Jan 4, 2013
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http://news.vin.com/VINNews.aspx?articleId=25859

Does anyone have any thoughts? I find this concerning but am still trying to figure it all out.

Class sizes are increasing at many schools, the economy isn't where it was when the AAVMC was warning about future shortfalls, and in SA medicine, the number of clients per vet is decreasing (on average). Even in FA med and public health, people are concerned that jobs are not as available as previously thought. Our tuition has increased and salaries have been pretty stagnant. The AAVMC just accredited Ross, what will this do to graduate's employment statistics? What impact would 400-500 new graduates a year from 5 new schools have? Is it part of their job to "protect" the veterinary job market?

The article is talking about 5 school in various stages of planning--I'd guess one or two won't even be built for 10-15 years if ever. 3 are talking about using the distributive model that Western uses, UNAM in Mexico uses Banfield, and I think the potential school in Buffalo would include a teaching hospital. I can't say I know a whole lot about this but it seems like it couldn't work without a large population base (such as southern California for Western...). Any Western students or grads have any opinions?

Are there any recent grads who can comment on the current job market?
 
Feb 6, 2012
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Is it part of their job to "protect" the veterinary job market?
The job of universities and professional associations is to expand income. Universities will continue to expand as long as their is demand for the course. Considering many vet students don't really care about income it is hard to predict what level of unemployment would be required for a decrease in demand for veterinary courses. But in Australia veterinary graduate unemployment has hit 19% due to a 50% rise in the number of veterinary students. Bums are still filling seats in the veterinary faculties...
 

Lissarae06

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The job of universities and professional associations is to expand income. Universities will continue to expand as long as their is demand for the course. Considering many vet students don't really care about income it is hard to predict what level of unemployment would be required for a decrease in demand for veterinary courses. But in Australia veterinary graduate unemployment has hit 19% due to a 50% rise in the number of veterinary students. Bums are still filling seats in the veterinary faculties...
Um, I'm pretty sure all of us care about income. I mean I want to make a comfortable living. Do I care about making as much as a human doctor? No, but I still want to make money.
 

CalliopeDVM

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Um, I'm pretty sure all of us care about income. I mean I want to make a comfortable living. Do I care about making as much as a human doctor? No, but I still want to make money.
I think the idea about vet students not caring much about income comes from the rather sad and shocking reality that many US vet students graduate to jobs that only earn them a third or less per year as much their debt load when they leave university. It's not really the income amount (how much a vet earns per year), but the net amount after that US new grad makes his/her loan payment that month. The debt-to-income ratio is huge, so your living wage (after taxes and payment on your loans) could be $2500 per month. I think the poster was saying that if earning a comfortable income was really important, students would pursue a career that offers them a smaller debt-to-income ratio.
 

Minnerbelle

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I wonder how high tuition would have to get before enough people choose not to go to vet school such that there aren't enough applicants to fill seats (provided of course that everyone can get federal loans up to the cost of attendance).
 
Mar 17, 2011
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TBH I didn't reply to this thread when I first saw it because I thought the OP was trolling.
Of the schools mentioned in the article- Midwestern in AZ, LMU in Harrogate, UNAM in Mexico, the Kaleida proposal in Buffalo- Bufffalo and Midwestern will have teaching hospitals; UNAM is a long established school with a newly accredited program and a new teaching hospital. LMU will use a distributive model.
The distributive model is how many MDs are educated btw. They get their clinical training in community hospitals. It's not a new model, it's just new to vet med.
As far as contributing to the total supply of grads...
The proposed 2+2 programs in AZ, Utah and Alaska all replace current WICHE contract seats and send their students to established US vet school teaching hospitals for clinical year.
The Caribbean school grads have always been primarily US citizens who went there and returned to the US after graduation.
UNAM doesn't seem to be a factor. Not a single student took the NAVLE in Mexico last year. Not. One. Could some have taken the NAVLE in the US, sure- but that may indicate those were US students going there and coming back here, same as the CB grads. And I checked the TX stats, no huge increase in test takers there, which would be the most logical place...
I lay a lot of what I know out in the presentation you see if you go here justvetdata.com
As far as debt to income ratio....
Average debt is $151,000. Average starting salary is $42,000. Everybody will think that's a typo or Im mistaken because it's supposed to be $65,000, right?
The $65,000 is the average starting salary for grads who got a private practice job.
Fewer than half of grads got a job, much less a good one.
More than half of all grads ended up in an internship.
If we are going to quote $151,000 as the debt level- which is the average of all grads with debt- then we need to quote as income $42,000- which is the average of all grads with jobs. I should say 'jobs' because I don't count internships as jobs. Yes, technically they are jobs because they do pay money but they don't pay much and they only last a year and then what? Only about 30% go on to residency and board certification. For the rest it's just a year of crappy, poorly paid work experience.

Bottom line- go to vet school if you can graduate with as little debt as possible. Be prepared to do crappy work for low pay and live like a pauper for a decade or so. Then most of you can look forward to a lower middle class standard of living either in practice, teaching or government. A few of you- mostly male- can look forward after another ten or fifteen (maybe twenty) years to a pretty nice standard of living as practice owners, tenured faculty or upper level management or administration.
 
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Jan 4, 2013
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I am aware that the Caribbean schools are mostly American students that return to the US for jobs. I'm just wondering how much their new status as accredited institutions will affect their enrollment numbers, esp considering Ross, at least, has 3 classes a year. I am also aware that UNAM is currently not a factor but I'm sure that will change at some point. I'm not worried so much about unemployment when I graduate as much as unemployment in the profession 10-30 years down the line.

Australia, as an example, currently has an unemployment rate of 5.4%. By one estimate, veterinarians in Australia have a 19% unemployment rate. I'm sure there are any number of factors but will anyone really say that 7 vet schools for 22 million people isn't part of the problem?

http://ausvetnet.wordpress.com/category/oversupply-wages-unemployment/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-0813.2012.news_v90_i4.x/abstract
 
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Camelidcrazy

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As far as contributing to the total supply of grads...
The proposed 2+2 programs in AZ, Utah and Alaska all replace current WICHE contract seats and send their students to established US vet school teaching hospitals for clinical year.
WSU added ~30 seats for the USU program. I only mention because we are all very concerned how our clinical year will work out with the added bodies. For whatever it's worth.
 
Mar 17, 2011
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WSU added ~30 seats for the USU program. I only mention because we are all very concerned how our clinical year will work out with the added bodies. For whatever it's worth.
I'd ask your school admin point blank how this affects the number of hours you spend in direct contact with senior faculty, and the numbers of cases on which you will be primary decision maker.

friendofdobby, I'd be a lot more worried about unemployment starting two years from now- isn't that when you are graduating? I'd point out new grad employment in the US is already abysmal. If we didn't add another seat it'd still be bad.

Here's my attempt to show the employment data from the JAVMA senior survey that's done every year.
http://www.justvetdata.com/javma_employment_data
I'd point out this survey is
-done before anybody is actually working or getting paid
-subject to self reporting error (where people report wrong) AND self-reporting bias (where only some people choose to report)
-ONLY asks US seniors, which is only about 75% of the total number entering the market

Based on this info, only about 25% of the total number of new grads every year get a job in private practice. I can tell you from personal experience that there are a lot of vets who've been out for years that can't find jobs either.
 

bbeventer

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I think the AVMA needs to reverse its position on handing out accreditation to programs without a teaching hospital, that would sure up this crisis. :rolleyes:
 
Feb 6, 2012
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Average debt is $151,000. Average starting salary is $42,000. Everybody will think that's a typo or Im mistaken because it's supposed to be $65,000, right?
The $65,000 is the average starting salary for grads who got a private practice job.
More than half of all grads ended up in an internship.
If we are going to quote $151,000 as the debt level- which is the average of all grads with debt- then we need to quote as income $42,000- which is the average of all grads with jobs. I should say 'jobs' because I don't count internships as jobs. Yes, technically they are jobs because they do pay money but they don't pay much and they only last a year and then what? Only about 30% go on to residency and board certification. For the rest it's just a year of crappy, poorly paid work experience.
+1
There is limited difference between a graduate job and a graduate intern job. Both have supervision. The use of 'intern' seems to just allow a lower level of pay without necessarily providing better learning. And if you want to attend CE courses the higher pay probably allows better learning. Most interns were in private practice/not universities. Surely for many that got intern places it was not their first choice.
 
Mar 17, 2011
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I think I've posted this in another thread, but here it is again- the breakdown of the 2012 JAVMA senior survey telling how many people graduated, how many looked for work, how many had jobs, how many took an internship...

2012 JAVMA Senior Survey summary

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association
October 1, 2012, Vol. 241, No. 7, Pages 890-894 doi: 10.2460/javma.241.7.890
Employment, starting salaries, and educational indebtedness of year-2012 graduates of US veterinary medical colleges Allison J. Shepherd, MBA; Laura Pikel, BS

Survey offered to 2686 (entire US CVM senior population).
2502 responded.
2501 provided debt data.
2410 looked for paying work.
1272 provided salary data.

43 took a job in public practice.
547 got a job in private practice, down 17% from 2011
-49 in food animal, down 14%
-112 in mixed, down 20.6%
-3 in equine, down 91.9%
-362 in companion animal, down 14%
727 went to advanced education (internship/residency/dual degree), down 5.7% from 2011
1093 were at odd ends.

590/2410 makes an effective employment rate of 24.5%

89.2% (2232) had debt.
92% of debt was from vet school.
Mean debt was $151,162, up 6.4% from 2011
22% had debt > $200,000

$65,998 was the mean starting salary in private practice, down 1.0% from 2011
$29,628 for those in advanced education; up 1.8% from 2011


For context, 4729 took the NAVLE, 3879 passed
4118 takers and 3653 passers were from accredited schools
as there are 2686 US seniors, 4118-2686= 1432 foreign accredited enrollment
 

bbeventer

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I think I've posted this in another thread, but here it is again- the breakdown of the 2012 JAVMA senior survey telling how many people graduated, how many looked for work, how many had jobs, how many took an internship...

2012 JAVMA Senior Survey summary

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association
October 1, 2012, Vol. 241, No. 7, Pages 890-894 doi: 10.2460/javma.241.7.890
Employment, starting salaries, and educational indebtedness of year-2012 graduates of US veterinary medical colleges Allison J. Shepherd, MBA; Laura Pikel, BS

Survey offered to 2686 (entire US CVM senior population).
2502 responded.
2501 provided debt data.
2410 looked for paying work.
1272 provided salary data.

43 took a job in public practice.
547 got a job in private practice, down 17% from 2011
-49 in food animal, down 14%
-112 in mixed, down 20.6%
-3 in equine, down 91.9%
-362 in companion animal, down 14%
727 went to advanced education (internship/residency/dual degree), down 5.7% from 2011
1093 were at odd ends.

590/2410 makes an effective employment rate of 24.5%

89.2% (2232) had debt.
92% of debt was from vet school.
Mean debt was $151,162, up 6.4% from 2011
22% had debt > $200,000

$65,998 was the mean starting salary in private practice, down 1.0% from 2011
$29,628 for those in advanced education; up 1.8% from 2011


For context, 4729 took the NAVLE, 3879 passed
4118 takers and 3653 passers were from accredited schools
as there are 2686 US seniors, 4118-2686= 1432 foreign accredited enrollment
That is a very interesting and somewhat startling breakdown. I wish there was an additional breakdown of the reason behind why some seniors did not have after academia plans (ie. unemployed, traveling world, etc.)
 
Mar 17, 2011
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Hope this is cool. If not, I apologize. As this thread is concerned with unemployment, I wanted to say I started another thread asking for unemployed new and recent grads willing to be interviewed by a nationally known journalist for a piece on veterinary new grad unemployment. I've noticed this thread is getting a lot of views- if anyone checking on this thread fit that description I'd appreciate it if you'd check out the other thread.
Again, I hope this doesn't somehow violate any rules- if it does someone please let me know. Thanks.
 

RadRadTerp

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I wonder how high tuition would have to get before enough people choose not to go to vet school such that there aren't enough applicants to fill seats (provided of course that everyone can get federal loans up to the cost of attendance).
I think the other important question is how many new seats have to be created and how many unemployed graduates do there have to be before people stop applying in large numbers to veterinary school? There are a lot of people who want to go to vet school no matter what, but we might be creating too much competition for jobs and I'm afraid that the future of vet school is going to make the experience even more competitive.

Imagine if an even larger proportion of students are applying for internships. That's only going to worsen grade-grubbing and gunning during the first 4 years. Heck, my school added 20-some odd spots to the class of 2016 and 2017 is going to be the same. How are employers going to deal when they start getting double or triple the number of applicants for private practice positions? Will that inevitably mean that internships are going to become more of a "requirement"? I certainly don't want to go for an internship after the years I put into veterinary clinics and animal care prior to vet school. My 4th year roommate last year got a job right out of school and I intend to try to do the same since I feel like I can find a good first job/mentorship through my networking, but it's not a guarantee and it will be even harder for those who have less work experience.
 

bbeventer

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I think the other important question is how many new seats have to be created and how many unemployed graduates do there have to be before people stop applying in large numbers to veterinary school? There are a lot of people who want to go to vet school no matter what, but we might be creating too much competition for jobs and I'm afraid that the future of vet school is going to make the experience even more competitive.

Imagine if an even larger proportion of students are applying for internships. That's only going to worsen grade-grubbing and gunning during the first 4 years. Heck, my school added 20-some odd spots to the class of 2016 and 2017 is going to be the same. How are employers going to deal when they start getting double or triple the number of applicants for private practice positions? Will that inevitably mean that internships are going to become more of a "requirement"? I certainly don't want to go for an internship after the years I put into veterinary clinics and animal care prior to vet school. My 4th year roommate last year got a job right out of school and I intend to try to do the same since I feel like I can find a good first job/mentorship through my networking, but it's not a guarantee and it will be even harder for those who have less work experience.
My thought the other day was, if more schools open, how many seats need to be available before the applicant pool quality begins to decline? Lets face it, lots of people want to be vets, but not as many applicants in whole (let alone quality) that the med schools have going for them.
 

Bill59

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I think the AVMA needs to reverse its position on handing out accreditation to programs without a teaching hospital, that would sure up this crisis.
They tried that with Western. The AVMA COE initially refused to supply Western with a letter of reasonable assurance of accreditation. So Western sued and the COE caved. Now that they have set the precedent, they risk another lawsuit if they refuse to accredit future schools on that basis.
 
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It also would do very little to help. Our problem is not that there are too many new grads. That's not helping, and it is hell on you all. But hte underlying problem is that our prevailing business model- the 1 to 2 doc local practice that handles everything in house- is no longer viable, demographically or economically or medically.

Demographically, vets don't want to be at work or on call all. the. time. We are almost all girls now, and despite cultural changes we still do the majority of housework, childwork and parent care.

Economically, we no longer have vaccines, superproducts like flea/tick/heartworm or pharmacy as revenue centers to subsidize routine surgeries and sick workups.

Medically, we can and should- and clients want us to- offer referral for services we simply can't justify investing in ourselves- advanced orthopedics like total hips, neuro sx for blown discs, ultrasound beyond the peek and shriek, CT, blood component therapy, diabetic management, radiation therapy, optho, derm, the list goes on.

Unfortunately these changes are taking place in the midst of the worst economic conditions since the 30's. If there were not another grad from any school, new or established, for about ten years we would be at about where we need to be in terms of numbers of veterinarians.
 

bbeventer

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They tried that with Western. The AVMA COE initially refused to supply Western with a letter of reasonable assurance of accreditation. So Western sued and the COE caved. Now that they have set the precedent, they risk another lawsuit if they refuse to accredit future schools on that basis.
I thought they caved due to 1) the AVMA not having a position on hospitals and 2) potential corruption in the AVMA ( I don't remember the details).
 
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Our problem is not that there are too many new grads.
Basic supply and demand would say if debt is high & income is too low to pay the debt then there is oversupply. Unfortunately the workforce planners for veterinarians have been biased and not done their accounting properly.