The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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gwarm01 said:
SCHB. It's a very low fee ETF.

Spoiler alert: it's my best perfoming stock.
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I was answering your question in jeopardy style, saying the broad market fund is your best performing stock.
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PharmDBro2017 said:
I was answering your question in jeopardy style, saying the broad market fund is your best performing stock.
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Ahhh...You even said Jeopardy. I've just completed a cross country move, so my brain is a little fried.
 
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quickpic007 said:
Tell us about the West Coast!! Is it like all the movies?
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Pacific time means you have to remember to call businesses back home by 3 PM or they will be closed. Other than that, it's bad traffic and decent weather. What more could you ever ask for?
 
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gwarm01 said:
Pacific time means you have to remember to call businesses back home by 3 PM or they will be closed. Other than that, it's bad traffic and decent weather. What more could you ever ask for?
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You moved to Cali?


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Recession talk:

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BMBiology said:
China strategy: fighting without fighting

Instead of matching Trump’s $60B tariff, China is making indirect threats like stop buying US treasuries, soybeans, airplanes, Apple products, etc.

Why? By directly going at Trump, it would give him more reason to keep on fighting and give him the political advantage to fight back. He is not only fighting China but he is also defending the US from China. China doesn’t want that.

By just making indirect threats, corporations, their employees, and their representatives would fight the fight for China. They will lobby Trump to end it. As the stock market keeps on going down, more and more people would want Trump to find a solution to this mess. But Trump can’t just leave...he needs something. That is when China will throw him a bone (always give your opponent a way out).
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Called it...getting corporations to fight trump:

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Can anyone give a brief overview of what factors cause the housing market to rise or fall? Bottom line, how would you know when is a good time to buy low?
 
Amicable Angora said:
Can anyone give a brief overview of what factors cause the housing market to rise or fall? Bottom line, how would you know when is a good time to buy low?
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What causes it to rise? low interest rates, low unemployment, inflation. Right now is a strong sellers market due to these factors along with a shortage of homes. More than 50% of buyers today are under age 36, the millenials do not want to rent.
 
PharmDminus said:
What causes it to rise? low interest rates, low unemployment, inflation. Right now is a strong sellers market due to these factors along with a shortage of homes. More than 50% of buyers today are under age 36, the millenials do not want to rent.
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Is it generally true then that houses sell for a lot during bull markets and sell for little during bear markets?
 
Amicable Angora said:
Is it generally true then that houses sell for a lot during bull markets and sell for little during bear markets?
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i am sure there is a correlation but i dont think that is always true. we have been in a bull market since 2009, housing didnt get hot until a year or two ago. I think employment rate and interest rates are bigger factors than stock market, although stock market is tied to employment and interest rates to an extent as well so they are all tied together in ways
 
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gwarm01 said:
Washington.
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Good luck in the new area. Thought you had just gotten a new job in AR recently? (correct me if I'm wrong, or PM if you don't want to discuss publicly).

What kinda gig? I always am curious about salary and stuff... must've been offering you something good?
 
PharmDBro2017 said:
Good luck in the new area. Thought you had just gotten a new job in AR recently? (correct me if I'm wrong, or PM if you don't want to discuss publicly).

What kinda gig? I always am curious about salary and stuff... must've been offering you something good?
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It's been a few years since I started that last job. I'll PM some details.
 
So how did you guys do in the first half of the year?

401k 2% (all of these not annualized). Just index funds in there.
Roth IRA 29%. Trading account with individual stocks.
Taxable account 12%. Mixed index funds, stocks held long-term, ESPP, cash.
Overall 10%.
 
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CVS 401k: 4.9881% -- (That Large Cap Growth fund they have is my jawn.)
Vanguard Roth IRA: 2.33%
HSA Investments: 1.67% (It's all just in a simple Schwab S&P 500 index)

I'm not about to do the math to figure out the overall, but the majority of the funds are in the top two, obviously. Probably like 4% or so. It's all indexes, I don't stock pick. But, hey, beating the market, I guess. Pez up there killing it.
 
Trading account is up 21.3k mainly due to FAANMG not bad for a 200k account.

Index and bonds were like 2.6%.

Haven't looked at retirement accounts in years. Just set it and forget it.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Trading account is up 21.3k mainly due to FAANMG not bad for a 200k account.

Index and bonds were like 2.6%.

Haven't looked at retirement accounts in years. Just set it and forget it.
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All of this big talk and you just have $200 k in your trading account?

I guess “selling” bitcoin at its peak wasn’t that much after all.


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BMBiology said:
All of this big talk and you just have $200 k in your trading account?

I guess “selling” bitcoin at its peak wasn’t that much after all.


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Huh? What are you talking about? I've always stated I start out with $200k and any gains from the previous year goes towards vacations and index funds. I've stated this multiple times.

I've made over $100k before from my trading account. I'm not a full time trader, I do this because I enjoy it and it's better then just letting it sit there.

The bulk of my savings are in indexes and my retirement accounts.

The market is up what 1%? I don't take huge risks, I invest in what I know.

wagrxm2000 said:
My stock buying has nothing to do with beating the market (even though I always seem to). Its something I enjoy doing and like I said before I set 200k at the beginning of each year. Whatever I make is just extra money for me to spend because again I MAX MY IRA 401 K AND CONTRIBUTE TO MY INDEX FUNDS.
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This was from March 2016, sorry that you misinterpreted my trading account.
 
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wagrxm2000 said:
Trading account is up 21.3k mainly due to FAANMG not bad for a 200k account.

Index and bonds were like 2.6%.

Haven't looked at retirement accounts in years. Just set it and forget it.
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Do you purchase those FAANMG stocks on a scheduled basis or do you try to buy them during dips? I've been sticking with index funds but always have an itch to dabble in individual stocks. I usually end up losing though.
 
mentos said:
Do you purchase those FAANMG stocks on a scheduled basis or do you try to buy them during dips? I've been sticking with index funds but always have an itch to dabble in individual stocks. I usually end up losing though.
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I haven't bought in awhile. I actually don't want them to be too concentrated in my trading portfolio. As great as they have been for me, I'm still like a lot of other people. I keep saying they can't keep this up. I try I keep them no higher then 40% of my portfolio.

My overall feelings on the market are pretty negative to neutral all year. We simply aren't going anywhere with all this political stuff going on. It's actually a good thing though, we've needed a break in the bull market. It would be hard for me to say jump into a Netflix right now. If you are going to buy, you will have to refrain from wanting to sell on dips and actually buy more.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Brace for a lost decade for U.S. stocks, warn Morningstar strategists

Watch out indexers. Get ready to only generate increased net worth though contributions.
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Ok...so if you think that only fang and other similar types of stocks will be big, then switch to growth indexes. Done. Or, if you look at what this claims..then look at global indexes. Europe looks ripe for growth.

There is an index for everything. Just because you index doesn't mean it's only S&P 500 and that's it.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
Ok...so if you think that only fang and other similar types of stocks will be big, then switch to growth indexes. Done. Or, if you look at what this claims..then look at global indexes. Europe looks ripe for growth.

There is an index for everything. Just because you index doesn't mean it's only S&P 500 and that's it.
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I don't agree with Europe, if anything a US recession will hurt them even more.
 
Been heavily invested in FANG since the beginning of the year and have done well. Since they have little exposure to China I'm adding to my positions.
 
Do we really need to have a trade war with China?


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Can't find anything on how I should distribute between my 401k and Roth IRA? Should I use similar % allocations or be more aggressive with one than the other?
 
aqb said:
Can't find anything on how I should distribute between my 401k and Roth IRA? Should I use similar % allocations or be more aggressive with one than the other?
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Do the 401k first up to $18,500 then do the Roth IRA if you still want to invest more.

Use the backdoor Roth IRA method if over the income limits of 120k single/189k married and make sure you do not have any traditional or rollover IRAs when you do this. If you do have some, roll them into a 401k if they let you. Otherwise you will be taxed in proportion to the pre-tax amount you have in IRAs when you do a backdoor Roth.
 
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pezdispenser said:
Do the 401k first up to $18,500 then do the Roth IRA if you still want to invest more.

Use the backdoor Roth IRA method if over the income limits of 120k single/189k married and make sure you do not have any traditional or rollover IRAs when you do this. If you do have some, roll them into a 401k if they let you. Otherwise you will be taxed in proportion to the pre-tax amount you have in IRAs when you do a backdoor Roth.
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I think he was asking more about what particular stock/bond/index fund he should invest in.
 
wucool33 said:
I think he was asking more about what particular stock/bond/index fund he should invest in.
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Oh I see. Yeah be more aggressive in the Roth. I go all individual stocks in my Roth. 30+% returns, tax free.
 
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pezdispenser said:
Oh I see. Yeah be more aggressive in the Roth. I go all individual stocks in my Roth. 30+% returns, tax free.
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Why is Roth better for more aggressive allocation? More options to choose from? In theory we won't be touching these until retirement right?

I always thought allocation between accounts didn't matter as long as your overall allocation was where you wanted it to be.
 
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mentos said:
Why is Roth better for more aggressive allocation? More options to choose from? In theory we won't be touching these until retirement right?

I always thought allocation between accounts didn't matter as long as your overall allocation was where you wanted it to be.
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It's about the taxes, but it's complicated and partly psychological. For a 401k you still have to pay taxes on the whole amount when you make withdrawals. So you would think the more it grows, the more taxes you will pay. For a Roth you only pay taxes on the contribution (it's an after tax contribution) and withdrawals are completely tax free. So you think the more it grows, the more tax benefit you get.

However, to calculate an exact asset allocation between a 401k and Roth you would have to compare pre-tax amounts in the 401k e.g. $7,237 to the equivalent after-tax amounts in the Roth of $5,500, and then mathematically they will come out the same. The thing is, most people don't do this to account for the taxes you still have to pay on the 401k. So you end up inadvertently weighting the allocation in the Roth more.

But I think that's a good thing if it causes you to allocate more to aggressive investments with a higher expected return in a Roth. Particularly if you make a killing in individual stocks since you can have a brokerage account in a Roth, and not have to pay a single penny in taxes on your gains.
 
I max everything tax advantaged (401k,Roth, HSA) and invest in diversified indexes. Very lazy and, statistically, very likely to allow me to reach my financial goals.
 
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So finally took a plunge and bought VTSAX. Not that happy personally as I am buying it at its almost all-time high.. Oh well some things can't be delayed forever.

Question: what do guys think of VTIAX? I understand the principal of diversification but I personally have more confidence in US market compared to international. I am currently not interested in bonds at all so my focus will be 100% stocks on taxable investment accounts. Should I just keep funding VTSAX or VTIAX has to be strongly considered?
 
Diversification is usually a good thing. VTSAX is pretty much the same as the S&P 500 because its weighted...and the international fund is similar. So you're going to have a lot of stake in stuff like Samsung, Nestle, Alibaba, Big Pharma (Roche, Novartis, Bayer, etc), Toyota, Honda, etc...some pretty good large cap growth stocks. The one good thing about the US being a plutocracy is that your 401k gets fantastic returns compared to international markets that have to support pesky things like funding a more egalitarian society...so I keep like 70% of my portfolio in the US stock market.
 
Chrish said:
So finally took a plunge and bought VTSAX. Not that happy personally as I am buying it at its almost all-time high.. Oh well some things can't be delayed forever.

Question: what do guys think of VTIAX? I understand the principal of diversification but I personally have more confidence in US market compared to international. I am currently not interested in bonds at all so my focus will be 100% stocks on taxable investment accounts. Should I just keep funding VTSAX or VTIAX has to be strongly considered?
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I only have 5% in internationals to cover the big names mentioned above, but the historical performance has been way behind Total Stock Market Index or the S&P 500. Vanguard and other target date funds use 60% US, 40% international so their returns have been dragged down as a result. So I'm going to stay underweight in internationals.
 
Thanks! I have been reading a lot on international allocation whole day and general sentiment on bogelheads forum seem like 20%-30% intl portfolio seems appropriate. However, several investors including Jack Bogle himself think it's not really necessary. I haven't really made up my mind on what % would work for me though I will definitely buy some.

Another question, do you guys further diversify your American portfolio or you just keep it to VTSAX? Moreover, I would assume folks here use DCA strategy. So, if you have let's say $100k cold cash to invest, how often and how much would you contribute? I need help forming a pattern. Thanks.
 
Chrish said:
Thanks! I have been reading a lot on international allocation whole day and general sentiment on bogelheads forum seem like 20%-30% intl portfolio seems appropriate. However, several investors including Jack Bogle himself think it's not really necessary. I haven't really made up my mind on what % would work for me though I will definitely buy some.

Another question, do you guys further diversify your American portfolio or you just keep it to VTSAX? Moreover, I would assume folks here use DCA strategy. So, if you have let's say $100k cold cash to invest, how often and how much would you contribute? I need help forming a pattern. Thanks.
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DCA is to ease the pain if the market drops suddenly. We know 60% of the time in any given year, market tends to be positive. So, DCA is a losing strategy 60% of the time.

If you want to DCA, you can do:
1. 50% now, 10% every month until it's all gone. If it goes up, you capture it with 50% of your money. If it drops, you buy more on discount.
2. 20% every other month. You buy more as it drops or you buy a more expensive stock as it keeps going up. Up to you.

If you think about it, international has been beaten down so much relative to U.S markets. It has been close to 10 years that international hasn't been going anywhere, it's actually very likely it will bounce in the coming years. US might lag behind in the coming years, valuation seems frothy. Reducing your % of international is probably a mistake, it's probably a great time (bargain) to buy international now but I don't market time.
 
Momus said:
DCA is to ease the pain if the market drops suddenly. We know 60% of the time in any given year, market tends to be positive. So, DCA is a losing strategy 60% of the time.

If you want to DCA, you can do:
1. 50% now, 10% every month until it's all gone. If it goes up, you capture it with 50% of your money. If it drops, you buy more on discount.
2. 20% every other month. You buy more as it drops or you buy a more expensive stock as it keeps going up. Up to you.

If you think about it, international has been beaten down so much relative to U.S markets. It has been close to 10 years that international hasn't been going anywhere, it's actually very likely it will bounce in the coming years. US might lag behind in the coming years, valuation seems frothy. Reducing your % of international is probably a mistake, it's probably a great time (bargain) to buy international now but I don't market time.
Click to expand...

So, are you in favor of lump sum buying in comparison to DCA despite the stock you are interested in is at all-time high?

Thought of International market doing well in coming decade is very tempting as it feels like US market might have run its course for now. I am gonna dump necessary 10K for Admiral purchase and decide what % to contribute afterwards.
 
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