What do you think about these Step 1 Practice Scores? Predict me lol.

[ArteryStudyPainting]

Hi there,

So I am about 23 days away from Step (Covid). Here's my data:

15: 209
16: 213
20: 194
24: 190
UW1: 241
UW2: Not done yet.
3 other NBMEs: not done yet.

My most recent one was the UW1. The others were from school-mandated NBME tests taken during M2 year.

At this point, I comically get the same score on my Uworld questions, which w/ about 300 questions left, I'm at a 66% overall. Literally, whatever the average score is for a section, you can set your watch to me getting the same score. And I don't necessarily mind that (?). I could halfheartedly take the section, or really sit down and grind it; it's the same score, always.

I want to get at least a 230. I'm not a dermatologist, just don't want doors like EM, anesthesia, etc. to close.

What do you all think at this point? I want it to be over, but I'm just curious.

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[Internist_Sandman]

UWSA2 was the best predictor for me. I’d use that 2 weeks before your test and your real score will probably be +/-5 points.

UWorld % means nothing, I had similar percent and scored higher than SDN/Reddit suggested I would.

 

[M&L]

Hi there,

So I am about 23 days away from Step (Covid). Here's my data:

15: 209
16: 213
20: 194
24: 190
UW1: 241
UW2: Not done yet.
3 other NBMEs: not done yet.

My most recent one was the UW1. The others were from school-mandated NBME tests taken during M2 year.

At this point, I comically get the same score on my Uworld questions, which w/ about 300 questions left, I'm at a 66% overall. Literally, whatever the average score is for a section, you can set your watch to me getting the same score. And I don't necessarily mind that (?). I could halfheartedly take the section, or really sit down and grind it; it's the same score, always.

I want to get at least a 230. I'm not a dermatologist, just don't want doors like EM, anesthesia, etc. to close.

What do you all think at this point? I want it to be over, but I'm just curious.

so i put in your numbers into a spreadsheet from reddit that everyone said is very accurate (cannot say myself, because i just started M2). Anyway, the spreadsheet said that your predicted average is 237.24, 96% lower limit is 227.33, 95% upper limit is 247. So, according to spreadsheet you are in good shape.

 

[ArteryStudyPainting]

That dang spreadsheet XD. I appreciate it.

 

[M&L]

That dang spreadsheet XD. I appreciate it.

hahahah. I mean, i know. I honestly have no idea if it is correct or not, but everyone on reddit thinks that it is pretty accurate? the reason i personally like it, is because it gives me some sort of idea where i am at, you know? but when i look at it, i kind of assume the lowest 95th, So i go by the absolute lowest number on the spreadsheet.

When are you taking it?

 

[ArteryStudyPainting]

I like assuming I'll get the lowest number. Which a 227, while not amazing, far from makes me go, "ah I'm ruined". 22 days away.

If I get my averages on it, I'll be more than happy lol. A 70% correct would be great.

 

[Dantes]

The spreadsheet's average data is for step scores in the 240s. It becomes less predictive at scores below 240 from what I've seen. UWSAs tend to overpredict, especially 1. I would try to aim for NBMEs in the 220s if you want to feel comfortable going for 230. You still have 3 weeks so plenty of time to get into that range.

 

[fldoctorgirl]

I like assuming I'll get the lowest number. Which a 227, while not amazing, far from makes me go, "ah I'm ruined". 22 days away.

If I get my averages on it, I'll be more than happy lol. A 70% correct would be great.

This is the appropriate way to use the spreadsheet. Make sure you're comfortable getting that lowest 95% CI score. It has both overpredicted and underpredicted people (I fell basically to the top of my 95% CI, ~10 points above the official 'predicted'). Don't look at any one score as the most predicted, just make sure you've been improving over time and consistently getting better. 3 weeks is still a lot of time to hammer in on weaknesses.

 

[hungrydoc710]

Spreadsheet is overpredictive.
Take 18 and UW2, then take the average. Number was spot on for me.

I'd predict you getting a 220 on the real deal.

Also, doors like EM and anesthesia are open sub 220, so you're fine all around.

Good luck.

 

[ArteryStudyPainting]

Just took 18 as a feel good, you're on your way test; "don't worry" test.

202 .

 

[tbhdying]

when did you take all the NBMEs before 18?

let's see how your UWSA2 goes. I was never an NBME person myself, especially during my first two NBMEs. I think partly because it took time for me to get used to how different NBME style questions were vs UW. Around 2 weeks before my exam, I was hitting 235+ on NBMEs and my UWSA1 and 2 averaged at 245 ish. So i think with my 235+ NBMEs and UWSAs, i felt more comfortable with believing that I could hit 240s if exam day went well. I think if you're hitting 215 or less on NBMEs 2 weeks out, the UWSA1 score may become more of an outlier. Especially given the fact that UWSA1 is known to over predict. However, if you're doing 240s on both UWSAs and your last NBMEs end up around 230s -- you can feel more confident with the idea that you can hit 230+. Just my $0.02 here

EDIT: to answer the other part of your question; with my limited knowledge i'd say 215-220 is doable for you. I think EM/anesthesia are possible too if you do 215-220 ish on step 1, do better on STEP2, and take care of the rest of the understood shenanigans.

 

[hungrydoc710]

Just took 18 as a feel good, you're on your way test; "don't worry" test.

202 .

If you score well on UW2 (230+). I think you can hit around 220 which is solid for your interests.

Just grind it out and take the day off before your exam.

Good luck.

 

[TakotsuboOkazaki]

As you stand right now, probably around a 220.

Focus your weak points over the next two weeks. Take UW2. See where that lands.

Take an NBME a few days later.

Your score will be somewhere between those two if I had to guess.

That Reddit score predictor, while not perfect, was spot on for me and many people that I know.