The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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KCAB said:
Do you dispute the numbers? It is basically math at this point.

You can say the same thing about global warming. I have been hearing about it my whole life but that doesn’t mean it is not already here.
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I do not dispute the numbers. I don’t even disagree with your conclusions really. But the truth is we don’t know how much debt is too much. It’s something we have heard about it feels like forever. Sure eventually it really will be too much but no one knows when that will be. Or if you do, let us know please.

I don’t think it’s like global warming since we have a really good idea how much warming is too much. It is like global warming in the sense that we have heard about it forever and too many people don’t even believe it is real. ;)
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When will car prices become normal again?
 
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mentos said:
When will car prices become normal again?
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Now you are talking my language!
Don't know nothing about stocks/bonds/ or investments! Can't help you with the national debt! Don't ask me about drug information!
BUT I know my cars!
The higher automobile prices, new and used were a result of severe supply chain disruptions, worldwide pandemic, and chip shortage. Basically high demand and low supply. It hit in approximately March 2022, which is mid-cycle for Auto Manufacturing 12-month period. From Raw material to Showroom, it's a 6 month process (I know Detroit finishes a car in 45 minutes on an assembly line)! A typical family sedan consists of over 30,000 separate parts. There are over 1,000 chips in a car, over 2,000 in EVs. There are over 100 different parts suppliers that supply those parts! Add to this, the greedy dealerships and you have the total picture.

When would the price become normal again?, same time the world goes back to normal, which is never!
Prices will , and have come down, a bit.
 
mentos said:
I gave up on international stocks. They haven't had any gains in 10+ years.
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I almost took this approach but I feel as though every sector has its moment eventually. Over a longer horizon international vs domestic have changed hands often in terms of better performance but yeah international has definitely been dead money in recent history. If you believe in Bogle's reversion to the mean mindset then international is due for some breakout years
 
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Prepharm1214 said:
I almost took this approach but I feel as though every sector has its moment eventually. Over a longer horizon international vs domestic have changed hands often in terms of better performance but yeah international has definitely been dead money in recent history. If you believe in Bogle's reversion to the mean mindset then international is due for some breakout years
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I agree. It seems to me the key in investing is to have a process that works and stick to it. Getting out of international stocks because they haven’t been performing during the last cycle is a good way to miss their rebound during the next cycle. Also it’s exactly when everyone gives up on an asset class that it reaches its nadar.

Having said that, there is nothing wrong with getting out of international stocks…provided you don’t jump back in after they have recovered and you miss out on the breakout.

Dollar cost average and forget about it.
 
KCAB said:
The Fed is desperately trying to control inflation by restricting money in the market while the government keeps on spending more and more from $60B on the stupid war in Ukraine to $300B in student loan forgiveness. You can’t have it both ways.
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right? you fight inflation by reducing deficit, not increasing it. think how much less revenue the govt will be receiving in capital gains taxes in 2022 compared to 2021
 
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So with Russia being shown to be a paper tiger, their entire soft power apparatus is crumbling. While Russia are a bunch of pricks, the fear of their military did stabilize Central Asia. Now nobody fears them. CTSO (Russia's dollar store version of NATO) has effectively dissolved as a legitimate security pact. These CTSO countries are now starting their own little wars with each other.

Armenia (whose sovereignty is guaranteed by Russia) being attacked by Azerbaijan, who just left CTSO and is now getting security guarantees from China.

Skirmishes on the Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan border are being reported.

Kazakhstan just straight up announced they are not abiding by CTSO.

The entire Russian site of influence is crumbling and it's likely going to have further reaching consequences than you'd think.
 
Prepharm1214 said:
I almost took this approach but I feel as though every sector has its moment eventually. Over a longer horizon international vs domestic have changed hands often in terms of better performance but yeah international has definitely been dead money in recent history. If you believe in Bogle's reversion to the mean mindset then international is due for some breakout years
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I like Bogleheads but I think they're outdated now. The 3 fund portfolio of large cap index, international index and bonds was good for the old boomers, but who knows now. Even Bogleheads followers have argued that bonds are unnecessary in a portfolio. Their philosophy is to sell all individual stocks immediately and go all in index funds. I had some AMZN shares at 1300 a few years ago and they convinced me to sell, and I lost out on a lot of gains.
 
mentos said:
I like Bogleheads but I think they're outdated now. The 3 fund portfolio of large cap index, international index and bonds was good for the old boomers, but who knows now. Even Bogleheads followers have argued that bonds are unnecessary in a portfolio. Their philosophy is to sell all individual stocks immediately and go all in index funds. I had some AMZN shares at 1300 a few years ago and they convinced me to sell, and I lost out on a lot of gains.
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Did you buy any after the split?
 
mentos said:
I like Bogleheads but I think they're outdated now. The 3 fund portfolio of large cap index, international index and bonds was good for the old boomers, but who knows now. Even Bogleheads followers have argued that bonds are unnecessary in a portfolio. Their philosophy is to sell all individual stocks immediately and go all in index funds. I had some AMZN shares at 1300 a few years ago and they convinced me to sell, and I lost out on a lot of gains.
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i agree to an extent. i got out of bonds completely a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. nowhere for bonds to go but down from there. also i am underweight international. been DCA’ing SPY. wondering when and how to reduce exposure to stocks though. i am 38 now. if SPY hit ATH again it is probably time to start shifting some to safer investments. problem is, by the time SPY hits ATH again we will be back to low rates and there wont be good returns on anything safe
 
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WVUPharm2007 said:


Anybody getting a Vinfast?
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I didn't know Vietnam even had any carmakers until this year. They look cool, but why would anyone get this instead of proven Asian EV manufacturers like Kia/Hyundai or Nissan? Without the tax credit, I don't see it selling well.

Assuming it launches on schedule, the Chevy Equinox EV looks like the best value followed by Tennessee made VW ID4.
 
My prediction: KCAB will cherry pick headlines that support that narrative and discount any opposing headlines and ignore any periods of time or markets that don’t fit the narrative.
 
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KCAB said:
Get real. Yeah, let me cherry pick headlines that indicate the stock market is doing well when the number shows it is down.

Numbers will indicate whether I am right or wrong. If anything, I want to be wrong. I am a big investor in real estate. My stock portfolio is down at least $300 k.
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Danm... I hope you are not near retirement..

I understand why some advise to have a 2-yr [emergency] living expenses if your money is in the market when you retire.
 
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KCAB said:
With covid and the war in Ukraine, there is a sense of hopelessness and live for today mentality which has greatly contributed to inflation and made it difficult for the Fed to control inflation.

Why work OT when the world can end tomorrow? Why work at all? You want that nice car? Get it today because there might not be a tomorrow.

A rich man who dies young is the biggest loser.
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I always think about that famous quote from a fellow physician:"Being old and broke is a bad combination brother."
 
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US Dollar index up to 110. The strongest dollar since the early 00s. Inflation isn't because of a weakening dollar, I can assure you that.

Again...it's mostly being driven by two things.

1) Wages on the lower end have increased dramatically. People making $11 a hour in 2019 are making $17 an hour today. These people will spend a much larger percentage of their wages. So a downwage shift of the fruits of the economy will naturally inflate prices. I don't understand why this isn't being talked about as much. We haven't seen this large of a class downward shift in wages in our lifetimes.

2) The global supply chain hell is still destroying supply. Obviously, every has been talking about this.

People in the US have a very myopic view of the world. Like the US is the only country dealing with inflation and it must be because of something the US did. Nah, it's not. It's because Asia is still half shut down and poor people actually have money to spend.
 
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KCAB said:
You better tell the Fed to stop raising interest rates then. Raising interest rates won’t solve a supply chain issue!
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I know, that's why I'm afraid that there will be an overcorrection and we'll snap back into deflation. And they are, too. They aren't dumb. They know what is fueling inflation. It's an incredibly complex situation to try to take from the money supply side of the equation.
 
Putin calls for a mobilization. Russian men are fleeing the country.

www.reuters.com

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up

One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Putin just keeps digging the hole deeper.
 
We were doing well (pharmacy profession excluded) in 2018-2019 with similar interest rates, an intact supply chain, more labor force participants, and a ton less national debt and recent stimulus.
 
Back to the stagflation period of the 70’s with high inflation and no growth in index funds?

Going to remain 50% VXUS. A strong dollar makes foreign producers of goods and services more competitive.
 
Wow, getting close to dollar-pound parity. That's nuts.

Not going to try to pretend I have any idea WTF is going to happen to the economy or stock market. What's going on has never happened before.
 
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KCAB said:
Bear trap. S&P 500 is back into bear territory.

Hold your fire. Stock market won’t get better until something break and the Fed reverses course…probably in late 2023 or 2024.

The stock market is stuck on a sugar high from the Fed. The easy monetary policy has been the main driver of gains since 2009. Now we have to deal with the aftermath…high inflation + slow growth.
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How is it a bear trap if it's back in bear territory?
 
Noemata said:
Yep, DXY is rising and rising...
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Honestly, if you plan on seeing Europe in your lifetime, it's almost irresponsible not to go now. You'll never see discounts like this ever again. Get a credit card with no foreign transaction fees, buy everything in Pounds and Euros. Huge discounts right now on European airlines and hotels.
 
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KCAB said:
“What Is a Bear Trap? A bear trap is a technical pattern that occurs when the price action of a stock, index, or another financial instrument incorrectly signals a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend.”

www.investopedia.com

What Is a Bear Trap?

A bear trap denotes a decline that fools market participants into opening short positions ahead of an upside reversal that squeezes those positions into losses.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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A bear trap is when the market/stock looks like it will go down, it attracts bears (people that short stocks). Then when the market goes back up, the bears lose money.

A bull trap is the opposite, the market looks like it will go up, attracting bulls. They buy stocks, and then the market goes down, they lose money.
 
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KCAB said:
“What Is a Bear Trap? A bear trap is a technical pattern that occurs when the price action of a stock, index, or another financial instrument incorrectly signals a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend.”

www.investopedia.com

What Is a Bear Trap?

A bear trap denotes a decline that fools market participants into opening short positions ahead of an upside reversal that squeezes those positions into losses.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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Exactly... You just said the market won't get better until next year. Are you saying it's going to go up now? That's what a bear trap is.
 
Im just going to stay the course. Max out everything. Then I am going to build up my emergency fund some.
 
KCAB said:
Europe is going to elect right wing candidates so they can get out of NATO and avoid paying $350b to rebuild Ukraine:
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I doubt it. Maybe the European version of right wing, which is, like, Joe Biden. And $350b is a rounding error to the West. Having the breadbasket of Europe in the fold is easily worth that. Add in their strategic location close to Moscow and its a bargain.
 
KCAB said:
You are joking right? Out of the $80b spent so far, most of it is from the US. A tiny bit is from UK. The rest of Europe is just sitting on its hands. The Germans won’t even send their tanks as promised.

How are you going to send billions to Ukraine when your own citizens can’t even afford heat during winter and are facing record inflation? Where are you going to get the money from? Makes no sense.

These European politicians are all talks. They are more concerned about being re-elected than the Ukrainians.

And for the US…if Russia used a tactical nuclear, what is Biden going to do? Strike the launching site with a tactical nuclear? If I am at the site, I am going to launch the rest of my nuclear warheads. Might as well.

www.reuters.com

U.S. warns Putin of 'catastrophic' consequences over nuclear weapons

The United States would respond decisively to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and has spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences" it would face, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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It will be funded.

Russia isn't going to use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. It would be stupid on an unimaginable level. China will turn on them completely. NATO gloves will be off. It would be suicide. Putin made a miscalculation and he can't get over the sunk cost. More Russians will die. And, eventually, Ukraine will take its territory back.
 
KCAB said:
Macron and Scholz are going to China in November.

amp.scmp.com

Chinese envoys help plan likely visits to Beijing by French and German leaders

Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron are expected to meet Xi Jinping in November, the first such visit by European leaders since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
amp.scmp.com amp.scmp.com

They are going to come to an agreement. They are going to recognize all or most of the occupied territories and Russian gas will pump into Europe once again. The US can keep on supplying Ukraine with weapons if it chooses but destroying Russia economy is now off the table.

Americans are already questioning why we are sending billions and billions to Ukraine on a war that is not winnable while inflation keeps going up and up.
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It's not really up to France/Germany and China. Russia isn't going to stop until Putin is deposed or they are decisively defeated. Ukraine isn't going to stop until they have their land back.

And decimating one of the biggest military threats to the US at bargain basement prices is a masterclass of realpolitik.

Only complete idiots aren't supporting the continued funding of the UAF right now. Why wouldn't the West do what they are doing?

Seriously my man, you have no idea wtf you are talking about and it amuses me.
 
KCAB said:
Homeowners don’t want to give up their historical low mortgage rate and sell. This could limit supply.

www.wsj.com

After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce

Many homeowners locked in the “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage costs find it too daunting to sell their homes now that rates are so much higher.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Yep I don't know why anyone who refinanced in 2020-21 would sell now unless forced to or moving to a lower cost of living area. Interest rates are almost 7% now.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
I doubt it. Maybe the European version of right wing, which is, like, Joe Biden. And $350b is a rounding error to the West. Having the breadbasket of Europe in the fold is easily worth that. Add in their strategic location close to Moscow and its a bargain.
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It's good to see some people in the US notice that.

The right wing version in western Europe is a leftist democrat at best or a semi conservative (eg., Kyrsten Sinema) democrat at worst.
 
owlegrad said:
Strongly agree. I love my
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If anything, I will lease it out before I sell, especially with how tax laws are around here.

(I think this is my first post in this thread, lol… I feel like I walked into a room where everyone is talking and no one is listening).
 
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Those who refinanced or bought in the last 2 years aren’t going to want to sell, unless if they want to buy a new home at a much higher mortgage rate and possibly take a huge loss on their sale if home prices fall.

Many workers will be stuck in their homes and employers may take advantage. It’s not looking good for those who are currently stuck working at CVS and bought a home recently.
 
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KCAB said:
Doesn’t sound like Biden to me:

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I didn’t detect anything intelligible in that rant. All I got from it was “financial speculators are evil” which hardly seems like a right wing talking point to me. I admit I am totally ignorant of her politics though and could be way off base.
 
The guy in office now, Draghi, is a central banker. That makes her rant make a lot more sense. If you want any context. It's Italy. She'll be in office for like 18 months before this one collapses, too. Christian Italian Mother, lmao.
 
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WVUPharm2007 said:
The guy in office now, Draghi, is a central banker. That makes her rant make a lot more sense. If you want any context. It's Italy. She'll be in office for like 18 months before this one collapses, too. Christian Italian Mother, lmao.
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Ah yes that context is very helpful thanks
 
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