US News 2021 Medical School Rankings Predictions

thesecretisme123

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Is there new data along with applicants/interviewed/accepted/matriculated too? Or is that an update later in the year? Friend is curious about her chances of getting off some WLs :S
 

TheDataKing

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Is there new data along with applicants/interviewed/accepted/matriculated too? Or is that an update later in the year? Friend is curious about her chances of getting off some WLs :S
that's out as well. I have my post-II A rate spreadsheet that is not up to date with the new data yet... I'll slowly add the new data as I peruse.
 
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can anyone tell me the research PD ranking, average GPA and MCAT for BU and UCI?
 
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All right boys and girls. You may take the following as the one and only true rankings. I did not make these rankings. I am simply a messenger, who received this ranking from a divine being.

1. Harvard
2. Stanford
3. Hopkins
4. UCSF
5. Penn
6. WashU
7. Columbia
8. UCLA
9. Duke
10. Michigan
11. Yale
12. UWash
13. NYU
14. Pitt
15. Cornell
16. Vanderbilt
17. Mayo
18. UChicago
19. Northwestern
20. UCSD
21. Emory
22. Baylor
23. Sinai
24. UNC
25. UTSW
 
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little_giant

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All right boys and girls. You may take the following as the one and only true rankings. I did not make these rankings. I am simply a messenger, who received this ranking from a divine being.

1. Harvard
2. Stanford
3. Hopkins
4. UCSF
5. Penn
6. WashU
7. Columbia
8. UCLA
9. Duke
10. Michigan
11. Yale
12. UWash
13. NYU
14. Pitt
15. Cornell
16. Vanderbilt
17. Mayo
18. UChicago
19. Northwestern
20. UCSD
21. Emory
22. Baylor
23. Sinai
24. UNC
25. UTSW
The school that accepted me is not on this list so this ranking is obviously fake news.
 
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billyjoe

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I know it's a moot point now that it's turning to p/f, but some of the Step 1 increases have me questioning the validity of any of these results....
Michigan: 231 --> 242
UCSF: 233 --> 239
I think these are self reported, but did Michigan REALLY have an 11 point increase in average? That seems crazy.
The Michigan increase is because of the curriculum change that lets students take STEP following 2nd year clinical rotations
 
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deleted688779

Wait, so does anyone have an idea why Mayo's PD-based ranking is always lower than their actual ranking, despite being still a clinical powerhouse and as far as I know a really respected name (arguably moreso than other institutions of similar PD scores)

they will always be US News number 1 regardless of what they teach

It was never about teaching doe. Undergrad, med school, clown school...it's never about teaching, it's about the power structure.
 
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catnip12

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So what does prestige feel like in a day to day sort of sense?
(Asking for myself, my friends, and my classmates)
 
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Wait, so does anyone have an idea why Mayo's PD-based ranking is always lower than their actual ranking, despite being still a clinical powerhouse and as far as I know a really respected name (arguably moreso than other institutions of similar PD scores)



It was never about teaching doe. Undergrad, med school, clown school...it's never about teaching, it's about the power structure.

Only a few years back Mayo's ranking was in the 20's. Still a respectable name, but nowhere near T10 level. It wasn't until recent years did their ranking skyrocket. PD-based ranking is far more stable than USNews, so it'll take quite some time before PD-scores catch up.

As for Mayo being a clinical powerhouse, you have to understand, medical education and clinical strength are separate as far as reputation goes. Example: Case Western isn't even T20 yet their hospital is arguably T3 in the same league as Mayo/MGH. Just because a med school's affiliated hospital is top tier doesn't necessarily mean their med school shares that reputation. (Another example: Yale's med school is top tier yet their clinical training is average).
 
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What I want to know is what NYU's new MCAT median is. This year is the first reported median to reflect their free-tuition announcement. Their median was already 522 before free tuition. Really curious as to whether it's increased even more. Can someone with access share this data (along with Penn, WashU, Yale and the other stat ******)?
 
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Does anyone have the STEP 2 averages (maybe just top 20 cuz I know it's a lot)? With STEP 2 being more important now due to STEP 1 being P/F, I'm just curious to see the numbers? Thanks!

I know it means nothing and STEP performance is based on individual ability but I'm just curious.

Tagging @TheDataKing because they seem to be a master at data.
 
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meronebib

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I don't understand how a school like UCSF can be ranked first by PDs but then not even be in the top five? Who actually uses the US News Rankings it seems like they randomly fluctuate for no reason except for the schools like Harvard which have so much money they will always be US News number 1 regardless of what they teach
There are flaws in every ranking system. Unfortunately, that includes PD rankings as well (which is something only gathered by US News). If I recall correctly, they send this survey out to many program directors and only a small amount actually reply.
 

TheDataKing

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What I want to know is what NYU's new MCAT median is. This year is the first reported median to reflect their free-tuition announcement. Their median was already 522 before free tuition. Really curious as to whether it's increased even more. Can someone with access share this data (along with Penn, WashU, Yale and the other stat ******)?
let me grab this data for y’all.

Does anyone have the STEP 2 averages (maybe just top 20 cuz I know it's a lot)? With STEP 2 being more important now due to STEP 1 being P/F, I'm just curious to see the numbers? Thanks!

I know it means nothing and STEP performance is based on individual ability but I'm just curious.

Tagging @TheDataKing because they seem to be a master at data.

I gotchu. Gimme a few min. Just woke up
 
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TheDataKing

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@Marr97 @meronebib @ItAintEasyBeingCheesy @CuriousMDStudent
SchoolStep 2Step 2 Pass RateMedian MCATMedian GPA
Harvard25299%5193.93
JHU24599%5213.94
UPenn25199%5223.90
NYU24798%5223.96
Stanford243100%5193.89
Columbia24497%5213.90
Mayo249100%5203.92
UCLA24497%5173.83
UCSF24498%5183.84
WashU25098%5213.90
Cornell25097%5183.88
Duke24598%5193.86
Washington24296%5103.68
Pitt24998%5173.80
Michigan25099%5163.81
Yale24895%5183.83
UChicago252100%5213.91
Northwestern25399%5203.91
Vandy250100%5203.84
Mt Sinai25099%5183.82
UCSD24996%5163.80
Baylor25198%5183.93
UNC24999%5123.87
Case Western24699%5183.81
Emory25199%5143.70
UT Southwestern25199%5163.86
Wisconsin24999%5123.74
 
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1234567890pumpkins

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@Marr97 @meronebib @ItAintEasyBeingCheesy @CuriousMDStudent
SchoolStep 2Step 2 Pass RateMedian MCATMedian GPA
Harvard25299%5193.93
JHU24599%5213.94
UPenn25199%5223.90
NYU24798%5223.96
Stanford243100%5193.89
Columbia24497%5213.90
Mayo249100%5203.92
UCLA24497%5173.83
UCSF24498%5183.84
WashU25098%5213.90
Cornell25097%5183.88
Duke24598%5193.86
Washington24296%5103.68
Pitt24998%5173.80
Michigan25099%5163.81
Yale24895%5183.83
UChicago252100%5213.91
Northwestern25399%5203.91
Vandy250100%5203.84
Mt Sinai25099%5183.82
UCSD24996%5163.80
Baylor25198%5183.93
UNC24999%5123.87
Case Western24699%5183.81
Emory25199%5143.70
UT Southwestern25199%5163.86
Wisconsin24999%5123.74
How did Yale drop from 522 to 518?
 
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@Marr97 @meronebib @ItAintEasyBeingCheesy @CuriousMDStudent
SchoolStep 2Step 2 Pass RateMedian MCATMedian GPA
Harvard25299%5193.93
JHU24599%5213.94
UPenn25199%5223.90
NYU24798%5223.96
Stanford243100%5193.89
Columbia24497%5213.90
Mayo249100%5203.92
UCLA24497%5173.83
UCSF24498%5183.84
WashU25098%5213.90
Cornell25097%5183.88
Duke24598%5193.86
Washington24296%5103.68
Pitt24998%5173.80
Michigan25099%5163.81
Yale24895%5183.83
UChicago252100%5213.91
Northwestern25399%5203.91
Vandy250100%5203.84
Mt Sinai25099%5183.82
UCSD24996%5163.80
Baylor25198%5183.93
UNC24999%5123.87
Case Western24699%5183.81
Emory25199%5143.70
UT Southwestern25199%5163.86
Wisconsin24999%5123.74

You're the GOAT!

Seems like MCAT scores have plateaud, which is a relief! 521 seems to be the new target to aim for.
 
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sophop

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There are flaws in every ranking system. Unfortunately, that includes PD rankings as well (which is something only gathered by US News). If I recall correctly, they send this survey out to many program directors and only a small amount actually reply.

This!

Based on what little USNWR tells us about their methodology, their PD rankings probably have very little semblance to what most PDs actually think - and definitely not what most actually care about (only 36% of PDs in NRMPs own survey indicated that med school reputation was a factor in ranking applicants and even they gave it only an importance rating of 3.8/5). While USNWR's admits its peer assessment rankings receive only 30% response rate, USNWR doesn't even publish the response rate for their PD survey - and what's worse, they only surveyed "a sample" of PDs. And, the last time I could find an actual response rate was 2011, and it was a ridiculous 17% to 19%. They have to average 3 years worth of ratings for each school, plus there doesn't seem to be any criteria for the minimum number of mentions a med school receives. And, it's not hard to guess why. While there are some larger residency programs, the average program size is fewer than 7 slots, so most PD simply have little opportunity to evaluate or be exposed to applicants from more than a dozen or so med schools at most.

Honestly, would any of you accept research like this? Sorry, I'm in a mid-step 1-cramming-pissy mood, but all you guys are much too smart to be obsessing over USNWR's click-bait (But thank you for an excuse to procrastinate!:)).
 
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1234567890pumpkins

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Completely agree. I think medical schools should stop legitimizing these rankings by bragging about their rankings in official materials. There’s no way to stop the tippy top from using it as a marketing tool, but most US medical schools are fantastic and you should go where you want to end up for residency and/or what culture and curriculum fits you best (considering cost as well of course). It’s crazy how much power some random magazine’s opinion matters to us just because they had the brilliant idea to boil down institutions all over the country that treat the sick, educate our future leaders and doctors, and overall just do groundbreaking science into a numerical score that can be ranked in descending order lol. Yale is no worse than WUSTL and HMS is no better than all of the schools it out ranks. They’re just different institutions in different parts of the country. Every school I interviewed at had its own strengths and weaknesses and it’s up to us applicants to make the best decision for ourselves and our career. I go to a random state school for undergrad that is not prestigious at all but I loved college. I think what matters most if you enjoy being where you are and how much debt you take on to go to medical school.

USnews ranking has a lot of resemblance to the oscars, i.e., only for entertainment.
 
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TheDataKing

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Completely agree. I think medical schools should stop legitimizing these rankings by bragging about their rankings in official materials. There’s no way to stop the tippy top from using it as a marketing tool, but most US medical schools are fantastic and you should go where you want to end up for residency and/or what culture and curriculum fits you best (considering cost as well of course). It’s crazy how much power some random magazine’s opinion matters to us just because they had the brilliant idea to boil down institutions all over the country that treat the sick, educate our future leaders and doctors, and overall just do groundbreaking science into a numerical score that can be ranked in descending order lol. Yale is no worse than WUSTL and HMS is no better than all of the schools it out ranks. They’re just different institutions in different parts of the country. Every school I interviewed at had its own strengths and weaknesses and it’s up to us applicants to make the best decision for ourselves and our career. I go to a random state school for undergrad that is not prestigious at all but I loved college. I think what matters most if you enjoy being where you are and how much debt you take on to go to medical school.
While speculation about this may yield interesting results, I'd like to remind people that USNWR rankings have faced very legitimate criticisms and this study (Gollehon NS, Stansfield RB, Gruppen LD, et al. Assessing Residents' Competency at Baseline: How Much Does the Medical School Matter?. J Grad Med Educ. 2017;9(5):616–621. doi:10.4300/JGME-D-17-00024.1) showed that "Our results suggest that residents' medical school of origin is weakly correlated with clinical competency as measured by a standardized OSCE."
Quoting myself here, but the methodology is flawed. I really don't understand why schools/premeds care so much about this but I do think it's interesting to see the data nonetheless :unsure:
 
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little_giant

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Doesn't AAMC have their own ranking of national med schools? I think they make the list private though and share it with adcoms only. I feel like that one may be the most legitimate
 
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deleted996731

Doesn't AAMC have their own ranking of national med schools? I think they make the list private though and share it with adcoms only. I feel like that one may be the most legitimate
Where are our fellow SDN hackers?
 
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TheDataKing

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Out of 33 factors, graduating from a highly regarded school was 23rd in importance with 50% of directors saying it mattered (3.8/5 in importance). From this we can garner that MANY other factors are of MUCH more importance than where you freaking go to med school ;) Afaik, there is no AAMC ranking of national med schools but I could be wrong.

1. USMLE Step 1/COMLEX Level 1 score (will change with step 1 p/f I'm guessing -> bump Step 2 up)
2.Letters of recommendation in the specialty
3. Medical Student Performance Evaluation (MSPE/Dean's Letter)
4.USMLE Step 2 CK/COMLEX Level 2 CE score
5. Personal Statement
6. Grades in required clerkships
7. Any failed attempt in USMLE/COMLEX
8. Class ranking/quartile
9. Perceived commitment to specialty
10. Personal prior knowledge of the applicant
11. Grades in clerkship in desired specialty
 
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little_giant

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Out of 33 factors, graduating from a highly regarded school was 23rd in importance with 50% of directors saying it mattered (3.8/5 in importance). From this we can garner that MANY other factors are of MUCH more importance than where you freaking go to med school ;) Afaik, there is no AAMC ranking of national med schools but I could be wrong.

1. USMLE Step 1/COMLEX Level 1 score (will change with step 1 p/f I'm guessing -> bump Step 2 up)
2.Letters of recommendation in the specialty
3. Medical Student Performance Evaluation (MSPE/Dean's Letter)
4.USMLE Step 2 CK/COMLEX Level 2 CE score
5. Personal Statement
6. Grades in required clerkships
7. Any failed attempt in USMLE/COMLEX
8. Class ranking/quartile
9. Perceived commitment to specialty
10. Personal prior knowledge of the applicant
11. Grades in clerkship in desired specialty

Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 3.59.21 PM.png
Here's where I got the idea that there was a private AAMC rank list but I can't find it...
 
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efle

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Just wanted to interject a few things:
  • Yes, step 1 swings can be huge. My school had a >10 point jump during my first years here (234 -> 245 -> 248). More evidence that step 1 does not reflect curriculum, it reflects student zeitgeist with how early and how hard they hit the flashcards/Qbanks/UFAPS. None of this matters to any of y'all lil premeds anyway, it's gonna be Pass/Fail.
  • Do NOT pay any attention to step 2 scores yet. For most people this isn't even visible on ERAS at the time of residency application and certainly hasn't been treated like step 1 in terms of prep. Ignore.
  • Makes little sense to combine research and primary care PD rankings. The people going for one are generally not interested whatsoever in the other. My school's one of the highest NIH funded and easily >90% of my class is interested in specialization and/or academia. Other schools have tons of primary care every year. I'd look at Research PD + Peer score as the metric if you want a loose idea of what med schools' applicants will punch above their weight when applying for highly competitive specialties or programs.
  • Minor changes in US News rank should not play a big role in your school selection. If you take on tons of loans, or choose a school ranked #5 instead of a better fit at #15, you are being D U M B
  • Really, really hope NYU can trigger a few other well endowed institutions to stop charging tuition. There is no way that these places with >5 billion need the tuition from their tiny med school classes.
 
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efle

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Oh and here are the historical US News rankings and a snapshot of what the PD ranking breakdown was a few years ago in 2017

 
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Just wanted to interject a few things:
  • Yes, step 1 swings can be huge. My school had a >10 point jump during my first years here (234 -> 245 -> 248). More evidence that step 1 does not reflect curriculum, it reflects student zeitgeist with how early and how hard they hit the flashcards/Qbanks/UFAPS. None of this matters to any of y'all lil premeds anyway, it's gonna be Pass/Fail.
  • Do NOT pay any attention to step 2 scores yet. For most people this isn't even visible on ERAS at the time of residency application and certainly hasn't been treated like step 1 in terms of prep. Ignore.
  • Makes little sense to combine research and primary care PD rankings. The people going for one are generally not interested whatsoever in the other. My school's one of the highest NIH funded and easily >90% of my class is interested in specialization and/or academia. Other schools have tons of primary care every year. I'd look at Research PD + Peer score as the metric if you want a loose idea of what med schools' applicants will punch above their weight when applying for highly competitive specialties or programs.
  • Minor changes in US News rank should not play a big role in your school selection. If you take on tons of loans, or choose a school ranked #5 instead of a better fit at #15, you are being D U M B
  • Really, really hope NYU can trigger a few other well endowed institutions to stop charging tuition. There is no way that these places with >5 billion need the tuition from their tiny med school classes.

Can’t stress how accurate this. It’s funny cause I was stressing over rankings for the longest and it played a factor in my decision of where to go to school. These days tho, the rankings and new rankings that come out serve nothing more than to say oh would you look at that we moved up/down x spots, then get right back to doing the million things that’s required if you as a med student no matter where you go. Trust that if you can’t get the residency of choice it’s not cause your school is #20vs #3
 
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Can’t stress how accurate this. It’s funny cause I was stressing over rankings for the longest and it played a factor in my decision of where to go to school. These days tho, the rankings and new rankings that come out serve nothing more than to say oh would you look at that we moved up/down x spots, then get right back to doing the million things that’s required of you as a med student no matter where you go. Trust that if you can’t get the residency of choice it’s not cause your school is #20vs #3
 
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deleted688779

Trust that if you can’t get the residency of choice it’s not cause your school is #20vs #3
Well...if it's #3 v #5, you're totally right. But if it's 3 v 20 or whatever, I am sure #3 has some pretty big perks and advantages, or have to worry less about certain things, or at the very least would find open doors "more open" if ya know what I mean.

I think a distinction should be made between "ranking" and "prestige" that premeds often get confused. Granted, they are oftentimes correlated.

Just my thoughts
 
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efle

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Well...if it's #3 v #5, you're totally right. But if it's 3 v 20 or whatever, I am sure #3 has some pretty big perks and advantages, or have to worry less about certain things, or at the very least would find open doors "more open" if ya know what I mean.

Just my thoughts
I honestly don't think the SDN perception of the top 5 as head and shoulders above the rest is true in the real world. Go look at some recent match lists from schools like Vandy or Northwestern. They've got all the research opportunities, all the home residency departments, etc. Taking more loans, moving far away, or giving up better "fit" to be somewhere like Penn instead is the wrong move imho. If you failed to match where you wanted from a school ranked in the teens, that's not the reason why.
 
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Well...if it's #3 v #5, you're totally right. But if it's 3 v 20 or whatever, I am sure #3 has some pretty big perks and advantages, or have to worry less about certain things, or at the very least would find open doors "more open" if ya know what I mean.

I think a distinction should be made between "ranking" and "prestige" that premeds often get confused. Granted, they are oftentimes correlated.

Just my thoughts

What I have found is that while med school rank matters (PD score) there is a point of diminishing return comparing the top 20s with each other. Though I’ll say maybe your argument applies if we’re talking Harvard vs mount Sinai or Something like that, but then again Harvard’s name is a wow factor compared to any top 20. A top 20’s (any top 20) biggest perk over another 20 is when having research or matching in the local area or home program of that school.

When it comes to the top 20s, you already have the clout, at that point you have to think about what you’re interested in and where you want to end up. You gunning for ortho in the east coast l? I personally would go to Columbia, Cornell or NYU vs something like UCLA, and with something like ortho where research is super important why give up an opportunity to do research at HSS, NYP or NYU (all top programs) and be local to the programs I want to end up in. But if I want a top plastics program in the west coast, no question than to go to UCLA or UCSF, or if I want a top urology program in the south, Vanderbilt is the place to go.

Now if you’re undecided about location of where you want to go to residency, or specialty, I would go to the med school with the most number of home top residencies like Harvard or Penn which I guess is a perk of the top 3 programs over the rest.
 
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1234567890pumpkins

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What I have found is that while med school rank matters (PD score) there is a point of diminishing return comparing the top 20s with each other. Though I’ll say maybe your argument applies if we’re talking Harvard vs mount Sinai or Something like that, but then again Harvard’s name is a wow factor compared to any top 20. A top 20’s (any top 20) biggest perk over another 20 is when having research or matching in the local area or home program of that school.

When it comes to the top 20s, you already have the clout, at that point you have to think about what you’re interested in and where you want to end up. You gunning for ortho in the east coast l? I personally would go to Columbia, Cornell or NYU vs something like UCLA, and with something like ortho where research is super important why give up an opportunity to do research at HSS, NYP or NYU (all top programs) and be local to the programs I want to end up in. But if I want a top plastics program in the west coast, no question than to go to UCLA or UCSF, or if I want a top urology program in the south, Vanderbilt is the place to go.

Now if you’re undecided about location of where you want to go to residency, or specialty, I would go to the med school with the most number of home top residencies like Harvard or Penn which I guess is a perk of the top 3 programs over the rest.
totally agreed. Except for the last point. In terms of number of top home residency programs, I did some quick counting of doximity lists (I know it's not the most accurate, but a close proxy) the top 3 schools that are way better than the rest of the pack are HMS, UCSF and Hopkins. Penn is not even near top 10.
 
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totally agreed. Except for the last point. In terms of number of top home residency programs, I did some quick counting of doximity lists (I know it's not the most accurate, but a close proxy) the top 3 schools that are way better than the rest of the pack are HMS, UCSF and Hopkins. Penn is not even near top 10.

Sure lol I would still say those are traditionally top5 programs, and overall the tippy top has more “top” name residencies.
 
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