You are right. I am purely speculating based on prior GMOs that I know. However, you said that they strive to put their best applicants into their own residencies. According to the point system, wouldn't the best applicants be GMOs and therefore be placed into military residencies? While it is true that civilian deferred residencies do not extend your commitment, military residencies (post-GMO) along with civilian sponsored residencies will. Believe me, I fully understand this concept in detail and got confirmation from the big wigs in charge of the process. This is exactly why I came to the decision that I am just going to finish up my military career as a GMO. I was told if I applied I would be more likely to get a military residency than civilian deferred (which are usually given to medical students, unless there are limited spots). It's OK if you want to disagree with me because I don't have any studies to point to. I only have MY prior experience in dealing with these matters and GMO/FS friends of mine that have already gone through/going through the process.
While you may view me and others as cynical, I view myself as a realist. I can't even begin to tell you the shock I was in during my 4th year when I was told I did not get a residency position and would have to interrupt my medical education to do an operational tour. I just want all the 4th year medical students to realize that doing a GMO tour prior to entering residency is a very real possibility (and more likely than some people think).
3 points. First, I couldn't agree more that people MUST know about the possibility of a GMO tour. For Navy applicants, there are many specialties for which one simply cannot hope to compete without having done one (less so in the other services, but the only spots med studs can compete for are either PGY-1 only or full deferments/ftos, which are hard to come by). In a sense, Navy-wise, this levels the playing field, so that instead of all the examples above about the GMO dirtbag competing with the stellar med stud, its really the GMO dirtbag competing with the stellar med stud who also had a successful GMO tour.
Second, the specialty leaders are the ones who make the selections, not the PDs and their primary focus is on the overall health of their specialty. So, they want to fill their inservice slots, but they also want to train every good person they can. If you want IM, for example, there are so many inservice slots, that you aren't likely to get outservice training (seen it, just not likely), whereas, if you want urology, about half the total trainees are on deferments/ftos, etc. So, yes, they want good people for their programs, but they also want good people in general.
Third, you comment that the "best" applicants are GMO's because they have the most points. I can only comment on one specialty leader's view on this but he absolutely does not believe that. They have the most points because the system favors people who have done their time, not because they would make the best specialist. That doesn't mean he was always able to avoid taking those people. In my subspecialty, there are always enough highly-qualified applicants with lots of points that they still get folks they want.