The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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wagrxm2000 said:
He's up approximately 10% give or take a percent so $800k.

Left a lot of money on the table by not investing in banks, industrials, and defense. Could have been up by that in just the past month.
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You do that over time you'll be dead wrong eventually and lose a lot of money, too. Over the long haul, nobody beats the casino.
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WVUPharm2007 said:
You do that over time you'll be dead wrong eventually and lose a lot of money, too. Over the long haul, nobody beats the casino.
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You don't do it all the time. I wasn't really involved in the market from may on.

This was an obvious move that even indexers should have done it. Deregulate the banks and more spending. Big money is going to move before anything happens. Should be an interesting next year and I'm ready if I see any panic.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
He's up approximately 10% give or take a percent so $800k.

Left a lot of money on the table by not investing in banks, industrials, and defense. Could have been up by that in just the past month.
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Yeah and I could have turned 1k into millions this year if I made the best trade every day
 
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owlegrad said:
Interesting how things are obvious after the fact. Why not tell us in advance about these super easy/obvious trades? I for one am not tired of winning yet.

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I buy and sell too much to do that. If you look at my nov 19th post, I'm not an advisor. If I'm wrong I'll either get out or double down. I can't tell someone with $1000 to do that plus they shouldn't be buying stocks anyways with the small gains they would get out of it.

If you look at that post though there were some ideas. I said expected growth will help the banks, had you bought that day you'd be up about 6%. I also talked a little about resistance and a few stocks. Disney held above 100 and has since soared. Fb has also gone up about 5%.

If I post what I buy, I'd have to put everything I do or I would either get called out or I'd look like a genius. I could very easily say fb will hit 130 before the s&p500 moves up another 10%, but I don't want someone sitting on fb when they could be somewhere else.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
I buy and sell too much to do that. If you look at my nov 19th post, I'm not an advisor. If I'm wrong I'll either get out or double down. I can't tell someone with $1000 to do that plus they shouldn't be buying stocks anyways with the small gains they would get out of it.

If you look at that post though there were some ideas. I said expected growth will help the banks, had you bought that day you'd be up about 6%. I also talked a little about resistance and a few stocks. Disney held above 100 and has since soared. Fb has also gone up about 5%.

If I post what I buy, I'd have to put everything I do or I would either get called out or I'd look like a genius. I could very easily say fb will hit 130 before the s&p500 moves up another 10%, but I don't want someone sitting on fb when they could be somewhere else.
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Come on! We want to see the genius at work. Post your bets.

Man, what happened to the short sellers?


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BMBiology said:
Come on! We want to see the genius at work. Post your bets.

Man, what happened to the short sellers?


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The one short seller messaged me that he shorted sbux at 61,depending on when or if he sold, he actually did well on it.

He also said he was long on sgen at under 40 and its currently over 65 so I gotta say I appreciate the info on stocks others have studied.
 
I'll post a couple stock ideas periodically, to show some of my investments.
Today's stock is Northern Dynasty: NAK. Currently Trading at $1.75

Rationale: NAK has the word's largest deposits of gold and copper. It is located in Alaska so it doesn't have the geopolitical instability of the South American mines. In 2011, the prior high was $20. The stock was slammed because the EPA is refusing permits for NAK. It went down to below 0.30 cents at one point. EPA cited mining contamination and threats to endangered salmon as the primary reason not to perform a review for licensing.
This was controversial and others argue that NAK has a small impact on the local waters. If NAK mining is approved by the EPA it will create a major economic boon in that area of Alaska.

This is all well and good but it didn't become a good investment, in my opinion, until Donald Trump got elected. Trump is currently working on his new EPA appointment. One of the names being thrown around has signed a letter of support for NAK in the past. NAK looks like a certainty under the Trump administration. In fact, I put a third of my trading account in NAK (price average all under .90 cents) the morning after trump was elected. NAK has already more than doubled since the election, however that is just the tip of the iceberg.
If this project gets approved it could easily skyrocket 5-10x or more almost immediately. If you look at the volume coming into the chart of NAK there has been a massive increase. Investors are pouring millions of dollars into this stock right now.
The stock would actually be much higher right now, but gold futures have been down with the strengthening dollar and upcoming interest rate increases.

Once Trump's new EPA head is announced, expect this stock to accelerate even more.
There are certainly issues with the stock, but it has the most potential out of any stock I've ever seen. But remember that it is highly volatile and it is only best to buy it on dips. The massive volume pouring into the stock is creating a base of support that is preventing some of the massive drops that have occurred in the past.
 
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msweph said:
Did you sell rad today? Thinking about it and hoping it dips again
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I've taken all profits and additional money out but I still have my original investment. There's still another 6% I want out of this. I've built a 14% profit trading this on dips now so I'm willing to see a dip and buy more.
 
owlegrad said:
Well, even if I end up missing out at least I made a profit. Probably not bad for my first time! :)
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Premature selling happens to everyone during their first time, right?
 
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CVS is coming back, where's that guy who dumped everything at $73? :(
 
Momus said:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-you-explained-in-one-simple-chart-2016-12-07

Single filer rph will get 5% increase in tax bracket. Thanks to Trump. Close to $4000 more additional tax burden @190k.
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You are single...why do you need that much money? You are going to get hit with higher income tax and higher capital gain tax.

The standard $15 k deduction is going to take a bite out of your mortgage interest rate deduction. It would suck if he also rid of state tax as a tax deduction. Both of these changes are going to hurt people living in California. Pay back for not voting for him?

Isn't he going to get rid of AMT? That should help you.

If they double HSA max contribution, that is another 3 k in tax deduction.


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Momus said:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-you-explained-in-one-simple-chart-2016-12-07

Single filer rph will get 5% increase in tax bracket. Thanks to Trump. Close to $4000 more additional tax burden @190k.
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I don't think the average single filer pharmacist makes 190k? I'll try 125k:

Current:
[10%] 0-9,275: 927.50
[15%] 9,275-37,650: 4,256.25
[25%] 37,650-91,150: 13,375.00
[28%] 91,150-125,000: 9,478.00
Total: 28,036.75 (With 6,300 deduction: 26,272.75)
Trump:
[12%] 0-37,500: 4,500.00
[25%] 37,500-112,500: 18,750.00
[33%] 112,500-125,000: 4,125.00
Total: 27,375.00 (With 6,300 deduction: 25,296.00)

Both tax plans suck ass.
 
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ldiot said:
I don't think the average single filer pharmacist makes 190k? I'll try 125k:

Current:
[10%] 0-9,275: 927.50
[15%] 9,275-37,650: 4,256.25
[25%] 37,650-91,150: 13,375.00
[28%] 91,150-125,000: 9,478.00
Total: 28,036.75 (With 6,300 deduction: 26,272.75)
Trump:
[12%] 0-37,500: 4,500.00
[25%] 37,500-112,500: 18,750.00
[33%] 112,500-125,000: 4,125.00
Total: 27,375.00 (With 6,300 deduction: 25,296.00)

Both tax plans suck ass.
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Trumps deduction would be 15k, not 6300. This is all speculative anyways, i highly doubt the House would approve that big of a revenue cut.
 
PharmDminus said:
Trumps deduction would be 15k, not 6300. This is all speculative anyways, i highly doubt the House would approve that big of a revenue cut.
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I was more or less just trying to compare the brackets themselves. With a 15k deduction the highest marginal tax rate would be 25% at 125k taxable income and the total savings would be just over 5k. Like you said who knows what will actually pass, I'd probably consider a 5k tax cut the best case scenario.
 
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Man people better hope trump comes through, we're now up over 8% since the November low on expectations only. This strong dollar and next earnings quarter could really bring us back down if companies don't increase their guidance.
 
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pezdispenser said:
What happened? CMG back down at $375 now.
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You need to have a stomach that can handle something like e.coli when you own chipotle stocks.


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wagrxm2000 said:
Goodbye gold
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Are you even looking at the Shanghai price?

You know what's not priced into the markets? A RMB devaluation...against the dollar and even more so gold. As Hendry said," If the RMB devalues by 20%, it's simply the end of the world."

Watch the cross rates. Weakening yen and strengthening dollar will only force the PBoC to let the RMB float. This is on nobody's radar.

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/
 
I live in the us of a where the dollar is king. Gold is now at a 10 month low meaning since gold bugs are constantly buying they've lost money for another year.
 
If the dollar is king then why aren't the banks rolling over the 10T in Eurodollar debt at low rates? What do they see coming?
 
Rad!!! Easiest trade of the year.
 
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This rising USD is not your pappy's rising dollar indicative of a rising national economy. Since the 80's the USD, or more specifically the Eurodollar, has become the defacto one world currency. So this time a rising dollar indicates rising NPL cycle...globally.

Watch the RMB. Watch SAFE reserves. Watch the Yen. Watch the Eurodollar banks.
 
Oh the beauty of wash sales... which I don't have to worry ever again until I'm old. Don't know why people continue to trade for lower returns and TINY part of their wealth EXPECTING outsized return boggle my mind.

Merry Christmas to all.

(Off to play PS4 and binging food for the whole day).
 
msweph said:
I have a question I hope someone can help me answer-

1. I bought a stock on 11/18/2016, it declined in value and I bought more on 11/22/2016. Sadly, it continued to decrease in value and I hit my first stop loss on 12/21/2016, and my second stop loss on 12/22/2016. Will I be able to deduct these as capital losses? I'm not sure if this qualifies as a wash sale or not.

2. I sold 100 shares of stock at a loss. It looked like it was turning around, so I rebought 25 shares... Forgetting (because I was at a family get together) that I had just sold this stock at a loss 2 weeks ago. Is only part of the loss deductible or is all of it?

Thanks for your help!
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1. The sale on 12/21 was a wash sale, but providing that you sold your entire holding, then you still get to deduct your full loss like this:
- 12/21 wash sale, so the loss gets added to the cost basis of the shares bought on 11/22.
- on 12/22 you sold those shares as well, so on this transaction you take the loss plus the wash sale loss that was added to the cost basis.

2. You can take the loss for 75 shares, but the loss on 25 shares will have to be added to the cost basis of the 25 shares that you rebought.
 
There's going to come a day when this market finally tanks and everyone who isn't protecting themselves is finally going to see the error in their ways.
 
msweph said:
I ended up holding. Made all my losses back plus about $200. Will probably let it dip back down and re-buy in again.
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Well done, what did you make like 20%? Isn't this so much more fun then just letting it sit there in an index fund?
 
pharm B said:
How many of you bother with individual stocks versus index funds? I initially kept a small portfolio, but now most of my stuff is just in Vanguard.


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Stocks are solely with play money. Your retirement plan should go into index funds.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Stocks are solely with play money. Your retirement plan should go into index funds.
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pharm B said:
How many of you bother with individual stocks versus index funds? I initially kept a small portfolio, but now most of my stuff is just in Vanguard.


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I have almost my whole retirement in stocks. Had an especially great year this year, even more so post election. However I typically pull my money out after just a few days to weeks. Nvda is my longest investment from 33 this past year.

A lot of people follow the standard advice of only using index funds... not bad advice, but ive never found it that difficult to beat the index funds as an individual investor. As an individual investor it is actually much easier to trade in and out of markets. Mutual funds have great difficulty finding liquidity because they have so much capital.

When you use proper risk control and position sizing stock investing becomes less risky. This year I had almost 10 100% plus stocks. Nvda netted me over 300%. My worst loss was 35% in rigl because I lost track of them trial dates. Usually I cut losses at 7% or less. Stocks can be very lucrative, but I work only with momentum stocks and volatile stocks with huge catalysts. These are actually much more predictable to me than the blue chip stocks that most people invest in.
 
MatCauthon said:
I have almost my whole retirement in stocks. Had an especially great year this year, even more so post election. However I typically pull my money out after just a few days to weeks. Nvda is my longest investment from 33 this past year.

A lot of people follow the standard advice of only using index funds... not bad advice, but ive never found it that difficult to beat the index funds as an individual investor. As an individual investor it is actually much easier to trade in and out of markets. Mutual funds have great difficulty finding liquidity because they have so much capital.

When you use proper risk control and position sizing stock investing becomes less risky. This year I had almost 10 100% plus stocks. Nvda netted me over 300%. My worst loss was 35% in rigl because I lost track of them trial dates. Usually I cut losses at 7% or less. Stocks can be very lucrative, but I work only with momentum stocks and volatile stocks with huge catalysts. These are actually much more predictable to me than the blue chip stocks that most people invest in.
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It's not about difficulty, its for sound of mind. Calculate your retirement based on high and low end returns. When you feel the numbers both work for you, the rest is play money. Otherwise you are gambling.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
It's not about difficulty, its for sound of mind. Calculate your retirement based on high and low end returns. When you feel the numbers both work for you, the rest is play money. Otherwise you are gambling.
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One could call any form of investment a gamble as the return is never guaranteed. Get in the market and get out, no need for attachment. I actually have a sounder mind not keeping my money in an index fun because I have less of my portfolio exposed at any one time. I typically only keep 10-50% of my money in the market at any one time. There are many studies that demonstrate investment strategies handily beating the index funds. The most notable studies are on selling premium in the index options-- these have netted a 25% annualized return for the past 30 years.
 
MatCauthon said:
One could call any form of investment a gamble as the return is never guaranteed. Get in the market and get out, no need for attachment. I actually have a sounder mind not keeping my money in an index fun because I have less of my portfolio exposed at any one time. I typically only keep 10-50% of my money in the market at any one time. There are many studies that demonstrate investment strategies handily beating the index funds. The most notable studies are on selling premium in the index options-- these have netted a 25% annualized return for the past 30 years.
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Oh man here we go again. Then start your own firm and make millions.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Oh man here we go again. Then start your own firm and make millions.
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That negates the benefit that I said the small investor has: extreme mobility. We can get in and out at virtually any price. There have been many successful small investors that have failed to replicate their strategy when they scale it to a hedge fund. Liquidity is a huge concern. We need to stop comparing actively managed funds to individual investors with less than 10 million in their accounts-- it is a totally different ballgame. 10% is not a hard benchmark for an individual investor to hit.
 
MatCauthon said:
That negates the benefit that I said the small investor has: extreme mobility. We can get in and out at virtually any price. There have been many successful small investors that have failed to replicate their strategy when they scale it to a hedge fund. Liquidity is a huge concern. We need to stop comparing actively managed funds to individual investors with less than 10 million in their accounts-- it is a totally different ballgame. 10% is not a hard benchmark for an individual investor to hit.
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No just ask your friends and family for money, then show them how easy it is then get their friends, etc. Make millions on your get rich strategy.
 
Problem with a lot of these ETFs is that they are a
super-highway2.jpg

superhighway going in


but a
600_243452312.jpeg
goat trail going out.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
No just ask your friends and family for money, then show them how easy it is then get their friends, etc. Make millions on your get rich strategy.
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Not get rich quick, get rich quicker than an index fund. Don't need to tell my friends and family about it because they won't listen to me either, but they are missing out. -It has been a very fruitful period the last few years. Just look at the NAK investment post I put up recently-- it has gone way way up. As well as the NVDA post I made when it was still 80. Ride the trend when it is your friend and you can play up markets, down markets, and even sideways markets.
 
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