surgery 12-20 years from now?

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.

poppie910

Full Member
10+ Year Member
Joined
Dec 16, 2011
Messages
95
Reaction score
0
Obviously no one can foresee into the future, but where do you residents/attending, etc see surgery being in 10 years and beyond? Specifically when it comes to demand for new surgeons? Considering if I get through med school and residency it'll be at least 12 yrs, since im just a freshmen. Im particularly interested in ortho and em. Also, I know that many doctors are already losing money due to insurance not paying out, etc.. so do you see surgeons still being able to earn 200k plus annually? If not, where do you think med school tuition rates will go?
Pardon my ignorance, but this is a concern of mine. Any feedback is appreciated. THANK YOU. :)

Members don't see this ad.
 
Obviously no one can foresee into the future, but where do you residents/attending, etc see surgery being in 10 years and beyond? Specifically when it comes to demand for new surgeons? Considering if I get through med school and residency it'll be at least 12 yrs, since im just a freshmen. Im particularly interested in ortho and em. Also, I know that many doctors are already losing money due to insurance not paying out, etc.. so do you see surgeons still being able to earn 200k plus annually? If not, where do you think med school tuition rates will go?
Pardon my ignorance, but this is a concern of mine. Any feedback is appreciated. THANK YOU. :)

First, don't pick a specialty before you actually get a few years into med school. A lot of fields sound cool until you get to the wards and have to do them 80 hours per week. Many things you think youll like you hate and many things you thnk youll hate, youll like. In many cases you are going to be significantly influenced by various personalities in the field as well -- if you don't gel with the guys in ENT, its probably not a viable choice. So your question is pretty moot.

Second, most freshmen premeds don't end up med students. You should keep your eyes open for what career makes the most sense for you, because just because being premed sounds like a good idea as a freshman doesn't mean you wont be among the 90% who get weeded out or quit along the way. It's not for everyone. It's probably a career choice you should make after considering a lot of alternatives that don't involve the same life and time committments.

Third, fields change, and it would be speculative to suggest which fields will be hot or not in a dozen years. And how pay structures will work in a world of government imposed healthcare plans. Best not to have a specific target income you need to earn a dozen years out.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
First, don't pick a specialty before you actually get a few years into med school. A lot of fields sound cool until you get to the wards and have to do them 80 hours per week. Many things you think youll like you hate and many things you thnk youll hate, youll like. In many cases you are going to be significantly influenced by various personalities in the field as well -- if you don't gel with the guys in ENT, its probably not a viable choice. So your question is pretty moot.

Second, most freshmen premeds don't end up med students. You should keep your eyes open for what career makes the most sense for you, because just because being premed sounds like a good idea as a freshman doesn't mean you wont be among the 90% who get weeded out or quit along the way. It's not for everyone. It's probably a career choice you should make after considering a lot of alternatives that don't involve the same life and time committments.

Third, fields change, and it would be speculative to suggest which fields will be hot or not in a dozen years. And how pay structures will work in a world of government imposed healthcare plans. Best not to have a specific target income you need to earn a dozen years out.

I think the 90% thing applies to the dudes who are of average intelligence and can't pull off As if their life depended on it. Most people I've known who were actually smart all ended up in med *somewhere* , but I also knew lots of people who were "pre meds" and not smart at all, who didn't get anywhere close. Depends which side you're on, and most often it shows after 1st semester's first mid terms.
 
I think the 90% thing applies to the dudes who are of average intelligence and can't pull off As if their life depended on it. Most people I've known who were actually smart all ended up in med *somewhere* , but I also knew lots of people who were "pre meds" and not smart at all, who didn't get anywhere close. Depends which side you're on, and most often it shows after 1st semester's first mid terms.
I have no idea what you're talking about... And the only part I understood was your last sentence which has absolutely no relevance. Basing a career choice off your very first semester's very first tests is not exactly a well-thought out, well-planned choice...

Paycut or not, unless schools lower standards, there's always going to be a need for doctors... and it's going to be pretty hard to saturate a market when this is a matter of life and death. So really, being a doctor is just a matter of firm, self-thought choice. Job security with decent to great pay will most likely be there.
 
I understand that im a LONG way out, but I am intelligent enough and I have my mind SET on medicine. Have for several years now. I am a non trad who is 26yrs old, so I've delved into quite a few other job fields. I am positive that I want to pursue this, so I won't be scared away...

Neveretheless, prowler, its not just about "getting that money" per se. However, if im looking at 250k plus of debt out of school, I want to be in the position to not be balls deep for the rest of my life ya know?
 
I think the 90% thing applies to the dudes who are of average intelligence and can't pull off As if their life depended on it. Most people I've known who were actually smart all ended up in med *somewhere* , but I also knew lots of people who were "pre meds" and not smart at all, who didn't get anywhere close. Depends which side you're on, and most often it shows after 1st semester's first mid terms.


Strongly, strongly disagree with you here. I got straight Cs on my 1st semester's midterms, and I'll be starting next August.

There are many more factors that contribute to not doing well on first semester midterms than capability. Social life, college adjustments, girlfriends, other misc. distractions, etc.
 
I have no idea what you're talking about... And the only part I understood was your last sentence which has absolutely no relevance. Basing a career choice off your very first semester's very first tests is not exactly a well-thought out, well-planned choice...

Paycut or not, unless schools lower standards, there's always going to be a need for doctors... and it's going to be pretty hard to saturate a market when this is a matter of life and death. So really, being a doctor is just a matter of firm, self-thought choice. Job security with decent to great pay will most likely be there.
I was only talking about how saying 90% of freshmen pre meds dont make it, is inaccurate if analyzed properly.
 
Strongly, strongly disagree with you here. I got straight Cs on my 1st semester's midterms, and I'll be starting next August.

There are many more factors that contribute to not doing well on first semester midterms than capability. Social life, college adjustments, girlfriends, other misc. distractions, etc.
Congrats, you're an exception. most people who bomb their first mid terms usually end up bombing 1st semester... and tend to slightly give up... leading to a bomb 2nd semester. confidence is then gone, and so is the gpa.
 
Obviously no one can foresee into the future, but where do you residents/attending, etc see surgery being in 10 years and beyond? Specifically when it comes to demand for new surgeons? Considering if I get through med school and residency it'll be at least 12 yrs, since im just a freshmen. Im particularly interested in ortho and em. Also, I know that many doctors are already losing money due to insurance not paying out, etc.. so do you see surgeons still being able to earn 200k plus annually? If not, where do you think med school tuition rates will go?
Pardon my ignorance, but this is a concern of mine. Any feedback is appreciated. THANK YOU. :)

10 years from now, robots are going to be doing surgery.
 
Congrats, you're an exception. most people who bomb their first mid terms usually end up bombing 1st semester... and tend to slightly give up... leading to a bomb 2nd semester. confidence is then gone, and so is the gpa.

I don't see myself giving up if I don't do exceptional after just one semester. Seems as though someone who would do thatwould not possess much "heart", and not be very driven. That being said, I don't plan on "bombing" any semester lol.

Danlee07, you're second paragraph is inspirational. :)
 
10 years from now, robots are going to be doing surgery.

I've been reading that some robotics are being brought into the field of medicine, but I refuse to believe they will take reign over the humans..... that sounded like something out of terminator, but its what I feel, and what I HOPE will not come to fruition. Because, well, I wanna be a doctor dammit! :)
 
10 years from now, robots are going to be doing surgery.
Anyone who has even used a computer, or any other electronic device, realizes that a set of human hands will always have to be there to either guide/control the robot (near future for sure) or take over if a self-guided robot runs into a problem (for the entire foreseeable future). Surgery as a specialty is going to be changing, and has changed a lot already, but it isn't going anywhere any time soon.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
I was only talking about how saying 90% of freshmen pre meds dont make it, is inaccurate if analyzed properly.

90% of freshmen who claim to be premeds won't end up in med school. I'm not analyzing at all -- that's simply the approximate numbers. Premed is a very popular designation in the abstract. Before you actually get to the harder courses, the requirements the MCAT, or thinking about whether you will even like being a doctor after you get exposed to other things. We don't really have any data to allow us to determine whether the OP is in the 10%. Basically I'm saying a freshman who says he's premed is about as meaningful as a waiter in Hollywood claiming he's going to be a big movie star someday. Most of the time it doesn't happen. Now and then it does.
 
Surgeons will be around for a long, long, long, long awhile. There are tons and tons of conditions that need operated on. Robotics is going to have the biggest impact in urology and ob/gyn because they provide 90 degree angle working view which isn't needed much in any surgical field outside of uro and ob.

And surgeons will still be able to earn 200K plus very easily in the future. PAs, NPs, and all the other alphabet soup wannabes will be more apparent and present in bigger numbers....

...but at the end of the day, a SURGEON will still be needed to run the OR. Make no mistake about it.
 
Surgeons will be around for a long, long, long, long awhile. There are tons and tons of conditions that need operated on. Robotics is going to have the biggest impact in urology and ob/gyn because they provide 90 degree angle working view which isn't needed much in any surgical field outside of uro and ob.

And surgeons will still be able to earn 200K plus very easily in the future. PAs, NPs, and all the other alphabet soup wannabes will be more apparent and present in bigger numbers....

...but at the end of the day, a SURGEON will still be needed to run the OR. Make no mistake about it.

I think the question isn't whether there will still need to be surgeons, but whether they will need as many of them with improvements in technology and increase of midlevels. And if the economy stays bad so the fogeys stop retiring. In a number of specialties, eg path, rads, the fact that people aren't retiring anymore is creating issues for residency and fellowship grads in finding jobs. For now the salaries have stayed up, while the jobs in popular locations have dwindled. But eventually someone will realize that since there are more boarded people out there than jobs, they can start paying lower salaries and still fill the spots with good people. This kind of impact could happen with any field, including surgery. So just because there will always be sick people who always need surgeons, let's not kid ourselves that the economy, midlevels, technology, and ease of practicing into your golden years doesn't play a huge role.
 
I think the question isn't whether there will still need to be surgeons, but whether they will need as many of them with improvements in technology and increase of midlevels. And if the economy stays bad so the fogeys stop retiring. In a number of specialties, eg path, rads, the fact that people aren't retiring anymore is creating issues for residency and fellowship grads in finding jobs. For now the salaries have stayed up, while the jobs in popular locations have dwindled. But eventually someone will realize that since there are more boarded people out there than jobs, they can start paying lower salaries and still fill the spots with good people. This kind of impact could happen with any field, including surgery. So just because there will always be sick people who always need surgeons, let's not kid ourselves that the economy, midlevels, technology, and ease of practicing into your golden years doesn't play a huge role.

Isn't that why the number of residency spots have stayed almost constant while the population, i.e. number of patients, gone up in the last 15-20 years?
 
Isn't that why the number of residency spots have stayed almost constant while the population, i.e. number of patients, gone up in the last 15-20 years?
LOL, that assessment is giving politicians credit for a ton of logical insight to which they are not worthy. I guarantee the politicians who haven't acted in increase residency funding for the past couple decades have not been guided by a careful analysis of whether the need for doctors will continue to grow over the coming decades due to technological advancements. Rather, their decisions are guided by political infighting, cronyism and an attempt to keep as many votes as possible lined up for the next election. Much of the encroachment of mid-levels into territory traditionally reserved for physicians is because the supply of doctors has not risen as quickly as the demand, not the other way around.
 
Isn't that why the number of residency spots have stayed almost constant while the population, i.e. number of patients, gone up in the last 15-20 years?

I agree with the prior poster that politicians didn't decide this out of insight. It was decided because residency spots cost money, and as healthcare costs skyrocket, it's not popular Fr a politician seeking popular votes to allocate additional money to training rich doctors at the expense of the poor taxpayer, it's a simplistic approach, not insight.
 
This is something to evaluate at the end of your 3rd year of med school. Surgeons will always be needed for conditions that require surgery. Robots cannot replace surgeons, only those that help in the OR... a surgeon still has to run the robot.
 
This is something to evaluate at the end of your 3rd year of med school. Surgeons will always be needed for conditions that require surgery. Robots cannot replace surgeons, only those that help in the OR... a surgeon still has to run the robot.

But how would surgeons survive mentally without medical students to help!
 
General surgeons will deal with older, sicker, fatter patients and work more hours for less pay. Thats the future. As an added incentive, there is an exploding population of future gastric cripples who have undergone gastric obesity surgery who you will have to manage their abdominal pain, marginal ulcers, pancreatitis, malnutrition, bowel obstructions/ leaks, revisions from regained weight, etc who you will be stuck dealing with their littany of complications and complaints that the surgeons before you have left behind after they pocketed the quick easy $$$$ doing the initial procedure. Good times.
 
Basically I'm saying a freshman who says he's premed is about as meaningful as a waiter in Hollywood claiming he's going to be a big movie star someday. Most of the time it doesn't happen. Now and then it does.

For the record, I never claimed to be a "freshmen pre-med." However, I am going to work all the prerequisites to become one. ;)

Thanks for all of the insight you guys. I like where this thread is going.
 
Second, most freshmen premeds don't end up med students. You should keep your eyes open for what career makes the most sense for you, because just because being premed sounds like a good idea as a freshman doesn't mean you wont be among the 90% who get weeded out or quit along the way. It's not for everyone. It's probably a career choice you should make after considering a lot of alternatives that don't involve the same life and time committments.

Depends which side you're on, and most often it shows after 1st semester's first mid terms.

college-freshman-meme-generator-first-semester-pre-med-second-semester-communications-6b8ab2.jpg


If I had a nickel for every time I witnessed this phenomenon....
 
I also tend to wonder about the effect robotics mihgt have on surgery. What if they get things that can do this stuff better than we can? This probably isn't a 10 year thing, but who knows what could happen in 30 years.
 
college-freshman-meme-generator-first-semester-pre-med-second-semester-communications-6b8ab2.jpg


If I had a nickel for every time I witnessed this phenomenon....

So if I may, to those of you who are condescending towards freshmen aspiring to be doctors, what were YOU interested in as a freshman??
 
So if I may, to those of you who are condescending towards freshmen aspiring to be doctors, what were YOU interested in as a freshman??
I remember a certain day...back when I was a freshman. I was very upset that day. I was very upset that day because I could never become a banker. And that failure to become a banker was eating at me. Eating-eating-eating at me inside.

Well, my father, when I was a kid, he took me to the bank and he lifted me up and he pointed to the teller and he said: 'Sonny boy, take a good look at him, that's gonna be you some day.'

Years later, these feelings of inadequacy and hopelessness culminated in an experience that could have ended in a tragedy...if it weren't for my old friend, who even got a speeding ticket in his eagerness to prevent said tragedy.
 
Last edited:
90% of freshmen who claim to be premeds won't end up in med school. I'm not analyzing at all -- that's simply the approximate numbers. Premed is a very popular designation in the abstract. Before you actually get to the harder courses, the requirements the MCAT, or thinking about whether you will even like being a doctor after you get exposed to other things. We don't really have any data to allow us to determine whether the OP is in the 10%. Basically I'm saying a freshman who says he's premed is about as meaningful as a waiter in Hollywood claiming he's going to be a big movie star someday. Most of the time it doesn't happen. Now and then it does.
:thumbup::thumbup:
 
I remember a certain day...back when I was a freshman. I was very upset that day. I was very upset that day because I could never become a banker. And that failure to become a banker was eating at me. Eating-eating-eating at me inside.

Well, my father, when I was a kid, he took me to the bank and he lifted me up and he pointed to the teller and he said: 'Sonny boy, take a good look at him, that's gonna be you some day.'

Years later, these feelings of inadequacy and hopelessness culminated in an experience that could have ended in a tragedy...if it weren't for my old friend, who even got a speeding ticket in his eagerness to prevent said tragedy.

Hmmm.... so anyway....
 
I think the 90% thing applies to the dudes who are of average intelligence and can't pull off As if their life depended on it. Most people I've known who were actually smart all ended up in med *somewhere* , but I also knew lots of people who were "pre meds" and not smart at all, who didn't get anywhere close. Depends which side you're on, and most often it shows after 1st semester's first mid terms.
Most college students could get As if they truly wanted them. It's not about intelligence: it's about motivation.

I understand that im a LONG way out, but I am intelligent enough and I have my mind SET on medicine. Have for several years now. I am a non trad who is 26yrs old, so I've delved into quite a few other job fields. I am positive that I want to pursue this, so I won't be scared away...

Neveretheless, prowler, its not just about "getting that money" per se. However, if im looking at 250k plus of debt out of school, I want to be in the position to not be balls deep for the rest of my life ya know?
I wouldn't worry about counting your chickens before they've hatched when you don't even have eggs. Picking specialties before starting med school is just silly.

Strongly, strongly disagree with you here. I got straight Cs on my 1st semester's midterms, and I'll be starting next August.
I would hope you'd realize that's not exactly typical.

I was only talking about how saying 90% of freshmen pre meds dont make it, is inaccurate if analyzed properly.
No.

General surgeons will deal with older, sicker, fatter patients and work more hours for less pay. Thats the future. As an added incentive, there is an exploding population of future gastric cripples who have undergone gastric obesity surgery who you will have to manage their abdominal pain, marginal ulcers, pancreatitis, malnutrition, bowel obstructions/ leaks, revisions from regained weight, etc who you will be stuck dealing with their littany of complications and complaints that the surgeons before you have left behind after they pocketed the quick easy $$$$ doing the initial procedure. Good times.
Yeah, I definitely wonder about that...

So if I may, to those of you who are condescending towards freshmen aspiring to be doctors, what were YOU interested in as a freshman??
Don't be so sensitive. We're not being condescending. You're just looking further ahead than is necessary or even possible.
 
Understood prowler. I want to start acquiring the aforementioned "eggs", so that I can speak on topics with somewhat of a level of legitimacy. Lol. Thx, and btw. I enjoy reading your posts. Definitely one of my favorite sdn'ers. Thank you. :)
 
The important take-home point is that you NOT go into medical school with the idea that you will be only happy if you can get into <blank> specialty, unless you already have a fair amount of experience in that field, and it's something non-competitive, like internal medicine or pediatrics.
 
A lot of people who are first year pre-med have done some work experience already for example: some of them worked and got a career in the medical field and they ended up liking it, hence the reason why go to college and work their way into medical school. I'm 22 and since I knew I wont be getting any financial aid because of my parents and I'm under 24/not married/dont have a baby, I did my CNA certificate first and my EMT training that way I will be able to support myself for a bit, get experience in the medical field and not earn minimum wage while I work my way up to med school. Oh ****, I'm not making any sense lol To make it short, I'm just saying that I know a lot of pre-meds dont make it because they never had any experience related to medical field.
 
Strongly, strongly disagree with you here. I got straight Cs on my 1st semester's midterms, and I'll be starting next August.

There are many more factors that contribute to not doing well on first semester midterms than capability. Social life, college adjustments, girlfriends, other misc. distractions, etc.

Agreed. I withdrew from Bio 101 my first semester because of a tragically failing 40% overall I had 3/4 way through the course.

Yet, here I am halfway through my 3rd year in med school...
 
I remember a certain day...back when I was a freshman. I was very upset that day. I was very upset that day because I could never become a banker. And that failure to become a banker was eating at me. Eating-eating-eating at me inside.

Well, my father, when I was a kid, he took me to the bank and he lifted me up and he pointed to the teller and he said: 'Sonny boy, take a good look at him, that's gonna be you some day.'

Years later, these feelings of inadequacy and hopelessness culminated in an experience that could have ended in a tragedy...if it weren't for my old friend, who even got a speeding ticket in his eagerness to prevent said tragedy.


HAHAHAHAHA:laugh:

Idk if I keep coming to these boards for the insight or for the seinfeld references.:thumbup:
 
So if I may, to those of you who are condescending towards freshmen aspiring to be doctors, what were YOU interested in as a freshman??

I wanted to be an Astronaut. In fact, I wanted to be not only the first man to set foot on Mars, but the first man to have a baby in space. Obviously, my dreams have not been fulfilled, hence my settling on Medicine.
 
A lot of people who are first year pre-med have done some work experience already for example: some of them worked and got a career in the medical field and they ended up liking it, hence the reason why go to college and work their way into medical school. I'm 22 and since I knew I wont be getting any financial aid because of my parents and I'm under 24/not married/dont have a baby, I did my CNA certificate first and my EMT training that way I will be able to support myself for a bit, get experience in the medical field and not earn minimum wage while I work my way up to med school. Oh ****, I'm not making any sense lol To make it short, I'm just saying that I know a lot of pre-meds dont make it because they never had any experience related to medical field.


I disagree. I have NO prior medical field training/occupations, but I still know in my heart that I want to pursue this. Nor do I believe that not being an emt, etc will put me at a disadvantage.

Cannon, if taking sixty seconds out of your day to rebut my previous post w/ such an immature and utterly useless response made you feel better about yourself, then im very happy for you. :)

And prowler, I value your advice. I am keeping my viewpoints open on all specialties of medicine until I get to the point where im in a position to decide. But I have a strong feeling as to the ones I will lean towards.
 
Last edited:
Top