People seem to have trouble keeping negative comments to themselves....You're supposed to be supportive of fellow pre-meds, not discourage them....."So, as long as you score between a 488-491 on your MCAT (which would put you in the bottom tenth percentile of all test-takers), you are unlikely to drop out, you're likely to graduate (admittedly in 5 years, but you will graduate), and you're even likely to pass the USMLE step 1 on your first attempt"
Though I can appreciate your optimism, I do have a few things to say about the bolded.
1. You're technically "unlikely to drop out" due to academic reasons since the odds are approximately 1 in 7,
but you're over
twice as likely to drop out as the next lowest scoring group. Not favorable odds when you're up against students that are statistically ten times less likely to drop out due to academic reasons.
2. If you were an adcom, would you want to bring in students that have a 1 in 3 chance of not graduating? Probably not. Technically still "likely" to graduate in 5, but if you were to admit 30 of these students into a class of 100, you would "likely" not graduate 10% of the entire class,
before accounting for any of the other 70 students. Not good at all, my friend. Not good.
3. It's almost shameful to call 51% "likely" when talking about passing USMLE on your first attempt. Having taken boards in two different areas of allied health, if a school told me their students have a first time pass rate of 51%, I would frankly tell them I wasn't interested. You have pretty much the same odds at winning a red/black bet at roulette as you would have at
not passing USMLE on the first attempt. Not good.
It may seem like everyone is giving "negative" advice, but in all honesty, it's just realistic. It's not a good idea to go into medicine thinking the entire world is good and just and fair and that optimism will always trump negativity. Sometimes you lose. I'm not going to say OP should not try to become a doctor, but I'm also not going to tell him/her if he/she wants it enough and dreams hard enough and studies hard enough and takes the MCAT again that it will happen. Because that's dumb. OP, if you really want to become a doctor, give it your best shot and do as much as you are willing and able to afford. It probably won't work out, so have a plan B. Crazy things happen in med school admissions. But more often than not, you're not an outlier.
Also, a last anecdote regarding Caribbean schools. I work with 3 people that attended Caribbean med school. 2 graduated. All are very intelligent and good at their jobs. But we're not physicians. We all have pretty much the same job, and my bachelor's degree (which technically isn't even a minimum requirement of the role) is a lot easier to pay off than their doctorates. So yeah, avoid the Caribbean. Unless you're the type that could go to the racetrack, bet your life savings plus a lot of money you don't have on a 8:1 underdog, and walk away saying "meh, coulda been worse".