The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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What? Really? Does not seem like a stock they would buy at all


Cathie Wood is a huge supporter of Tesla, she still thinks it's undervalued.

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Would you guys still recommend a tech ETF while tech is still high? It seems like there's still a long way to fall.

Or should I go with an S&P like my retirement accounts?
 
Tech/ energy/ real estate etc ie niche funds would be too volatile and not guaranteed to provide steady returns.

Stick to 500.
 
ARKK has a higher 5 year return (37% vs 27%). I realize there's higher risk.


Wouldn't it be better to hold these kind of funds in your tax advantage accounts? I imagine a lot of turnover in an actively managed fund to give you that kind of return.
 
Wouldn't it be better to hold these kind of funds in your tax advantage accounts? I imagine a lot of turnover in an actively managed fund to give you that kind of return.

Yeah but I don't want to wait until I'm 67.5 to take out the money.
 
You mean 59.5?

Yeah whatever. I want some money now, not when I'm old. Who knows if I even live that long.

What do you have in your taxable account?
 
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I don't know if this answers any questions/concerns but we continue to add every two weeks to our index funds.

I do still think the market is way too high though.
 
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Was actually down 2% yesterday lol

Sorry what I meant was it is THE company for dividends.

Averaging in since 2000, you'd probably have an average cost around 30 and that includes the highs in the 50s and 40s plus the lows in the 20s.

But you got that sweet dividend along the way.

I'm curious what would happen if they sold direct TV at a loss.
 
What's better, ETFs or index funds for taxable account? Are they one in the same?
 
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Is T better than an index fund?
 
What's better, ETFs or index funds for taxable account? Are they one in the same?
If you're comparing an ETF and a mutual fund based on the same index, they will be pretty much the same but the ETF may have a tiny tax advantage because they usually don't have annual capital gain distributions. Thus you only pay taxes when you sell your ETF shares.

An index fund usually doesn't have capital gain distributions either because of their low turnover of stocks within the fund. However, if they do have to sell stocks to meet a massive amount of withdrawals, then there probably will be a capital gain distribution at the end of the year which is taxable even if you didn't sell your mutual fund shares.

Also note that Vanguard actually pools their mutual funds and corresponding ETFs so that their mutual funds don't have capital gain distributions either.
 
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Research has shown again and again that lump sum investing gives you better return than DCA strategy.

In other words, if you have 100k to invest, just dump all of it right now; don’t wait till tomorrow, or next month or next year. By using DCA strategy, you are just taking risk later on.

Market might seem too high right now, but it keeps hitting new all-time high all the times. So Dow might reach 50000 in next decade and today’s all time high would look peanuts 10 years down the road.

So throw your money into great compounding machine and watch it snowball.
 
Research has shown again and again that lump sum investing gives you better return than DCA strategy.

In other words, if you have 100k to invest, just dump all of it right now; don’t wait till tomorrow, or next month or next year. By using DCA strategy, you are just taking risk later on.

Market might seem too high right now, but it keeps hitting new all-time high all the times. So Dow might reach 50000 in next decade and today’s all time high would look peanuts 10 years down the road.

So throw your money into great compounding machine and watch it snowball.

Well I did that on February 20 and it took like 6 months to make it all back. Would have made way more if I DCA.
 
Well I did that on February 20 and it took like 6 months to make it all back. Would have made way more if I DCA.

Hindsight is 20/20.

What if there were no corona virus and Dow were 30000 right now? And corona is a black swan event. In a long-run market always goes up and you would miss out on dividend and re-investing if you just wait.

And you shouldn’t be investing into stock market in the first place if your time-frame is less than 20 years.
 
Hindsight is 20/20.

What if there were no corona virus and Dow were 30000 right now? And corona is a black swan event. In a long-run market always goes up and you would miss out on dividend and re-investing if you just wait.

And you shouldn’t be investing into stock market in the first place if your time-frame is less than 20 years.

Ok well my timeframe is within 19 years. Where do you suggest I put cash instead?

We are due for another correction. These valuations and PE ratios are crazy high.
 
We are due for another correction.

Been hearing this ever since I started investing which was 5 years ago :) Anyways many estimate this is a young bull and we are in a beginning phase.

Not that it should matter what “experts” say.
 
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Been hearing this ever since I started investing which was 5 years ago :) Anyways many estimate this is a young bull and we are in a beginning phase.

Not that it should matter what “experts” say.

Uh, 5 years ago was right in the middle of the bull run. AMZN was under $600/share back then. It's $3100/share now.
 
If you're comparing an ETF and a mutual fund based on the same index, they will be pretty much the same but the ETF may have a tiny tax advantage because they usually don't have annual capital gain distributions. Thus you only pay taxes when you sell your ETF shares.

An index fund usually doesn't have capital gain distributions either because of their low turnover of stocks within the fund. However, if they do have to sell stocks to meet a massive amount of withdrawals, then there probably will be a capital gain distribution at the end of the year which is taxable even if you didn't sell your mutual fund shares.

Also note that Vanguard actually pools their mutual funds and corresponding ETFs so that their mutual funds don't have capital gain distributions either.

What's in your taxable account?
 
What's in your taxable account?
Adding on, with Vanguard mutual funds, you can invest $1. Set auto deposit to your asset allocations to each funds (set % to each). Set it up and forget about it.

With ETF, you have to buy a whole share. ETF sometimes has lower expense ratio vs. admiral mutual funds. You can also buy and sell options with ETF. You can't do that with mutual funds.

I have mutual funds at Vanguard.
 
What's in your taxable account?
Years ago I set out to try to arrange my portfolio for best tax efficiency:

401k: index funds because that's pretty much the only good choice.

Roth IRA: speculative stocks because it's tax free even if you trade short term.

Taxable: Sector ETFs like VGT, VHT, VFH and I actually have a Vanguard growth index fund VIGAX. These are here because you can choose any fund you want as opposed to a 401k, and I want to be a lot more specific with the timing and sector that I'm buying. Since they are index funds, they are tax efficient as well.

I also bought the big 4 individual stocks: AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG in taxable. My original intentions were that I'd have no problems holding them >1 yr to take advantage of 15% long term capital gains tax rates, or even 0% if I retire early or get laid off so I'll have no more salary. But they turned out to be my best performing investments so now I have a ton of unrealized capital gains. Oh well, I suppose that's a good problem to have.
 
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Anyone here in their 30s or early 40s with portfolio (401k, IRA, HSA, ETF, Mutual funds, individual stocks etc...) over 1 mil excluding your home equity...
 
Anyone here in their 30s or early 40s with portfolio (401k, IRA, HSA, ETF, Mutual funds, individual stocks etc...) over 1 mil excluding your home equity...

Plenty.
 
Research has shown again and again that lump sum investing gives you better return than DCA strategy.

In other words, if you have 100k to invest, just dump all of it right now; don’t wait till tomorrow, or next month or next year. By using DCA strategy, you are just taking risk later on.

Market might seem too high right now, but it keeps hitting new all-time high all the times. So Dow might reach 50000 in next decade and today’s all time high would look peanuts 10 years down the road.

So throw your money into great compounding machine and watch it snowball.

Following thread I found on Reddit. It goes over same argument of market timing with examples. Interesting read.

Buy and Hold
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah all knew the value of buying and holding. And they all invested in the same thing: an S&P 500 index fund. Once they bought, they never sold and always reinvested dividends. But they had different strategies about when to jump into the market.

Two Market Timers
Tiffany and Brittany were aware that the stock market could be very volatile and they wanted to avoid market crashes. It turns out they were right as there were five significant market crashes during the last 41 years as shown here:

US Stock Market Crashes 1979-2020
Dates of CrashDuration (Days)Percent DropEvent
8/25/1987-12/4/198710133.4%Black Monday
7/16/1990-10/11/19908719.7%Kuwait War
9/1/2000-10/9/200276849.0%Dotcom Crash
10/12/2007-3/9/200951456.5%Financial Crisis
2/19/2020-3/23/20203334.1%COVID Crash
Tiffany Top invests at the top of the market
Tiffany, it turns out, has the world’s worst market timing. She saved her $200/month in a savings account getting 3% interest until the worst possible times. She started by saving for 8 years only to put her money in at the absolute market peak in 1987, right before Black Monday and the resulting 33% crash. But she never sold, and instead started saving her cash again, only to do the same at the next five market peaks. Each time she invested the full amount of her saved cash only to watch the market crash immediately after. Most recently she put all her money in the day before the 2020 COVID crash, only to see it immediately drop 34%. She’s been saving cash ever since waiting for the next market peak.

With this perfectly bad market timing, Tiffany still didn’t do too bad. Her $99,000 she saved and invested over the last 41 years is now worth $773,358. Even though she invested only at each market peak, her big nest egg is thanks to the power of buying and holding. Since she never sold, her investment always recovered and flourished as the market inevitably recovered far surpassing her original entry points.

Brittany Bottom invests at the bottom of the market
Brittany, in stark contrast to Tiffany, was omniscient. She also saved her money in a savings account earning 3% interest, but she correctly predicted the exact bottom of each of the five crashes and invested all of her saved cash on those days. Once invested, she also held her index fund while saving up for the next market crash. It can’t be overstated, how hard it is to predict the bottom of a market. In 1990 with war breaking out in the Middle East, Brittany decided to dump all her cash in when the market was only down 19%. But in 2007, the market dropped 19% and she didn’t jump in until it fell all the way down to a 56% drop, again perfectly predicting the exact moment it had no further to fall and dumped in all of her cash just in time for the recovery. Just this year in 2020, Brittany wisely waited until March 23rd to dump her savings into the market, buying at a steep 34% discount.

For this impossibly perfect market timing, Brittany Bottom was rewarded. Her $99,000 of savings has grown to $1,123,573 today. It’s certainly an improvement, but interesting to note that when comparing the absolute worst market timing versus the absolute best, the difference is only a 45% gain. Both Brittany and Tiffany have the vast majority of their growth thanks to buying and holding a low cost index fund.

Sarah Steady auto-invests every month
Sarah was different from her friends. She didn’t try to time market peaks or valleys. She didn’t watch stock prices or listen to doomsday predictions. In fact, she only did one thing. On the day she opened her account in 1979, she set up a $200 per month auto investment in an S&P 500 index fund. Then she never looked at her account again.

Each month her account would automatically invest $200 more in her index fund at whatever the current price happened to be. She invested at every market peak and every market bottom. She invested the first month and the last month and every month in between. But her money never sat in a savings account earning 3% interest.

When Sarah Steady was ready to retire, she signed up for online access to her account (since the internet had been invented since she last looked at it). She was pleasantly surprised with what she found. Her slow and steady approach had grown her nest egg to $1,620,708. Even though she didn’t have Brittany’s perfect ability to know the bottom of the market, Sarah’s investment crushed Brittany’s by about $500,000.

Recap
  • Amount Saved/Invested: $99,000 each
  • Investment: Buy and hold an S&P 500 index fund
  • Tiffany (worst timing in the world): $773,358
  • Brittany (best timing in the world): $1,123,573
  • Sarah (auto invests monthly): $1,620,708
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah aren’t real. No one can perfectly predict market tops or bottoms. But these numbers are real, based on the exact returns of an S&P 500 index fund and a 3% interest savings account over the last 41 years.

If you’re worried the market is too high and we’re due for a crash. Or you want to wait for the inevitable drop before you put your money in. Think about whether you’re so good at predicting the market you can do it better than Brittany who knew when to invest down to the exact day. And even if you are that good, realize that it’s still a losing strategy to the early and often approach that Sarah executed so flawlessly.
 
Following thread I found on Reddit. It goes over same argument of market timing with examples. Interesting read.

Buy and Hold
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah all knew the value of buying and holding. And they all invested in the same thing: an S&P 500 index fund. Once they bought, they never sold and always reinvested dividends. But they had different strategies about when to jump into the market.

Two Market Timers
Tiffany and Brittany were aware that the stock market could be very volatile and they wanted to avoid market crashes. It turns out they were right as there were five significant market crashes during the last 41 years as shown here:

US Stock Market Crashes 1979-2020
Dates of CrashDuration (Days)Percent DropEvent
8/25/1987-12/4/198710133.4%Black Monday
7/16/1990-10/11/19908719.7%Kuwait War
9/1/2000-10/9/200276849.0%Dotcom Crash
10/12/2007-3/9/200951456.5%Financial Crisis
2/19/2020-3/23/20203334.1%COVID Crash
Tiffany Top invests at the top of the market
Tiffany, it turns out, has the world’s worst market timing. She saved her $200/month in a savings account getting 3% interest until the worst possible times. She started by saving for 8 years only to put her money in at the absolute market peak in 1987, right before Black Monday and the resulting 33% crash. But she never sold, and instead started saving her cash again, only to do the same at the next five market peaks. Each time she invested the full amount of her saved cash only to watch the market crash immediately after. Most recently she put all her money in the day before the 2020 COVID crash, only to see it immediately drop 34%. She’s been saving cash ever since waiting for the next market peak.

With this perfectly bad market timing, Tiffany still didn’t do too bad. Her $99,000 she saved and invested over the last 41 years is now worth $773,358. Even though she invested only at each market peak, her big nest egg is thanks to the power of buying and holding. Since she never sold, her investment always recovered and flourished as the market inevitably recovered far surpassing her original entry points.

Brittany Bottom invests at the bottom of the market
Brittany, in stark contrast to Tiffany, was omniscient. She also saved her money in a savings account earning 3% interest, but she correctly predicted the exact bottom of each of the five crashes and invested all of her saved cash on those days. Once invested, she also held her index fund while saving up for the next market crash. It can’t be overstated, how hard it is to predict the bottom of a market. In 1990 with war breaking out in the Middle East, Brittany decided to dump all her cash in when the market was only down 19%. But in 2007, the market dropped 19% and she didn’t jump in until it fell all the way down to a 56% drop, again perfectly predicting the exact moment it had no further to fall and dumped in all of her cash just in time for the recovery. Just this year in 2020, Brittany wisely waited until March 23rd to dump her savings into the market, buying at a steep 34% discount.

For this impossibly perfect market timing, Brittany Bottom was rewarded. Her $99,000 of savings has grown to $1,123,573 today. It’s certainly an improvement, but interesting to note that when comparing the absolute worst market timing versus the absolute best, the difference is only a 45% gain. Both Brittany and Tiffany have the vast majority of their growth thanks to buying and holding a low cost index fund.

Sarah Steady auto-invests every month
Sarah was different from her friends. She didn’t try to time market peaks or valleys. She didn’t watch stock prices or listen to doomsday predictions. In fact, she only did one thing. On the day she opened her account in 1979, she set up a $200 per month auto investment in an S&P 500 index fund. Then she never looked at her account again.

Each month her account would automatically invest $200 more in her index fund at whatever the current price happened to be. She invested at every market peak and every market bottom. She invested the first month and the last month and every month in between. But her money never sat in a savings account earning 3% interest.

When Sarah Steady was ready to retire, she signed up for online access to her account (since the internet had been invented since she last looked at it). She was pleasantly surprised with what she found. Her slow and steady approach had grown her nest egg to $1,620,708. Even though she didn’t have Brittany’s perfect ability to know the bottom of the market, Sarah’s investment crushed Brittany’s by about $500,000.

Recap
  • Amount Saved/Invested: $99,000 each
  • Investment: Buy and hold an S&P 500 index fund
  • Tiffany (worst timing in the world): $773,358
  • Brittany (best timing in the world): $1,123,573
  • Sarah (auto invests monthly): $1,620,708
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah aren’t real. No one can perfectly predict market tops or bottoms. But these numbers are real, based on the exact returns of an S&P 500 index fund and a 3% interest savings account over the last 41 years.

If you’re worried the market is too high and we’re due for a crash. Or you want to wait for the inevitable drop before you put your money in. Think about whether you’re so good at predicting the market you can do it better than Brittany who knew when to invest down to the exact day. And even if you are that good, realize that it’s still a losing strategy to the early and often approach that Sarah executed so flawlessly.

So we should ignore Brittany's bottom and instead go steady with Sarah?

Jokes aside, great illustration of the perfect advice for pretty much anyone on this forum who wants a stable risk adverse way to retirement plan via the stock market.
 
Following thread I found on Reddit. It goes over same argument of market timing with examples. Interesting read.

Buy and Hold
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah all knew the value of buying and holding. And they all invested in the same thing: an S&P 500 index fund. Once they bought, they never sold and always reinvested dividends. But they had different strategies about when to jump into the market.

Two Market Timers
Tiffany and Brittany were aware that the stock market could be very volatile and they wanted to avoid market crashes. It turns out they were right as there were five significant market crashes during the last 41 years as shown here:

US Stock Market Crashes 1979-2020
Dates of CrashDuration (Days)Percent DropEvent
8/25/1987-12/4/198710133.4%Black Monday
7/16/1990-10/11/19908719.7%Kuwait War
9/1/2000-10/9/200276849.0%Dotcom Crash
10/12/2007-3/9/200951456.5%Financial Crisis
2/19/2020-3/23/20203334.1%COVID Crash
Tiffany Top invests at the top of the market
Tiffany, it turns out, has the world’s worst market timing. She saved her $200/month in a savings account getting 3% interest until the worst possible times. She started by saving for 8 years only to put her money in at the absolute market peak in 1987, right before Black Monday and the resulting 33% crash. But she never sold, and instead started saving her cash again, only to do the same at the next five market peaks. Each time she invested the full amount of her saved cash only to watch the market crash immediately after. Most recently she put all her money in the day before the 2020 COVID crash, only to see it immediately drop 34%. She’s been saving cash ever since waiting for the next market peak.

With this perfectly bad market timing, Tiffany still didn’t do too bad. Her $99,000 she saved and invested over the last 41 years is now worth $773,358. Even though she invested only at each market peak, her big nest egg is thanks to the power of buying and holding. Since she never sold, her investment always recovered and flourished as the market inevitably recovered far surpassing her original entry points.

Brittany Bottom invests at the bottom of the market
Brittany, in stark contrast to Tiffany, was omniscient. She also saved her money in a savings account earning 3% interest, but she correctly predicted the exact bottom of each of the five crashes and invested all of her saved cash on those days. Once invested, she also held her index fund while saving up for the next market crash. It can’t be overstated, how hard it is to predict the bottom of a market. In 1990 with war breaking out in the Middle East, Brittany decided to dump all her cash in when the market was only down 19%. But in 2007, the market dropped 19% and she didn’t jump in until it fell all the way down to a 56% drop, again perfectly predicting the exact moment it had no further to fall and dumped in all of her cash just in time for the recovery. Just this year in 2020, Brittany wisely waited until March 23rd to dump her savings into the market, buying at a steep 34% discount.

For this impossibly perfect market timing, Brittany Bottom was rewarded. Her $99,000 of savings has grown to $1,123,573 today. It’s certainly an improvement, but interesting to note that when comparing the absolute worst market timing versus the absolute best, the difference is only a 45% gain. Both Brittany and Tiffany have the vast majority of their growth thanks to buying and holding a low cost index fund.

Sarah Steady auto-invests every month
Sarah was different from her friends. She didn’t try to time market peaks or valleys. She didn’t watch stock prices or listen to doomsday predictions. In fact, she only did one thing. On the day she opened her account in 1979, she set up a $200 per month auto investment in an S&P 500 index fund. Then she never looked at her account again.

Each month her account would automatically invest $200 more in her index fund at whatever the current price happened to be. She invested at every market peak and every market bottom. She invested the first month and the last month and every month in between. But her money never sat in a savings account earning 3% interest.

When Sarah Steady was ready to retire, she signed up for online access to her account (since the internet had been invented since she last looked at it). She was pleasantly surprised with what she found. Her slow and steady approach had grown her nest egg to $1,620,708. Even though she didn’t have Brittany’s perfect ability to know the bottom of the market, Sarah’s investment crushed Brittany’s by about $500,000.

Recap
  • Amount Saved/Invested: $99,000 each
  • Investment: Buy and hold an S&P 500 index fund
  • Tiffany (worst timing in the world): $773,358
  • Brittany (best timing in the world): $1,123,573
  • Sarah (auto invests monthly): $1,620,708
Tiffany, Brittany and Sarah aren’t real. No one can perfectly predict market tops or bottoms. But these numbers are real, based on the exact returns of an S&P 500 index fund and a 3% interest savings account over the last 41 years.

If you’re worried the market is too high and we’re due for a crash. Or you want to wait for the inevitable drop before you put your money in. Think about whether you’re so good at predicting the market you can do it better than Brittany who knew when to invest down to the exact day. And even if you are that good, realize that it’s still a losing strategy to the early and often approach that Sarah executed so flawlessly.

If Brittany and Tiffany had invested all their $99k in lump-sum regardless of market high/ low, their returns would have suppressed Sarah.

The example you gave sort of proves my point actually.

Both Britney and Tiffany hoarded cash and waited for their opportunity missing out on dividends in process. That’s not the wise approach.
 
I don't think anyone is questioning time in vs time out of the market.

People should keep it simple. You need to set your allocation of stocks/nonstocks at a percent you are comfortable with no matter what happens.

When we fell 30%, there was no point that I was getting concerned since I had a comfortable amount outside of stocks.

Side note, my bond portfolio is beating the market so I guess I chose correct for the year.
 
If Brittany and Tiffany had invested all their $99k in lump-sum regardless of market high/ low, their returns would have suppressed Sarah.

The example you gave sort of proves my point actually.

Both Britney and Tiffany hoarded cash and waited for their opportunity missing out on dividends in process. That’s not the wise approach.

That example isn't analogous to my situation. I'm not hoarding all my cash for one lump sum deposit. I'm going to DCA like Sarah Steady who comes out on top.
 
That example isn't analogous to my situation. I'm not hoarding all my cash for one lump sum deposit. I'm going to DCA like Sarah Steady who comes out on top.

Of course you should DCA it. The point I am making is if you have 50k of cold cash sitting, then you should put all that in rather than doing $1k every two week.

Now as we earn through our paycheck, we should also set up auto-contribution with the portion of that pay check invested every two weeks.
 
Of course you should DCA it. The point I am making is if you have 50k of cold cash sitting, then you should put all that in rather than doing $1k every two week.

You just said two different things.
 
You just said two different things.

If you have spare money to invest, you would be better off throwing everything altogether in the market rather than dividing it over the period of time.

Most of us have steady income. So, our net worth increase as we earn more. So, you should also continue auto-contribution as you earn more with each pay check. That’s how 401k works; you contribute with each pay check.

Makes sense?
 
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Who are we kidding here?

You guys do the exact opposite of these illustrations. Market is at all time high, time to buy more individual stocks. Market drops 10%, imma sell fuken everything, I feel the corrections coming LMAO. This thread is the epitome of worse market timers. You are all a bunch of Tiffany.
 
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Who are we kidding here?

You guys do the exact opposite of these illustrations. Market is at all time high, time to buy more individual stocks. Market drops 10%, imma sell fuken everything, I feel the corrections coming LMAO. This thread is the epitome of worse market timers. You are all a bunch of Tiffany.


I'm enjoying this thread, you are getting over 10% discount on QQQ.

What has changed? If you thought we weren't overbought in the beginning of the month, you should be buying now.
 
Who are we kidding here?

You guys do the exact opposite of these illustrations. Market is at all time high, time to buy more individual stocks. Market drops 10%, imma sell fuken everything, I feel the corrections coming LMAO. This thread is the epitome of worse market timers. You are all a bunch of Tiffany.

You aren't wrong. Everyone should compose an investment policy statement and stick with that.
 
Who are we kidding here?

You guys do the exact opposite of these illustrations. Market is at all time high, time to buy more individual stocks. Market drops 10%, imma sell fuken everything, I feel the corrections coming LMAO. This thread is the epitome of worse market timers. You are all a bunch of Tiffany.

What's in your taxable account?
 
You aren't wrong. Everyone should compose an investment policy statement and stick with that.

Mikey's investment strategy:

1) Put everything into a diversified, cheap index mix using dollar cost averaging.
2) Hold for a few decades. Ignore the market.

That was easy.
 
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Most people don't even have a life statement other than to do things that are fun including those things that could lead to procreation
 
No need to overcomplicate things. It's very simple, and in times when the market is crazy, it's a simple reminder to stay your course.

I guess.

I also don't do vision boards either.

Just set it and forget it.
 
Anyone buying NKLA at the open?
 
Isn't Nikola the next Theranos? Seems FAF
 
MSFT looks like a good buy today.
 
Anyone buy the AMZN or GOOGL dips today?
 
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