the country, EM doesn't even seem close to becoming saturated, thats why its a super hot field now. Radiology was very saturated a few years ago but its looking better again.
What supports your assertion that this isn't accurate and a lot of these reports are BS?
 
What supports your assertion that this isn't accurate and a lot of these reports are BS?

it's indirect. when you see a few years ago that radiologists are unable to find jobs, and that salary was tanking cause people were willing to work for anything over being unemployed, you know supply >= demand. it's pretty simple and has more real life effect that looking at these numbers. They can report a shortage all they want but if you go out and there are no jobs, does it matter what the report says?
Meanwhile, look at the # of available jobs in the EM industry, and the salaries that they are getting, and you know they are still short.

Basically what happens is leaving insurance reimbursement aside, looking at how easy it is to get a job and what salaries they are getting gives you a good picture of supply vs demand.
 
it's indirect. when you see a few years ago that radiologists are unable to find jobs, and that salary was tanking cause people were willing to work for anything over being unemployed, you know supply >= demand. it's pretty simple and has more real life effect that looking at these numbers. They can report a shortage all they want but if you go out and there are no jobs, does it matter what the report says?
Meanwhile, look at the # of available jobs in the EM industry, and the salaries that they are getting, and you know they are still short.

Basically what happens is leaving insurance reimbursement aside, looking at how easy it is to get a job and what salaries they are getting gives you a good picture of supply vs demand.
You're looking at the NOW. This report is outlining a trend that says this will happen by 2025. Florida is opening up tons of EM residencies (increase in physicians), Florida's population is increasing (more doctors moving to Florida) which means less spots. I still can't take you for your word unless you've given some sort of proof that "these reports are BS"
 
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You're looking at the NOW. This report is outlining a trend that says this will happen by 2025. Florida is opening up tons of EM residencies (increase in physicians), Florida's population is increasing (more doctors moving to Florida) which means less spots. I still can't take you for your word unless you've given some sort of proof that "these reports are BS"

im looking at the now, because it includes 2013 data. if the 2013 data isnt even reliable, why would i believe the 2025 data. again Florida could be completely different. A ton of residencies is fine, but how many urgent cares are popping up? just in my area there were like 5 that opened up (but im not in florida)
 
there is also something called supply induced demand in healthcare specialties.
 
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Don't forget these studies assume that current demand = supply. In other words, for this study they assume that in 2013 demand for physicians perfectly equaled supply. Obviously this is completely wrong since we've been in a physician shortage for decades and it makes a potential oversupply of physicians look much scarier than it actually is.
 
This study also asserts that Current Supply if EM docs in Florida outstrips demand (2300 > 2150). That’s an absurd notion - there’s EDs all over the state constantly hiring, and an aging population here that uses a remarkable amount of healthcare per capita compared to elsewhere in the country.

I’ve lived in Florida all my life (Naples, Everglades City, Ft Lauderdale, now Miami) and I can assure you it will be a cold day in hell before the state as a whole is saturdated. Miami, the most desirable city is the state isn’t saturated for any field other than maybe plastics lol.

My good friend is a GI attending in Weston - her waiting list is 18 months long! It would be longer but her Epic calendar literally doesn’t go further out.

While theoretically it’s possible for the market here to saturate with enough new grads and a decrease in migrating old folks, I just don’t see it being realistic.
 
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there is also something called supply induced demand in healthcare specialties.


In my first job out of residency, there was a pair of OB/gyns who did 5 hysterectomies every Wednesday. Like clockwork. Hmmm.
 
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