Army What's the attrition rate in your specialty?

[turkish]

Wondering if other Army subspecialties are seeing what I'm seeing. Almost no one sticking around past late O4 to early O5. Out of 11 people in my residency year group, only one is staying in past first chance to get out. Groups a few years ahead of me were 30% or so staying in, but ours is under 10%.

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[HighPriest]

It's pretty close to zero. The only people I know who are resigning anything are those within a few years of retirement. And surprisingly not even all of those guys are staying.

 

[psychbender]

Same here. I know a few that extended for a year or two for special circumstances, but everyone else is getting out at first opportunity. Only those with ridiculous commitments are sticking it out to 20.

 

[Chonal Atresia]

No surprise here.

Why would you stay when you can move across town and make 3-4x what the military pays? Why would you stay when you are constantly threatened with brigade surgeon tours and deployments? Why would you stay to have your leave/vacation scrutinized and denied by an E-3? Why would you stay to deal with all the worthless computer training?

Is 50k/yr pension really worth 20 years of misery? I guess everyone needs to answer that question for him/herself.

 

[Slevin]

With my prior service time when my obligation is complete I'll be at 15 years. Not sure it's worth it to jump ship that close to the end

 

[Chonal Atresia]

With my prior service time when my obligation is complete I'll be at 15 years. Not sure it's worth it to jump ship that close to the end

Financially, no.

Quality of life, probably.

 

[Gastrapathy]

The financial break even point for getting out depends on several factors.

Can you do reserves and collect at 60? This is worth ~50% of the AD retirement assuming you would retire at ~48.

What is your post-tax income differential?

Are you able to save rather than increase your spending?

Bottom line, almost everyone is making a financial mistake to leave after ~12 years.

Yet, I left at 13 with no regrets. I'm happier professionally. I'm present for my kids. I got into a practice young enough that they still wanted me.

 

[Chonal Atresia]

The financial break even point for getting out depends on several factors.

Can you do reserves and collect at 60? This is worth ~50% of the AD retirement assuming you would retire at ~48.

What is your post-tax income differential?

Are you able to save rather than increase your spending?

Bottom line, almost everyone is making a financial mistake to leave after ~12 years.

Yet, I left at 13 with no regrets. I'm happier professionally. I'm present for my kids. I got into a practice young enough that they still wanted me.

Well said, Gastrapathy.

I would certainly agree that as your income increases, your standard of living (i.e. expenses) increases. I certainly was not running off with my wife for a week-long getaway in Anguilla and shorter trips to NYC and the Greenbrier while on active duty.

Reserve is a decent option if you work for the VA, Kaiser, University-setting, etc. Not such a good option when you are in private practice and you are the one reaping the benefits of the reserves (i.e. pay, retirement, medical care after 60) but your partners are left sucking up the call and lost revenue.

 

[Gastrapathy]

Yup. Reserves aren't a good option for most.

 

[Perrotfish]

It seems like a lot of Pediatricians are getting sucked into fellowship. I think a lot of people get to the two year mark and decide that 5 years as a big MTF subspecialist >> 2 more years as a small MTF generalist.

 

[Cooperd0g]

It seems like a lot of Pediatricians are getting sucked into fellowship. I think a lot of people get to the two year mark and decide that 5 years as a big MTF subspecialist >> 2 more years as a small MTF generalist.

But then that gets you over the 10 year mark and start to get to the "financially better to stay in" argument.

 

[Perrotfish]

But then that gets you over the 10 year mark and start to get to the "financially better to stay in" argument.

Exactly. Everyone I know who stayed without a long initial commitment stayed because they did a fellowship, and then it was hard to justify leaving with only 7 years left until retirement.

 

[Chonal Atresia]

Exactly. Everyone I know who stayed without a long initial commitment stayed because they did a fellowship, and then it was hard to justify leaving with only 7 years left until retirement.

The proverbial carrot....

 

[didja]

This was (is) me exactly but I am considering getting out at 17 (would do VA and reserves for 5 years to salvage at 60).

 

[teacherman84]

I'm in FM where financially its a lot more enticing to stick it out and seeing USUHS grads walk regularly away at 10+ years.

One academy+USUHS grad i work with is walking at 15.

It sucks for GME, because we lose all our experienced, great faculty.

 

[DrMetal]

One academy+USUHS grad i work with is walking at 15.
.

Why? I understand that in the case of surgical subspecialitsts who can make a lot more money...




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[Gastrapathy]

This was (is) me exactly but I am considering getting out at 17 (would do VA and reserves for 5 years to salvage at 60).

The VA plus reserve deal is something to consider for anyone at the 15 year mark who is planning to stay. You're doing the 5 anyway.

At 17, I think I'd stay unless the VA job is a long term destination. 2 fewer years working for the government and only 2 years to the letter drop (after which, the clouds part).

 

[Gastrapathy]

Why? I understand that in the case of surgical subspecialitsts who can make a lot more money...




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Because they are ****ing miserable and people undervalue a pension.

 

[DrMetal]

Because they are ****ing miserable and people undervalue a pension.

Yeah but at 15+, as a PCP....I would think (hope) I could put up with the misery a bit longer to retire....oh well


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[TheGoose]

Bottom line, almost everyone is making a financial mistake to leave after ~12 years.

I'm wondering how the new blended retirement system chages the math. For those of us early enough in our careers to opt out of the traditional 20 pension, it seems like even more incentive to opt out asap and get into the blended system for a few years worth of a match before heading to the private sector. Even for those with a long commitment (academy/hpsp/usuhs/fellowships) getting into the new system for "x" years most likely has a decent return and changes that "##" years math. It seems like the new system really gives docs no reason to stay in. Thoughts?

 

[Gastrapathy]

I'm wondering how the new blended retirement system chages the math

. Thoughts?

My understanding of the new system isn't perfect but I think it's such a small match that I would keep the old system if given the choice just in case I decided to stay 20 active or reserve. But...if you are 100% sure you are out, take the money I guess. I agree that it will disincentivize staying even more once it's fully implemented.

 

[Perrotfish]

Yeah but at 15+, as a PCP....I would think (hope) I could put up with the misery a bit longer to retire....oh well

The call and clinic schedule that they are demanding from FMs these days is unsustainable, not that far off from what they ask of residents even without the ever increasing admin burden. They might as well be deployed, for all that their families see them. However much the retirement is worth, losing it still costs less than alimony.

 

[teacherman84]

The call and clinic schedule that they are demanding from FMs these days is unsustainable, not that far off from what they ask of residents even without the ever increasing admin burden. They might as well be deployed, for all that their families see them. However much the retirement is worth, losing it still costs less than alimony.

All of the above. Two 6 month deployments in 2 years, geographic separation from your family, overworked, underpaid, undersupported.
Finances are important but there are a lot of factors that cumulatively can overcome a pension.

 

[Homunculus]

was going to post a different thread with some similar themes. probably will, but will chime in a bit here. if you average the year groups ahead of me and behind me, you're looking at a group that is in the senior O4/O5 part of their careers. generally 40-50% are still in, most of those are USUHS or fellowship trained. i imagine this is pretty typical for the attrition rates they expect to see. to echo what others have said, i have also seen an uptick in those people in the 12-14 year range getting out, and will probably include myself in those numbers in the next year and half or so. i'm getting ready for my second deplyoment, and even as a pediatric subspecialist am having to play the roll the dice routine on attempting to get it split so it's only 4.5 months or so instead of 9. not that it was the sole reason i subspecialized but i'd be lying if the practice of split deployments (which were routine for years) didn't weigh in. i've been to NTC 3 times. no brigade surgeon tour, probably because my ADSO doesn't allow for a 2 year stint.

all total, depending on this deployment, i would have spent around 10% of my army career deployed or at NTC. which all in all may not be that bad. to add to the list of issues people have mentioned above, there's also the haphazard way deployments are assigned and the inordinately large number of non-deployable physicians that leave the rest of us unfortunately "normal" people to continue bearing the burden of the deployments and operational billets. i'm at a MEDCEN and out of our department we have 6 people non deployable for profiles and 2 due to their job requirements. we have an O6 who has never deployed who was awarded the "A" designator, and 3/4 of our recent incoming PCSing staff last summer couldn't deploy. i like to think we're the aberration, but i'm not so sure.

in the next 18 months 3 people from my department (to include me) will be getting out at 12, 14, and 14 years. another is likely to get out. 3 will finish time in the reserves or guard. 2 years ago i had a colleague totally separate (no reserve/guard) at 12. so it's definitely not uncommon. whether it has increased or not i don't know but it seems like a lot considering the pipeline to replace these people isn't going to make up the difference in some cases which will mean the hospital will have to contract the positions out until someone comes out of training.

the new retirement system will kill retention, which is probably their plan. once you hit 14 years on the new system, you will have built up a good sized retirement account with matched funds-- making staying until 20 even less appealing when you can double or triple your salary. the 20 year cliff is the only thing keeping many people in-- it's almost like offering a discounted 15 year retirement. it will be interesting to see what happens in 8-10 years.

--your friendly neighborhood the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter caveman

 

[pgg]

I'm wondering how the new blended retirement system chages the math.

Easy

Ignore the 1% base pay match. It's a meaningless drop in the bucket, likely worth less than $100K after 20 years, depending on market performance.

The new pension is 40% at 20y instead of 50%.

A reasonable way to put an instant cash value on the pension is to get a quote for an inflation indexed single premium immediate annuity.

Presently a retiring O5@20 gets about $52K per year, and assuming he's in his mid-40s a SPIA for the same cash benefit can be had for around $1.25 million.

The new system's pension "cash value" is probably worth about $1M (+health ins benefits which are hard to quantify).

So under the new system if you're at 12y and need to spend an extra 8 to get the pension, you should consider that during those 8 years the military is effectively contributing about $1M/8 = $125K/year of pretax dollars to your retirement in addition to your paycheck.

During those 8 extra years on AD, if you're making $200K/yr with a RP (aka MSP) contract, add the $125K to get a rough estimate of your total real compensation ($325K) ... which ignores tax benefits, which aren't trivial.

Now consider that as a civilian you can't easily put away $125K/yr pretax ... the equivalent civilian salary to match the military pay and retirement saving is probably $375K W-2 or $425K 1099.

If you can make more than that as a civilian, then it makes financial sense to get it at 12.


If you've got 15 years in already ... then the pension factor is $1M/5 = $200K/year and now your effective .mil pay is around $400K and the break-even civilian pay is pushing $500K.

If you're at 17 years, $1M/3 = $333K and break-even civilian pay is $650K+. It's almost always bad finance to get out that late. But money isn't everything.

 

[Homunculus]

Easy

Ignore the 1% base pay match. It's a meaningless drop in the bucket, likely worth less than $100K after 20 years, depending on market performance.

The new pension is 40% at 20y instead of 50%.

A reasonable way to put an instant cash value on the pension is to get a quote for an inflation indexed single premium immediate annuity.

Presently a retiring O5@20 gets about $52K per year, and assuming he's in his mid-40s a SPIA for the same cash benefit can be had for around $1.25 million.

The new system's pension "cash value" is probably worth about $1M (+health ins benefits which are hard to quantify).

So under the new system if you're at 12y and need to spend an extra 8 to get the pension, you should consider that during those 8 years the military is effectively contributing about $1M/8 = $125K/year of pretax dollars to your retirement in addition to your paycheck.

During those 8 extra years on AD, if you're making $200K/yr with a RP (aka MSP) contract, add the $125K to get a rough estimate of your total real compensation ($325K) ... which ignores tax benefits, which aren't trivial.

Now consider that as a civilian you can't easily put away $125K/yr pretax ... the equivalent civilian salary to match the military pay and retirement saving is probably $375K W-2 or $425K 1099.

If you can make more than that as a civilian, then it makes financial sense to get it at 12.


If you've got 15 years in already ... then the pension factor is $1M/5 = $200K/year and now your effective .mil pay is around $400K and the break-even civilian pay is pushing $500K.

If you're at 17 years, $1M/3 = $333K and break-even civilian pay is $650K+. It's almost always bad finance to get out that late. But money isn't everything.

i'll be the first to admit i'm not a financial guru, but i wanted to see if a couple of things change your math.

at the beginning of year 3, they will match up to 5% of your base pay contributions. so you can have 10% (at the cost of 5%) of your base pay invested in years 3-12. seems like a fair chunk of change.

also, an O5 with 18 (since you're assuming retiring at 20) would be around 51k on the current system, 41k on the new 40% model.

here's a good infographic: http://militarypay.defense.gov/Port...FINAL 10.1.2016.pdf?ver=2017-01-27-111503-300

the wildcard in this is what they pay us at the 12 year mark to get us to stay til 16, with the assumption we'd then stay to 20. it is a minimum 2.5x monthly *basic* pay (of course, haha) which is piddly but could be raised to a number that's worthwhile. if not, at 12 you could have a good chunk of TSP socked away and can then get 2-3x your pay on the civilian side to make up for that 40% you'd be "losing" by getting out at 12.

another option would be doing 12, transitioning to the reserves, doing 4+ years, getting your 4 years of HPSP "activated" as good reserve retirement years, then going into retire awaiting pay until you hit 60. at that point you will have maxed your time in grade as a MAJ or LTC (depending when you got out and if you are promoted in the reserves) and will get your % based off the pay table at 60 and not when you were 38-40 or 46 if you took an active duty retirement.

http://the-military-guide.com/reserve-retirement-calculator/2/

i guess my 10,000 foot view is that i don't think the 12 year blended with maxed TSP + civilian + reserves "beats" the AD retirement from a strict $ standpoing, but i think it may get closer than you think. and like people have mentioned, quality of life is hard to put a dollar figure on.

-- your friendly neighborhood reserves or national guard eyeballing caveman

 

[pgg]

at the beginning of year 3, they will match up to 5% of your base pay contributions.

I didn't realize the match went up to 5% ...

But even so, that's only about $32K of matched TSP contributions total from years 3-12 (assuming base pay ranges from $4950/mo as an O3>3 to $6887/mo as an O4>10). Still not impressed. It's an inconsequential sum in the context of retirement savings - I mean, the TSP contribution limit is $18K/year and that's within reach of most AD physicians.

 

[jabreal00]

From my fellowship class, half got out when they were eligible, to include me. I was 11 years in. There are just too many uncertainties to stay in the Army especially given the emphasis on operational assignment and the more hoops to jump through to progress past 04.

 

[Perrotfish]

i'm at a MEDCEN and out of our department we have 6 people non deployable for profiles and 2 due to their job requirements. we have an O6 who has never deployed who was awarded the "A" designator, and 3/4 of our recent incoming PCSing staff last summer couldn't deploy. i like to think we're the aberration, but i'm not so sure.

Well if it helps, this isn't just an Army problem.

 

[HighPriest]

So much more preferable to carry out a suicide attack at home. Way less of a headache.

 

[deuist]

Wondering if other Army subspecialties are seeing what I'm seeing. Almost no one sticking around past late O4 to early O5. Out of 11 people in my residency year group, only one is staying in past first chance to get out.

Over the last four years, all but one left active duty as soon as their commitments were over. The only one who stayed is doing a fellowship to get out of the ED.

i'm at a MEDCEN and out of our department we have 6 people non deployable for profiles and 2 due to their job requirements. we have an O6 who has never deployed who was awarded the "A" designator, and 3/4 of our recent incoming PCSing staff last summer couldn't deploy. i like to think we're the aberration, but i'm not so sure.

Our last hospital commander was an O-6 who had never once deployed. She worked clinically for all of 4 years after graduating residency and has been in admin ever since.