The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[owlegrad]

In the mean time, every other car makers are making EV too. There is a big chance my next car in 10 yrs isn't a Tesla. It will be some random EV Automakers.

No one thinks that Tesla won't eventually have real competition. But other car makers are dragging their feet or making halfhearted attempts at best. If every other car maker is making EV too, why does Tesla own the EV market? You would think that with their decades of experience making cars they could crush an upstart. When in fact it is the opposite that is happening.

I actually doubt that many legacy car makers will be able to make the transition, more likely other new EV manufacturers will emerge to challenge. Apparently it is just too hard to make the transition to electric.

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[wagrxm2000]

No one thinks that Tesla won't eventually have real competition. But other car makers are dragging their feet or making halfhearted attempts at best. If every other car maker is making EV too, why does Tesla own the EV market? You would think that with their decades of experience making cars they could crush an upstart. When in fact it is the opposite that is happening.

I actually doubt that many legacy car makers will be able to make the transition, more likely other new EV manufacturers will emerge to challenge. Apparently it is just too hard to make the transition to electric.

Estimated U.S. electric vehicle sales by brand 2019 | Statista

The number of battery electric vehicles sold in the United States came to about 245,000 in 2019, with sales of Tesla models accounting for almost 80 percent of that figure.

www.statista.com

.
And it really wasn't even close in the US last year.

Tesla sold almost 80%

When people think electric, they think Tesla.

 

[owlegrad]

I doubt most people could name an electric vehicle besides Tesla. Maybe Volt but I suspect most people only know that name if they have seriously researched the market. I bet most would name Prius without understanding the deference between EV and Hybrid. I personally couldn’t name an EV besides Tesla, Volt, and Leaf.

The idea that every car maker is making EVs is just laughable. Not even close.

 

[Momus]

I doubt most people could name an electric vehicle besides Tesla. Maybe Volt but I suspect most people only know that name if they have seriously researched the market. I bet most would name Prius without understanding the deference between EV and Hybrid. I personally couldn’t name an EV besides Tesla, Volt, and Leaf.

The idea that every car maker is making EVs is just laughable. Not even close.

Yes, but I will say it again. My next car probably won't be a Tesla. Most people will buy a non Tesla cars once Automakers gravitate on promoting them more. Right now, tesla has range advantage. Give it another yr or two, I won't even consider a Tesla.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

We are at the cusp of EV being the new normal.

 

[owlegrad]

Yes, but I will say it again. My next car probably won't be a Tesla. Most people will buy a non Tesla cars once Automakers gravitate on promoting them more. Right now, tesla has range advantage. Give it another yr or two, I won't even consider a Tesla.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

We are at the cusp of EV being the new normal.

Why do you think you won’t buy a Tesla? 80% of EV buyers do...

 

[Momus]

Why do you think you won’t buy a Tesla? 80% of EV buyers do...

Not in the market for at least 10 yrs. By then, everyone else is catching up to them. They have range and half ass self driving advantage (still lvl 3 autonomous = sh1t) for now. That normally doesn't last long if that's all they can offer.

I don't see Honda, Toyota, GM not making their own great EV in the next 10 yrs.

 

[LFA20]

Joined the Tesla bandwagon yesterday morning

 

[LFA20]

Why do you think you won’t buy a Tesla? 80% of EV buyers do...

exactly. I know all my friends are obsessed with Tesla...

 

[mentos]

Imagine hearing one month ago "TSLA on sale for under $1400 today" LoL. My brother in law, who has a net worth of like negative $1mil, is giving stock advice - telling people TSLA stock will go to the moon. Reminds me of Bitcoin. That's when I know it's overvalued. I imagine all these millennials buying it on Robinhood have no clue what they're doing as well.

If Honda or Toyota ever make a full EV then people will flock to it. The RAV 4 Prime (plug in hybrid with 42 miles electric range) already has wait lists at dealerships and is expected to sell above MSRP just like last year's RAV4 hybrid did. It qualifies for the $7500 tax credit. They are only able to deliver about 5,000 of them this year.

One issue with TSLA is it's still a luxury vehicle. That means there's plenty of expensive parts bound to stop working and once the warranty is up in 3-5 years, you're SOL. Plenty of videos on YouTube about this. One guy's door handles stopped working which cost like $1200 to replace, you kidding me? That's no different than buying a Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. They become money pits.

 

[LFA20]

Imagine hearing one month ago "TSLA on sale for under $1400 today" LoL. My brother in law, who has a net worth of like negative $1mil, is giving stock advice - telling people TSLA stock will go to the moon. Reminds me of Bitcoin. That's when I know it's overvalued. I imagine all these millennials buying it on Robinhood have no clue what they're doing as well.

If Honda or Toyota ever make a full EV then people will flock to it. The RAV 4 Prime (plug in hybrid with 42 miles electric range) already has wait lists at dealerships and is expected to sell above MSRP just like last year's RAV4 hybrid did. They are only able to deliver about 5,000 of them this year.

One issue with TSLA is it's still a luxury vehicle. That means there's plenty of expensive parts bound to stop working and once the warranty is up in 3-5 years, you're SOL. Plenty of videos on YouTube about this. One guy's door handles stopped working which cost like $1200 to replace, you kidding me? That's no different than buying a Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. They become money pits.

Very true.. We only care about whats cool and trending at the moment

 

[wagrxm2000]

It will be very hard for Tesla to fall under 1k without a market crash

Bitcoin fell about 75% at one point. That's not happening with Tesla.

 

[Prepharm1214]

With mortgage rates as low as they are do people here reccomend financing a large percent of their house? I have saved aggressively and can pay cash for a house I like (400k$) which was my plan for years but with rates so low and a bad job market I feel as though financing gives me better flexibility long term. A 400k purchase would be about 50% of my net worth and in my area is my dream home/long term housing. If financing is advised go 30 or 15 year based on these details?

 

[mentos]

I doubt most people could name an electric vehicle besides Tesla. Maybe Volt but I suspect most people only know that name if they have seriously researched the market. I bet most would name Prius without understanding the deference between EV and Hybrid. I personally couldn’t name an EV besides Tesla, Volt, and Leaf.

The idea that every car maker is making EVs is just laughable. Not even close.

LoL the Volt is Chevy's discontinued hybrid. Their EV is called the Bolt. You just did the equivalent of naming the Prius as an EV! LMAO.

 

[Splenda88]

With mortgage rates as low as they are do people here reccomend financing a large percent of their house? I have saved aggressively and can pay cash for a house I like (400k$) which was my plan for years but with rates so low and a bad job market I feel as though financing gives me better flexibility long term. A 400k purchase would be about 50% of my net worth and in my area is my dream home/long term housing. If financing is advised go 30 or 15 year based on these details?

You should definitely finance a 15-yr note. Put 20% down so you won't have PMI. Try to pay the mortgage off aggressively in 5 yrs...

This is what I would do if it was me in that situation. I would not care about dream home. I would buy something for 280-300k. if dream home is 400k, I am assuming one can find something decent in a good neighborhood for ~300k. I would still still put 20% , finance the rest and invest whatever is left in index fund.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I like the Mustang Mach-E EV a lot. The Polestar 2 is pretty sweet, too. I'd drive those over a Tesla, TBH.

 

[owlegrad]

LoL the Volt is Chevy's discontinued hybrid. Their EV is called the Bolt. You just did the equivalent of naming the Prius as an EV! LMAO.

Dang it! To be fair I only missed it by one letter.

 

[Sine Cura]

Weeklies are basically gambling unless you have inside info.

 

[mentos]

This is why you guys have to stop gambling your life savings in the stock market. Watch as Tesla goes bankrupt in three years and all the "investors" who are saying Tesla is guaranteed to be the dominant car manufacturer in the world will go down in flames with them. You don't buy individual stocks. You don't gamble. You diversify which mathematically a better decision 100% of the time with ZERO EXCEPTIONS. I don't care how certain you are.

Amazon Buys Self-Driving Company Zoox For $1.2B And May Rule The World

Reports have emerged that Amazon.com will purchase self-driving startup Zoox for “more than $1.2B” with exact details of the deal not disclosed.

www.forbes.com

No one here is gambling their life away. The majority max out retirement accounts with index funds and buy individual stocks in their play accounts.

 

[LFA20]

This is why you guys have to stop gambling your life savings in the stock market. Watch as Tesla goes bankrupt in three years and all the "investors" who are saying Tesla is guaranteed to be the dominant car manufacturer in the world will go down in flames with them. You don't buy individual stocks. You don't gamble. You diversify which mathematically a better decision 100% of the time with ZERO EXCEPTIONS. I don't care how certain you are.

Amazon Buys Self-Driving Company Zoox For $1.2B And May Rule The World

Reports have emerged that Amazon.com will purchase self-driving startup Zoox for “more than $1.2B” with exact details of the deal not disclosed.

www.forbes.com

But but.. if you don’t take risk you’ll never make it big...

 

[wagrxm2000]

This is why you guys have to stop gambling your life savings in the stock market. Watch as Tesla goes bankrupt in three years and all the "investors" who are saying Tesla is guaranteed to be the dominant car manufacturer in the world will go down in flames with them. You don't buy individual stocks. You don't gamble. You diversify which mathematically a better decision 100% of the time with ZERO EXCEPTIONS. I don't care how certain you are.

Amazon Buys Self-Driving Company Zoox For $1.2B And May Rule The World

Reports have emerged that Amazon.com will purchase self-driving startup Zoox for “more than $1.2B” with exact details of the deal not disclosed.

www.forbes.com

Funny thing about your comment is the most talked about stocks on here are FAAAMNT and they have all performed at least the entire time I've been here.

Just look at the last three years alone.

S&P500 up a little under 30%
Facebook: 30%
Apple: doubled
Amazon: tripled
Alphabet: 60%
Microsoft: pretty much tripled
Netflix: more then doubled
Tesla: tripled

I've been pounding the table on these stocks forever.

Sell them if you want to take profits but keep on buying on the dips.

Those that work non-stop, picking up shifts, not spending any money, and essentially not living a normal life are of course going to make a bunch of money in this bull market we had indexing. Heck it's where most of my net worth comes from. However, the easy lifestyle we've lived is due to my trading account.

However, if those same people would have put their overtime money into growth stocks, they would be done working by now.

 

[LFA20]

Funny thing about your comment is the most talked about stocks on here are FAAAMNT and they have all performed at least the entire time I've been here.

Just look at the last three years alone.

S&P500 up a little under 30%
Facebook: 30%
Apple: doubled
Amazon: tripled
Alphabet: 60%
Netflix: more then doubled
Tesla: tripled

I've been pounding the table on these stocks forever.

Agree. Even if there’s a dip it will rise back up eventually


MURICA!

 

[mentos]

Funny thing about your comment is the most talked about stocks on here are FAAAMNT and they have all performed at least the entire time I've been here.

Just look at the last three years alone.

S&P500 up a little under 30%
Facebook: 30%
Apple: doubled
Amazon: tripled
Alphabet: 60%
Microsoft: pretty much tripled
Netflix: more then doubled
Tesla: tripled

I've been pounding the table on these stocks forever.

Sell them if you want to take profits but keep on buying on the dips

Never knew FAAAMNT was an acronym.

How much of a dip do you usually wait for to buy? 5-10%?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Never knew FAAAMNT was an acronym.

How much of a dip do you usually wait for to buy? 5-10%?

Ha, it's not

There's no general rule I use but I haven't bought very many individuals recently since we're winding down our careers.

I know everything about a stock before I buy. I follow the wait 3 days before buying rule when deciding though when it drops. I look at the fundamentals to see if anything has changed with technicals to see how far it may drop. Yes technical analysis is important. When you have so many people looking at the same thing of course it works.

 

[wagrxm2000]

A vaccine nowhere in site, dollar continues to fall, a whole bunch of stimulus money

Who wouldn't be in gold? $2k isn't too far away.

If you have some play money, Bitcoin is looking like it could spike and fall any moment.

 

[PharmDminus]

Pessina steps down as WBA CEO. Good or bad?

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Pessina steps down as WBA CEO. Good or bad?

Depends on who the next sociopath in line is.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Those who gambled their lives away have left the forum in shame and have crippled themselves financially. There is a reason why long term investors tend to stick around this forum and the pump and dumpers tend to disappear all the time.



Not true. Most multimillionaires get there by earning a normal salary and investing wisely over the long term. Gamblers double down until their balance hits zero.




I actually did tax-loss harvesting almost exactly at the bottom this year. Not because I'm good, just seemed like a good time to do it and if we went down more I would just it again. Moved most of my assets from total stock market/S&P type funds to growth/tech ETF's. I'm up big on the year. I'm all for being overweight tech, I'm not all for investing more than 5-10% of your porfolio in a single stock. The big tech bubble will crash someday. It always does. But overtime it seems likely tech will take over more of the economy. If you invest everything in Amazon you expose yourself to the very real possibility of losing 50%+ of your money in a tech crash when investors finally realize Amazon has lost stream and is just another retailer. Or the next Walmart/Amazon style retail disrupter comes along. The point of my original post was that the "guaranteed" big gains to be made on Tesla were in no way guaranteed. All it takes is one big player to come in and crash their party, one government to slash their tires, one sex scandal from Elon burning the company to the ground a la Tiger Woods style. I can almost guarantee the average growth of the companies you list will do very well over the long run. I cannot guess which companies will stick around and which will disappear. Diversification is the only method of investing that can increase your risk adjusted return. As in, you get to both enjoy more growth and expose yourself to less risk. Mathematically, this can be proven but its been awhile since I've gone there and don't plan on revisiting it just for this discussion. Buy big tech etfs, don't buy Tesla or Amazon.

Here's a couple charts that will blow your mind. You can see when growth/value or big cap/small cap stocks are over/undervalued. It's evident we're in a big cap growth bubble which I've been riding. Small cap/value was winning marginally for decades and we had an incredibly rapid reversal in the past several years. It will pop eventually mind you.

Growth vs. Value Stocks - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

Which performed better in recent years, growth stocks or value stocks? The ratio in this chart divides the Wilshire US Large-Cap Growth Index by the Wilshire US Large-Cap Value Index. When the ratio rises, growth stocks outperform value stocks - and when it falls, value stocks outperform growth...

www.longtermtrends.net

Large-cap vs. Small-cap Stocks - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends

Which performed better in recent years, large-cap or small-cap stocks? The ratio in this chart divides the Wilshire US Large-Cap Index by the Wilshire US Small-Cap Index. When the ratio rises, large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks - and when it falls, small-cap stocks outperform large-cap...

www.longtermtrends.net

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Just so I'm clear, you don't think Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft will be around in the future because of a "disrupter"?

You do know Amazon isn't just a retailer right?
AWS generated 10 billion in revenue last quarter I believe. That makes it around the 86th largest us companies if it was it's own entity over a full year.

Apple brought in 13 billion from Apple services last quarter making it the 64th largest us company ahead of Cisco. Cisco has a 200 billion market cap.

These tech companies understand they have to keep innovating to stay relevant.

Whenever you retire, I guarantee they will still be dominate.

 

[wagrxm2000]

@PharmDBro2017

Meli is up 10% since buying, holding on for more?

 

[redfish955]

I'd be a millionaire if I didn't put a million bucks on BB back in 2008.

 

[wagrxm2000]

@PharmDBro2017

Meli is up 10% since buying, holding on for more?

I guess I'll hold through earnings. Don't lose that 10%, it's one of the few stocks keeping the fund afloat.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I'd kill to remember what my paper trade account was even through. I crushed it one year and I'm pretty sure all I bought was Amazon and FB lol

This isn't paper, I actually bought those stocks.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I'm not in gold.

Well I hope you at least bought Bitcoin when I brought it up this morning. Already up 8%.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Sycamore Partners Leads Bid To Acquire Bankrupt JCPenney At $1.75B, Proposes Merger With Belks: Report

Private equity firm Sycamore Partners is leading a bidding war to acquire bankrupt J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (OTC: JCPNQ), the New York Post reported Monday.What Happened The New York-based firm has made an offer of $1.75 billion to the veteran retailer, according to the Post. It has also...

finance.yahoo.com

Private equity firm Sycamore Partners is leading a bidding war to acquire bankrupt J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (OTC: JCPNQ), the New York Post reported Monday.

What Happened

The New York-based firm has made an offer of $1.75 billion to the veteran retailer, according to the Post. It has also proposed a merger of JCPenney with Belks, another seasoned retailer it had purchased in 2015, as part of the acquisition deal.

“[JCPenney] is the lifeboat for Belks, which wants to compete with Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) nationally,” a person familiar with the matter told the Post.


Other competing bidders include Canadian Hudson’s Bay Company with a $1.7 billion offer, and mall owners Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) Brookfield Property Partners LP (NASDAQ: BPY), who have made a joint offer of $1.65 billion.

Bidding war has emerged to buy JC Penney.

lol.

Imagine if it got out of hand and JCPNQ winds up being the best stock out of all those that were picked in our little game.

 

[PharmDBro2017]

I guess I'll hold through earnings. Don't lose that 10%, it's one of the few stocks keeping the fund afloat.

You seen how it's been the last 1 year and 5 years? Keep it and enjoy the ride.

 

[PharmDBro2017]

Man all these guys in reddit that have 20 AMD leaps, plus made a fortune on square and Tesla. What am I doing wrong? Lol

I sold the majority of my AMD years ago, but what I've kept has 502% return lol.

 

[Chrish]

Man all these guys in reddit that have 20 AMD leaps, plus made a fortune on square and Tesla. What am I doing wrong? Lol

Lot of them have lost their underwear too. It’s a gamble. Some get lucky but most don’t. That’s why casinos earn billions.

 

[Sine Cura]

Ask AMD FD call holders what happened last earnings.

AMD had been flat for months.

There was a day earlier in the month (July 7) when Walmart weeklies jumped 10,000%

 

[mentos]

Man all these guys in reddit that have 20 AMD leaps, plus made a fortune on square and Tesla. What am I doing wrong? Lol

For every one humblebrag there are hundreds or thousands of quiet losers.

 

[Sine Cura]

re: Kodak. I had 10k lying around too

 

[redfish955]

My vangaurd wellington is up like 8% this July alone. If it dips again I will lose about half of what others lose and just reinvest it then.

 

[ranger99rx]

Why not get 15-yr mortgage since the interest is so low?


I am glad I got a 15-yr note during the housing crash... Mortgage will be paid off in less than five year if I continue to make the monthly payment. But will pay it off in < 3 yrs once I start making attending salary.

Isn’t it better to keep 30yr note, where you pay less interest monthly and put extra money toward principal every month if your goal is to pay off ASAP?

 

[Splenda88]

Isn’t it better to keep 30yr note, where you pay less interest monthly and put extra money toward principal every month if your goal is to pay off ASAP?

In theory, that might be correct. However, 9 out of 10 people who plan to do that do not end up doing it....

 

[PharmDminus]

Isn’t it better to keep 30yr note, where you pay less interest monthly and put extra money toward principal every month if your goal is to pay off ASAP?

i dont think so. not when you look at the way an amortization table works. also the rate will be lower on 15 year

 

[owlegrad]

Correct, you get a lower rate for 15 yr. Even if the rate was lower you are better off getting the 15 yr.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Big tech just made 200 billion in revenue and 30 billion in profits

And you have people here saying it's gambling and that they won't be around in the future

Then you have people like @pezdispenser who will make over $10k today

 

[WVUPharm2007]

A lot of "boring" companies will be available at a discount soon.

 

[mentos]

A lot of "boring" companies will be available at a discount soon.

Excuse my ignorance but isn't the S&P 500 comprised of 500 large companies? If TSLA joins, wouldn't just one be bumped out?

 

[Momus]

A lot of "boring" companies will be available at a discount soon.

Got them at total stock market/mid cap funds too. Top 10 holdings compromised about 20%+ of index. Don't see why I need to change anything.

Index just gives you everything you want.

 

[Momus]

Excuse my ignorance but isn't the S&P 500 comprised of 500 large companies? If TSLA joins, wouldn't just one be bumped out?

Index goes by market cap, tesla has 300B, that's half of FB 700B market cap. If Tesla gets in, they probably have to kick out like 50+ bottom companies who has like 0-0.5% weight.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Index goes by market cap, tesla has 300B, that's half of FB 700B market cap. If Tesla gets in, they probably have to kick out like 50+ bottom companies who has like 0-0.5% weight.

They won't get kicked out, but a significant percentage of those companies will be sold off so that the fund is properly weighted.