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The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

Discussion in 'Pharmacy' started by BMBiology, May 2, 2013.

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  1. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    When do you think the stock market bubble will burst?


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  3. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    Eventually. Then it will go back up. And back down.

    I'm giving you expert insight here.
     
  4. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

  5. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    Follow up: approaching the Q3 FDA approval deadline. NEOS is up 22% over the past month. I could sell today and make a 10% profit, but I think I'll set a stop loss and ride the train a little longer.
     
  6. Gombrich12

    Gombrich12 2+ Year Member

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    I think a correction will be started with Facebook, not really expecting a crash though. It would take the market falling another 25% before I would get excited about buying stocks.
     
  7. msweph

    msweph 2+ Year Member

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    I'd sell. I just didn't so that with DRRX ( up 12%) and now I'm down 6% and holding

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  8. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    I've got a stop loss order set about 5% lower than the current price which will still give me decent profit. I'll adjust that as the price goes up so I never lose too many gains, then when I sell it will just go back into my ETFs. I never play with more than a few hundred dollars on these trades.
     
  9. msweph

    msweph 2+ Year Member

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    Yea I need to get better at setting stop losses.... I try not to on bios bc there can be huge drop as overreaction

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  10. Pharmacy Kid

    Pharmacy Kid LCDR 7+ Year Member

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    USPHS
    I'm buying a bunch of TEVA right now.
     
  11. PharmDminus

    PharmDminus

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    World's biggest pension fund wants to stop index trackers eating the economy

    Anyone have any theories on this? As an indexer, I often what will happen as indexing takes up more and more market share. For example, with so many people buying SP500, what does that do the price of the 501st stock?
     
  12. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    Any particular reason?
     
  13. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    People buy other large cap blends and mid cap indices in large volumes, too. Like 20% of my stock allocation is in Vanguard mid cap.
     
  14. Pharmacy Kid

    Pharmacy Kid LCDR 7+ Year Member

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    It's the lowest it has been in over a decade.
     
  15. PolarPop

    PolarPop 2+ Year Member

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    I was thinking of buying as well but I think it will decline even further and will be a long time before it recovers with everything that is going on
     
  16. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Never try to catch a falling knife
     
  17. Pharmacy Kid

    Pharmacy Kid LCDR 7+ Year Member

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    We'll see what happens. So far I have good results with buying depressed stocks.
     
  18. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Look at Gilead go!!
     
  19. Momus

    Momus 7+ Year Member

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    Put These Charts on Your Wall…

    My tiny 9.1% stake on EM and 25% on international did well this year. My small cap value domestic is sh1t tho, I have a lot more of those lol. Diversification at its best.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2017
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  20. confettiflyer

    confettiflyer Did you just say something? 10+ Year Member

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    Yeah but EM was in the sh1tter not too long ago...I kept staring at my EM funds like a disappointed parent


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  21. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    A bet on EM and international is a bet against Trump and his policies.

    30% of my 401 k is in international. All of my ROTH IRA is in EM.


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  22. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    Homeboy can't get any laws passed. He'll probably be impeached before he can negatively affect the economy...lol...
     
  23. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    Does anyone have any interesting ETFs they invest in? Aside from a boring S&P500 of course.

    I gamble a bit with individual stocks, but I like to put my profits into things that don't require me to watch them too closely. I've had some luck with profiting on a few stocks this summer (F, KR, SVU, and NEOS in particular), but that was mostly shear luck.

    I'm strong on battery tech and automation. Basically gambling a lot of my fun money in hopes that electric vehicles, robots, and AI completely take the world by storm in the next decade. The goal is to turn ~$400/mo into a boat + decent chunk of a vacation home in 10 years.

    For anyone keeping score, for the past 3 months I'm up 16% on batteries and 7% on automation. Not bad but I'm not foolish enough to think it'll be consistently like that.
     
  24. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    That's actually a great hedge. If we actually are all replaced by robots...at least you own a little chunk of the robots.

    I've considered getting into HACK cybersecurity ETF. Once the dust settles on this Russia thing, I think business will be a-boomin' in that industry.

    I just don't really do niche things, though. When I start to think about it, I just say eff it and give it to Vanguard Large Cap or Schwabb S&P instead...those basement bottom low expense ratios are too fantastic...
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2017
  25. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    I agree. That's why most of my money is going right there. The two ETFs I'm investing in (LIT and BOTZ) both have high fees. I'm basically gambling that the growth will be so astronomical in those fields that i's worth it. Watch S&P500 outperform it over the decade now.
     
  26. msweph

    msweph 2+ Year Member

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    I sold my lot a bit ago lol

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  27. fxok425

    fxok425 7+ Year Member

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    What do you do if you have 250k cash?
    Just sold our 1st house, now with 250k cash, we don't know what to do with the money. My husband would like to put the money into a saving account, with 1.5% interest, hopefully can keep up with the inflation or lose a little. He said the stock market has about 10-year cycle, it's almost there, just wait for 1 or 2 years, we can buy in to recap the lost. And the local house price has raised so much, about 80-100% up from 2010,2011, so it's not a good time to invest in real estate now, that's also why we sold our old house.
    I would like to split the money at least to several parts, for example, buy 2 or 3 houses in the high rental ratio area (120-150k each with 20,30% down) which get us 10-15% return. and maybe buy some gold??? or bond or fund??? then leave 50k-100k cash.
    any suggestion??? Thanks
     
  28. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    Everyone keeps saying we are in a bubble and it's going to pop any day now, but that still hasn't happened. The truth is you can't really time the market. You may wait to invest and watch the market go on another two year bull run, or you could invest it all and lose half tomorrow. With that much money I would speak to a professional financial adviser.

    That being said, I like your idea of buying rental houses. You've already experienced the benefits of building equity with your first house, why not do it again? There's always the risk of a housing market crash again, but nothing in life is without risk.
     
  29. confettiflyer

    confettiflyer Did you just say something? 10+ Year Member

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    lol @ 10 year cycle... if he knows that, ask him what the lotto numbers are next week.

    Savings account w/ 1.5% interest is a guaranteed loss over time. GUARANTEED. LOSS. ALWAYS.

    Investment is a possible short term loss with a likely long term gain, unless N. Korea nukes everyone, in that case, it won't matter anyway.

    Gold is stupid. Bond fund is also mostly stupid assuming you're under 40.

    Assuming you can't put it in a Roth IRA, drop it into a brokerage fund like so:

    1/3 = cash
    2/3 = short term bond fund

    Buy $2000/week into a total market stock fund over the next 2 years or so.

    Did you seriously sell your house only because you think the market is at a top and a bubble is going to burst? That's a supremely disruptive market bet to me, hope you moved for other reasons. And are you planning to buy a house in the future?
     
  30. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    It is almost impossible for people like us to predict the stock market but as things get more and more expensive, the risk of a bubble also increases.

    There are some troubling early signs such as commercial real estate slowdown. If businesses are not expanding or going online, a lot of jobs are going to be affected.

    Consumers just have too much debt from car loans and student loans to mortgages so they are not to have the same buying power in the future.

    I still invest in my retirement funds (who can say no to the tax saving). Like every bubble, there needs to be a catalyst. I don't know what this catalyst will be but I think being cautious is a smart thing to do right now.






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  31. BenJammin

    BenJammin No Apologies 5+ Year Member

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    Where my ex's live
    50% of my brokerage account is Vanguard total stock market, 25% is ORC, 25% is cash
     
  32. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    My current asset allocation:

    25% retirement funds (all stock)
    30% cash
    45% investment


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  33. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Fully invested, unless it appears a war breaks out, tax reform fails, or some other random black swan occurs, there's no reason to get out. We've been told we're in a bubble for years now and all the risks are still there so why get out now? If we do get tax reform, watch for another spike up. However, no tax reform and this bull market is over. Expect us to be flat or falling.

    Currently not counting emergency fund since that sits in VWAHX as of the beginning of the year. It may get moved soon though.

    Approximately:
    55% us market (this is where most spare money goes)
    15% emerging markets
    15% Walgreens ESPP (love my ten percent discount even with a flat stock), random stocks
    5% gold (Dollar has been tanking and should continue. As much as I find gold pointless, losing money in the bank is even more pointless)
    <1% Bitcoin
    10% cash until I find where to put it.

    Performance compared to the market: crushing it like always.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
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  34. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    If you are retiring in more than like 10 years, just put it in stocks. Unless the 2nd great depression comes along, in the long run you wind up ahead vs a savings account. Even if you invested the day before the great recession started, you're still ahead today vs just putting it into a savings account.
     
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  35. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    The average used car has lost 17% of its value over the last 12 months. And we are going to have record amounts of off-lease cars coming back to market in the next 2 years, too. I might have to upgrade my car in the next few years while the market is nice and depressed. The most depressed categories? Luxury, sub-compact, and full-size cars. I like land yachts, wife likes nimble little city cars. Good news for us, I guess.

    I was thinking about getting a Model 3...but I'm going to cancel my reservation. It just isn't the right time at all. Really, "buy new" is always stupid, but it's even more dumb to buy one now than ever. I hope I might be able to get my mitts on the new Lincoln Continental in 2-3 years for about $20k.
     
    owlegrad likes this.
  36. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    I generally agree with this but the big elephant in the room is do people have 1-2 years of saving/emergency fund ($cash) when and if the economy goes in reverse? I don't think most people do. They are up to their neck in debt.


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  37. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    This is like the subprime mortgage disaster all over again (mini one at least). Investors were chasing yield because they are not getting anything from their saving account, CDs, treasury so they let people with subprime credit buy cars. Well guess what? These people with a poor credit history are abandoning their car. Cars are expensive and they need to be maintained. Can you imagine what would happen if the economy goes south? What is the point of keeping a car when you don't have a job? Car manufacturers also hire a lot of people. What would happen if they start to lay off their employees?

    My tech purchased a used car just 2 years ago. Her car payment is almost half of her take home salary! It is going to take her 7 years to pay off this car. I told her what is the point of working? Just get rid of the car and find a job close to home and work part time. That is the same thing as making payment on the car and working full time.






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  38. gwarm01

    gwarm01 7+ Year Member

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    I've thought about cancelling my reservation after I saw how expensive some of the options are. I like the idea of an electric car, but the real draw for me was autopilot / self-driving. It was fully expected that the self-driving aspect would have produced results by now, and yet Tesla's "enhanced autopilot" is still lacking functionality from their MobileEye days. I don't like the idea of dropping thousands on features that don't exist and may never exist.

    A brand new Chevy Volt or Prius Prime would be far less expensive and still qualify for the $7500 tax incentive. That's something to seriously consider.

    Considering 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (per Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck), I would say you are correct.

    I could last indefinitely if I lost my primary job, but it would require some cutbacks. That's one benefit of living below your means I suppose.
     
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  39. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    It won't be as bad as the mortgage problem for the simple fact that cars are consumable goods (new inventory will be needed much sooner than new hosing inventory), a much lower borrowed sum is needed, and they can be much more easily be resold. Not saying there won't be effects in the greater economy, but I can't see it causing a global cascade of misery like 2007 did.

    But I'm definately going to take advantage of it all just like when I bought a house in 2012.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
  40. fxok425

    fxok425 7+ Year Member

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    Did you seriously sell your house only because you think the market is at a top and a bubble is going to burst? That's a supremely disruptive market bet to me, hope you moved for other reasons. And are you planning to buy a house in the future?[/QUOTE]

    No, not just this reason. We already have another house. This house was our 1st house and I have to sell it for the tax benefit this year. Of course one big reason is it appreciated to the top level. I don't think the bubble is going to burst. It's just it won't increase too much.
     
  41. owlegrad

    owlegrad Uncontrollable Sarcasm Machine Staff Member SDN Administrator 7+ Year Member

    I kinda feel the same way. I haven't cancelled yet but honestly you can get a used S for what, 10k more? Probably a much better car to own from a luxury perspective. For now I just put off deciding by choosing the later build date. I am also super unimpressed with what Tesla considers autopilot.
     
  42. Momus

    Momus 7+ Year Member

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    I'll get a new car once they make one without a steering wheel, once they sell one as entertainment box with wheels. Then, I'll know the autonomous technology is perfected. For now, I'll keep my beat up accord :)
     
  43. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    Yeah, auto loans by themselves would not have the same economic effect as mortgage loans. However, I think auto loans are just one example of irresponsible lending and borrowing. You also have high interest student loans, huge mortgages.

    In the long run, the one thing that matters is productivity. If earning has not gone up much vs inflation, where are people getting their money? Credit...which means they are spending with tomorrow's money. Everything should be OK just as long as there is no big economic downturn. They will keep on paying their monthly debt. But if something happened and they lose their job, they are in a world of hurt. Unlike 2008, the Feds can't just lower interest rate to drive up borrowing and spending.

    I am NOT predicting there will be an economic crisis soon. I still think everyone should max out their 401 k, HSA if they can. That is what I am doing. However, I am also holding a lot of cash. I want to have some flexibility for a rainy day.


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  44. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    The question for those holding cash is at what point do you invest it? Do you have a specific percent drop you are waiting for?

    There have been times where I thought about going cash and setting specific buying points but I've yet to do it, thankfully.
     
  45. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    I don't really have a set percentage. I have been maxing out my 401 k and HSA (stopped maxing out my ROTH IRA a couple of years ago because the tax benefits is not that good). I figure that is more than enough for retirement, in addition to social security.

    Why do I hold on to so much cash? It provides some security and flexibility but more importantly, I don't see anything worth investing in. Everything is expensive.

    It is also my "F.U" money. I know I can pack my things and walk away from my job and I will be alright. You can only have that mentality when you have something as liquid like cash. Even if you have a million dollar in your 401 k, you can't just sell it without paying the penalty and taxes so you are still trapped. You still have to get up and go to work. With a load of cash on hand, I feel more carefree and in a way, I am happier.

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  46. BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~! 10+ Year Member

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    Life is much more than investing and trying to make more and more money. Once your basic needs have been met, anything extra is just extra. It is not going to change your life that much.

    We live in the richest nation in the world but yet, many of us have to work until we are 65...often longer. What is the point of bursting your butt for 40 years so you can retire at 65? When you are 65, your life is on its last leg. Even if you live until you are 95, do you think you will be traveling the world then? Most likely, you will be in a wheelchair waiting to die.

    Learn to live with less and be happy with it. Time is your most precious asset. Don't trade it in for anything.


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  47. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Ok let me ask that differently, for those holding cash but couldn't retire today and need any gains we may still have, what is your reentry point?

    We're up like 20% since Jan 2015, a range where it seemed we weren't going anywhere and the same bubble talks were occurring.

    I'm only at 17 years working so while I could retire and live a normal life, I want to live an even better life which may mean 10 more years of working. (Hopefully not).
     
  48. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Double post
     
  49. Whereismynorco

    Whereismynorco 2+ Year Member

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    anyone is bitcoin miner or other miner like ETH? worth it?
     
  50. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 "Bubs Depot!" 10+ Year Member

    It's 100% speculative. There is no intrinsic reason for the value of bitcoin/ether to increase. There is no correlation between its value and its utility as a banking tool. As long as people keep buying it, the value will increase. The problem is that over the history of mankind, these types of bubbles pop more frequently than they sustain themselves. Tread lightly.
     
  51. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 2+ Year Member

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    Someone caught a falling knife. You staying in?
     
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