http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26363626I've seen 3 studies that showed no statistically significant relationship between preclinical grades and step 1 score. Obviously it's logical to think grades correlate, but the data just isn't there.
Maybe the correlation is there at your school, but the variation in curricula, grading, etc makes it difficult to apply nationally.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20135567
The first study indicates that different courses have different weights as far as how well they predict and that some courses are not statistically significantly correlated with step 1 score. Still, major courses like pathology, epidemiology and pharm are significantly correlated (p<0.001). Anatomy, biochem, psychiatry, and some others were not significantly correlated. In any case, many courses correlate with step 1 performance. The second article indicates that cumulative preclinical grades predict step 1 failure.
In any case, even if studies were not finding a correlation, I'd think it's more likely that the study is wrong because it makes no sense. The preclinical courses are the subjects that step 1 tests. Findings indicating no correlation have a ton of prima facie evidence to overcome. Those studies are more likely to have something flawed in their methodology or be chance findings than they are to actually reflect that two things that are so obviously related turn out to have absolutely no bearing on one another.
The problem is that these kind of studies can't be carried out across institutions. Grading schemes are different and different schools don't even have all the same courses. The only standardized measures we have are the preclinical nbmes which not all schools use. Besides, studies have been done looking at the correlation between individual nbme exams and step 1 and they usually find a correlation (does this surprise anyone? I mean, they're both standardized science exams.)
In sum, I think people have reason to be very skeptical of anyone who claims that preclinical grades do not correlate with step 1 performance.
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