The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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I am 50/50%. 50% in Equities, and 50% in Cash. I just put the same amount into the market every paycheck, but I have about 150k on the sidelines just waiting. I regret not deploying that huge chunk of capital in December 2018...but I honestly thought we were going to see SPY 200-220 where I would of averaged in.

Alas, you can't time the market. Just have to be more aggressive next time.

I only ask because many people miss out by waiting too long. So if we have another 10% will you get in or at this point are you waiting for a full on 30 to 50% crash?

I still see another 16% in our future (Dow 30k) so you may continue to lose out.

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I only ask because many people miss out by waiting too long. So if we have another 10% will you get in or at this point are you waiting for a full on 30 to 50% crash?

I still see another 16% in our future (Dow 30k) so you may continue to lose out.

Well what I will say is that I agree with what you are saying. If the fed presents a dovish view today, I will deploy 25% today. I am skeptical of Jan-March run-up but if the fed presents Dovish views, then the rally will be sustained.

That being said, I am invested in stocks like Visa, Mastercard, Square, Paypal, Sbux, TWLO, TTD, AYX- all stocks that came back roaring higher after the correction. So technically, these stocks are sorta insulated from the macroeconomics of the world as they are growth stocks... but I want to add to these positions cheaper.

So yes I do agree I will lose out if I hold out- but I'm waiting to see if this rally will be sustained and the fed meeting will really give light into this. The only reason we are up today imo is based on the feds decision to quit QT and possibly starting QE as stated back in Dec/Jan. The fed/central banks matter way more then most people realize.
 
Yes I'm sure the government with a huge increase in tax revenue will know exactly what to do with it.

Sure Yang could be president for 4-8 years, but what happens when another Trump or ultra conservative is elected and they "decide" that all this new tax money would do the public greater good if all that money was given to big corporations because you know, when they have more money they make more jobs.

I wouldn't trust my current state government with $5 to spend it properly.
 
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Well what I will say is that I agree with what you are saying. If the fed presents a dovish view today, I will deploy 25% today. I am skeptical of Jan-March run-up but if the fed presents Dovish views, then the rally will be sustained.

That being said, I am invested in stocks like Visa, Mastercard, Square, Paypal, Sbux, TWLO, TTD, AYX- all stocks that came back roaring higher after the correction. So technically, these stocks are sorta insulated from the macroeconomics of the world as they are growth stocks... but I want to add to these positions cheaper.

So yes I do agree I will lose out if I hold out- but I'm waiting to see if this rally will be sustained and the fed meeting will really give light into this. The only reason we are up today imo is based on the feds decision to quit QT and possibly starting QE as stated back in Dec/Jan. The fed/central banks matter way more then most people realize.
Why are you invested in 4 payment processor stocks?
 
Why are you invested in 4 payment processor stocks?

Big fintech fan. MC/VISA are duopolys in the plastic card business processinng business and that isn't going away any time soon.

Square is a play on small business payment processors and creation of a moat for small business.

Paypal is different then square and MC/VISA. They are more or less online payments which is different then Squares moat. Alot of payments I make online are through Paypal while small business is through SQ. Paypal is a good play on B2B payment systems. Plus everyone uses Venmo.

I'm huge on fintech. Fiat is a thing of the past. My only concern is SQ is overvaluation. MC/VISA is a technically a middleman processor and everyone wants to get rid of the middleman to save costs...but for now I'm long on them.

Just my opinions.
 
If the economy is doing so well, how come the Fed can’t raise rate? Do they think we are heading toward a recession?

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If the economy is doing so well, how come the Fed can’t raise rate? So they think we are heading toward a recession?

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Just added to my core positions after hearing the Fed News. Spy300 incoming.

Because the world's economy is built on cheap money after 2008 and those that benefit the most on cheap money are the corporations and the 1%. In my opinion, the free market ended in 2008 when the gov had to bail out the banks. 2008 should of been the END of capitalism. But if the banks never got a bailout, it would of been the collapsed of civilization.

Today, we just keep up the QE, possibly stunt our GDP growth, and just keep the market and economy afloat.

If you look at Japan's economy, the bank of japan owns 40% of ETF's and that's it. It has become a managed market controlled by the government.

If you can't beat them...join them. The wage gap between the rich and poor will increase and the middle class will dwindle. But we got credit cards, we got payday loans, we got an apple watch, and all the mcdonalds that we can eat. Why change? I do think that if there is a change in leadership in 2020 to a democrat in the house/senate/presidency...that we will have a big market correction. Just my opinion.
 
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Fed downgraded economic growth to just 2.1 for this year.
 
Hey!!! I'm still in my 40s.

No I'd retire, I'm under 10 years left until I'm done and can live beyond comfortably. Kids will be gone soon too. However, you don't think people in their 40s and 50s can learn a new skill? Someone in their 40s might still have over 20 years left of working.

So what is your plan? Give enough handouts to support the 45% that are without jobs? How do you decide who has to work and who gets to lay around all day?

You are too old to be retrained. You have the luxury of retiring (even though $200 k is not a lot of money) but many Americans in their 50s have to keep working. Basic income means everyone from 18-64 years old gets $1000 a month. They can use it for whatever they want. You can put restriction on millionaires so they won't get it but that means you would have to verify everyone's income which will cost a lot more than just giving it to everyone.

Get real...how are you going to live on $1000 a month? Even the midwest can't be that cheap!!
 
You sound like you have sour grapes from missing out on the stock market rally.

I am making a lot more money in real estate. You can have your 8% a year. It is not going to change your life but making bags of money in real estate will!

I still have plenty of money in the stock market. If it goes up, I also make money!
 
Walgreens is up almost 3% today. I have met my 1 year limitation. I think 90 is a good selling price. I still have Amazon stocks and I will meet the 1 year limitation in December.

The longer the fed keeps rate at 0, the more risk it will take not just with one bubble but with multiple bubbles.

So glad I sold Walgreens three years ago @ 90 (near its peak).

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So glad I sold Walgreens three years ago @ 90 (near its peak).

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Still pulling out that dead horse from 2015? I have made tens of thousands of dollars on WBA ESPP after 2015 by buying the troughs and selling at the highs, then using the same money to buy them again the next year with another 10% ESPP discount. WBA is not a buy and hold stock.

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Still pulling out that dead horse from 2015? I have made tens of thousands of dollars on WBA ESPP after 2015 by buying the troughs and selling at the highs, then using the same money to buy them again the next year with another 10% ESPP discount. WBA is not a buy and hold stock.

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This does not show you made “tens of thousands on WBA ESPP” from 2015-2019. Post again.
 
This does not show you made “tens of thousands on WBA ESPP” from 2015-2019. Post again.
You know what. You made me realize there's a mistake on that statement. There should be a line for "Additions 22k", so that it is taken off the Change in Investment Value. Anyway, here's my realized gains on WBA from 2015-2018:

Fidelity.PNG
 
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You are too old to be retrained. You have the luxury of retiring (even though $200 k is not a lot of money) but many Americans in their 50s have to keep working. Basic income means everyone from 18-64 years old gets $1000 a month. They can use it for whatever they want. You can put restriction on millionaires so they won't get it but that means you would have to verify everyone's income which will cost a lot more than just giving it to everyone.

Get real...how are you going to live on $1000 a month? Even the midwest can't be that cheap!!


Why do you keep saying I only have $200k? Also again, not 50.

Our net worth blows you away. (Sorry if I assume wrong that it's just you in your life but the way you act it feels that way)

Also there's not a career I couldn't do.

Finally why do you keep ignoring the fact that this hurts the poor that wouldn't get the $1000 but still be paying more?
 
You know what. You made me realize there's a mistake on that statement. There should be a line for "Additions 22k", so that it is taken off the Change in Investment Value. Anyway, here's my realized gains on WBA from 2015-2018:

View attachment 254755

Lets calculate....you spent $161,019 to buy 2452 shares (after 10% discount + dividend). Today, the stock is at $62.72 (almost 10% drop from Dec 31). So, your 2352 shares are now worth $153,789?
 
It sure would suck being stuck with a bunch of real estate and not being able to sell when you need to (cough like at market tops)
 
It sure would suck being stuck with a bunch of real estate and not being able to sell when you need to (cough like at market tops)

Sorry pal...I am not selling my real estate investment for 30 years. Why sell when I am making rental income while paying zero tax on the income? I guess buying a good house does take some work and skill. Too bad you can't do it!

Didn't Trump make his money in real estate? You should have followed him since he's like a God to you! Forget your measly 8% return.
 
Finally why do you keep ignoring the fact that this hurts the poor that wouldn't get the $1000 but still be paying more?

When did you start caring for the poor? If someone is able to work, why shouldn't he/she work and contribute to society like everybody else?

If this person works, then he/she would not only get a salary but also $1000 monthly dividend. This would encourage people to work and not dependent on the government for handouts. How is this a bad thing?
 
When did you start caring for the poor? If someone is able to work, why shouldn't he/she work and contribute to society like everybody else?

If this person works, then he/she would not only get a salary but also $1000 monthly dividend. This would encourage people to work and not dependent on the government for handouts. How is this a bad thing?
Why should a person work for $30k a year when they can live off the government?
 
Sorry pal...I am not selling my real estate investment for 30 years. Why sell when I am making rental income while paying zero tax on the income? I guess buying a good house does take some work and skill. Too bad you can't do it!

Didn't Trump make his money in real estate? You should have followed him since he's like a God to you! Forget your measly 8% return.

Remember this post, this will end badly for you.
 
Why should a person work for $30k a year when they can live off the government?

There you go...more incentive to work. According to you, there will be inflation so the government handout they are currently receiving will become less. I am sure their current government handout is more than $1000 so they will not get the $1000 dividend. Problem solved.
 
Remember this post, this will end badly for you.

I didn't become wealthy by not taking calculated risk! I am positioning myself to buy more properties if and when RE drop. That is actually my best case scenario.
 
I didn't become wealthy by not taking calculated risk! I am positioning myself to buy more properties if and when RE drop. That is actually my best case scenario.

Why aren't you waiting until the bubble pops? It's foolish to buy at these levels.
 
Why aren't you waiting until the bubble pops? It's foolish to buy at these levels.

Cant time the RE market. It is harder than trying to time the stock market! For RE to drop...guess what needs to happen first? The stock market would need explode and there needs to be a massive recession. People are not going to sell their house at a loss if they still have a job and can afford the mortgage. RE is the last thing they will sell. Therefore, RE is much more stable than the stock market.

Rents didn't even go down during the housing crisis so I am good regardless. Besides, I got a great deal on those houses. Not selling!
 
Cant time the RE market. It is harder than trying to time the stock market! For RE to drop...guess what needs to happen first? The stock market would need explode and there needs to be a massive recession. People are not going to sell their house at a loss if they still have a job and can afford the mortgage. RE is the last thing they will sell. Therefore, RE is much more stable than the stock market.

Rents didn't even go down during the housing crisis so I am good regardless. Besides, I got a great deal on those houses. Not selling!

Hmm great deal on the houses huh, I see what area you are buying in. Good luck with that.
 
Lets calculate....you spent $161,019 to buy 2452 shares (after 10% discount + dividend). Today, the stock is at $62.72 (almost 10% drop from Dec 31). So, your 2352 shares are now worth $153,789?
WTF are you talking about? "Realized Gains" and "Proceeds $193,992" means I've already sold the shares. I have never held 2452 shares all at once. In fact, on 12/31/18 I had a measly 14.622 shares x $68.33 [closing price on 12/31/18] = $999 which is the "Ending Account Value" on the statement I posted earlier.
 
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WTF are you talking about? "Realized Gains" and "Proceeds $193,992" means I've already sold the shares. I have never held 2452 shares all at once. In fact, on 12/31/18 I had a measly 14.622 shares x $68.33 [closing price on 12/31/18] = $999 which is the "Ending Account Value" on the statement I posted earlier.

You should have sold earlier and you would have made some real money. Making a measly profit of $33 k on $161 k investment is nothing to brag about. That is way below the S&P 500! You would have made more money by just paying off your debt!

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I have to say I’m a little shocked to find so much enthusiasm for larger government in this thread. Larger government has never been the answer, ever.
 
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I have to say I’m a little shocked to find so much enthusiasm for larger government in this thread. Larger government has never been the answer, ever.
There's a disproportionate amount of Californians here, nuff said.
 
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I have to say I’m a little shocked to find so much enthusiasm for larger government in this thread. Larger government has never been the answer, ever.

How is giving money to adults and letting them spend it on whatever they want considered as "big government"? Should we get rid of social security too?

I am a capitalist. It has worked exceptional well for me but capitalism must work for the vast majority of people in order for it to survive. Right now, it is not. We can't be stuck in dogma way of thinking. We need to change with the time.
 
How is giving money to adults and letting them spend it on whatever they want considered as "big government"? Should we get rid of social security too?

It’s not giving them money. It’s first taking my money and redistributing it to someone else. Should we get rid of social security? Umm hell ya we should. That problem is going to take care of itself in the next decade or so as it’s projected to become insolvent. Let’s go further. Should we get rid of Medicare? Absolutely. Again that’s projected to run dry soon too. I’d like the federal government to GTFO of my life as much as possible and more importantly my wallet.
 
It’s not giving them money. It’s first taking my money and redistributing it to someone else. Should we get rid of social security? Umm hell ya we should. That problem is going to take care of itself in the next decade or so as it’s projected to become insolvent. Let’s go further. Should we get rid of Medicare? Absolutely. Again that’s projected to run dry soon too. I’d like the federal government to GTFO of my life as much as possible and more importantly my wallet.

The money is coming from VAT which is a tax on companies that are not paying any federal income tax like Amazon. Why should Amazon get to spend billions in tax saving to destroy industries like pharmacy? Should they pay their own fair share?

I see that you didn't say anything about getting rid of student loans. Where the hell are you going to get money to go to graduate school? Give me a break.

Get rid of medicare? Who the hell is going to pay for your salary as a healthcare professional?
 
It’s not giving them money. It’s first taking my money and redistributing it to someone else. Should we get rid of social security? Umm hell ya we should. That problem is going to take care of itself in the next decade or so as it’s projected to become insolvent. Let’s go further. Should we get rid of Medicare? Absolutely. Again that’s projected to run dry soon too. I’d like the federal government to GTFO of my life as much as possible and more importantly my wallet.

Healthcare professional libertarians crack me up. Let's imagine the world you claim that you want.
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America dissolves all government not needed to protect property rights.

Government no longer licenses pharmacists and pharmacies.

Guy is no longer making $120,000+ year now that anyone can sell prescriptions.

*Pikachu surprised face*

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Healthcare professional libertarians crack me up. Let's imagine the world you claim that you want.
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America dissolves all government not needed to protect property rights.

Government no longer licenses pharmacists and pharmacies.

Guy is no longer making $120,000+ year now that anyone can sell prescriptions.

*Pikachu surprised face*

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Fools like him are directly benefiting from government subsidies. He should at least acknowledge that fact.
 
The money is coming from VAT which is a tax on companies that are not paying any federal income tax like Amazon. Why should Amazon get to spend billions in tax saving to destroy industries like pharmacy? Should they pay their own fair share?

I see that you didn't say anything about getting rid of student loans. Where the hell are you going to get money to go to graduate school? Give me a break.

Get rid of medicare? Who the hell is going to pay for your salary as a healthcare professional?

Regarding the VAT tax I know you’ve stated you don’t believe it will be passed on down to the consumers. As intelligent as you claim to be I’m not sure why you would believe that. As far as student loans there’s no reason why the federal government needs to subsidize them. There are plenty of alternative ways to finance a post high school education that doesn’t involve the federal government.

Where did anyone here advocate dissolving property rights?

The society that generation X has created, this deficit spending of future generations money, needs to and will come to an end sooner or later. But ya let’s add on another entitlement program of $1k/month.
 
As far as student loans there’s no reason why the federal government needs to subsidize them. There are plenty of alternative ways to finance a post high school education that doesn’t involve the federal government.

Show me one industrial country where government is not involved in financing post HS education and people still have a fair shot at college admissions....just one!
 
Show me one industrial country where government is not involved in financing post HS education and people still have a fair shot at college admissions....just one!
Well getting into college and paying for college are two different things. Like most things the government is involved in the price of college keeps going up with no end in sight. The governments job is making sure everyone has the right to go to college but not to pay for it. Maybe it’s time we find a private solution to that problem.
 
Flirted with 2.1M for 1 day and it drops back down lmao... well I get paid today; off to keep buying until I drop dead :p
 
Well getting into college and paying for college are two different things. Like most things the government is involved in the price of college keeps going up with no end in sight. The governments job is making sure everyone has the right to go to college but not to pay for it. Maybe it’s time we find a private solution to that problem.

The solution in libertarian utopia land would be that only rich kids go to college.

Of course, we could just concede that an education to grade 12 isn't sufficient for today's world. And perhaps public education that used to only go to 18 should be extended to 22 or higher for students of aptitude. And vocational training for some others. Military for others. Etc.
 
Well getting into college and paying for college are two different things. Like most things the government is involved in the price of college keeps going up with no end in sight. The governments job is making sure everyone has the right to go to college but not to pay for it. Maybe it’s time we find a private solution to that problem.

What is the point of having the right to go to college when you can’t pay for it?

This is what I am talking about it..there is too dogma in your thinking. Private sections can’t solve everything and often, there is no financial incentive to solve it...just look at healthcare. The more broken it is, the more money they make.

We need to take the good parts of both worlds. That is why I support unrestricted universal basic income. Let the consumers decide what to do with the money rather letting the government decide.
 
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The solution in libertarian utopia land would be that only rich kids go to college.

Of course, we could just concede that an education to grade 12 isn't sufficient for today's world. And perhaps public education that used to only go to 18 should be extended to 22 or higher for students of aptitude. And vocational training for some others. Military for others. Etc.
That's already happening with all the bribe cases to the ivy league uni. Rich gets more privilege, another leg up for them.
 
Flirted with 2.1M for 1 day and it drops back down lmao... well I get paid today; off to keep buying until I drop dead :p

Aww your mommy would have been proud!

And yes, welcome to the multimillionaire club. It is kinda nice here.
 
Aww your mommy would have been proud!

And yes, welcome to the multimillionaire club. It is kinda nice here.
My mom has always been proud for a hard worker, frugal son like me. Don't be jelly if your mom doesn't love you :-D
 
My mom has always been proud for a hard worker, frugal son like me. Don't be jealous if your mom doesn't love you :-D

My mom is especially proud that I am living well and making good money. She doesn’t like cheap as*.
 
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