Relatively Prime has sort of addressed this on the Hopkins rejection thread, but I want to throw in my two cents:
How many times on this board have we read some variant of the following: "Yeah, you may have above average MCAT scores, but it's nothing to get excited about because top schools could easily fill their entire classes with 4.0 and 40+ MCATs."
or this: "Don't worry to much about your below average MCAT scores. Top schools could easily fill their entire classes with 4.0 and 40+ MCATs, but we know the average stats for accepted students are lower than that so it must mean that top schools care more about the 'total package.'"
Judging from the 2003-2004 MSAR, there are not that many 40+ MCAT scorers. I used a ruler and the graph on page 27 titled MCAT Total Numeric Score Distribution, Year 2001 Applicants to estimate the number of people with each score. I think there are only about 184 people with scores of 40 or greater, a number which would barely fill the class at Harvard.
Here's a list with the score, my estimate of the number of applicants with that score, and my estimate of the number of applicants with that score who are accepted.
Score/ # Applicants/ # Accepted
42 / 26 / 26
41 / 53 / 53
40 / 105 / 105
39 / 211 / 211
38 / 395 / 316
37 / 579 / 474
36 / 711 / 579
35 / 974 / 789
34 / 1368 / 1105
33 / 1684 / 1237
32 / 2026 / 1421
31 / 2395 / 1658
30 / 2474 / 1632
For comparison, the top 5 schools based on US News enroll 648 first year students. If they filled their classes based solely on MCAT scores, the lowest MCAT accepted would be 38. The top 10 schools take 1388 students, and the lowest MCAT they would have to take to fill their classes would be 36. For the top 20 schools, which enroll 2697 first years, they would have to take people with at least a 35 and some with a 34. Finally, for the top 30 schools, which enroll a total of 3984 students, they would have to take some students with 33's.
The point is that the 40+ myth grossly exagerates the number of people with very high scores.
Obviously, schools don't completely base admissions on MCAT and there are a lot of factors that complicate any meaningful theory of MCAT cutoffs for top schools. Some things that might be important...1) The average MCAT score for accepted students at every top school is below what would be predicted by my analysis above. 2) The average MCAT for accepted student includes applicants with multiple acceptances. I think this scews the averages up. For example, a person with a 40+ might be accepted at 10 out of the top 10 schools, thus bumping up the averages at each of those schools. On the other hand, someone with a lower score that could balance out the 40+ guy/gal would probably be accepted at fewer of the top 10 schools. 3) I imagine that many people with high MCAT scores would choose to go to their state school which might no be highly ranked. These applicants probably have a good chance at getting large scholarships at their state school. 4) From what I've read, the scores for accepted URM's, at least at the top schools, are very close to those for non-URM's.
How many times on this board have we read some variant of the following: "Yeah, you may have above average MCAT scores, but it's nothing to get excited about because top schools could easily fill their entire classes with 4.0 and 40+ MCATs."
or this: "Don't worry to much about your below average MCAT scores. Top schools could easily fill their entire classes with 4.0 and 40+ MCATs, but we know the average stats for accepted students are lower than that so it must mean that top schools care more about the 'total package.'"
Judging from the 2003-2004 MSAR, there are not that many 40+ MCAT scorers. I used a ruler and the graph on page 27 titled MCAT Total Numeric Score Distribution, Year 2001 Applicants to estimate the number of people with each score. I think there are only about 184 people with scores of 40 or greater, a number which would barely fill the class at Harvard.
Here's a list with the score, my estimate of the number of applicants with that score, and my estimate of the number of applicants with that score who are accepted.
Score/ # Applicants/ # Accepted
42 / 26 / 26
41 / 53 / 53
40 / 105 / 105
39 / 211 / 211
38 / 395 / 316
37 / 579 / 474
36 / 711 / 579
35 / 974 / 789
34 / 1368 / 1105
33 / 1684 / 1237
32 / 2026 / 1421
31 / 2395 / 1658
30 / 2474 / 1632
For comparison, the top 5 schools based on US News enroll 648 first year students. If they filled their classes based solely on MCAT scores, the lowest MCAT accepted would be 38. The top 10 schools take 1388 students, and the lowest MCAT they would have to take to fill their classes would be 36. For the top 20 schools, which enroll 2697 first years, they would have to take people with at least a 35 and some with a 34. Finally, for the top 30 schools, which enroll a total of 3984 students, they would have to take some students with 33's.
The point is that the 40+ myth grossly exagerates the number of people with very high scores.
Obviously, schools don't completely base admissions on MCAT and there are a lot of factors that complicate any meaningful theory of MCAT cutoffs for top schools. Some things that might be important...1) The average MCAT score for accepted students at every top school is below what would be predicted by my analysis above. 2) The average MCAT for accepted student includes applicants with multiple acceptances. I think this scews the averages up. For example, a person with a 40+ might be accepted at 10 out of the top 10 schools, thus bumping up the averages at each of those schools. On the other hand, someone with a lower score that could balance out the 40+ guy/gal would probably be accepted at fewer of the top 10 schools. 3) I imagine that many people with high MCAT scores would choose to go to their state school which might no be highly ranked. These applicants probably have a good chance at getting large scholarships at their state school. 4) From what I've read, the scores for accepted URM's, at least at the top schools, are very close to those for non-URM's.
