The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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I only point this out because your fearmongering was baseless. The fools who listened to you are regretting it now.

I simply want to point out the difference.

Indexing: simple, put money in and let it work for you.

House: homework, finding the right house, tenant, manager, repair guy etc. Money is stuck.

If you want to put the work in and hope you make a percent or two more then stocks, go ahead.

And no I didn't fear monger, no one lost money since you started taking about it.

And with that, I'm done on the topic.

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Interesting how they brought up automation and everyone blows it off

Well but Yang
 
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Interesting how they brought up automation and everyone blows it off

Well but Yang

I am really surprise that Andrew Yang got a lot of speaking time. He is killing. The old guards don’t know what to say because he is speaking the truth.

 
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I really hope people are listening, Warren/Sanders are not the answer and they are getting exposed today.

Oh and Biden is having a hard time articulating
 
Yang specifically called out pharmacists. We're doomed.
 
He mentioned us awhile ago not today.
(Edit: nope he mentioned us in the closing statement)
Yang didn't look good though once again. He just repeats the same things over and over again. No one is going to jump on his bandwagon based off today.

Buttigieg came off strong and all the pointless candidates continue to show they shouldn't be up there.

What happened to Booker and Harris?

O'Rourke doesn't understand that criminals are not going to just turn in their gun and just wants to try to stay relevant.

Can we please just go down to Biden/Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg/Yang and get rid of the rest so we can actually hear each talk on every issue?
 
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Polling 9% in North Carolina:




Nice job finding a random poll by Yang.

I can find polls that show Steyer ahead of him. I guess that means Steyer sleyed.
 
Nice job finding a random poll by Yang.

I can find polls that show Steyer ahead of him. I guess that means Steyer sleyed.

Yang 7% in California (4th):

 
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Yang 7% in California (4th):


Again ok, now how about the hundreds of polls that put him at 2%? There's a reason they say there's a range. They just happened to pick 70 people out of 1000 that prefer him.

His real poll numbers are in the 2 to 4 percent range which right now says he has little chance. Get back to me when he is at least consistently over 10%.
 
Being in the 2 to 4% range in every poll shows he is being slayed.

Pretty good for a guy that is pretty much just a random dude that up and decided to run. He's already accomplished his goal. UBI and a focus on the 4th industrial revolution are coming to the forefront. Anything else is gravy.
 
Pretty good for a guy that is pretty much just a random dude that up and decided to run. He's already accomplished his goal. UBI and a focus on the 4th industrial revolution are coming to the forefront. Anything else is gravy.

He's going to stay in that range because of his following and clever advertising. He's doing everything right I'll give him that. The thing is, millions of people have now seen him say the same thing every single time and he never contributes to other topics much. His polls haven't moved though.

Personally when he speaks, it kind of sounds like he thinks he's smarter then everyone.... which he is but it's off-putting. I'm sure he's much better one on one and it might just be he only says his planned responses but he needs to work on that.
 
These are liberals. They invented the TED talk and NPR. They won't mind.

Yeah but you still have to think about the common person who is also liberal.

Like Buttigieg kept saying, us Midwesterners are not like you California folk. We don't like being talked down to like we're idiots.
 
Personally when he speaks, it kind of sounds like he thinks he's smarter then everyone.... which he is but it's off-putting. I'm sure he's much better one on one and it might just be he only says his planned responses but he needs to work on that.

Personally I think his issue is he is too articulate. He should try stuttering more and speaking in circles. Maybe just string together random words into nonsensical fragments.
 
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Personally I think his issue is he is too articulate. He should try stuttering more and speaking in circles. Maybe just string together random words into nonsensical fragments.

Sarcasm: when a person has nothing to actually add to the conversation.

Anyways, Buttigieg doesn't stutter or talk in circles. He comes off way better though. He's now my new favorite if I have to have a Democrat. I don't see him doing any of his free stuff since he knows it won't be paid for.

Like I said though I think he just sticks to his planned talking points which he will work on I'm sure.
 
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Personally I think his issue is he is too articulate. He should try stuttering more and speaking in circles. Maybe just string together random words into nonsensical fragments.

Where is GWB?
 
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Retail sales down this month.

Can the fed pull through or are we going back down?


Is this a chart showing we're about to bust to the upside? It can't possibly be wrong right?

What's interesting is I think it's the same one already posted here but with the opposite opinion. How can that be possible if charts show the way? There can't possibly be different opinions unless of course none of it matters.
 
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Retail sales down this month.

Can the fed pull through or are we going back down?


Is this a chart showing we're about to bust to the upside? It can't possibly be wrong right?

What's interesting is I think it's the same one already posted here but with the opposite opinion. How can that be possible if charts show the way? There can't possibly be different opinions unless of course none of it matters.

so who will you believe? marketwatch or me

i mean, the author is a Harvard affiliate

two more charts, hershey and proctor & gamble. good dividend stocks and the reason they're relevant is that they tend to be attractive in times of low interest rates/yield.

why i think the Fed is gonna ruin the party is that in the charts below, both dividend players reached a relative peak (see "2" in chart) around this time of low interest rates. there's a reversal going on here which tells me perhaps interest rates are not going as low as everyone is expecting. "1" in the chart marks the period of increased expected hawkishness from the Fed and you can see how in recent times when the Fed is hawkish, the stocks fall (in 2018), and when the Fed is dovish (like recently), the stocks rise. this channel has forced these stocks to fall and is an indicator to me that the dovishness of the Fed has ended. wall street still is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts while these dividend players are telling a different story. i picked these dividend stocks because they're devoid of a bunch of the noise -- trader war, recession, etc.

when we don't continue get the dovish Fed everyone is currently expecting, stocks will fall.

HSY_YahooFinanceChart.png
PG_YahooFinanceChart.png
 
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so who will you believe? marketwatch or me

i mean, the author is a Harvard affiliate

two more charts, hershey and proctor & gamble. good dividend stocks and the reason they're relevant is that they tend to be attractive in times of low interest rates/yield.

why i think the Fed is gonna ruin the party is that in the charts below, both dividend players reached a relative peak (see "2" in chart) around this time of low interest rates. there's a reversal going on here which tells me perhaps interest rates are not going as low as everyone is expecting. "1" in the chart marks the period of increased expected hawkishness from the Fed and you can see how in recent times when the Fed is hawkish, the stocks fall (in 2018), and when the Fed is dovish (like recently), the stocks rise. this channel has forced these stocks to fall and is an indicator to me that the dovishness of the Fed has ended. wall street still is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts while these dividend players are telling a different story. i picked these dividend stocks because they're devoid of a bunch of the noise -- trader war, recession, etc.

when we don't continue get the dovish Fed everyone is currently expecting, stocks will fall.

View attachment 283518View attachment 283519

That's my point though if two people interpret a chart differently, maybe just maybe it has nothing to do with the chart at all?
 
This market wants to go higher.

Stay away bad China news that's bound to come out and ruin it again.
 
This market wants to go higher.

Stay away bad China news that's bound to come out and ruin it again.

as of this writing the market is still where it was on monday. the charts posted earlier all still hold. nothing invalidated. to add, the only upside left is a false breakout.
 
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That's my point though if two people interpret a chart differently, maybe just maybe it has nothing to do with the chart at all?

same chart, 2 different opinions. it's not the chart - it's the idiot with the wrong opinion
 
same chart, 2 different opinions. it's not the chart - it's the idiot with the wrong opinion

This post could end up coming back to haunt you
 
This post could end up coming back to haunt you

posting an updated chart next to my previous chart. both are of the NASDAQ, both drawn with my pretty lines. see the yellow highlighted bar? yea that's the market's recent up day. the nasdaq (IXIC here) was up exactly 0.40% despite negative economic data. poor retail sales. bad housing start numbers. more political chaos.

why is the market up today you ask? the market is up exactly 0.40% today so that it could literally TAG the red line i drew last week. in other words, i literally have the market under my control. news and earnings don't matter. i gave you this chart earlier and if you all would have used it you would have made hundreds to thousands of bucks on some good trades.

a multi-trillion dollar asset/bubble economy -- I PULL THE LEVERS :shrug:

ixic2.png


posted last week:
nasdaq1.png
 
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I'm pumping up my 401k and making it strong like a ninja turtle. I'm trying to invest at least 25k over the course of this upcoming year so I don't have to live like a ninja turtle when I'm old.
 
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I'm pumping up my 401k and making it strong like a ninja turtle. I'm trying to invest at least 25k over the course of this upcoming year so I don't have to live like a ninja turtle when I'm old.

Good job. All pharmacists should max their retirement accounts.
 
posting an updated chart next to my previous chart. both are of the NASDAQ, both drawn with my pretty lines. see the yellow highlighted bar? yea that's the market's recent up day. the nasdaq (IXIC here) was up exactly 0.40% despite negative economic data. poor retail sales. bad housing start numbers. more political chaos.

why is the market up today you ask? the market is up exactly 0.40% today so that it could literally TAG the red line i drew last week. in other words, i literally have the market under my control. news and earnings don't matter. i gave you this chart earlier and if you all would have used it you would have made hundreds to thousands of bucks on some good trades.

a multi-trillion dollar asset/bubble economy -- I PULL THE LEVERS :shrug:

View attachment 283681

posted last week:
View attachment 283684
you realize every graph youve posted on here gives infinite weight to peaks and troughs and ignores all of the activity in between. Peaks and troughs are naturally the periods right before market corrections and are therefore most representative of irrational investor activity... They are also arbitrarily selected.
I cant help but criticize that 1. without a statistical method for verifying the predictive power of these arbitrary selections, 2. giving some amount of weight to a more representative selection of market trends, and 3. correcting for irrational market reactions based on news/legislative decisions that youre simply "drawing lines in the stars".
 
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you realize every graph youve posted on here gives infinite weight to peaks and troughs and ignores all of the activity in between. Peaks and troughs are naturally the periods right before market corrections and are therefore most representative of irrational investor activity... They are also arbitrarily selected.
I cant help but criticize that 1. without a statistical method for verifying the predictive power of these arbitrary selections, 2. giving some amount of weight to a more representative selection of market trends, and 3. correcting for irrational market reactions based on news/legislative decisions that youre simply "drawing lines in the stars".

analyze this instead you non-believer. i posted this last night and then took it away since i wasn't so keen on giving away free money. had you drawn these last night you would've made hundreds/thousands today

my peaks and troughs are not arbitrarily selected. they are logically chosen and your harvard/mit degree makes you too stuck up too realize that. that y=mx+b e=mc2 stuff they teach you at MIT will not save you in this market

drawn yesterday:
spy1.png

today's market:
spy2.png
 
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So am I to understand your method is to assume when the market is going up that it will keep going up and when it is going down it will keep going down? Do your charts predict when it will change from one to the other?

I feel like I have to be missing some nuance here.
 
Steadily invest in low cost etf over a long period of time. Quit trying to speculate about what the market is going to do. Everything will be just fine.
 
Steadily invest in low cost etf over a long period of time. Quit trying to speculate about what the market is going to do. Everything will be just fine.
does it look like i am speculating here? i think i confuse you

So am I to understand your method is to assume when the market is going up that it will keep going up and when it is going down it will keep going down? Do your charts predict when it will change from one to the other?

I feel like I have to be missing some nuance here.

past 2 weeks of the sp500:
spy4.png
 
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Chart fight!

.:corny::corny:

This guy is literally drawing lines and thinks every time you can connect two points it shows the future.

How hard is it to understand there is fear in this market? People remember last year and are waiting for it to happen again. We are at peak earnings. The fed is forcing us into the market by not allowing people to make money in safer areas. China trade is far, far away from being done. Consumer spending might have two straight down months. This list can go on and on.

No one should be tossing huge amounts of money into this market. There is too much risk. Continue to add monthly and you'll be fine.

I have no idea if Trump can get another tax break done and make us go higher but until then sit back and enjoy the ride.

But no a chart isn't predicting this.
 
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If you don't have kids you should save 50% of your earnings each year. That way the Jones won't be able to keep up with you when your old.
 
does it look like i am speculating here? i think i confuse you



past 2 weeks of the sp500:
View attachment 283849

it confuses me how you make predictions without quantitative measures of confidence. How would you decide how much of your portfolio to partition into each of your predictions?

I maintain my own models for a couple of "penny" oncology stocks and due to the low volume they are primarily designed to predict and exploit the psychology of people using analytical methods based on emotion and simple image reckoning...
 
I'm pumping up my 401k and making it strong like a ninja turtle. I'm trying to invest at least 25k over the course of this upcoming year so I don't have to live like a ninja turtle when I'm old.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but max 401k contribution is 19k this year... unless you’re 50yrs+ then you can do 25k?


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
it confuses me how you make predictions without quantitative measures of confidence. How would you decide how much of your portfolio to partition into each of your predictions?

I maintain my own models for a couple of "penny" oncology stocks and due to the low volume they are primarily designed to predict and exploit the psychology of people using analytical methods based on emotion and simple image reckoning...

charts are just manifestations of the underlying algorithms that comprise the greater portion of total market volume. and because algorithms are obviously mathematical in nature, your daily, monthly, yearly market fluctuations produce repetitive identifiable structural patterns that can foreshadow impending downturns or melt-ups. whether you would like to involve any measure of quantitative analysis is up to you but isn't necessary in predicting corrections, bear markets, tops, etc. you are skeptical obviously because you deal with penny stocks, with which the majority of players come out losers (simply because the charts belie the fundamentals of the underlying companies and you have fewer variables to work with). good luck penny stock trader, i am in the business of investing -- you are in the business of gambling
 
Chart fight!

.:corny::corny:

This guy is literally drawing lines and thinks every time you can connect two points it shows the future.

How hard is it to understand there is fear in this market? People remember last year and are waiting for it to happen again. We are at peak earnings. The fed is forcing us into the market by not allowing people to make money in safer areas. China trade is far, far away from being done. Consumer spending might have two straight down months. This list can go on and on.

No one should be tossing huge amounts of money into this market. There is too much risk. Continue to add monthly and you'll be fine.

I have no idea if Trump can get another tax break done and make us go higher but until then sit back and enjoy the ride.

But no a chart isn't predicting this.

wanna bet?
your monday morning chart riddle, sp500 :joyful::
spy5.png
 
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wanna bet?
your monday morning chart riddle, sp500 :joyful::
View attachment 284068
You need to ask yourself why is it even though everything says we should be way lower then we are now that we continue to go higher.

There's no way you can possibly tell me every single year for the past oh 5 years you didn't see a chart that said it was over and it was wrong every time.
 
Anyone else having issues with marketwatch on their phone?

The main page just freezes.
 
You need to ask yourself why is it even though everything says we should be way lower then we are now that we continue to go higher.

There's no way you can possibly tell me every single year for the past oh 5 years you didn't see a chart that said it was over and it was wrong every time.
im not sure why you say we continue to go higher. the sp500 has not made a new high since July.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong, but max 401k contribution is 19k this year... unless you’re 50yrs+ then you can do 25k?


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You can do 401K(19k), HSA(3.5k), roth ira(5.5K after tax but tax free interest). 1st max funds matching 401k. Then max hsa. Then max roth ira. Then max 401k. Then add to your rainy day fund. Besides your home pay cash for everything like cars, jewelry, and etc.
 
im not sure why you say we continue to go higher. the sp500 has not made a new high since July.

I'm trying to say the market wants to go higher but we can't. We're trying everything we can to keep this bubble from popping.

We've had two straight quarters of earnings declines and we're about to have a third. Do you see what happened in 2016 which is when this last happened? We were flat. We were doing the exact same thing we are doing this time. Plunging then returning, plunging then returning. We will continue to do this until EARNINGS improve or we just straight crash.

There is a reason why we aren't going higher and it's not a chart.

And you know what I meant, your little charts have been saying crash for years and it hasn't happened. Your charts aren't predicting anything now nor back then.
 
You can do 401K(19k), HSA(3.5k), roth ira(5.5K after tax but tax free interest). 1st max funds matching 401k. Then max hsa. Then max roth ira. Then max 401k. Then add to your rainy day fund. Besides your home pay cash for everything like cars, jewelry, and etc.

I am not a big fan of Roth IRA. You can make up to almost $75 k in income (couples) and pay zero capital gain tax anyways.
 
I am not a big fan of Roth IRA. You can make up to almost $75 k in income (couples) and pay zero capital gain tax anyways.
I plan on having a net worth of 4.5-6.5 in todays dollars at age 60. I'll be raking in 175k-225k a year on dividends alone.
 
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