The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[mentos]

All EV is in a bubble.

See my post on battery swapping. Huge concerns there

I already addressed that concern, see my post above yours. Battery swapping is just an option, it's not the only option. You can charge just like with any other EV.

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[Splenda88]

My M1 finance account is a gambling account with some of stocks I own in it (NIO, CCL, NCLH). I am a high risk high reward individual... The cruise line stocks gamble is paying pay off so far. Wish I had more money when I purchased CCL and NCLH.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I already addressed that concern, see my post above yours. Battery swapping is just an option, it's not the only option. You can charge just like with any other EV.

Right but think about the cost. 100k cars all wanting battery swaps. That has huge costs.

How many people keep their car over 7 years?

 

[wagrxm2000]

I get that none of you young pharmacists have gone through a legit recession but don't come crying to me when we crash.

 

[mentos]

Right but think about the cost. 100k cars all wanting battery swaps. That has huge costs.

How many people keep their car over 7 years?

It will take a long time before 100k battery swaps are needed at once. The average owner will still charge at home. Right now it's more like, you can wait 30min at a supercharger vs 6min for a battery swap.

Exactly, purchasing a NIO for 20% less without the battery allows them to buy a new one more often which means more sales.

 

[mentos]

I get that none of you young pharmacists have gone through a legit recession but don't come crying to me when we crash.

Not sure who you're talking to but I'd consider 2008 legit. I only have a few thousand play money in NIO, the only individual stock I own. The rest is in index funds.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Right but think about the cost. 100k cars all wanting battery swaps. That has huge costs.

How many people keep their car over 7 years?

*Raises hand*

 

[Thestrugglez]

*Raises hand*

My car is 6 years old and my wife keeps trying to get me to get a Tesla. Hopefully I can make it past 7 years before I give in...

 

[mentos]

*Raises hand*

My 2009 Honda Accord is still going strong.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Not sure who you're talking to but I'd consider 2008 legit. I only have a few thousand play money in NIO, the only individual stock I own. The rest is in index funds.

This is why bmb needs to stop saying I'm wrong.

I'm not wrong. I loss less during the hiccup we had then I would have if I was fully invested. I'm approaching retirement and didn't want to risk as much and end up working another 10 years.

I also have made more in my Tesla trade then he has made in NIO year to date.

End of rant.

 

[wagrxm2000]

*Raises hand*

I have no idea what the poll would say but I do think a good majority by new vehicles every 5 to 7 years

 

[WVUPharm2007]

My 2009 Honda Accord is still going strong.

2008 Mercury Sable for me. Driving it until it dies. Also have a 2015 Ford Fusion I intend to drive for another decade.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I have no idea what the poll would say but I do think a good majority by new vehicles every 5 to 7 years

You could just Google it.

Average Length of Car Ownership | 2020 Data | Germain Cars

Find out how long people keep a new vehicle in the U.S. before selling it and what models are kept the longest in this guide by Germain Cars.

www.germaincars.com

"The experts at the car search engine iSeeCars.com took the time to analyze the average length of ownership among new cars. They investigated over 5 million vehicles sold by their original owners to determine which models are kept the longest. Counting all makes and models measured in this survey, the average length of new-vehicle ownership in the U.S. is 8.4 years"

So you aren't that too far off, I suppose.

 

[mentos]

You could just Google it.

Average Length of Car Ownership | 2020 Data | Germain Cars

Find out how long people keep a new vehicle in the U.S. before selling it and what models are kept the longest in this guide by Germain Cars.

www.germaincars.com

"The experts at the car search engine iSeeCars.com took the time to analyze the average length of ownership among new cars. They investigated over 5 million vehicles sold by their original owners to determine which models are kept the longest. Counting all makes and models measured in this survey, the average length of new-vehicle ownership in the U.S. is 8.4 years"

So you aren't that too far off, I suppose.

Average Age of Vehicles on the Road Rises above 12 Years

Vehicles on the road continue getting older, a study from IHS Markit found, even as new car sales recover from last year's pandemic-induced decline.

www.caranddriver.com

This one says the average car age is 12 years. Probably includes people who bought used.

 

[wagrxm2000]

You have to think about the type of person too. I would assume those buying NIO vehicles probably will want the newest model more often then a person buying a Honda

I'm at work so I couldn't read the article if that was brought up

 

[WVUPharm2007]

This is what I want to see.

 

[redfish955]

Just wait until the energy grid is saturated and overloaded by ev charging and utilities become unregulated to keep up with demand and get more investors.

 

[Splenda88]

What if NIO become Tesla like?

I am short on cash now except for my emergency fund. If the stock stay ~ $20/share, I think I will dump another 3k on it by the end of this year...

 

[mentos]

What if NIO become Tesla like?

I am short on cash now except for my emergency fund. If the stock stay ~ $20/share, I think I will dump another 3k on it by the end of this year...

I predict $35/share by end of the year. Some people think $50. Some analyst has a one year price target of $125.

 

[Splenda88]

I predict $35/share by end of the year. Some people think $50. Some analyst has a one year price target of $125.

These analysts are nuts...

How much you got on NIO? I am comfortable with my 2k so far... I might dump another 1k next week if got that 1k that is owed to me.

 

[mentos]

These analysts are nuts...

How much you got on NIO? I am comfortable with my 2k so far... I might dump another 1k next week if got that 1k that is owed to me.

1 year ago it was $1-2/share. Is $125 that far fetched? They have 4 vehicles already in their 6th year. Tesla had none in their 6th year.

After Tesla splits, they will have nearly the same amount of shares available as NIO. So say Tesla is worth $500/share after the the split this year. I can see NIO being worth 25% of that next year.

I have 326 shares. Peanuts compared to BMB.

 

[Splenda88]

1 year ago it was $1-2/share. Is $125 that far fetched? They have 4 vehicles already in their 6th year. Tesla had none in their 6th year.

326 shares. Peanuts compared to BMB.

Not bad compared to my low 100...

Imagine that stock get to $2000/share like Tesla in 5 years and you own 600 shares. You can basically say adios to pharmacy.

Come to think of it, I think I should try to own at least 300 shares. Lol. Losing 6k will not affect my life at all. On the other hand, if that stock takes off like Tesla, I will be sitting pretty well.

 

[mentos]

Not bad compared to my low 100...

Imagine that stock get to $2000/share like Tesla in 5 years and you own 600 shares. You can basically say adios to pharmacy.

Come to think of it, I think I should try to own at least 300 shares. Lol. Losing 6k will not affect my life at all. On the other hand, if that stock takes off like Tesla, I will be sitting pretty well.

Yeah maybe I'll try to get 500. That would be 1mil if it reaches $2000/share LoL.

 

[Splenda88]

Yeah maybe I'll try to get 500. That would be 1mil if it reaches $2000/share LoL.

Gonna try to increase my position to my target shares by the end of next month and call it a day.

 

[Splenda88]

Dumping bags of money into an investment is a bit nerve wracking but having done so with rental properties I am used to it.

I know the risk and I am comfortable with the risk vs benefits. Only time will tell.

To be honest, when I was buying my 1st investment property, I didn't think it was risky at all. And I dumped 30k down payment on that property. It has gained 200k in value base on Zillow, Realtor etc...

 

[Splenda88]

And if you live in a state like Texas, Washington, Florida you just have to pay 20% federal capital gain tax (assuming it is not going to change).

What if you turn around and purchase another stock with the money, will you still pain capital gain tax? I am not familiar with tax laws.

 

[wagrxm2000]

End of August update. I know there is one more day but I won't be able to update on Monday.

JPM: @wagrxm2000 +$28.75
NVDA: @Sine Cura +$239.22
BA: @lane one -$21.50
MELI: @PharmDBro2017 +$221.55
SQ: @msweph +$282.40
T: @redfish955 -$7.43
LULU: @owlegrad +$193.48
PLNT: @mentos +$81.85
WMT: @PharmDminus +$61.07
AZN: @WVUPharm2007 -$21.59
ROST: @Momus +$112.32

Cash reserve: $541.73
Original fund: $11,000.00
Current total: $12,185.68

S&P 500 up 9.36%
DOW up 7.36%
NASDAQ up 11.8%
SDN up 10.77%

Not bad after 1.5 months. Beating everything but the NASDAQ which no one compares their funds to it anyways.

I'm going to let @howard8 have my position in JP Morgan if he wants to give me a stock.

Also Tesla will be up for grabs Monday

As always trades aren't required but can be done at any time.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Are you counting dividend from T? Not expecting T to move much but the dividend should help.

Tesla is tempting. But not sure if I want to give up SQ yet. I think it'll hit 175+ before EOY unless we tank.

Yep dividends are being added. I think T got bought after the quarterly dividends.

I don't mind having conservative stocks. I bought JP Morgan since I thought we had a lot of high flyers.

 

[wagrxm2000]

NIO please

Ok I'll buy at open unless you want me to wait 30 minutes after all the crazy movement calms down.

 

[owlegrad]

Tempting to make a trade but why abandon a winning horse? Let it ride I say!

 

[WVUPharm2007]

End of August update. I know there is one more day but I won't be able to update on Monday.

JPM: @wagrxm2000 +$28.75
NVDA: @Sine Cura +$239.22
BA: @lane one -$21.50
MELI: @PharmDBro2017 +$221.55
SQ: @msweph +$282.40
T: @redfish955 -$7.43
LULU: @owlegrad +$193.48
PLNT: @mentos +$81.85
WMT: @PharmDminus +$61.07
AZN: @WVUPharm2007 -$21.59
ROST: @Momus +$112.32

Cash reserve: $541.73
Original fund: $11,000.00
Current total: $12,185.68

S&P 500 up 9.36%
DOW up 7.36%
NASDAQ up 11.8%
SDN up 10.77%

Not bad after 1.5 months. Beating everything but the NASDAQ which no one compares their funds to it anyways.

I'm going to let @howard8 have my position in JP Morgan if he wants to give me a stock.

Also Tesla will be up for grabs Monday

As always trades aren't required but can be done at any time.

My plan to lose all of your money is succeeding.

 

[wagrxm2000]

My plan to lose all of your money is succeeding.

You can always switch positions.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

You can always switch positions.

I think this is good. You won't let me pick JC Penney or Sears or short the S&P 500. I'll let this ride out and we'll see how much money we can lose.

 

[Dreamer716]

Hey guys not much of an active investor outside of retirement accounts but I wanted to ask if you guys think its worth buying stock in the major retailers (CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid) with a potential COVID vaccine coming out sometime next year. Just a thought

 

[Momus]

Hey guys not much of an active investor outside of retirement accounts but I wanted to ask if you guys think its worth buying stock in the major retailers (CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid) with a potential COVID vaccine coming out sometime next year. Just a thought

Covid vaccine comes out and the best thing you can think of is to buy CVS?

Please stick to index fund. You will never get less than the total market return.

 

[Thestrugglez]

Hey guys not much of an active investor outside of retirement accounts but I wanted to ask if you guys think its worth buying stock in the major retailers (CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid) with a potential COVID vaccine coming out sometime next year. Just a thought

You could literally buy almost anything and your returns will surpass CVS/WBA/RA. Your best bet is to just buy ETFs like VOO or QQQ.

On a side note, anybody know why CVS stock prices aren’t going up? With all their acquisitions and vertical integration, you’d think their stock would go up. They also had a phenomenal EPS last quarter.

 

[mentos]

You could literally buy almost anything and your returns will surpass CVS/WBA/RA. Your best bet is to just buy ETFs like VOO or QQQ.

On a side note, anybody know why CVS stock prices aren’t going up? With all their acquisitions and vertical integration, you’d think their stock would go up. They also had a phenomenal EPS last quarter.

CVS acquisitions are crap. Target the nonprofitable pharmacy. Omnicare under investigation for fraud and they lost all their nursing contracts. Aetna billions in debt. They would have been better off if they didn't buy anything.

 

[mentos]

Hey guys not much of an active investor outside of retirement accounts but I wanted to ask if you guys think its worth buying stock in the major retailers (CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid) with a potential COVID vaccine coming out sometime next year. Just a thought

Have you seen any of their stock prices in the past 5 years? They've all gone nowhere but down.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

CVS acquisitions are crap. Target the nonprofitable pharmacy. Omnicare under investigation for fraud and they lost all their nursing contracts. Aetna billions in debt. They would have been better off if they didn't buy anything.

Those Target pharmacies are apparently pretty profitable. It's a CVS with really cheap rent.

 

[PharmDBro2017]

Has anyone rebalanced their portfolio to a majority of vanguard growth index or are you staying the course with a regular 3 fund small/mid/large etc.

10k hsa but only started in 2019

 

[WVUPharm2007]

24k in my HSA.

Goal is to get out to the point where I can pay for all of my medical care with tax free capital gains.

 

[redfish955]

Coke, sales force, and t are all laying people off which should be good for the stock price over the next year.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

You are seeing once in a lifetime interest rates. The housing market should be hot. People are getting pre-approval letters with higher credit lines. The question is what happens when rates go back up.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I do not see how at any point we will ever be able to raise interest rates again.

What exactly is going to change?

Let's be honest with ourselves we are stuck in low inflation like Japan.

 

[mentos]

Those Target pharmacies are apparently pretty profitable. It's a CVS with really cheap rent.

Don't some of them do less than 100 scripts per day?

 

[mentos]

My HSA from previous employers had around 22k last time I checked. My current employer doesn't offer it so I can't contribute anymore

 

[footfairy]

I have not rebalanced but I have been buying just large caps and Chinese companies for a while now.

10 k in your HSA is not bad. I am a big surprise at how much my HSA has grown. At 65, your HSA becomes like your 401 k. No penalty for withdraw...just regular income tax.

You can even save your medical payment receipts from prior years and use them to withdrawal money tax free after 65. The money would stay triple tax advantaged the whole time. It would be more situational but it's something to consider.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

You can even save your medical payment receipts from prior years and use them to withdrawal money tax free after 65. The money would stay triple tax advantaged the whole time. It would be more situational but it's something to consider.

I got a Google drive filled with photos of medical receipts.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

My HSA from previous employers had around 22k last time I checked. My current employer doesn't offer it so I can't contribute anymore

Is your healthcare plan HSA eligible? Generally, if your deductible is more than $2800 it is considered a HDHP and you can start your own HSA somewhere like Fidelity.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I do not see how at any point we will ever be able to raise interest rates again.

What exactly is going to change?

Let's be honest with ourselves we are stuck in low inflation like Japan.

When the boomers finally lose their political clout, the millennials will pass laws that increase the wealth of the middle class. More people with more money means higher prices. I give it 8-12 years.