I would say that you could "technically" try to make it through probation - it has been offered to you as an option - but the chances you make it through are so slim, it just isn't going to happen. You're better off now taking a pathway that might avoid probation, which will essentially mar your physician employment history forever while offering you no chance of benefit.
(it depends, not all probation is reported by your program to your medical board, is what I've read here. I feel I've seen more situations where it was. I don't know what governing body makes the rules on this - if it is specialty dependent, program dependent, GME, ACGME, or medical board that has requirements about when probation is reported vs when it can stay a within-the-institution process. If this is just part of a process to secure a tight termination on you, then I highly suspect it will be reported, but I'm speculating there. Siccing the medical board on you, is a multistep process that is DEFINITELY one strategy for forcing a resignation or termination.)
(and when I say mar, probation isn't career ending by any means, or typically even a big barrier to licensing/credentialing/obtaining positions depending on context, but it is something that is reported/shared when you apply for much of these things, and it can add extra steps as it can prompt more questions and investigating into circumstances.)
So, probation does nothing good for you unless it is a path to staying with your program.
It is not a path to staying with your program, because the PD basically came out and said so, when they recommended against it. Why? Probably because of all of the above, they know this.
A PD once told me this, using their hands for effect:
Even if during your probation you improve, your rate of improvement of performance, which all residents have as they grow towards the necessary performance for the end of the year, even if it comes up to match that of your peers, may still leave you at the end of the year below what is needed for you to continue to PGY(X+1). There is of course a range of performances that are acceptable, some residents are rockstars and some are just barely good enough. But everyone has to be in that range.
Many struggling residents, and it depends on the nature of the struggle, can improve their rate of improvement during their probation, especially with attention and effort from without. But often that rate still doesn't approximate that of their peers, and the net effect is to still fall behind. You need to get your rate of improvement either higher than your peers to play catch up, or whatever you get it to, must be enough to get into "minimally acceptable" even if you still comparatively are weak.
Mostly what the program cares about is how safely you can be trained during the year, how does that impact patient care and the training of your peers, and can they get you ready for promotion. If they don't think they can pull it off, they can't remediate more months at the end of the year or have you repeat, then they will likely terminate you after probation, or they might not renew at the end of the year.
The fact the PD doesn't want you to do probation, as well as others, basically tells me that they think you will be where the above graph shows.
The above graph demonstrates why earnest probation intervention is started as early as possible. I won't get into the numbers game of why it is that by around Oct that is where PDs get really serious about lining people up for the ax as well. Basically, now really is the time for them to figure out what they're going to do about residents they do see getting where they want when they want.
Lastly, the other factor that makes successful probation difficult, has to do with perception. I don't know to what degree all of this relates to your actual weaknesses, and what part of this is how others are perceiving your performance. There is always some degree of the latter at work, no matter how bad or good the resident actually is.
Coming back around, taking the probation is risky because:
1) What are the chances that you improve to that of your peers at minimum, or even higher?
2) What are the chances that you are able to convince everyone around you of this?
3) What are the chances when the program director has basically come out and said that their current opinion as of now, is that with your performance, it's not even worth the try, that they will change their opinion? Especially when they are indicating they don't think you should be a surgeon
at all??
4) What are the chances you can convince enough of the people evaluating you, to change their opinion?
Basically, the chances that you can actually improve enough to change all this, or that having done so everyone will do a 180 opinion on you, within 2-3 months, is so low, that all probation will do is help them checkbox a termination on you, leaving you will ZERO options. As of now, you have some options.
OK, just reread your OP. The program is actually trying to help you. They are giving you the pathway to complete the year and voluntarily resign. This is the least damaging to your career on paper.
They are essentially giving you the option of "go by "choice" quietly and with no recourses annoying to the program like appeal, suing, etc, or go through probation which will leave a more damaging paper trail, and you still end up gone.
It could be taken as a sign you want to fight this, and you can't.
Even if you agree to resign at the end of the year, I don't know that it means that if by some hope and a prayer you are able to 180 this, that they couldn't put renewal back on the table. But you are being told not to plan for that.
I would go to the program and essentially throw myself at their feet. Say that you are open to resigning, but you are committed 100% to being a clinician in any field they would be willing to support you in, your preference being GS or rads, but you are open to others. How can you earn the best reference possible to continue your clinical career? Where can they see you succeeding and be willing to support you? Make it clear that no matter what happens, you are committed to being the best possible resident for the rest of your time there, and you are sorry that your performance has not been better, and that no matter what you will stay committed to improvement.
People don't realize, how much your conduct AFTER getting in trouble or being totally on your way out of a program, matters. Just because it's not going the way you hoped, doesn't mean that hard work and good opinions cannot be obtained and poise you for a comeback in your career elsewhere. In fact, hardwork and grace under such conditions can earn you the respect and help you need to go on elsewhere.
I think you need to forget about any plan that your program does not support, unless you think they are malicious AND you think you can try to get a transfer somewhere on your own, which is unlikely and might make a decent situation where they help you for next year, go bad. If transfer is out, and it likely is, then you need to dedicate your life to getting another position somewhere for next year. Which means dedicating yourself to getting help from your program.
Any attendings on your side that might have a good word for you to another program? Having nice LORs from them and even a lukewarm (not damning one) from your PD can help make another position a reality. Network with those attendings and anyone that supported you in med school. Friends at other programs.
There is a delicate way to say that with the help of your program to obtain another position they think is appropriate for you, you feel more comfortable voluntarily resigning and seeing through the year to the best of your ability. As aPD said, you can try to feel out what positives and negatives they might speak to in an LOR to another program, so you can continue to improve on that and be better poised to succeed.
Some might think this is riskier, but you could ask that you be able to see what such a letter would look like before signing your resignation letter. This might be a better move to do after agreeing to a resignation but before signing. At that point they may be feeling more generous in that last little push to getting that signature. This may be the point to have an employment attorney help you behind the scenes, or once you get there, in looking over the resignation paperwork and the negotiation about the letter. Sometimes both sides sign an NDA (non-disclosure agreement) about how all of this went down, beyond what is negotiated to be acceptable to say to a 3rd party.
This gets into pro/cons of how much to control the fallout and separation of a resident from their program.
I know that some residents go down this pathway, and piss off their programs and possibly make things worse. Other times, things can go more smoothly and less impersonally for everyone, while allowing the resident some degree of image control as they cooperate with a program. Other times, people rely on the "good word" to their face from their program, only to be sabotaged later as there was no binding agreement.
Yes, this can be done, that is fact. However, I can't say if it is a good idea in this case or not.
