The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[Momus]

Is this just CVS/wag or any employer?

Every company is different. Some has a true up match, cvs and wag don't. Some people are HCE in their company and can only contribute $9000/yr. Read your 401k plan.

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[Momus]

I'll just lower mine a bit.

As long as you contribute $730.7/2 weeks to max out $19,000 and adjust the % if u work OTs, you should be OK.

 

[mentos]

Is this just CVS/wag or any employer?

I actually never heard of true up in any field until I worked for CVS, but now that's gone. It makes sense for the company, a lot of people will be too lazy to calculate what percentage to get the full match so they'll save money.

 

[footfairy]

I actually never heard of true up in any field until I worked for CVS, but now that's gone. It makes sense for the company, a lot of people will be too lazy to calculate what percentage to get the full match so they'll save money.

I wonder how big of a difference it makes to them overall. I know that almost no one Ive worked with in my time in retail actually maxes their 401k. A lot don't even put in enough to meet the match let alone hit the contribution limit early.

 

[mentos]

I wonder how big of a difference it makes to them overall. I know that almost no one Ive worked with in my time in retail actually maxes their 401k. A lot don't even put in enough to meet the match let alone hit the contribution limit early.

I'm sure it's a lot. It's not just pharmacists but all the techs and front store employees too in the entire country.

 

[Momus]

I wonder how big of a difference it makes to them overall. I know that almost no one Ive worked with in my time in retail actually maxes their 401k. A lot don't even put in enough to meet the match let alone hit the contribution limit early.

I hit max last paycheck. My company has no match so I like to front load mine. I'm at $350k balance that's for 11 yrs contribution. It would have been at least $450k with 4% match, oh well :-/ At least, I have a large taxable account.

 

[mentos]

I hit max last paycheck. My company has no match so I like to front load mine. I'm at $350k balance that's for 11 yrs contribution. It would have been at least $450k with 4% match, oh well :-/ At least, I have a large taxable account.

No match? That's lame. I've heard of 2 or 3% but zero sucks!

 

[mentos]

Bought more today.

Also bought 100 LRCX today at 175.

Hello hawk,

I added 2,000 shares cost average 63 dollars. I'm more of a technical trader. The way i see it on a monthly time frame the worse we should do is the 200ma at 50 dollars a share which would yield 4%. So assuming worse case scenario is another 10 dollars downside from here assuming SPY pulls back/worse than expected omnicare from here/pbm loses vs trump. If it falls below 50 dollars for extended period of time then i wouldn't just worry about the stock, I would worry about employment for many colleagues.

positives:

• there is no way that medicaid for all will pass. Its fiscally impossible from a debt to GDP point of view. If obama coudn't get it through i doubt it'll happen until we hit a great depression. If anything the most we'll get is a obamacare 1.1 version. Aetna will get a large piece of the pie.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/um2DCzNM/

Are you guys still buying more CVS? It's getting closer to $50/share already.

 

[tylenolnumber3]

Are you guys still buying more CVS? It's getting closer to $50/share already.

With espp should get shares around 45-50 by June. Shares in the that range will be yield dividend of 4.2-4.4%. Will do a final buyin if it pushes the 50 mark for a cost average around 57-58. Unless they cut their 2.00 per share dividend your cost average will be 47-48 in five years. I have room to work with since I traded the 401k last year with cvs/spy for 25% profit in a -8% market. If cvs goes into the 40s and Walgreens drops into the 50s then you can put the nail in the coffin that 48-50 dollar offers are coming a lot sooner than you can imagine.

When you think about it drug cost 10% of the healthcare spending. Pbm like Caremark makes 3% profit. Although they are part of the problem, healthcare cost in large part due to doctors and hospitals. Pbms need to come out of this war with drug companies on Congress with a less than worse expected hit.

When does pharmacy reimbursement stop getting worse?

How does the idea of single care payer affect Aetna? Obviously Medicare and Medicaid is already incompetent can’t imagine healthcare being taken care of by the govt.

Obvious cvs overpaid for Aetna by atleast 10-20 billion.
There’s a **** load of headwinds to navigate through but if cvs can get two of those out of the way this year it’s a start

 

[Modest_anteater]

Avoid the UBER IPO. that is all I have to say.


AVOID THE UBER IPO.

YOU
HAVE
BEEN
WARNED.

 

[lane one]

Avoid the UBER IPO. that is all I have to say.


AVOID THE UBER IPO.

YOU
HAVE
BEEN
WARNED.

GO ON...

 

[streetskooler]

WBA is at a 52 week low. Anyone working there can buy stock at a 10% discount too. Anyone taking a gamble at these levels? It really can’t get too much lower from here can it?

 

[mentos]

WBA is at a 52 week low. Anyone working there can buy stock at a 10% discount too. Anyone taking a gamble at these levels? It really can’t get too much lower from here can it?

It can go to zero.

 

[BenJammin]

I'm riding high on VNQ

 

[ecrofom]

Buying company stock through 401k is better. No fees and it's pre-tax money! Better than a 10% or w/e discount and being forced to hold for some time before you can sell

 

[Thoughtfulsinner]

You should be contributing to 401k just enough to get a match, then contributing to your personal IRA to max, then contributing to 401k to max in that order. So if you contribute more than 5% you should have something other than cvs or large cap in your portfolio since you would have unlimited investment options with your personal IRA money.

You should max HSA before IRA.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I just max all three *shrugs*

 

[mentos]

I just max all three *shrugs*

They're probably referring to new grads who have a lot of loans to pay and can't afford to max all 3.

 

[BenJammin]

You should max HSA before IRA.

Not everyone qualifies for one

 

[gwarm01]

Another 737 MAX has crashed, killing all on board. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to that.
edit: I immediately realized how this statement makes me look like a cold hearted capitalist, so I'd like to say this was a terrible tragedy and I hope Boeing is able to make these planes safer.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Another 737 MAX has crashed, killing all on board. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to that.
edit: I immediately realized how this statement makes me look like a cold hearted capitalist, so I'd like to say this was a terrible tragedy and I hope Boeing is able to make these planes safer.

I was just on one of these a week ago flying to Edinburgh and back. Yeesh.

 

[gwarm01]

I was just on one of these a week ago flying to Edinburgh and back. Yeesh.

Maybe that's why your flight was so cheap.

 

[lane one]

Another 737 MAX has crashed, killing all on board. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to that.
edit: I immediately realized how this statement makes me look like a cold hearted capitalist, so I'd like to say this was a terrible tragedy and I hope Boeing is able to make these planes safer.

Was wondering the same thing when I saw the news...in the least cold hearted capitalist kind of way.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

It is a very nice plane, though. Ridiculous amounts of overhead storage. Comfy seats. I enjoyed the fight. Glad I didn't perish, obviously.

 

[Momus]

Buying $3M term life before I hop on one of those.

 

[Momus]

I don't really care much if we go bear from today 30 years later it doesn't fuggin matter what today price is.

10 Years After the Drop, More Proof You Can't Time the Market
Let’s say someone had the worst timing in the world and bought that total stock index fund on October 9, 2007, when the market peaked. Let’s also assume they had the courage to do nothing. The $10,000 investment would be worth $22,760 today, a respectable 7.5 percent annualized return. Even that 55 percent plunge doesn’t look so bad with a little more perspective. The numbers support the saying that “time in the market is more important than timing the market.”

 

[wagrxm2000]

Just want to put this out there. With inflation and dividends, the annualized return since Jan 2000 has been 3.3%, not the 7 to 10% most people use. Without inflation, it's 5.5%.

Shorten that even more to ten years from Jan 2000 and you actually saw a negative annual return. This is obviously for those looking to retire in ten years.

My point? There's a good chance we will be having another lost decade and for people like me, the only gains we will be seeing is off new investments. Sure I have a little over $250k sitting on the sidelines now so I'll be fine but the average American does not.

 

[mentos]

Just want to put this out there. With inflation and dividends, the annualized return since Jan 2000 has been 3.3%, not the 7 to 10% most people use. Without inflation, it's 5.5%.

Shorten that even more to ten years from Jan 2000 and you actually saw a negative annual return. This is obviously for those looking to retire in ten years.

My point? There's a good chance we will be having another lost decade and for people like me, the only gains we will be seeing is off new investments. Sure I have a little over $250k sitting on the sidelines now so I'll be fine but the average American does not.

Is the 5.5% before or after taxes? How should we invest our money then?

 

[BMBiology]

Inflation adjusted from Jan 2000 until Feb 2019:

 

[Momus]

Just want to put this out there. With inflation and dividends, the annualized return since Jan 2000 has been 3.3%, not the 7 to 10% most people use. Without inflation, it's 5.5%.

Shorten that even more to ten years from Jan 2000 and you actually saw a negative annual return. This is obviously for those looking to retire in ten years.

My point? There's a good chance we will be having another lost decade and for people like me, the only gains we will be seeing is off new investments. Sure I have a little over $250k sitting on the sidelines now so I'll be fine but the average American does not.

I don't care if 1 year of your earning got 3.3% after inflation adjusted (you probably have $40k max that year lol). Heck, it doesn't sound bad AFTER inflation. I'll be happy to get 3.3% REAL return at the WORST time. You added money every year for the next 18 years; and every single one of those years, it has made more money than you could ever imagine. Looked where it got you now. That's how people invest.

Folks, you need to see it for yourself S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment - DQYDJ

 

[wagrxm2000]

I don't care if 1 year of your earning got 3.3% after inflation adjusted (you probably have $40k max that year lol). Heck, it doesn't sound bad AFTER inflation. I'll be happy to get 3.3% REAL return at the WORST time. You added money every year for the next 18 years; and every single one of those years, it has made more money than you could ever imagine. Looked where it got you now. That's how people invest.

Folks, you need to see it for yourself S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment - DQYDJ

All I'm saying is when people estimate their returns, 5% should be the high range going forward, not the low. Every "expert" will tell you to use 7 to 10%. Just think of where you would be if you started in 2000 instead of 2008. Instead of a multimillionaire, you probably wouldn't even have a million.

Not saying the market isn't the best bet going forward, just people need to lower their expectations. I'd say 5% before inflation going forward for the next 20 years is safe with 2% over the next 10 years before inflation.

 

[rxdawg21]

All I'm saying is when people estimate their returns, 5% should be the high range going forward, not the low. Every "expert" will tell you to use 7 to 10%. Just think of where you would be if you started in 2000 instead of 2008. Instead of a multimillionaire, you probably wouldn't even have a million.

Not saying the market isn't the best bet going forward, just people need to lower their expectations. I'd say 5% before inflation going forward for the next 20 years is safe with 2% over the next 10 years after inflation.

My understanding is the people that use 7-10% are using numbers not adjusted for inflation. However, most recent numbers have been thrown out of 2-3% "real" which would be after inflation by several experts. That would match up to your 5% before inflation. I feel unless something unprecedented happens, those dollar cost averaging with each paycheck and reinvesting dividends (which you would in a retirement account) will do just fine. I would love for a similar bull market 20 years from now when I have a much larger nest egg.

 

[Momus]

All I'm saying is when people estimate their returns, 5% should be the high range going forward, not the low. Every "expert" will tell you to use 7 to 10%. Just think of where you would be if you started in 2000 instead of 2008. Instead of a multimillionaire, you probably wouldn't even have a million.

Not saying the market isn't the best bet going forward, just people need to lower their expectations. I'd say 5% before inflation going forward for the next 20 years is safe with 2% over the next 10 years before inflation.

Fair assessment.

For people who are scared of the market now, they should just put money in their mattress and take a guaranteed -3% real return.

 

[wagrxm2000]

My understanding is the people that use 7-10% are using numbers not adjusted for inflation. However, most recent numbers have been thrown out of 2-3% "real" which would be after inflation by several experts. That would match up to your 5% before inflation. I feel unless something unprecedented happens, those dollar cost averaging with each paycheck and reinvesting dividends (which you would in a retirement account) will do just fine. I would love for a similar bull market 20 years from now when I have a much larger nest egg.

My estimates are not for a new investor but an investor looking at a retirement date. If you are retiring in 10 years, your current net worth will probably be the same plus whatever you add going forward. If you are trying to figure out a twenty year return rate and how much you need to add each year, use 5%.

It's only for new investors by lowering their expectations.

 

[BMBiology]

My estimates are not for a new investor but an investor looking at a retirement date. If you are retiring in 10 years, your current net worth will probably be the same plus whatever you add going forward. If you are trying to figure out a twenty year return rate and how much you need to add each year, use 5%.

It's only for new investors by lowering their expectations.

Isn’t that what I have been saying? It is no longer easy money.

 

[Momus]

You guys know I just have to post this
Check out this graphic and sleep tight on your retirement account - MarketWatch

 

[gwarm01]

Trump just grounded the 737 Max in the US.

I'm getting the itch to buy some Boeing while it's down, although they are still sitting much higher than just a couple years back.

Actually, I'm getting the itch to buy a couple thousand dollars worth of Ford. It's low cost and has a good dividend. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Trump just grounded the 737 Max in the US.

I'm getting the itch to buy some Boeing while it's down, although they are still sitting much higher than just a couple years back.

Actually, I'm getting the itch to buy a couple thousand dollars worth of Ford. It's low cost and has a good dividend. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea.

If Boeing is an easy fix it's definitely a buy but they might have to spend a ton to fix their issues.

FAA doesn't seem to have any issues with the planes. (Edit they changed their position) Traders seem to think it'll fall another 5%.

Ford is the same as it was 3 years ago and look what it has done. You could have said why not buy it then and be down 40%.

 

[BMBiology]

Xi is just stringing Trump along and buying time.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Xi is just stringing Trump along and buying time.

There is a 100% chance a deal is done. Now whether that deal is even remotely better then what we were already doing is slim but Trump needs more things to run under and saying he made an amazing deal with China will be one of them.

 

[Momus]

In an Industry Dominated by Netflix and Amazon, Streaming Startup Pluto TV Found a Way to Win--and Got Acquired by Viacom for $340 Million

Never heard this company before but I bookmarked it for later viewing if I wanted TV with ads... Why do people still have cable?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Tesla is at that range where it always shoots up....fyi

 

[WVUPharm2007]

So this Andrew Yang guy is basically taking all of my thoughts on the death of labor due to AI/automation...and the need for a huge shift in paradigm for our economy that
I've repeatedly made over the last decade on here...and is running for president on it...and apparently is becoming popular.

So that's cool. Mikey's student doctor thoughts are making it to the national stage finally.

 

[BMBiology]

So this Andrew Yang guy is basically taking all of my thoughts on the death of labor due to AI/automation...and the need for a huge shift in paradigm for our economy that
I've repeatedly made over the last decade on here...and is running for president on it...and apparently is becoming popular.

So that's cool. Mikey's student doctor thoughts are making it to the national stage finally.

I think all the smart people know AI/automation cannot be avoided.

Knowing about it is one thing but without action, it is meaningless. I, therefore, have been positioning myself for this coming tsunami. Most people won’t even see it but once it is in their sight, it is already too late.

 

[wagrxm2000]

So this Andrew Yang guy is basically taking all of my thoughts on the death of labor due to AI/automation...and the need for a huge shift in paradigm for our economy that
I've repeatedly made over the last decade on here...and is running for president on it...and apparently is becoming popular.

So that's cool. Mikey's student doctor thoughts are making it to the national stage finally.

The guy who is against circumcision?

Or even better, $1k a month to all adults?

Don't worry he isn't going very far.

 

[BMBiology]

The guy who is against circumcision?

Or even better, $1k a month to all adults?

Don't worry he isn't going very far.

Is Trump for circumcision? Is that's why you are voting for him?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Is Trump for circumcision? Is that's why you are voting for him?

I just found it funny he had a stance on it.

Why you so serious????

Anyways, the $1k for all is the part you should be commenting on.

 

[BMBiology]

I just found it funny he had a stance on it.

Why you so serious????

Anyways, the $1k for all is the part you should be commenting on.

I am all for $1 k a month for 18-64 years old. It would give Americans a peace of mind as we transitioned to a new world.

I also like that fact that if you are already getting government subsidies like food stamps, disabilities you are NOT getting an additional $1 k a month. $1 k is the max you can get. This would discourage people from trying to game the system. It would instead encourage people to take more risk and pursue a more rewarding career.

I don't see AI/automation as an evil thing. It would probably cause deflation so things will be cheaper. I like how Yang sees it coming and more importantly, he is working on a solution now. I think timing is essential. We need to get this right.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I am all for $1 k a month for 18-64 years old. It would give Americans a peace of mind as we transitioned to a new world.

I also like that fact that if you are already getting government subsidies like food stamps, disabilities you are NOT getting an additional $1 k a month. $1 k is the max you can get. This would discourage people from trying to game the system. It would instead encourage people to take more risk and pursue a more rewarding career.

I don't see AI/automation as an evil thing. It would probably cause deflation so things will be cheaper. I like how Yang sees it coming and more importantly, he is working on a solution now. I think timing is essential. We need to get this right.

Problem with $1k a month is all it's going to do is cause inflation. He says it'll be paid by VAT tax but do you really think companies are just going to accept it without increasing the costs of goods? Well or they would just leave the country.

Oh and China is actually lowering some VAT tax to help it's economy. Go ahead and put a VAT tax in place and really watch us go into a recession.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Being a student of Sartre and Camus, I like to step back and observe the absurdities of our existence. And the whole "4th industrial revolution potentially resulting in the death of labor" thing begs the question. How stupid is our economic system that machines doing all the work somehow results in a society-level crisis?

But its inevitable. They are even replacing human creativity.



That **** was composed by an AI. This is AI composer 1.0. They feed it examples of songs from the past that elicit emotion. Imagine what AI music will sound like in 10 years.

You think human intellectual and physicial labor are going to continue to be a means to support ones self in the future? lol.

I'm just happy people are finally talking about it. When Tesla and Amazon replace truck drivers, it's going to be REALLY bad. That's 7 years away or so. WTF are we going to do? The free market isn't going to have a solution for human beings not having marketable skills anymore.