Who Do you plan to Vote for in the Republican Primary?

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Who are you planning to vote for in the Republican Primary?

  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 45 26.2%

  • Rick Perry

    Votes: 8 4.7%

  • Herman Cain

    Votes: 31 18.0%

  • Ron Paul

    Votes: 67 39.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 21 12.2%
  • Total voters
    172
zihuatanejo said:
While Obama certainly has his flaws, lack of intelligence is not one of them. Obama graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School (the number 1 or 2 law school in the country), which is an honor bestowed on the top 10% of the graduating class. In comparison, Mitt Romney graduated Cum Laude from Harvard Law School, which is an honor bestowed on the next 30% of the graduating class. So based on that metric or standard, you could make an argument that Obama is smarter than Romney.
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Its not lack of intelligence or anything as simple as that. Its just that he has a completely different world view than Americans who work for a living and pay taxes.
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Quirk11 said:
The Democrats are the undefeatable party in the long term...the plan is to grant citizenship to everyone (what is the alternative? export 40 million people)...? Once this happens, there will be few if any swing states left..this will happen circa 2018...
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This is only true if the Republican party deliberately chooses to ignore demographic changes. (They might; it wouldn't be the stupidest thing the party has done lately.) There's no reason why the fringes of the party can't turn down the derp and not deliberately alienate everyone who isn't a Christian white male.

I'm not holding my breath, but these things can change. It wasn't THAT long ago that the Democratic party was the party of white southern racists.

The Republicans will find a way to appeal to hispanic voters over the next decade, or they will lose any chance at the presidency and majorities in Congress. I bet in the end the fringe derp'ers decide they hate losing more than they hate migrant workers in the southwest.
 
TexasDoc2388 said:
I could care less who is president, it doesn't affect my life one bit. That's the great thing about living in Texas. You are sort of removed from all the foolishness of the rest of the country.
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Foolishness? I won't comment on your Gov's foolish support of policies such as in state tuition...
 
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1. Mitt Romney looked very good in the debate last night. That debate was the best so far IMHO.

2. Marco Rubio is the Republican party's answer to the Hispanic question. We will recruit more Marco Rubios as second generation Hispanics have much more in common with Republicans than Democrats.

3. This election is crucial to our future as a nation. Ron Paul knows we are running out of time ads IOU's to fix the problems.
 
The long term plan of the Democratic party is irrefutable, immigrants will break a higher percentage point for the party that gives them entitlements, and swing states will become blue. Right now the pattern is that Hispanics vote 2/3 for Democrats 1/3 for GOP (http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/130.pdf). The Democratics long term plan has worked in California, Colorado, formerly solid GOP states (in the case of your state PGG it was GOP when Blade was still in undergrad school: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6552). While Rubio can describe his "Hispanic-ness", the Democrats will have their own hispanic answer and will be providing voting rights, and entitlements circa 2016 - 2018...

For you Southern guys, if you are a conservative, growing up in an area dominated by liberalism and Democrats the best you can do is pass a "moderate" Republican who tweaks things a little bit, major reforms don't really happen...you just keep going along..

At the end of the day, the central question is what do the people who have the real power / money want to do with this country and the politicians they fund will follow..it is becoming a global world...

There are some truth tellers out there, I listen to and trust very few people for "real information", ie I don't get my news from TV...some of the people on this board are among the people that I consider "honest" and trustworthy..


BLADEMDA said:
1. Mitt Romney looked very good in the debate last night. That debate was the best so far IMHO.

2. Marco Rubio is the Republican party's answer to the Hispanic question. We will recruit more Marco Rubios as second generation Hispanics have much more in common with Republicans than Democrats.

3. This election is crucial to our future as a nation. Ron Paul knows we are running out of time ads IOU's to fix the problems.
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BLADEMDA said:
1. Mitt Romney looked very good in the debate last night. That debate was the best so far IMHO.

2. Marco Rubio is the Republican party's answer to the Hispanic question. We will recruit more Marco Rubios as second generation Hispanics have much more in common with Republicans than Democrats.

3. This election is crucial to our future as a nation. Ron Paul knows we are running out of time ads IOU's to fix the problems.
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I agree, Romney is the common sense option. Anyone else right now might prove to be a costly Palin-like experiment
 
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2011/10/13/herman-cain-leads-new-national-polls.html

Herman Cain Leads New National Polls

The White House and the press may now be treating Mitt Romney like the Republican nominee for president, but the polls are telling a different story. Two new national surveys show Herman Cain as the frontrunner: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Cain leading Romney 30 to 23, while a PPP poll shows Cain leading Romney 30-22. (The PPP poll also shows Newt Gingrich passing Rick Perry into third place, with 15 percent.) In the PPP survey, Cain is the favorite of Tea Party voters with 39 percent of the vote, while Romney is a distant fourth among the same crowd. PPP also has Cain leading Romney in Iowa, 30 to 22. Romney, however, remains on top in a third national survey by Reuters/Ipsos, leading Cain 23 to 19.
 

[FONT=ARIAL,VERDANA,HELVETICA][SIZE=+7]
pb.jpg
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BLADEMDA said:
2. Marco Rubio is the Republican party's answer to the Hispanic question. We will recruit more Marco Rubios as second generation Hispanics have much more in common with Republicans than Democrats.
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In order to have Marco Rubios you will need to have in-state tuition. Educated second generations do not necessarily turn to be the left masses. The key word here is educated ;)

Even if you take into consideration that you should not compare Cuban American with any other Latin American....
 
[YOUTUBE]992TkYucviw[/YOUTUBE]

I don't know how this guy could lose.
 
I think Herman Cain is going to win the GOP nomination. Once Ron Paul fizzles out in January and Cain wins Iowa the balance will shift towards Cain.

Romney is simply to establishment to win the nomination in 2012. I've changed my vote from Romney to Cain this January.

Go Herman Cain! I do realize that Cain has issues on Foreign Policy in terms of lack of knowledge. Still, I believe Cain can defeat Obama in 2012 and he is the Best Candidate (likely to win) among the those running to stick to his principles of limited government and free markets.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
I think Herman Cain is going to win the GOP nomination. Once Ron Paul fizzles out in January and Cain wins Iowa the balance will shift towards Cain.

Romney is simply to establishment to win the nomination in 2012. I've changed my vote from Romney to Cain this January.

Go Herman Cain! I do realize that Cain has issues on Foreign Policy in terms of lack of knowledge. Still, I believe Cain can defeat Obama in 2012 and he is the Best Candidate (likely to win) among the those running to stick to his principles of limited government and free markets.
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Herman understands much more about foreign policy than he is given credit for or that he's been given the opportunity to talk about. So much of the debates have been primarily about the economy and fluff that foreign policy really hasn't gotten much coverage. That will change.
 
Once January 2012 rolls around it will be a 2-3 dog race with Romney, Cain and Perry. Those in the GOP will have to choose from among those 3.

By March 2012 it will be Romney vs. Cain.

If Perry gets the Nomination Obama will slaughter him in the debates.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Once January 2012 rolls around it will be a 2-3 dog race with Romney, Cain and Perry. Those in the GOP will have to choose from among those 3.

By March 2012 it will be Romney vs. Cain.

If Perry gets the Nomination Obama will slaughter him in the debates.
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I am looking at all the options right now and it looks like Obama remains very potent against the GOP, even with his sagging approval. We need some type of boost in the GOP. Anyone expecting an easy win is going to be unpleasantly surprised. Obama is pretty crafty in a campaign setting.
 
Narcotized said:
What? Just cause he doesn't know the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan? I don't know the answer to that either. Big deal.
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Yeah, I don't know that either, but neither of us are running for president. :)

He'd never get 9-9-9 through Congress, even with a Repub majority in both houses. Philosophically I'd prefer a consumption tax to a production tax, but between the left screeching about a federal sales tax screwing the poor, and the right screeching about no-new-taxes-ever, it seems like a dead hopeless plan.

It's as if the guy was about to give up on his campaign, and decided to say screw it, I'm just going to mess with people and say the most outrageously unorthodox controversial things. And to everyone's shock, when he started doing that, he polled better.

Now he looks like a guy who's caught in the middle of a joke, which to his surprise wasn't received as a joke ... and now he's thinking maybe he should play it off as if he was serious all along.


To his credit, he and Paul seem to be the only ones seriously interested in fundamental changes to the country's fiscal policies, which we desperately need, and soon. Paul's unelectable. He's just too weird and as much as people like to think of themselves as libertarians, I don't think the country really wants a REAL libertarian as president.

Cain still strikes me as approximately as gimmicky, approximately as electable, and approximately as qualified as Ross Perot was. But I'll give him time to hang himself or prove himself.


To tell the truth, I'm a little more worried about what the Supreme Court is going to look like for the next few decades than I am who's going to be in the White House next. I think two more Sotomeyers or Kagans would be worse for the country than four years of Cain, Romney, or even Perry. I don't know who the R candidate will be, but I know who I won't be voting for in the election.

I'm by no means a single-issue voter, but I have real worries about losing the Heller/McDonald 5. We were ONE VOTE away from SCOTUS ruling that the 14th Amendment didn't mean what it really means. Another Obama term, and that majority is gone.
 
pgg said:
We were ONE VOTE away from SCOTUS ruling that the 14th Amendment didn't mean what it really means. Another Obama term, and that majority is gone.
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The conservative majority of the SCOTUS - Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Kennedy - are all relatively young and healthy and I think it is very unlikely that any of them would retire or die during a second Obama term. The only justice who I could see retiring would be Ginsburg, and she's probably the furthest to the left on the court so her replacement should not change the court's alignment.
 
lord_jeebus said:
The conservative majority of the SCOTUS - Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Kennedy - are all relatively young and healthy and I think it is very unlikely that any of them would retire or die during a second Obama term. The only justice who I could see retiring would be Ginsburg, and she's probably the furthest to the left on the court so her replacement should not change the court's alignment.
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I am reassured by that, but somewhere out there is a bus with the name of a SCOTUS Justice on it. :)
 
I prefer Herman, but he needs better control.

The "electric" fence with a sign ? WTF ?

"When I'm in charge of the fence, we going to have a fence. It's going to be 20 feet high. It's going to have barbed wire on the top. It's going to be electrocuted, electrified. And there's going to be a sign on the other side that says it will kill you."

This isn't a Sunday Morning football show...I am trying to imagine the reality of this fence, would animals also get "friend" and be edible...hmm

Hamhock said:
This already looks outdated.

and forgotten.

HH
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I'm not thrilled with any of these candidates. Christie was the "man" but he is not running for the nomination.

In the end we will end up with Romney or Cain. I'm very concerned Cain won't be able to match up against Obama in a debate or on the long campaign trail.

Paul, Bachmann, etc. will be out of the race by February.

Perry has solid ideas but the guy simply can't debate on national television. Obama will have him for lunch.
 
At this point we need to just get comfortable with Mitt romney being the nominee, and a strong possibility Obama might be around for a second term :mad:
 
It is unfortunate that Ron Paul isn't taken seriously, ironically he's the one with the best plan. I fear that Romney will lose to barry, but he probably has the best chance of winning the presidential election than any of the other GOP candidates.
 
urge said:
It shows his true colors. He will lie as needed, when needed. Some people like that. "Change we can believe in"..... "I didn't have sex with that woman"...."I'm not a crook"....

Ron Paul is the only real candidate.
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Ron Paul can't win.

I don't understand why people champion those who have no shot.
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
At this point we need to just get comfortable with Mitt romney being the nominee, and a strong possibility Obama might be around for a second term :mad:
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This is a strong possibility. Cain leading is more of a referendum against Romney.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Correct. But, I'm having trouble voting for Mitt Romney in the primary. He is too "progressive" for me.
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Romney simply isn't a conservative Republican - he's changed his position over the years to be more electable, but in the end, at best he's the furthest to the left of any of the Republican candidates.

I still think Herman is the real deal - and I think his accuser will end up being a relative of Anita Hill. I'm surprised pubic hairs haven't been mentioned yet.

And I still think that Gingrich is honestly the smartest one of the whole bunch, but I don't know if he's electable. He's been consistently excellent and common-sense throughout the debates - but I still remember that he was my congressman and walked away from it all.
 
jwk said:
Romney simply isn't a conservative Republican - he's changed his position over the years to be more electable, but in the end, at best he's the furthest to the left of any of the Republican candidates.

I still think Herman is the real deal - and I think his accuser will end up being a relative of Anita Hill. I'm surprised pubic hairs haven't been mentioned yet.

And I still think that Gingrich is honestly the smartest one of the whole bunch, but I don't know if he's electable. He's been consistently excellent and common-sense throughout the debates - but I still remember that he was my congressman and walked away from it all.
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Agree. Still, we haven't heard the last about the Cain issue. It will hurt him in the primary and my State votes in 90 days (88?)
 
Rick Perry is toast. He already was toast, but now he has taken toast to a whole new level. Not a fan of his, but can't help but feeling bad for him and how bumbling he looks. Better to know now that he would lose the general election.

Here's my dark horse upset prediction. Perry's support goes to Newt. Cain will eventually fall and his support goes to Newt. Newt beats White Obama (Romney) in the primary. President Newt in 2012.

I'm not particularly a Newt fan either, but this is how I see it going for now. Republicans do NOT want Romney, but who else is positioned to overtake him? And Americans do NOT want Obama.
 
Narcotized said:
Rick Perry is toast. He already was toast, but now he has taken toast to a whole new level. Not a fan of his, but can't help but feeling bad for him and how bumbling he looks. Better to know now that he would lose the general election.

Here's my dark horse upset prediction. Perry's support goes to Newt. Cain will eventually fall and his support goes to Newt. Newt beats White Obama (Romney) in the primary. President Newt in 2012.

I'm not particularly a Newt fan either, but this is how I see it going for now. Republicans do NOT want Romney, but who else is positioned to overtake him? And Americans do NOT want Obama.
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The search for a 'pure' conservative nominee has been fool's gold so far, and might cost the GOP this election. Play safe, go Romney. He is a nasty pill to swallow for conservatives, but the pickings are slim. I honestly believe the GOP has just as much a chance of winning as loosing even with the best candidiate. If unemployment drops below 8.5%, Obama will almost certainly win. Btw, I was watching the debate and could not help but wonder if any of these guys could actually win a debate against Obama. I don't like the guy, but I am pretty sure he knows how to talk, albeit crap.
 
pgg said:
The Republicans will find a way to appeal to hispanic voters over the next decade, or they will lose any chance at the presidency and majorities in Congress. I bet in the end the fringe derp'ers decide they hate losing more than they hate migrant workers in the southwest.
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:thumbup:, I have preached this for years. Unfortunately, we are our own enemies on this one. The hard right has all but declared war on Hispanics. Democrats will keep exploiting this dynamic, until it does us in. Obama plans to push an amnesty type legislation if he gets re-elected. Why? It is a win win. If the republicans shoot it down amidst angry tirades, Hispanics will run to democrats. If it passes, Hispanics will run to democrats. Only solution is to defeat Obama, and appeal to Hispanic voters. GOP as we know it is toast if it tries to go up against Hispanics, sorry to say, but that is just plain ol truth.
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
The search for a 'pure' conservative nominee has been fool's gold so far, and might cost the GOP this election. Play safe, go Romney. He is a nasty pill to swallow for conservatives, but the pickings are slim. I honestly believe the GOP has just as much a chance of winning as loosing even with the best candidiate. If unemployment drops below 8.5%, Obama will almost certainly win. Btw, I was watching the debate and could not help but wonder if any of these guys could actually win a debate against Obama. I don't like the guy, but I am pretty sure he knows how to talk, albeit crap.
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I agree. Only Newt or Romney could defeat Obama in a debate. I'm back to voting for Romney in January.
 
Narcotized said:
Rick Perry is toast. He already was toast, but now he has taken toast to a whole new level. Not a fan of his, but can't help but feeling bad for him and how bumbling he looks. Better to know now that he would lose the general election.

Here's my dark horse upset prediction. Perry's support goes to Newt. Cain will eventually fall and his support goes to Newt. Newt beats White Obama (Romney) in the primary. President Newt in 2012.

I'm not particularly a Newt fan either, but this is how I see it going for now. Republicans do NOT want Romney, but who else is positioned to overtake him? And Americans do NOT want Obama.
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Dunno, Narc. The betting crowd doesn't agree with you. Romney's got a 70.2% chance of winning the nomination according to those who are willing to put money on it. And Obama's got a 50.5% chance of winning the whole thing.
 
GoodmanBrown said:
Dunno, Narc. The betting crowd doesn't agree with you. Romney's got a 70.2% chance of winning the nomination according to those who are willing to put money on it. And Obama's got a 50.5% chance of winning the whole thing.
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What's intrade's historical record predicting primaries and general elections this far out? (Just asking, I have no idea, but I'd guess it's poor.)

538 did really, really excellent statistical work all through the last election. The primary author has a freely-admitted Democratic bias but I think he's about as impartial and analytic as they come. And what he seems to conclude is that this far out, polls and pundit predictions have never had much predictive value.
 
pgg said:
What's intrade's historical record predicting primaries and general elections this far out? (Just asking, I have no idea, but I'd guess it's poor.)

538 did really, really excellent statistical work all through the last election. The primary author has a freely-admitted Democratic bias but I think he's about as impartial and analytic as they come. And what he seems to conclude is that this far out, polls and pundit predictions have never had much predictive value.
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A good point, pgg. I have no idea how old Intrade is. The Iowa Electronic Markets are very similar to Intrade and have been up for quite some time. They were featured in a book called Wisdom of the Crowds published in 2004. That book gave a fair amount of praise to prediction markets. I put slightly more stock in them than polls. Obviously, prediction markets share the same weakness as polls, in that they cannot predict unknown upsets to the race, e.g. Herman Cain's sexual harrasment settlements or Rick Perry's debate gaffe.

I've also been tracking 538. Did you see the prediction calculator for the various Republican nominees? Very interesting. It obviously pegs Obama's chances below Intrade's prediction.

So, that's a long-winded way of saying that I've got my bets, just like everyone else. And, we've got 12 months for stuff to change.
 
I'm still hoping that Obama will realize how terrible he is and choose not to run at all. Problem with megalomaniacs is that they are unlikely to acknowledge their own falilure.
 
GoodmanBrown said:
Dunno, Narc. The betting crowd doesn't agree with you. Romney's got a 70.2% chance of winning the nomination according to those who are willing to put money on it. And Obama's got a 50.5% chance of winning the whole thing.
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I'm going to actually up my own rhetoric a notch and say at this point it's Gingrich's race to lose. Yup, I really believe that.

"A McClatchy-Marist poll showed Romney leading with 23 percent, and Gingrich close behind with 19 percent. Cain was trailing slightly with 17 percent. A CBS News poll also released Friday showed Cain leading with 18 percent -- Romney and Gingrich were close behind with 15 percent each."
 
Gingrich has mountains of baggage from the 90s that have been kind of ignored in the primary campaign so far. Maybe that's because he's never been a real contender and no one has taken him seriously.

If he rises in the polls, we're going to see a lot of very negative ads about his personal and professional ethics, ranging from his marriages to bribery accusations ($multimillion book advances) to House sanctions and a fine for tax issues.


I think Romney will quietly hang out on the sidelines, eating popcorn while everyone else self-destructs. Working so far.
Bachman - check
Cain - check
Perry - check
Gingrich - give it time
RON PAUL - no, but he'll be ignored anyway
 
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