- Joined
- Dec 25, 2006
- Messages
- 389
- Reaction score
- 0
You guys need a break from the Match, rotting in the Operating Room, Board exams, etc. So, check out www.trunkmonkey.com and have a good laugh.
Politics. Republicans are going to align themselves with the Insurance Industry and their potent PAC. The odds of a true Government run system is very small. Most likely, both parties will work out a compromise which keeps the insurance industry in the health care business for at least 20 more years.
Like it or not, politics trumps money most of the time at the Federal level.
Look at the Iraq War, the war budget, Billions of wasteful federal projects, etc. When it comes to our government you can not use "common sense" as the solution to a complex political problem. The hybrid system will happen in the next 5 years. Politics demands it.
I agree I know the political realities will favor a hybrid system. I'm simply arguing that doctors would be BETTER OFF in a pure socialized model.
I agree I know the political realities will favor a hybrid system. I'm simply arguing that doctors would be BETTER OFF in a pure socialized model.
ethermd, what would be your estimate for annually salary be for anesthesiolgists, pain physician, and anesth-CC specialists in the next 5, 10, and 20 years? i ask you, in particular, because you seem to have a good grasp on these issues, but anyone else is game to estimate.
I would like to answer this question. However, POLTICS at the Federal level has a lot do with our income. I will lay out three likely scenarios.
1. Republicans Win the White House- Modest reforms. At most a "hybrid" system like I explained above. Taxes increase about 3-5% to pay for Universal Health Care/HMO coverage for all Citizens. Medicare no longer pays the Physician/Hospital directly but rather the Insurance Company. Anesthesiologist Income increases slightly in this scenario. No major changes to SOLO MD/DO Anesthesia is needed for at least 8-10 years. The AANA is happy as well because CRNA's continue to earn Family Practice M.D. income.
Income remains stable for the first five years but decreases about 15% by 2020.
2. Democrats win the White House- Significant reforms. Still, I believe a hybrid system is available for most U.S. Citizens. Medicare and Medicaid remain available as well. All U.S. Citizens given basic health care which means Federal Medicaid for many Citizens earning a good living off the books.
Taxes increase a solid 5% and the Medicare Care tax applies to every dollar earned. This results in a big tax increase for the upper income earners.
Still, Anesthesiologist income decreases only about 15% with this scenario.
MD/DO Solo Anesthesia still exists in the lucrative spots of the USA. THe AANA is less happy but CRNA income remains at 2007 levels. Income declines gradually over the next 10 years become of more Medicare and Medicaid which results in a 30% drop in salary by 2020 compared to 2007.
3. Democrats win the WHite House- Republicans lose more seats and become a significant minority in both chambers. Ted Kennedy et al., has a field day with socialized medicine. President OBAMA signs the US government health system into law. Only 5% of U.S. Citizens can afford private insurance. SOLO MD/DO Anesthesia finished except in just a few locations. Many MD's out of work because they won't except this level of income ($150,000) as a SOLO MD. (CRNA level income now $100,000)
The Supervisor role pays $250,000 plus benefits at most hospitals. These jobs are hard to find. The MD to CRNA ratio is 7:1. The AANA is unhappy as CRNA's get a 30% pay cut. SOLO CRNA's only get a 20% pay cut. There are too many Anesthesiologists in the market place and a few go back to train in other areas. Many senior guys retire or take part-time CRNA level work.
I believe scenario One or Two will occur in the next 5-10 years. However, twenty years from now scenario three becomes more likely.
I would like to answer this question. However, POLTICS at the Federal level has a lot do with our income. I will lay out three likely scenarios.
1. Republicans Win the White House- Modest reforms. At most a "hybrid" system like I explained above. Taxes increase about 3-5% to pay for Universal Health Care/HMO coverage for all Citizens. Medicare no longer pays the Physician/Hospital directly but rather the Insurance Company. Anesthesiologist Income increases slightly in this scenario. No major changes to SOLO MD/DO Anesthesia is needed for at least 8-10 years. The AANA is happy as well because CRNA's continue to earn Family Practice M.D. income.
Income remains stable for the first five years but decreases about 15% by 2020.
2. Democrats win the White House- Significant reforms. Still, I believe a hybrid system is available for most U.S. Citizens. Medicare and Medicaid remain available as well. All U.S. Citizens given basic health care which means Federal Medicaid for many Citizens earning a good living off the books.
Taxes increase a solid 5% and the Medicare Care tax applies to every dollar earned. This results in a big tax increase for the upper income earners.
Still, Anesthesiologist income decreases only about 15% with this scenario.
MD/DO Solo Anesthesia still exists in the lucrative spots of the USA. THe AANA is less happy but CRNA income remains at 2007 levels. Income declines gradually over the next 10 years become of more Medicare and Medicaid which results in a 30% drop in salary by 2020 compared to 2007.
3. Democrats win the WHite House- Republicans lose more seats and become a significant minority in both chambers. Ted Kennedy et al., has a field day with socialized medicine. President OBAMA signs the US government health system into law. Only 5% of U.S. Citizens can afford private insurance. SOLO MD/DO Anesthesia finished except in just a few locations. Many MD's out of work because they won't except this level of income ($150,000) as a SOLO MD. (CRNA level income now $100,000)
The Supervisor role pays $250,000 plus benefits at most hospitals. These jobs are hard to find. The MD to CRNA ratio is 7:1. The AANA is unhappy as CRNA's get a 30% pay cut. SOLO CRNA's only get a 20% pay cut. There are too many Anesthesiologists in the market place and a few go back to train in other areas. Many senior guys retire or take part-time CRNA level work.
The truth of the matter is: "no one knows what will happen". Look at all of the doomsday scenarios for anesthesiology in the mid 90's. Guess what? The experts were wrong.......
Scenario #5: Doctors quit being limp-wristed, piano-handed panzys and bail on all forms of insurance. It's cash, check or credit card from now on. Don't have money?---Oh, you go over to the public hospital and they'll take care of ya over there where the docs are on salary paid by the US government like the VA system. Let the hospitals and surgery centers continue to play the insurance charade to collect their monies---not the docs. Regards,---Zip
scenario 5 is very plausible if doctor are pushed too much....politicians and insurers are aware of this
Hybrid system still maintains our salaries. Taxes go up but Health Care remains intact. Everyone (except Ted Kennedy) is afraid of too much radical change to the system. It is much easier politically and much safer to move slowly. Privatize Health Care and get the government out. Then, everyone gets to blame the insurance companies. Politicians like it that way and the public will buy it, at least for now.
What you fail to recognize is that a hybrid system wont be a 50/50 mix of public and private models.
When the public plan is offered as "free" healthcare to the public, there is going to be a MASSIVE shift from the private ot public sectors. The bottom line is people are going to fudge their income levels or do whatever they have to do to get this "free" healthcare plan.
My guess is that at least 80% of the population will switch over to the public system, quickly overwhelming it and leading to far greater costs than the politicians planned on. When that happens, the govt's first priority will be to cut costs, and of course they are going to slash doctor incomes to accomplish this.
The government currently controls about 50% of all dollars spent on healthcare. Under a hybrid system I would expect this to be at least 80% if not more. That will give the govt ENORMOUS leverage to slash doctor incomes at the altar of cost controls.
So I absolutely do NOT agree with you that "our salaries will be maintained" in a hybrid system.
Will we adopt a system like Canada? Because the current Medicare system is crap and if we want socialized Medicine then stop calling it Universal health Care and call it by its real name: Government Health Care System.
Will Co-Pays be allowed? Will the government limit the Co-Pay? Will Anesthesiology finally be treated by the government as a real Medical Specialty? Will the Relative Value system be scrapped? Will Family Practice Doctors become gatekeepers like in Britain?
Do you really think that the USA will adopt a system that is similar to the other National Healthcare plans. When I was 22, I had just come home from Europe, and was ready to haul in a new healthcare revolution in the US. "Dude, where's my healthcare?"...kind of thing. Seeing that the National systems can and do work efficiently, I didn't think my opinion would ever change...
Yet three years later I realize that although I had explored a leftist country in great detail, I had yet to fully explore my own. Once a small town kid, now an urbanite, I just don't see the same America I used to. This land of opportunity wasn't built on long traditions of attempting to sustain a culture and standard of living like those in Europe; America is and always has been a country of invention, of competition, and was actually founded with the principles of classical liberalism in mind. Do you really think that the country who put opening up free markets on the global agenda is going to hand over its admittedly flawed healthcare system to a National plan like that of our neighbors in Canada? The pharmaceutical industry that was built on this competition is without question a booster of our economy. You take away the competition on a local scale and America doesn't seem like "home" anymore. On a national scale, it now seems unimaginable to me.
I'm not saying I'm against National Healthcare Plans. Healthcare is an undeniable right, not a prerogative. Yet equally undeniable is the fact that although this country proclaims that all are equal, all do not share equal success. Healthcare can be a money-making environment, and it is the American way to squeeze as much money out of it as it/we can. Hence, I don't see us having a single-payer plan much like we've seen adopted many times before.
I think the powers that be will ensure that there is still thriving competition, and instead of focusing on state markets for insurance, plans at the federal level might make the difference to create viable low income heathcare plans. Tax reform can also increase competition, while increasing its progressivity and benefiting those who do not really pay taxes.
I don't have the answers for healthcare in America, and I don't think Canada or Denmark or anyone else will have the answer either. This is a problem that will require us to manifest a new way of thinking about solving the healthcare crisis in America as a unique, diverse, competition/consumption-driven, and money-making state. Maybe I'm the crazy one, but I think the solution is going to be another great American invention.
The irony is that means testing (having to document "need") adds to the cost of a health care system. It's actually cheaper due to lower administrative costs to just cover everyone (like Medicare does).