The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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Chrish said:
So, are you in favor of lump sum buying in comparison to DCA despite the stock you are interested in is at all-time high?

Thought of International market doing well in coming decade is very tempting as it feels like US market might have run its course for now. I am gonna dump necessary 10K for Admiral purchase and decide what % to contribute afterwards.
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I understand where you are coming from, but plenty of stocks have spent the past several years at all time highs.. and continued to grow. You may be missing out on additional growth by waiting, or you might buy one day before the next great recession.

I'm a fan of DCA because I like to mitigate risk. I believe the next recession is around the corner, but I'm not going to pretend to know exactly when. I'm just going to put the same amount into the same funds month after month and hopefully end up ahead.
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playing IQ very heavily right now, had almost 80% of my account in the stock this week and also some call options. bought most of it around 30 and 31, took some profits at 36.50 and will take more at 38. if it breaks 38 will watch even more. I trail my stop up so I still keep most of my gains. streaming media plays are extremely strong right now. I closed out NFLX before earnings, but roku, huya, and iq have been my go-to stocks for this month.
 
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Chrish said:
Thanks! I have been reading a lot on international allocation whole day and general sentiment on bogelheads forum seem like 20%-30% intl portfolio seems appropriate. However, several investors including Jack Bogle himself think it's not really necessary. I haven't really made up my mind on what % would work for me though I will definitely buy some.

Another question, do you guys further diversify your American portfolio or you just keep it to VTSAX? Moreover, I would assume folks here use DCA strategy. So, if you have let's say $100k cold cash to invest, how often and how much would you contribute? I need help forming a pattern. Thanks.
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About 25% is in a large cap growth index for me. I simply think the rich will get richer..
 
FB just gave everyone a chance to get in. Buy if it stays here.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
FB just gave everyone a chance to get in. Buy if it stays here.
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facebook is dead tech. No of the kids are using it. Everyone is on instagram/snapchat/twitter. If you buy FB are u also buying instagram?
 
Modest_anteater said:
facebook is dead tech. No of the kids are using it. Everyone is on instagram/snapchat/twitter. If you buy FB are u also buying instagram?
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Actually, snap and twitter can't compete with FB/instagram. Year over year, revenue is still up, growth is slowing down a bit but who the hell cares? They just missed expectation and give a worse guidance to lower expectation a bit. Next report, they will bounce back as usual.

I am covered either way with VTSAX, its top 10 holdings is 18.3% of largest companies by market cap. Sleep well if they drop 50% or up 50%.
 
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I bought 2 shares of AMZN earlier this week, hope it jumps up after earnings report today.

Maybe will buy some FB if it's still low.

Just using play money, too scared to day trade like you guys. But that's why you guys are richer.
 
mentos said:
I bought 2 shares of AMZN earlier this week, hope it jumps up after earnings report today.

Maybe will buy some FB if it's still low.

Just using play money, too scared to day trade like you guys. But that's why you guys are richer.
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Not saying it won't go lower but there's no reason why fb won't be back to 190 if it opens at 173.

Half now half later if it drops if you are a little concerned.
 
Thinking about NFLX now too. Good buy?
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
The Zillow estimated value on my house has skyrocketed over the last year. It was $253k when I bought it in 2012...now its $320k.
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That is only 5% per year. If you take inflation, mortgage interest and property tax into consideration, it is not as much as you think.


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I don't see FB going anywhere (south I mean). Number of users did not even budge (last time I heard) when all the reports of privacy breach arose.... everyone in the world connects with it. And since IG is owned by FB... they both ain't goin nowhere fast. If I had a lot of liquid $ I'd probably have bought some FB today.
 
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Bought FB 6 shares at $175. My only individual stock in taxable account lol. The rest in index funds.

Did anyone load up on GOOGL before earnings report? Wish I had.
 
From @pezdispenser post a few weeks ago asking how midyear gains had been... mine have almost tripled since. I assume everyone else has had similar gains since most of the North Korea media hype is gone?
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
Fair enough, bit it was like $280k a year ago.
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Those zestimates are notoriously inaccurate. Homes in desired areas get into bidding wars and are sold way above them all the time.
 
mentos said:
Bought FB 6 shares at $175. My only individual stock in taxable account lol. The rest in index funds.

Did anyone load up on GOOGL before earnings report? Wish I had.
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I don't play that game of trying to pick winners right before earnings. Sometimes you may win but probably just as many times you could get hosed like FB and NFLX. Too much of a gamble because you don't know if results have already been priced in, or if they announce something unexpected. But I do still buy these companies any time AFTER they have some bad news that trashes the stock because they are strong companies that will always find a way to overcome challenges and bounce back.
 
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I will never buy FB no matter how low it goes. I don't trust Zuckerberg or Sandberg. He needs to hand the company off to the adults to let them operate it.
 
Facebook and Twitter both down 20%. I'm not looking to catch a falling knife here, but it's a tempting buy.

Too many of these tech stocks went up 50% in a year for no real reason. I wouldn't be surprised if more start to tank.
 
Not sure how much lower I can let FB drop before buying.
 
Modest_anteater said:
don't buy. It's a dead company. IG is keeping it on life support
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You clearly don't know stocks. Facebook made 5 billion in profit this last quarter. There's probably only a few thousand companies that make that in revenue.

This isn't Myspace, this company will continue to innovate and stay relevant.
 
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wagrxm2000 said:
You clearly don't know stocks. Facebook made 5 billion in profit this last quarter. There's probably only a few thousand companies that make that in revenue.

This isn't Myspace, this company will continue to innovate and stay relevant.
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Yeah but it is value @ $500B. Its profit does not justify its high valuation unless it keeps on growing at a fast pace.


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wagrxm2000 said:
Not sure how much lower I can let FB drop before buying.
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I'm just a boring DCA into index funds each month kind of guy, but I'm tempted with FB. I make my purchases on the first so at least I have a couple more days to observe and decide.
 
BMBiology said:
Yeah but it is value @ $500B. Its profit does not justify its high valuation unless it keeps on growing at a fast pace.


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Current s&p500 p/e ratio is about 24, FB is about 26, tech sector is at around 34. If anything Facebook should be much higher at the rate it is still growing at.

Facebook revenue grew quarter over quarter of 42% with income at 31%. Did it slow down? Yes first quarter was like 50% and 60%. There was more spending though this quarter so income could have been much higher. I believe they brought in about a billion more in revenue this quarter compared to the first.

I think Facebook is doing fine.
 
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wagrxm2000 said:
Current s&p500 p/e ratio is about 24, FB is about 26, tech sector is at around 34. If anything Facebook should be much higher at the rate it is still growing at.

Facebook revenue grew quarter over quarter of 42% with income at 31%. Did it slow down? Yes first quarter was like 50% and 60%. There was more spending though this quarter so income could have been much higher. I believe they brought in about a billion more in revenue this quarter compared to the first.

I think Facebook is doing fine.
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So are you buying?
 
BMBiology said:
Yeah but it is value @ $500B. Its profit does not justify its high valuation unless it keeps on growing at a fast pace.


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This. It is overvalued by at least 10x. Just look at companies like Uber that are so overvalued they are having downrounds and all the private money is trying to get Uber to do a IPO so they can dumb their worthless shares on the public.

Giant tech bubble in SF right now. Theranos was the first to fold, then uber then all the valuations will pop. They are too overhyped.
 
Modest_anteater said:
This. It is overvalued by at least 10x. Just look at companies like Uber that are so overvalued they are having downrounds and all the private money is trying to get Uber to do a IPO so they can dumb their worthless shares on the public.

Giant tech bubble in SF right now. Theranos was the first to fold, then uber then all the valuations will pop. They are too overhyped.
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You think Facebook is worth 50 billion? You think they should have a p/e ratio way under 10? Ford is a mature high dividend value company and still is near 10.

Do you understand how companies are evaluated?

You don't evaluate a company based on if you like it or not.
 
This tariff war against China is just stupid. Who is going to be able to take more pain? The spender (us) or the saver (the Chinese)? They have enough saving to last for 10 years!


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BMBiology said:
This tariff war against China is just stupid. Who is going to be able to take more pain? The spender (us) or the saver (the Chinese)? They have enough saving to last for 10 years!


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It's more like who can take more pain...the party in the country that has elections...Or the country with the president for life?

Xi can just lay in the cut until it blows over and America eventually capitulates.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
It's more like who can take more pain...the party in the country that has elections...Or the country with the president for life?

Xi can just lay in the cut until it blows over and America eventually capitulates.
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They said the same things about Reagan when he bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 80's.
 
Have you guys seen the Chinese stock market? There's only so much it can take. I expect China to give in first.

While trade war is harming our market, we're still up. If this blows over this year, I could easily see us up 10%.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Have you guys seen the Chinese stock market? There's only so much it can take. I expect China to give in first.

While trade war is harming our market, we're still up. If this blows over this year, I could easily see us up 10%.
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The Chinese economy is not tied to its stock market. Trump will learn it is not always about making money.


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