The probability of getting into med school...almost 50/50??

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kornnata

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According to 2004 number:
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2004/2004school-2.htm

35,735 applications and 16,648 are accepted, that's about .47.

With all the hard work in college, that arduous exam, the endless essays, and the trips to interview, it sure seems more daunting than that. But I guess the number can't lie.

Anyway, good luck to everyone who already ends up or waiting to be put on the accepting half this year. :D
 

MWillie

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Depends on your ap, it's not random.
*edit- usually
 

Tra La La

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kornnata said:
According to 2004 number:
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2004/2004school-2.htm

35,735 applications and 16,648 are accepted, that's about .47.

With all the hard work in college, that arduous exam, the endless essays, and the trips to interview, it sure seems more daunting than that. But I guess the number can't lie.

Anyway, good luck to everyone who already ends up or waiting to be put on the accepting half this year. :D
...but I think that it is also important to remember that a lot of people start as pre-med in the beginning of college, but not everyone actually follows through.
 

virilep

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Tra La La said:
...but I think that it is also important to remember that a lot of people start as pre-med in the beginning of college, but not everyone actually follows through.
yeah, i think at my school 1/3 of the pre-med ppl freshman year actually end up applying. i thought that the 50-50 number wasn't that high, i thought it was lower, like 33%, guess i was wrong!
 

Law2Doc

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kornnata said:
According to 2004 number:
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2004/2004school-2.htm

35,735 applications and 16,648 are accepted, that's about .47.

With all the hard work in college, that arduous exam, the endless essays, and the trips to interview, it sure seems more daunting than that. But I guess the number can't lie.

Anyway, good luck to everyone who already ends up or waiting to be put on the accepting half this year. :D
I'm skeptical about those numbers. The total applications versus acceptances would suggest that there were 24 applicants for each seat (411k/17k). Yet most of the correspondence from med schools I have seen indicated 80+ applicants per seat. Either the applications this year dwarfed the prior year by more than three times, the distribution is drastically skewed so that some schools elsewhere offer a much much better than 50% acceptance rate (which seems unlikely), or the numbers don't factor some things (linkages, deferrals, etc) in.
 

boardchic

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Law2Doc said:
I'm skeptical about those numbers. The total applications versus acceptances would suggest that there were 24 applicants for each seat (411k/17k). Yet most of the correspondence from med schools I have seen indicated 80+ applicants per seat. Either the applications this year dwarfed the prior year by more than three times, the distribution is drastically skewed so that some schools elsewhere offer a much much better than 50% acceptance rate (which seems unlikely), or the numbers don't factor some things (linkages, deferrals, etc) in.
Most people apply to more than one school. For every person that applies, anywhere from two to thirty applications actually go in to schools.

Also, I wonder what percentage of the half that don't get accepted are either from states with no med school or states with really good, competitive med schools (california or washington...).

edit: i didn't open the link... ignore me...
 

Law2Doc

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boardchic said:
Most people apply to more than one school. For every person that applies, anywhere from two to thirty applications actually go in to schools.

Also, I wonder what percentage of the half that don't get accepted are either from states with no med school or states with really good, competitive med schools (california or washington...).

edit: i didn't open the link... ignore me...
I agree that lots of people apply to lots of schools, but that doesn't contradict my prior post. The AMCAS numbers purport to take into account the total # of applications (411k). Thus comparing them to the total number of matriculants (i.e. seats - 17k), you see there are 24 applicants per seat, assuming even distribution (which is clearly not the case). However if schools are being honest about saying that they are getting 80 applications per seat, something isn't jibing...
 

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80 apps per seat is high. Usually its around 5,000 apps for 150 seats, which is ~33 apps per seat.

Though a lot of schools are reporting apps are up a lot this year... they dont know if its from more students applying or students applying to more schools.
 

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gbiz said:
80 apps per seat is high. Usually its around 5,000 apps for 150 seats, which is ~33 apps per seat.

Though a lot of schools are reporting apps are up a lot this year... they dont know if its from more students applying or students applying to more schools.

Yeah, but the obvious point is that most pre-med students "shotgun" apply to 30 or more medical schools. I could have applied to Harvard, lets say, and I would count as one of theit 80 applicants per seat but the number is meaningless because I won't be interviewed.

If you had to send a unique paper application complete with letters and transcripts to every medical school people might only apply to the four or five places where they think they have a decent chance. AMCAS makes the situation look a lot more bleak than it is for you nervous pre-meds.

The same applies for residency. Most programs interview ten people for every spot. On the other hand, most people interview at ten or more programs (at least for competative specialties) so it will all work out in the end.

I only applied to two medical schools but in my states the odds were in my favor of getting into at least one. (Although I was accepted to both)

I think the 50/50 is more realistic. All it means is that half of the people who apply to medical school in any given year matriculate in some medical school, even if it wasn't their "dream" school.

And do I need to say that, since their are no bad medical schools, being matriculated at UAMS in Arkansas (for example) is better than being rejected at Harvard? (Don't flame me. UAMS is a great medical school.)
 

skiz knot

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virilep said:
yeah, i think at my school 1/3 of the pre-med ppl freshman year actually end up applying. i thought that the 50-50 number wasn't that high, i thought it was lower, like 33%, guess i was wrong!

In the late 80' and early to mid 90's it was much more competitive to get into medical school in the fact that there were more unique applicants for every spot available. At that time about 1/3 of applicants matriculated.
 

Scarletbegonias

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littleroo said:
Not all of the people who apply are qualified. If your numbers are good and you have good extracurriculars and a personality, your chances are higher. If you have below average numbers, your chances are lower. People with great numbers and otherwise "perfect" applications sometimes don't get in and sometimes people with low numbers do get in. That's where the randomness seems to come in. But your odds are much better if your application is strong and you apply to plenty of schools.
Some people that apply aren't qualified, BUT a lot of qualified applicants get turned down each year because of the numerous factors involved in the application process.
Also, someone posted that it used to be a lot harder to get into medical school in the 80s and 90s or something like that. That doesn't really seem right to me. I think it has increasingly gotten more competitive....after all, if you look at the trend in mcat and gpas for matriculating classes, there is an upward trend over the years. There's other evidence as well, but I don't really feel like getting into that. BUT if you have some hard evidence to suggest otherwise, please post it.
 

Timmythemic22

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Sorry if I'm hijacking the thread, but does anyone remember how huge those undergrad low-level bio classes were. The shiny smiles, the optimism "I'm going to be a doctor!" Then, slowly the first couple of weeks the back rows magically open up, and by next semester, SURPRISE, the classes are half the size. Where did those smiles go? Hmmm, then the bitterness and arrogance takes hold, and you have yourself the making of a true pre-med student, haha!

Anyway, it makes sense that those high ideals don't last long and half the population doesn't make it.
 

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Timmythemic22 said:
Sorry if I'm hijacking the thread, but does anyone remember how huge those undergrad low-level bio classes were. The shiny smiles, the optimism "I'm going to be a doctor!" Then, slowly the first couple of weeks the back rows magically open up, and by next semester, SURPRISE, the classes are half the size. Where did those smiles go? Hmmm, then the bitterness and arrogance takes hold, and you have yourself the making of a true pre-med student, haha!

Anyway, it makes sense that those high ideals don't last long and half the population doesn't make it.
Almost everybody like the idea of being a physican but far fewer are willing put in the work. Nothing unusual about that. That's why Chiropractors, naturopaths, and other pseudo-doctors like to style themselves as physicians.
 

japhy

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the notion that it was more "competitive" in the mid-90s is a bit misleading. while the percentage of applicants who were accepted were much lower (somewhere in the 35% range), the average gpa and mcat has gone up substantially in the last decade. so it is arguable that it is more competitive to get into med school these days. just some food for thought...

maybe in the 90's there were lots of poorly qualified candidates, who knows?
 

ornis4

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It depends on the school as well, right? I mean, certain schools that may have "average" accepted stats seem to always get the most applicants. I think my BU rejection letter said 60 applicants per seat this year? Well, I believe many of the upper echelon schools and obscure state schools out there receive significantly fewer applications than the group that routinely seems to draw over 10,000. Just looking quickly at an old med school guide I have lying around...Medical College of Georgia one year reported 1632 total apps for 180 incoming seats, not even 10:1, while that same year NYMC got 10985 apps for 192 seats....so I could see how the overall nationwide numbers could conceivably equal out to about 24:1.
 

skiz knot

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Scarletbegonias said:
Also, someone posted that it used to be a lot harder to get into medical school in the 80s and 90s or something like that. That doesn't really seem right to me. I think it has increasingly gotten more competitive....after all, if you look at the trend in mcat and gpas for matriculating classes, there is an upward trend over the years. There's other evidence as well, but I don't really feel like getting into that. BUT if you have some hard evidence to suggest otherwise, please post it.
You can't read very well, can you? If you re-read my post. you will see
skiz knot said:
In the late 80' and early to mid 90's it was much more competitive to get into medical school in the fact that there were more unique applicants for every spot available. At that time about 1/3 of applicants matriculated.
In addition, there is an undeniable raise in the average MCAT among all test takers during that time which would account for at least some of the increase in applicant and matriculant scores. Not to mention Grade inflation at public and private universities.
1991 Data average is 7.8/ test http://www.aamc.org/students/mcat/examineedata/sum1991.pdf
2004 test average = 8.2/ test
http://www.aamc.org/students/mcat/examineedata/sum2004.pdf
 

fun8stuff

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At my small state school about 15 people started out as premed. Only 2 of us made it to senior year and applied. Out of this 2, only one of us has MD acceptances., the other has a couple DO acceptances. This has been the way it has been the last couple years. Last year I think we had 4 people apply though, but only 1 person got an acceptance.
 

45408

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Yeah, there's easily a 60% drop-out rate for pre-meds before they ever even apply to med school.
 
B

Blade28

Remember that just because 50% of pre-med applicants get into med school, doesn't mean your chances are 50%. Depends if you're an average applicant, better-than-average, or worse-than-average.
 

Scarletbegonias

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Wow, I didn't really think my post merited an insult....but the reason why I didn't pay heed to :"in the fact that there were more unique applicants for every spot available" was that isn't a statement that is very easily proved. I certainly read it, but I took that as your personal explanation for the fact that it was said that "about 1/3 applicants matriculated." No biggie though.... you have your opinion. I have mine.
 

Scarletbegonias

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I did a little searching on the AAMC website, and I found this article from the president of the AAMC in 2000. Its a letter from the president that talks about the decline of applicants since 1996 (up to 2000, I think the number has risen since then) and it also talks about how qualified the class is compared to past classes, etc. Check it out:
http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/reporter/dec2000/word.htm
 
R

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I've always wondered how many of the 50% that don't make it are the clueless premeds that dont do anything premed-like and just apply. Like those kids with 3.0s and no clinical, volunteer, or research experience. And I know plenty of people like this, even at a top 50 school with a good medical school. Some kid goes to school, does ok (low 3s GPA), takes a prep course and does mediocre on the MCAT (24-27), and just applies. Hell, one of my really good friends is like that. I tell him he should at least think about doing some of the run-of-the-mill premed activities, but he just shrugs and says he'll get to it later. Well, buddy, we're Seniors...
 

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UNMedGa

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More to this than the numbers, I think. This is if you select any applicant at random and determine what their chances are, blind of what their app looks like. Many of the people who don't get in make mistakes that end up costing them, like applying late, applying to only a couple schools, applying to only top tiers or out of state public schools, applying with a terrible MCAT score or GPA thinking they have a great shot, etc.

Of course a good amount of qualified people don't get in but it's not like the 50% of people not getting into med school are all geniuses who executed things perfectly and it's just too competitive.
 

Dox4lyfe

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More to this than the numbers, I think. This is if you select any applicant at random and determine what their chances are, blind of what their app looks like. Many of the people who don't get in make mistakes that end up costing them, like applying late, applying to only a couple schools, applying to only top tiers or out of state public schools, applying with a terrible MCAT score or GPA thinking they have a great shot, etc.

Of course a good amount of qualified people don't get in but it's not like the 50% of people not getting into med school are all geniuses who executed things perfectly and it's just too competitive.
Omg ur avatar thing! I'm watching house of cards rn!! It's soo good.
 
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JPSmyth

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It's "50/50" because there are a lot of people applying who shouldn't be. But we need them to apply to keep the good applicants competitive. If you have a 508+ and a 3.8+ with research volunteering and shadowing, you will LIKELY get acceptances. It's the "praying for a miracle applicants" with 504s hoping to be the one exception who gets in to an MD school that make up a lot of rejections. IMO
 
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