Excellent analysis of the numbers, statistically it seems like the percentage of US graduates entering family practice residencies is almost flat, unless you call an increase of 7.7% to 8.1% a trend, I guess then the 8.7% of U.S. med students entering Family Practice in 2004 was a Golden Age of Family Practice for PDs! It seems like the authors of the article were trying to say that Family Practice is now becoming a "hot specialty" for U.S. graduates perhaps trying to recruit more medical students into family practice or to improve its image? Despite the aging and growth of the U.S. population the absolute number of people entering family practice has decreased by about 500 spots since 1997 in the U.S. . . . it leaves me to wonder if some of the so-called "physician surplus" is a self-manufactured crisis to increase the job opportunities for newly graduated family practice residents. The article does talk about the excellent job opportunities available:
"Family medicine and other primary care specialties have ranked tops in the number of recruitment requests fielded by Merritt Hawkins, a national physician recruitment firm. The company's report,
2007 Review of Physician and CRNA Recruiting Incentives, (17-page PDF;
About PDFs) showed an 84 percent increase in demand for family physicians since 2003-04 and an 11 percent increase in FP compensation offers from 2005-06 to 2006-07. Moreover, signing bonuses for primary care physicians are virtually universal, the report said."
I think that this demand is because there is such a shortage in hard-hit areas, so I think it is weird that the article at the same times extolls the benefits of more pay & bonuses (etc. . . at the expense of having regions that are chronically overstaffed and desperate) while also acknowledging that 4,000 FP residents a year need to be produced. I wonder if they really plan to increase family practice residency PG-Y 1 spots? It will be great I think if the government helps make more healthcare available to more people, . . . but where are the doctors going to come from? Maybe there isn't really a physician shortage in primary care, but the number of bonuses and such seem to show that there is. . . judging by the number of residency slots that were lost over the last 10 years Family Practice has been the Incredible Shrinking Specialty!
Year Total Number
. . . .of Family Practice
. . . . Positions
1997 2,905
1998 2,814
1999 2,697
2000 2,603
2001 2,363
2002 2,357
2003 2,239
2004 2,273
2005 2,292
2006 2,318
2007 2,404
At this rate I think that even if 100 new positions were created a year, it will take until 2012 just to get back to 1997 levels of Family Practice Residents graduated each year . . . the most I've seen similar residencies add positions nationwide is about 40 positions a year, so it will take them until maybe 2024 to just inch back to near 3,000 . . . in 2000 there were over 281 million people in the U.S. today:
Based on a
population clock maintained by the
U.S. Census Bureau, the current U.S. population, as of 11:13
GMT (
EST+5)
March 13,
2008 is 303,622,602.
[8] The US population is meant to increase by one third by the year
2050.
So about a 8 percent increase in the U.S. population from 2000 to 2008, roughly the 1% per year growth of the population, however, also should be factored in older patients who will need more visits and care and also expanding healthcare coverage and maybe the number of patients needing doctors is really increasing faster than anyone thought . . . I don't think increasing the number of M.D. or D.O. students in the U.S. will help the problem per se as foreign trained doctors fill the remainder of any
family practice spots that are left in the match, therefore there should be an effort to increase residency spots and then worry about how many U.S. grads are entering the field