The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

Discussion in 'Pharmacy' started by BMBiology, May 2, 2013.

  1. Momus

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    I said later as if in the future. I wish I had 8 figs now... :-/
     
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  2. Charcoales

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    Just retire at high 7 figs and get a 20-30k dream partime "job" for a baseline?
     
  3. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Yes, I live in California which is a high SALT state. There is really no tax incentive to owning a primary residence in California because now you can only write $10 k in state income tax and property tax combined (for singles and couples).

    In California, property tax can only increase by no more than 2% per year so there is a lot of incentive to hold on to the property forever.

    One of the best things about being a landlord is the tax benefits. Everything is a tax write off. People are always looking for a place to live so the government has to make sure there is a supply of properties on the market. Of course there is a lot of lobbying from real estate, construction industry, etc. If you do it right, you can protect your rental properties from a bad divorce even without a prenup.

    The trend in California now is families living together which makes sense because it is expensive here. So I like big properties with 4 or 5 rooms and 3 bathrooms in a decent/good neighborhood. If a neighborhood is clean then that is a good sign. If they don’t take care of the neighborhood then most likely they won’t take care of your house!
     
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  4. OP
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    BMBiology

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    I make most of my money from the appreciation, not so much from rents. I am putting down 25%. I get to leverage the other 75% so even if the house only increases 3.5% per year, I still make a lot of money.

    The hard part is not the 25% down payment. The hard part is finding that right property. It is like finding in a needle in a haystack sometimes. I am constantly looking at properties on my phone and since I have a lot of experience now, I don’t go see a property unless I know it will cash flow.

    I didn’t think I would like the real estate business because there are some shady people here. But it is kinda fun and I am in full control. I can’t call the Chief Executive Officer of a company that I own shares in and tell him what to do but I can tell my property manager to not increase rent on my good tenants if I choose to. If there is a lot of money to be made, there will always be shady people. But I am the one who is writing the check, so if they are not on board with my plans then off they go. I don’t give second chance from the contractor fixing my floor to the real estate agent writing my offer. Since they know I am buying multi properties, they are extra nice and careful with me. I am not a one time client and I make sure they know that.

    Only if you care....people are impress with you when they know you own multi rental properties because anyone can buy stocks but not everyone can buy a rental property. You are suddenly a more interesting person.
     
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  5. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    Y'all are complicated. I'm just going until I get about $2.5 million, then I'm moving to either Central America or Eastern Europe where I can live like a king off of that in perpetuity and you'll never see or hear from me again.
     
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  6. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Jealous much?

    Why do I care what people on this forum think about me? I have been going against the grain since Day 1 and I have been right a lot more than I have been wrong. That is how I approach life and that is how I make my bags of money.
     
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  7. OP
    OP
    BMBiology

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    I was on the same boat not too long ago. I could have “retire” this year but I am having a change of heart.

    Why stop now? It doesn’t take much for me to be happy so why not go in big? I don’t know much about sports except MMA but I have a lot of experience with money so why call it quit while I am still young and keep that knowledge to myself?

    That is just me. We all need a purpose in life and lying on a beach at 10 am is not my purpose.
     
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  8. Actinomycin

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    "I make most of my money from the appreciation, not so much from rents. I am putting down 25%. I get to leverage the other 75% so even if the house only increases 3.5% per year, I still make a lot of money."

    Are you suggesting your house increases 3.5+rate of interest =7.5%. You need to account for the interest you are paying on the 75 percent you have leveraged. Historically house rates have not increased at that high a rate.
     
  9. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Some people have asked me how do I find the time?

    It is not hard. I stopped doing things that don’t bring much value to my life. I don’t follow sports. I don’t care about what celebrity is fighting with what celebrity or who won the Oscar. I don’t waste my time and money on cars.

    I do follow business news. I certainly do not live a frugal lifestyle. I believe the brain needs stimulation for it not to become dull and boring. I spent $300 on a steak dinner at a nice restaurant the other night. I am not saying that because I want to impress you but I believe new experiences are good for you and they will help you make more money.

    At the end of the day...it is about spending quality time with my family and close friends and having a peace of mind. Taking good care of my family is also important and that often requires a lot of money.
     
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  10. PharmDBro2017

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    I appreciate you sharing some wisdom/tips and educating us on rental properties. That's a refreshing change from some of your other posting styles.

    If you had the time, I think it would be cool to have you do a thorough post on rentals, how you got started, tips on finding and maintaining a good rental property, etc. and expand on it from there. Seems like a popular topic, and you have good experience with it. I've got one rental at the moment and definitely wanting to get more in the future, I still a LOT to learn in that area.
     
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  11. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 Do not respond to this
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    I would much rather do real estate crowdfunding then owning but that's just my personal opinion. Average returns have been around 10% last five years.
     
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  12. Momus

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    0 sh1t given about you talking hot air in internet forum.

    Read your own post history how you crap on others who are doing just fine. LOL
     
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  13. Momus

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    Roofstock gains quite a traction to own higher cap properties with low DP. I know a lot of techies using that to build a portfolio.
     
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  14. OP
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    BMBiology

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    You have to realize what I am saying only applies to my neighborhood. It might not apply to your neighborhood. It does not replace experience. That is why it is essential for you to go out and look at > 100 houses before buying your first property. Talk to the listing agent. Ask him/her what she likes about the house, the neighborhood. You need to have a good sense of what property is under value and you need to identify where is the next upcoming neighborhood. Remember, you make money when you buy a property, not when you sell it.

    I look for these things: (1) single family homes, not apartments. A family with 2 kids and a grandmother is less likely to move vs. a college student living in an apartment. (2) clean neighborhood. If the neighborhood is trash then they will also trash your place! I like to walk around and get a general feel of the area....it is always a good sign when see neighbors saying hello to each other. (3) follow the big boys. If a big developer like Lennar or Trader Joe move into a neighborhood then that is a very good sign. They spend millions in research and they will pay millions in taxes to the city which in turn will make the neighborhood nicer.

    Most importantly, you are not buying the property for yourself. You are buying it to rent it out so you must have a renter mindset and you must know what they look for in a renter.
     
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  15. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Crowdfunding and REIT are fine if you want others to do it. Since they are doing it, they are going to charge you a lot of money.

    10% return for the last 5 years is not impressive in RE investing. You would have made a lot more money if you had gone out there and buy rental properties yourself but hey, that requires work and money!
     
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  16. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 Do not respond to this
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    Well that's what I mean, I'd rather use my time with my family then going out and looking for houses. 10% annual return isn't bad when you're looking just to diversify.

    Financial samuari puts it best

    "Completely Passive Investing

    One of the main reasons why I sold my San Francisco rental house in 2017 is because I didn’t want to fix the leaks, fix the pipes, and deal with painful tenants who didn’t pay their rent on time. With a new baby, time was too precious for me to deal with all this hassle.

    When you invest in crowdfunding real estate, you do no work after the investment closes. You still have all the up front work of analyzing the investment and seeing whether it’s a good fit for your overall plan. After the funds are transferred, it’s managed just like a REIT.

    As a real estate crowdfunding investor, you simply log onto your dashboard and collect your payouts electronically."
     
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    #4666 wagrxm2000, Feb 9, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
  17. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Financial Samurai is a businessman. He made his money from buying rental properties, not from crowdfunding. I am sure he got a special deal when he promotes a product and he gets a commission when you click and buy. I am not saying that is wrong. What I am saying is you are not going to get the same generous offer as he did.

    I get the time issue. Not everyone wants to look at properties. Not everyone is willing to pull the trigger. But often the same people who complain about time are the same people who are bursting their butt at work so they can earn a few dollars in bonus.

    The only reason why RE investing is so profitable is because most people don’t want to do it or they can’t do it. That is actually a good thing. Less competition is a good thing.
     
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  18. OP
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    BMBiology

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    That is why you have to make sure your tenant rent will pay for all expenses from mortgage, property tax to fixes, even vacancy. You have to make sure the property would “cash flow”. Even with a modest increase of 3.5% appreciation per year (not inflation adjusted), it is still a lot of money in the long term because you are leveraging the other 75% and your property tax (in CA) goes down every year when adjusted for inflation while your rent goes up every year.

    You don’t even have to pay taxes on the profit if you do it right.

    One thing people don’t talk about is...your rental property is a great hedge against inflation. It is an awesome way to protect your asset and pass on your asset from one generation to the next.
     
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  19. Pharmacy Kid

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    I think we can all agree on that. {thumbs up emoticon/}
     
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  20. Pharm.C.

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    I rewatched a documentary I saw a few years ago. I'm sure many of you saw it on Netflix and the financial literacy of the average person on this forum is likely above average anyway, but here ya go--pirated on YouTube and everything. Asset/debt bubble #3 of the second millennium a la the federal reserve.

    "Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve"


    And if that link doesn't work use this one.
     
    #4670 Pharm.C., Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  21. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 Do not respond to this
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    There's the Carol we all know
     
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  22. owlegrad

    owlegrad Uncontrollable Sarcasm Machine
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    I am still not convinced. Where’s the wall of text that is impossible to follow? Where’s the tin foil hat conspiracies? Although now that the links have started to appear perhaps the rest can follow.
     
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  23. OP
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    BMBiology

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    I don’t think Pharm C is Carol.
     
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  24. wagrxm2000

    wagrxm2000 Do not respond to this
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    It's not quite the same but give it time.
     
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  25. OP
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    BMBiology

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    It is not like what he is posting is wrong. Those are valid concerns.
     
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  26. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    Bernanke literally saves the world from a crippling depression and people are still peddling idiotic Federal Reserve conspiracy theories. lol.
     
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  27. Pharm.C.

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    Not sure who Carol is. Link?

    Not sure why I like to write long posts. This forum gives me a place to organize and share ideas I guess. Feel free to read it or not.

    It's not a conspiracy. Just a documentary about the history of the federal reserve and how their policies have created bubbles. QE and raising interest rates artificially inflate asset prices and increase debt above what it should be. Yeah Bernanke should have stepped in because we were on the edge of a cliff, but that doesn't mean leaving rates at 0% with a massive balance sheet for longer than an entire average bull market was a good idea. It's easy to lower interest rates. It's harder to be the bad guy that raises them (notice Janet Yellen left as soon as policy started to get tight). The bubble always forms where people think it can't precisely because an efficient market only allows bubbles where people think rampant speculation is safe. In 2000, everyone thought there was a new paradigm and that tech stocks deserved ridiculous valuations. Turns out they didn't. In 2006, everyone thought housing bubbles couldn't form because it was an illiquid asset, not an investment. Turns out they were wrong. Now everyone is saying there can't be a bubble in government/corporate debt because the fed can always "print money" to save corporations and the government from bankruptcy. "Huge upside with little to no risk." "New paradigm." Deutsche Bank 20xx = Lehman Brothers 2008. What's going to be the first to pop like the housing market of 2006? China? Germany? US corporations? A certain asset like Canadian/Australian real estate?

    Inflation comes in many forms be it CPI, asset inflation (increasing asset prices) or printing money. The Germans learned this the hard way in the 1920s. Printing money doesn't do anything other than trick people into pushing the economy out of balance. Just because CPI has been ok doesn't mean printing money hasn't lead to asset inflation. Not saying we're heading towards a US default, but we're at least trending towards another Great Depression. What's the fed to do when the bubble pops and there's no room to move on interest rates and QE anymore? In the short term, we have many bubbles around the world: real estate in many countries, US/Chinese government/corporate debt, student debt, stock prices, FANGs, etc. People theoretically adapt after each bubble. We learned not to create a bubble in one asset and so we're spreading the bubble over many different facets of the economy. Who knows when it will pop, but pop it will.

    There are recession/financial distress alarms ringing around the world, monetary policy is tightening (we were still at 0% with a full balance sheet in 2015), and valuations are sky high and so I'm not too excited about risk on sentiment at the moment. The economy is like a rubber band. You can stretch it exponentially more or keep it stetched over long periods of time, but one day the rubber band is either going to break under the stress or the tension will pull us back to neutral only if we rightly allow it. Who knows though. This could go on for another 10 years which would just make the inevitable fall that much worse.

    If you want to know my "put it all on red" guess, I'd say last October was the top. We may continue to trickle higher until everyone is convinced this "sell off" was temporary yet again. Once everyone is back in there will be a sudden and inexplicable run for the exits like we saw in December. Then the weak economic data would come out and in that case we would see a crash. I'm watching unemployment. We're at capacity and if we trickle up higher from here it may mean we've exhausted the upside. I could be wrong. In fact, even if the premise is right getting the timing right is next to impossible.
     
    #4677 Pharm.C., Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  28. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Criticizing the Fed doesn’t mean you believe in conspiracy theories.

    I think Bernanke did a remarkable job of containing the housing and banking collapse but that doesn’t mean we should have kept interest rate abnormally low for the last 10 years.

    Our Fed is not proactive and our politicians just care about the next election. If there is no consequence to low interest rate then why not keep it low forever?

    Because there are consequences. You already see it in federal government debt, corporate debt, student loan debt and auto debt. Pension obligation is also worrisome and it will become a state and city debt.

    There is going to be a point when investors are going to refuse to buy all of this debt with a low yield. What if they want 5% yield for 10 year treasuries? When this happens, other forms of debt would also need to increase their yield or no investor is going to buy their debt. Would companies like Rite Aid survive when it needs to pay 8% yield on its debt? If they can’t borrow further then Rite Aid would need downsize their business and lay off their employees.
     
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  29. OP
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    BMBiology

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    It is also possible that corporate debt goes out of control first and the Fed would need to keep on printing money to cause inflation and tame corporate debt so they don’t have to downsize and lay off their employees
     
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  30. Pharm.C.

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    Nah, corporate debt will get out of control and the Fed will cut rates/more QE which won't stop the bleeding for awhile at least. Layoffs and downsizing will happen, but we won't enter the next depression thanks to yet more bubble subsidizing (too big to fail). All the fed has to do is cut rates in the downturn and start raising sooner and more gradually on the upside and then pause and stop throwing the financial system out of wack for good. Honestly, the healthiest thing for the economy over the next 5-10 years would be for the stock market and housing to go sideways (soft landing) and put an end to this experiment we've been conducting over the past 40 years. Otherwise, buckle up for more boom and bust culminating in the next depression once the system becomes unsustainable (the rubber band snaps).
     
  31. Momus

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    “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

    I would have been at least another $500k wealthier if I did everything perfect. This quote definitely resonate with a LOT of investors trying to time the market in the last decade.
     
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  32. Pharm.C.

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    Agreed. As I have before. Just talking about the economy. Understanding how it works is important. The average person is not prepared for an eventual recession. People have short memories and make financial plans based on extrapolating performance from the past 10 years to the next 10.
     
  33. OP
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    BMBiology

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    ImageUploadedBySDN1549934156.125260.jpg
     
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  34. OP
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    BMBiology

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    Obviously it is very difficult to time the market exactly. However, that does not mean you should not be careful.
     
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  35. Pharm.C.

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    The problem is that 5% annualized return can mean another 5-10 years of gains stimulated by tax cuts (stock buybacks in reality) and whatever other kind of nonsense followed by a crash. Or a crash tomorrow followed by gains. It really is hard to time the market. The only thing that's certain is that the government will ruin it eventually.

    We cut taxes in 20's and subsequently crashed. We cut taxes in the 80's and then had a 20-year rally. Assets were undervalued in the 80's though from a long period of consolidation.
     
    #4685 Pharm.C., Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  36. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    That's not the Feds fault. They are just reacting to how poorly the economy is being managed by Washington.
     
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  37. BenJammin

    BenJammin No Apologies
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    My personal rate of return in my roth IRA is 6.2% so I feel fine
     
  38. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    So after months of cobbling together clearance, black friday, and other miscellaneous deals, I have enough components for my new gaming rig. Cost me about $705. PCPartPicker price over $1000.

    So I'm excited about that.
     
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  39. Momus

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    I thought you had 1070 long time ago.

    I bought a 1060 Dell laptop for $750 in Nov 2017 BF deal. It's decent.
     
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  40. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    Yup. That's the only carryover. I bought it in 2017 off of jet.com when they were running that 30% off your first purchase promotion that stacked with their sales. I was using an old Intel 2600k and really slow RAM... From 2012. It was starting to bottleneck newer AAA games. It was time for an overhaul.
     
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  41. PharmDBro2017

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    Nice, what games you play? Got rtx 2080 on a steal on black friday and been killing it ever since.
     
  42. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
    Pharmacist 15+ Year Member

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    Anything cool on Vive (loving Beat Saber right now) and whatever I can pirate for free off of Fit Girl.
     
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  43. gwarm01

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    Most of my current build was put together in 2013. I've got an old processor, old RAM, old motherboard. GPU from 2015 and a tiny SSD from around then too. I really want to build a new PC from scratch, but somehow this thing is still able to play new games at acceptable framerates. Probably because I still have my 1080p monitor from 2011.

    I'm in a tiny apartment at the moment, but when I get more space it'll be time to start fresh. There are so many new things out there.. like these insane ultra widescreen monitors. I can't wait.
     
  44. WVUPharm2007

    WVUPharm2007 imagine sisyphus happy
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    Windows 10 with an SSD is pleasingly fast. From post to mouse cursor is 13 seconds for me. Love it. The old machine with it's mechanical snail running the show would take several agonizing minutes.
     
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  45. Momus

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    I've been downloading the most expensive turbo tax home and business for so long >_>; Kickass, torrentz, tpb are my go to sites for any software, music or movies.
     
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  46. OP
    OP
    BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~!
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    Debt, debt, debt:

    ImageUploadedBySDN1550009899.239678.jpg
     
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  47. Balls on the Line

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    Cleveland Fed Mester says QT will be ending in upcoming meetings.

    So all we could do is get to 2.5% and allow a crummy 500B roll off before the wheels came off? But they said the economy was strong.

    What's next? Zero percent? Below zero?

    Commercial banks stuffed to the gills with Treasuries in hold to maturity accounts since politically Fed can take balance sheet to 20T?

    HTM accounting extended to ETFs?

    Negative income tax?
     
  48. OP
    OP
    BMBiology

    BMBiology temporarily banned~!
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    Retail is hurting:

    ImageUploadedBySDN1550154458.701647.jpg
     
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  49. Balls on the Line

    Balls on the Line Membership Revoked
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    The system cannot tolerate in drop in collateral values. Think of all those anchor stores being shuttered. I would check my exposure to mall properties in any of those vanguard etfs or reits.

    Wait until the RMB is devalued 25% overnite.
     
  50. Pharm.C.

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    I'm too lazy to look at CVS's financials and debt obligations to see if they would survive a 2008 style reduction in revenue. I'm guessing since we've already cut hours to less than what is actually needed to fill prescriptions at a lot of stores the answer is maybe not. And that's with an economy at full steam.

    Edit: CVS makes about 6-7 billion in net income last time I checked and in some years over the coming decades they'll have to pay off 6-9 billion a year. It's almost like being 200k in debt making 100k a year at 30 hours per week...
     
    #4700 Pharm.C., Feb 14, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019

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