Cold Front

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I post the USC first year cost of attendance every year, and the upcoming 2020-2021 academic year numbers are another record for the school. All numbers are based on both first year direct (tuition and fees) and indirect costs (budget for living, room and board, etc).

2012: $114k (4% increase)
2013: $123k (8%)
2014: $127k (3%)
2015: $130k (2%)
2016: $134k (3%)
2017: $137k (2%)
2018: $140k (2%)
2019: $149k (6%)
2020: $152k (2%) (COVID-19)
2021: ?????? (2-6%)

*Loan origination fees (1-4%) and daily compounding interest (7-8%) are not included.



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Feb 24, 2019
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I post the USC first year cost of attendance every year, and the upcoming 2020-2021 academic year numbers are another record for the school. All numbers are based on both first year direct (tuition and fees) and indirect costs (budget for living, room and board, etc).

2012: $114k (4% increase)
2013: $123k (8%)
2014: $127k (3%)
2015: $130k (2%)
2016: $134k (3%)
2017: $137k (2%)
2018: $140k (2%)
2019: $149k (6%)
2020: $152k (2%) (COVID-19)
2021: ?????? (2-6%)

*Loan origination fees (1-4%) and daily compounding interest (7-8%) are not included.



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This is next level crazy
 

lwergod

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it also sets precedence for other schools to follow suit with tuition increases as schools like USC/NYU keep pushing the upper boundaries.
 
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I post the USC first year cost of attendance every year, and the upcoming 2020-2021 academic year numbers are another record for the school. All numbers are based on both first year direct (tuition and fees) and indirect costs (budget for living, room and board, etc).

2012: $114k (4% increase)
2013: $123k (8%)
2014: $127k (3%)
2015: $130k (2%)
2016: $134k (3%)
2017: $137k (2%)
2018: $140k (2%)
2019: $149k (6%)
2020: $152k (2%) (COVID-19)
2021: ?????? (2-6%)

*Loan origination fees (1-4%) and daily compounding interest (7-8%) are not included.



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Wow, this means you're gonna have around $700k+ after taking into account accrued interest and fees, assuming you're taking out full loans.

If you want to pay it off over 10 years, that means you're gonna be paying 8k a month. That's $96k a year!

Take the average dentist, $150k pretax -> $110k post tax (probably less if you want to live in Cali) That leaves you ~$14k a year to live off of. That affords you a ramen noodle diet in a crappy 1 bedroom apartment in some crappy area. Won't be able to save for retirement, or a downpayment on a house, or a downpayment on a car. Netflix is considered a luxury at this point.

Even if your income rises to $200k -> ~140k post tax (again, probably less if you want to live in Cali, like most USC students probably do). That leaves you ~45k a year to live off of, which is not bad for the average American, but pretty low for a dentist who went to school for 8 years, achieved a doctorate degree that only 2% of Americans have. At this level, maybe you can afford to put guac on your chipotle, but that's still stretching it.

You're gonna be 36 years old at the youngest, finally paid off your student loans, $0 dollars saved for retirement. Now you finally start your life, congratulations!
 

BasicG

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Idk how anyone can go there knowing how much they're being screwed over. If USC is anything like Midwestern, the students think they're getting a bargain and think they will pay it off in no time. It's scary how some students will bury their heads in the sand
 

Cold Front

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Wow, this means you're gonna have around $700k+ after taking into account accrued interest and fees, assuming you're taking out full loans.

If you want to pay it off over 10 years, that means you're gonna be paying 8k a month. That's $96k a year!

Take the average dentist, $150k pretax -> $110k post tax (probably less if you want to live in Cali) That leaves you ~$14k a year to live off of. That affords you a ramen noodle diet in a crappy 1 bedroom apartment in some crappy area. Won't be able to save for retirement, or a downpayment on a house, or a downpayment on a car. Netflix is considered a luxury at this point.

Even if your income rises to $200k -> ~140k post tax (again, probably less if you want to live in Cali, like most USC students probably do). That leaves you ~45k a year to live off of, which is not bad for the average American, but pretty low for a dentist who went to school for 8 years, achieved a doctorate degree that only 2% of Americans have. At this level, maybe you can afford to put guac on your chipotle, but that's still stretching it.

You're gonna be 36 years old at the youngest, finally paid off your student loans, $0 dollars saved for retirement. Now you finally start your life, congratulations!
Right. It took about 10 yrs for USC first year COA to go from about $100k to $150k. Just the first year coa! At this rate, it will take less than that to go from $150k to $200k, maybe in 5-6 yrs.

When you raise tuition at 4% at $100k/yr or at $150k/yr, it’s completely 2 different problems.


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themuffinman11

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Idk how anyone can go there knowing how much they're being screwed over. If USC is anything like Midwestern, the students think they're getting a bargain and think they will pay it off in no time. It's scary how some students will bury their heads in the sand
the way the students there reasoned it to me during my interview was that they're getting a million dollar education for half off lol
 

BasicG

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the way the students there reasoned it to me during my interview was that they're getting a million dollar education for half off lol
Yeah at these expensive schools it's almost cult-like how the students are trying to get the interviewees to drink the kool aid. It's good to see this forum consistently reminding students to attend the cheapest school and keep their debt as low as possible
 

P7898

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I post the USC first year cost of attendance every year, and the upcoming 2020-2021 academic year numbers are another record for the school. All numbers are based on both first year direct (tuition and fees) and indirect costs (budget for living, room and board, etc).

2012: $114k (4% increase)
2013: $123k (8%)
2014: $127k (3%)
2015: $130k (2%)
2016: $134k (3%)
2017: $137k (2%)
2018: $140k (2%)
2019: $149k (6%)
2020: $152k (2%) (COVID-19)
2021: ?????? (2-6%)

*Loan origination fees (1-4%) and daily compounding interest (7-8%) are not included.



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Dude... one year is all of my 4 years combined including living... wtf
 
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P7898

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Mandatory 10 year freeze on how much can be loaned by the Department or Education is needed. If schools can’t make it financially, then let them close for good.
I always agreed with this. There is a $224k cap from the government US federal loans. Why not just keep it like this?
 
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Cold Front

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Mandatory 10 year freeze on how much can be loaned by the Department or Education is needed. If schools can’t make it financially, then let them close for good.
It’s too late. Any freeze now won’t help the current pre-dents and dental students. Besides, for congress to pass a legislation that would freeze and limit federal student loans would come with a lot of caveats.

New dentists account for about 3% of all dentists every year. In 5-10 years, we will see upto 1/3 of all dentists who graduated with $600-800k in student loans. It will continue to get worse from there if the government continues to watch from the sidelines.


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lwergod

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It’s too late. Any freeze now won’t help the current pre-dents and dental students. Besides, for congress to pass a legislation that would freeze and limit federal student loans would come with a lot of caveats.

New dentists account for about 3% of all dentists every year. In 5-10 years, we will see upto 1/3 of all dentists who graduated with $600-800k in student loans. It will continue to get worse from there if the government continues to watch from the sidelines.


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with all that being said, I still think the biggest threat to dentistry is the over-graduation of dentists each year.

over- saturation >>>>student debt > corporate
 
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Cold Front

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with all that being said, I still think the biggest threat to dentistry is the over-graduation of dentists each year.

over- saturation >>>>student deb > corporate
Yes. Right now, about 8/10 new grads start their career at a corporate office. Corporate have successfully changed the game at the career entry level/directly after school. They will soon focus on mid-career level and will probably do that with ease as student loans continue to increase. If corporations can keep most future dentists at 50-70% of their career, in my view, dentistry will be like the Pharmacy profession.


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We’re talking USC here! It’s totally worth the price. Would Aunt Becky have risked jail time trying to get her kids into the University of Iowa?! Yeah, didn’t think so.
The funny thing is, University of Iowa Dental School is not that cheap either, even for in-state students. Out-of-state tuition there is almost comparable to USC's tuition, just COL in Iowas is significantly cheaper than SoCal.
 

Cold Front

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I read somewhere that the med school applications are soaring this cycle in the US. In the first 3 days, there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their applications compared with the same period last year. The system initially crashed under the load but was fixed in a few hours. All 62,000 applicants successfully registered and were able to choose the time and place for their tests.

While dental school applications have been declining for the past 5 years or so. The switch from dental to medical school could finally be happening at a visible scale.


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BasicG

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I read somewhere that the med school applications are soaring this cycle in the US. In the first 3 days, there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their applications compared with the same period last year. The system initially crashed under the load but was fixed in a few hours. All 62,000 applicants successfully registered and were able to choose the time and place for their tests.

While dental school applications have been declining for the past 5 years or so. The switch from dental to medical school could finally be happening at a visible scale.


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That's a crazy jump for med schools. I wonder what's causing the decrease in dental apps. Do aspiring predents come in here to look for advice and nope outta here because of the debt/corp conversations and apply to med schools? Your Aspen thread has 14k views so there is definitely a lot of eyes seeing what's being posted on sdn
 
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lwergod

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I read somewhere that the med school applications are soaring this cycle in the US. In the first 3 days, there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their applications compared with the same period last year. The system initially crashed under the load but was fixed in a few hours. All 62,000 applicants successfully registered and were able to choose the time and place for their tests.

While dental school applications have been declining for the past 5 years or so. The switch from dental to medical school could finally be happening at a visible scale.


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does that include DO schools or just MD schools?
 
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That's a crazy jump for med schools. I wonder what's causing the decrease in dental apps. Do aspiring predents come in here to look for advice and nope outta here because of the debt/corp conversations and apply to med schools? Your Aspen thread has 14k views so there is definitely a lot of eyes seeing what's being posted on sdn
So according to ADEA applicants have declined from a high of 13,742 applicants in 2007 to 11,298 applicants in 2018.

In the 1980's something similar happened in dentistry.


"Then, between 1975 and 1989, the number of applicants to dental school plummeted from 15,734 to 4,996, a 68.2 percent decrease. This decline was due to deteriorating economic conditions and a growing perception that dentistry offered limited career opportunities."

So I'm guessing the slow decline in applicants now is probably due to:
1. Rising education costs for Dental school
2. Oversaturation of dentists
3. Stagnating salaries (the buying power of a dentists salary is declining every year because it's not keeping up with inflation)
 
Feb 24, 2019
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So according to ADEA applicants have declined from a high of 13,742 applicants in 2007 to 11,298 applicants in 2018.

In the 1980's something similar happened in dentistry.


"Then, between 1975 and 1989, the number of applicants to dental school plummeted from 15,734 to 4,996, a 68.2 percent decrease. This decline was due to deteriorating economic conditions and a growing perception that dentistry offered limited career opportunities."

So I'm guessing the slow decline in applicants now is probably due to:
1. Rising education costs for Dental school
2. Oversaturation of dentists
3. Stagnating salaries (the buying power of a dentists salary is declining every year because it's not keeping up with inflation)
Yeah, there will be a steady drop in number of applicants over the next few years-long overdue. Hopefully this will shut down some of the worse dental schools that are preying on students and charging obscene amounts.
 
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Cold Front

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That's a crazy jump for med schools. I wonder what's causing the decrease in dental apps. Do aspiring predents come in here to look for advice and nope outta here because of the debt/corp conversations and apply to med schools? Your Aspen thread has 14k views so there is definitely a lot of eyes seeing what's being posted on sdn
The decline in dental apps is correlated with the increasing tuition and stagnant income in dentistry. I think the really smart pre-dental applicants are increasingly looking at medicine as a better alternative field every year. We shouldn’t lump together all pre-dents as a group who are 100% committed to applying to dental school. Many pre-pharmacy and pre-med students historically use to switch to dentistry, but I think they too are growing to be reluctant about dentistry. The word is also slowing going out about the financial issues with dentistry, so that will naturally translate to fewer applicants every year. The ADA never gives a reason why applicant numbers are going down, but the reason for the downward trend is obvious and speaks for itself.

The Aspen thread is probably being viewed a lot by Aspen itself. lol


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Yeah, there will be a steady drop in number of applicants over the next few years-long overdue. Hopefully this will shut down some of the worse dental schools that are preying on students and charging obscene amounts.
Doubt it. All we will see is incoming average GPAs and DAT scores plummet as schools will just try to fill the chairs. All schools need is 100 kids to sign on the dotted line and they’re set.
 

fermi555

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Doubt it. All we will see is incoming average GPAs and DAT scores plummet as schools will just try to fill the chairs. All schools need is 100 kids to sign on the dotted line and they’re set.
I think we're likely a decade or two away from seeing schools closing. The toll will be paid as schools will close down, but it's going to take a while to get there for the reason you stated. NYU dental received 3,400 applications this year. While I'm sure a fair number of those are international, that's still an insane number of applications for a school that costs 700k post interest.
 

Cold Front

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I think we're likely a decade or two away from seeing schools closing. The toll will be paid as schools will close down, but it's going to take a while to get there for the reason you stated. NYU dental received 3,400 applications this year. While I'm sure a fair number of those are international, that's still an insane number of applications for a school that costs 700k post interest.
A lot of foreign applicants are applying not just for the US dental degree, but also the opportunity to get a green card shortly after. Majority of those applicants come from third world countries, and this is an opportunity for their spouse and kids to have the American life. The other option is an EB-5 visa (which are for people who are willing to make an $1M+ investment in the US in exchange for a green card) and is very limited and popular among rich Indians. So applying to NYU dental school for $700k and taking out that cost in student loans is way cheaper and easier than the extremely expensive and competitive EB-5 visa. Dental schools like NYU understand and exploit that demand and target Indian international dentists more than any other country.


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Apr 21, 2019
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I think we're likely a decade or two away from seeing schools closing. The toll will be paid as schools will close down, but it's going to take a while to get there for the reason you stated. NYU dental received 3,400 applications this year. While I'm sure a fair number of those are international, that's still an insane number of applications for a school that costs 700k post interest.
Yeah if we learned anything from 1980, it's that we are going to need a very steep decline in applicants to warrant school closures. That means we likely need to have fewer than 7000 applicants for schools to start closing. Until then, schools will probably just start shrinking their class sizes.

I suppose it's possible that if the government puts a cap on student loans, some expensive schools like NYU/USC/Midwestern could take a big hit. But while American students won't be able to attend, there's no shortage of international students with deep pockets lining up.

Schools are gonna stay open as long as they are profitable. And you better believe they will squeeze every penny possible before closing
 

lwergod

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does the ADA have any regulatory capability in controlling the # of graduates per year?
 

lwergod

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I think we're likely a decade or two away from seeing schools closing. The toll will be paid as schools will close down, but it's going to take a while to get there for the reason you stated. NYU dental received 3,400 applications this year. While I'm sure a fair number of those are international, that's still an insane number of applications for a school that costs 700k post interest.
I give it less than one decade.
 
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Cold Front

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I give it less than one decade.
In my estimation, the best indicator is when we see the tuition and fees for some schools edge closer to $200k first year COA. 5-10% of dental schools have already passed the $150k first year threshold, many more will do so in the next 2-3 years. Schools like Midwest, USC, NYU, and the new private schools are leading the pack - the Rolex schools (sarcasm!). So if these programs raise their 1st yr tuition and fees 3-5% each year for the next 5-6 years, we will see the first dental school in the US to charge $200k/yr (with the 7-8% interest). To me, that would be the tipping point and a psychological red line crossed for most applicants. That will draw a significant attention (through media, blogs, youtube, etc) at levels we haven’t seen before to the public - specially to the families and friends of the pre-dents, and it will eventually effect the enrollment numbers at those expensive schools first.

Then again, we did have the Orthodontist with $1M+ in student loans featured in New York Times and other national papers last year, and that didn’t have much effect on D1 enrollment at any school. He might have been seen as an outlier or irresponsible on his part - and to be fair, to some degree it was. But when hundreds of dentists graduate with about $1M in student loans, that story will end up on CBS 60 minutes, TikTok and whatever other high channel of information will be, and that story will be synonymous with dentistry and dentists moving forward. It will be a conversation starter for sure, even among the most random of people.


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Feb 24, 2019
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In my estimation, the best indicator is when we see the tuition and fees for some schools edge closer to $200k first year COA. 5-10% of dental schools have already passed the $150k first year threshold, many more will do so in the next 2-3 years. Schools like Midwest, USC, NYU, and the new private schools are leading the pack - the Rolex schools (sarcasm!). So if these programs raise their 1st yr tuition and fees 3-5% each year for the next 5-6 years, we will see the first dental school in the US to charge $200k/yr (with the 7-8% interest). To me, that would be the tipping point and a psychological red line crossed for most applicants. That will draw a significant attention (through media, blogs, youtube, etc) at levels we haven’t seen before to the public - specially to the families and friends of the pre-dents, and it will eventually effect the enrollment numbers at those expensive schools first.

Then again, we did have the Orthodontist with $1M+ in student loans featured in New York Times and other national papers last year, and that didn’t have much effect on D1 enrollment at any school. He might have been seen as an outlier or irresponsible on his part - and to be fair, to some degree it was. But when hundreds of dentists graduate with about $1M in student loans, that story will end up on CBS 60 minutes, TikTok and whatever other high channel of information will be, and that story will be synonymous with dentistry and dentists moving forward. It will be a conversation starter for sure, even among the most random of people.


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At that point, with $1mlln in loans out of dental school you are effectively a slave to a dental corporation-there is no way out, your life is over.
 

Cold Front

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At that point, with $1mlln in loans out of dental school you are effectively a slave to a dental corporation-there is no way out, your life is over.
I think those who get caught in the high debt web will choose to pay the monthly minimum payments possible and save for the future high tax bomb forgiveness down the road/after 20yrs. Which will also be a disastrous financial position, to cut a $1M check to the IRS (under the current law). I wouldn’t be surprised if schools advertise that to the applicants at some point.
 
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I’m always surprised how few conversations are had on student loan debt in the predent forums. They’re too preoccupied with trying to get in. Paying for it is just an afterthought for most.

Big Hoss
100%. Everyone I know personally is guilty of this. Myself included. Every single adult you ever meet says dentistry is a great lucrative career, everyone around you is desperate to get in because its competitive. All your spare hours are dedicated to study that you couldnt even fathom that you're working so hard down the wrong path.

I do wonder if the jump in medicine applications is a sign of tough economic times... when the economy is tanking it's a great time to be studying. Maybe people are thinking along those lines. I'd be interested to know the numbers of dental school applications this year... I hope they're down but I wouldnt be surprised if they spiked too
 

LaughingGas

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I think those who get caught in the high debt web will choose to pay the monthly minimum payments possible and save for the future high tax bomb forgiveness down the road/after 20yrs. Which will also be a disastrous financial position, to cut a $1M check to the IRS (under the current law). I wouldn’t be surprised if schools advertise that to the applicants at some point.
At 1 million, even repay is not really an option. Using calculator from student loan planner , just the tax bomb is roughly 671k. WTH...
 
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I’m always surprised how few conversations are had on student loan debt in the predent forums. They’re too preoccupied with trying to get in. Paying for it is just an afterthought for most.

Big Hoss

US News out here still ranking dentistry as the #2 job in the US in 2020.

Do a Ctrl + F and type in "debt" or "loan" ....... Yeah I didn't get any hits either. Funny how that works isn't it
 

Cold Front

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100%. Everyone I know personally is guilty of this. Myself included. Every single adult you ever meet says dentistry is a great lucrative career, everyone around you is desperate to get in because its competitive. All your spare hours are dedicated to study that you couldnt even fathom that you're working so hard down the wrong path.

I do wonder if the jump in medicine applications is a sign of tough economic times... when the economy is tanking it's a great time to be studying. Maybe people are thinking along those lines. I'd be interested to know the numbers of dental school applications this year... I hope they're down but I wouldnt be surprised if they spiked too
I think the overall dynamics of the US education system is slowly changing at all levels, to something different and have not been seen before.

College enrollment declined by 2 million students in the past decade. Majority of the declines were from men. That’s all good for more women in colleges and in professional schools, but females collectively carry about $1T of the outstanding $1.6T in student loans. In dentistry, most new grads are females, most new faculties that teach at dental schools are females, and so on. Covid19 will just accelerate us towards all future trends. We could see drop in dental applications and enrollment in dental school as early as this new cycle.

I personally know pre-dents getting interviews without DAT scores, thanks to covid closing the testing centers. The odds of getting into a dental program went from 3:1 odds to 1:1 odds within a decade. With more new programs and declining applicant pool, almost everyone who applies will get in somewhere. That’s good news for a pre-dent, but bad news for those who get into expensive schools.

Ironically, covid crisis is triggering a tsunami of bankruptcies in this economy, and all of the sudden, there is a shortage of bankruptcy attorneys. Law schools were once a low enrollment business, and I can see the fortunes have changed for their new grad lawyers who can and will be hired by desperate bankruptcy firms for 2-3x of their regular salaries. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about dentistry.


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Apr 21, 2019
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I personally know pre-dents getting interviews without DAT scores, thanks to covid closing the testing centers.
I think they're re-opening the testing centers now because the DAT is considered an essential exam. I would be genuinely surprised if any pre-dents got accepted without a DAT score. I'm sure there are still enough applicants with DAT scores that applicants without DAT scores will just get booted to the next application cycle.

Also I think your pre-dent mentee's are lying to you, the application cycle hasn't officially opened yet. If they're receiving interviews already, ask them to pass me the joint haha

That being said I agree. The acceptance rate to D school went from ~35% back in '07 to now ~55%, and it will probably climb back up to ~70%+ by 2025 or 2030 (it was around 70% in 2000 I think). Fewer applicants -> more schools opening = more seats = higher acceptance rate
 

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This is insane.

Perhaps wouldn't be a death knell to someone's financial future if corporates hadn't proliferated but if someone pays this and then takes a chain job in SoCal I don't see how they can ever live a comfortable lifestyle.

My total med school debt is less than a single year here. I'm truly floored that people are paying this. I knew dental school debt was bad but this... I don't see how anyone could justify

Poor, naive bastards.
 

ndentista

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I think those who get caught in the high debt web will choose to pay the monthly minimum payments possible and save for the future high tax bomb forgiveness down the road/after 20yrs. Which will also be a disastrous financial position, to cut a $1M check to the IRS (under the current law). I wouldn’t be surprised if schools advertise that to the applicants at some point.
Funnily enough, this year at my USC interview during the financial aid presentation, they did heavily suggest and advertise the high tax bomb as the best way to tackle the insanely high tuition & fees. As soon as she mentioned a multi-hundred thousand dollar tax bomb after twenty years of basically living like a student and paying back loans, I zoned out and daydreamed about my upcoming Texas school interview. Lol
 

charlestweed

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Dentist
Funnily enough, this year at my USC interview during the financial aid presentation, they did heavily suggest and advertise the high tax bomb as the best way to tackle the insanely high tuition & fees. As soon as she mentioned a multi-hundred thousand dollar tax bomb after twenty years of basically living like a student and paying back loans, I zoned out and daydreamed about my upcoming Texas school interview. Lol
You won't live like a poor student with your dentist's income if you sign up for one of these government repayment programs because your monthly payment amount will be very small (less than the amount of interest). Hopefully with more money available for you to spend every month, you invest wisely (ie starting a small low overhead practice, buy a couple of investment properties etc). And hopefully, your investments will help you get out of that REPAYE program and you can pay off your entire student loan sooner than 20 years. Think of this as a form of loan deferral or forbearance program that helps you keep more of your hard earned money during the first couple of years after graduation so you can invest (to grow your income)...... instead of buying a nice car.

You will live like a poor student if you pay back your loans the traditional way. If you don't want to set up an office and don't know what to invest your money on, then it's better to discipline yourself to put a large % of your income toward paying down the student loan debt and continue to live like a poor student for 3-4 years after graduation. If you finish school at 26, you should be able to cut the student loans in half when you are 29-30 yo. With 1/2 of your loan paid off....or $200-250k loan balance, you no longer have to live like a poor student.
 
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cluelessdr

2+ Year Member
Aug 10, 2017
222
39
Status
Pre-Dental, Pre-Medical, Pre-Optometry, Pre-Pharmacy
the other option people say is to go be a nurse or go into tech, but the problem with nursing is that you dont have the same autonomy and you dont have the potential to earn a higher income. what am i missing here? am i a naive predent? is 250k debt still worth it? my family is willing to pay 40k a year i pick up the 60k, but even then that debt amount scares me
 
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