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US MD+DO graduates vs. residency spots

Discussion in 'Medical Students - DO' started by JT19, Aug 1, 2015.

  1. JT19

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    I've seen several posters on here say that there is in fact no shortage of residency spots for US MD and DO graduates, at least not for the next several years. However, google searches on this topic reveal nothing but doom and gloom. What's the truth? Will there be a shortage of residency spots soon?
     
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  3. Dharma

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    http://www3.med.unipmn.it/intranet/papers/2013/NEJM/2013-07-25_nejm/nejmp1306445.pdf

    Just looking at that article, the class of 2016 (MD + DO) will be around 25,321. Later in the article they stated that 25,443 positions were filled in 2013. They actually add positions every year and not all of them fill. And this does NOT include AOA, SF, and whatever other matches are out there. For our class, it's getting tight, but it certainly hasn't reached the breaking point. IMGs feeling it already.

    http://www.nrmp.org/press-release-2015-residency-match-largest-on-record-with-more-than-41000-applicants-vying-for-over-30000-residency-positions-in-4756-programs/

    30,000 slots filled for 2015 NRMP match. Doesn't include AOA spots. Still plenty of space left before the tipping point.
     
  4. jkdoctor

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    Incorrect knee jerk response imo.
    NOT 30000 PGY1 slots you see - Those are total slots in match (PGY1 and Pgy2).
    Only 27293 NRMP PGY-1 slots and PGY-1 slots are where everyone NEEDS TO BEGIN!
    Reference:
    http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ADT2015_final.pdf
     
  5. JT19

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    That 27,293 number doesn't include AOA spots right? There are about 3,000 AOA spots, which would make for a total of a little over 30,000.
     
  6. jkdoctor

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    Yes. That is correct.

    Highlights Of The 2015 NRMP And AOA Match Results
    First year positions (PGY 1 positions) for entrants into GME reached an all-time high and the number continues to grow.
    This year, a record 27,293 first year positions were offered (See Note 3) by the NRMP (an increase of 615 over 2014) and an additional 3,118 first year positions were offered in the AOA-sponsored Match (an increase of 120 over 2014), for a total of 30,411 first-year positions in 2015. This represents an overall increase of 2.5 percent from 2014. Although this was the third year of the NRMP all-in policy, it is still possible that some of the NRMP growth reflects its continuing implementation.

    Entry level GME positions far surpass the number of US MD and DO graduates seeking a residency position.
    Despite a lot of rhetoric and fear that new US graduates are facing a lack of training slots, overall there were about 23,000 US MD and DO graduating seniors competing for the 30,411 first year positions in the two major matching programs. Some additional positions were available through the smaller urology and ophthalmology matching programs, but they are not entry-level slots.

    http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/05/01/results-from-the-2015-gme-matches-gme-positions-continue-to-grow/
     
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  7. Ibn Alnafis MD

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    As mentioned above, there were approximately 30k pgy1 positions between AOA and ACGME. Add to that another 1500 positions from the military, Urology and Ophthomogy matches. That's a grand total of near 32k positions.

    U.S. Med schools pump about 25k grads annually. This number will increase by another 2k over the near future due to the opening of some DO schools. Therefore, even if we witness no increase in the pgy1 spots, there will still be a surplus of about 4k positions in 2018, the year I graduate.

    Assuming US grads, MDs and DOs, are given the preference for filling residency spots, we would need to open up another 20-30 med schools to achieve a 1:1 ratio.
     
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  8. jkdoctor

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    Again not correct. Will you actually read the link I posted? Dr. Salsberg is an expert on this. The opthalmology positions ARE NOT PGY-1 and most of the urology positions are NOT PGY-1 either.
    There are less than 800 PGY-1 military positions
    http://www.militarygme.org/4.html

    THIS IS NOT HARD TO FIGURE OUT IF YOU DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
     
  9. Ibn Alnafis MD

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    You are correct, it turns out that ophthalmology and urology utilize internships offered in NRMP. That's about 750 less pgy1 positions than I originally hypothesized. Still, there is a significant surplus of positions, and it will take the opening of a lot more schools to fill all of the spots with American grads.
     
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  10. Mad Jack

    Mad Jack Critically Caring
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    There's roughly 27,000 matriculations last year with roughly 30,000 spots. That's some room, but not a ton. We'll probably lose some spots of subpar programs in the merger, and there's roughly 1% attrition and 1% GME growth per year. I don't think we'll hit an absolute situation of more grads than residencies until 2022 or later, depending on how many new schools open. Some foreign graduates will be giving some lower stat DOs a run for their money in the near future, however.
     
    #10 Mad Jack, Aug 1, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2015
  11. Dharma

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    :/
     
    #11 Dharma, Aug 1, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2015
  12. jkdoctor

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    I think this is an excellent post that sums everything up extremely well.
     
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  13. hallowmann

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    This. We definitely have at least until 2020, after that, unless something changes, it'll get tight.
     
  14. RustBeltOnc

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    This is an excellent summary. The other issue, less discussed on these and other boards is, what sort of work will await the residency grads? Hospital systems continue to consolidate and automate at a dizzying pace, and it is these new almagams that will do most of the hiring and placement of these folks. Will the systems place these people so they are well utilized?

    Stay tuned.
     
  15. Mad Jack

    Mad Jack Critically Caring
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    Hey, if we get fed up, we can always go back to practicing in groups. Or not accept insurance. Our whatever. There's always another way if things are bad enough.
     

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