In my estimation, the best indicator is when we see the tuition and fees for some schools edge closer to $200k first year COA. 5-10% of dental schools have already passed the $150k first year threshold, many more will do so in the next 2-3 years. Schools like Midwest, USC, NYU, and the new private schools are leading the pack - the Rolex schools (sarcasm!). So if these programs raise their 1st yr tuition and fees 3-5% each year for the next 5-6 years, we will see the first dental school in the US to charge $200k/yr (with the 7-8% interest). To me, that would be the tipping point and a psychological red line crossed for most applicants. That will draw a significant attention (through media, blogs, youtube, etc) at levels we haven’t seen before to the public - specially to the families and friends of the pre-dents, and it will eventually effect the enrollment numbers at those expensive schools first.
Then again, we did have the Orthodontist with $1M+ in student loans featured in New York Times and other national papers last year, and that didn’t have much effect on D1 enrollment at any school. He might have been seen as an outlier or irresponsible on his part - and to be fair, to some degree it was. But when hundreds of dentists graduate with about $1M in student loans, that story will end up on CBS 60 minutes, TikTok and whatever other high channel of information will be, and that story will be synonymous with dentistry and dentists moving forward. It will be a conversation starter for sure, even among the most random of people.
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