Why so many?

[amberm4]

Anyone have any ideas why there were 4000 more August MCAT takers in 2005 than 2004? I also have read on SDN that applications are way up! Do you think the median scores are going to go way up for schools because of sheer number? Lots more competition for all of us.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[sanford_w/o_son]

Anyone have any ideas why there were 4000 more August MCAT takers in 2005 than 2004? I also have read on SDN that applications are way up!

bad economy = more folks go to school after the BA rather than take "administrative assistant" jobs

 

[little_late_MD]

bad economy = more folks go to school after the BA rather than take "administrative assistant" jobs

Bad economy? Are you out of your mind?

 

[unfrozencaveman]

Bad economy? Are you out of your mind?

Are you saying we're in a good economy? Or, that people don't go to grad school when they can't get jobs...

 

[wolfram241]

****

 

[AggieJohn]

It could be just more people around. The population is expanding...

 

[JG198]

or bad economy = people don't have the money for school, take that crappy administrative assistant job instead

People go to school in a bad economy because they can't find jobs. It also raises the prospect of a better paying job after that schooling....I think

 

[Apparition]

I think in the late 90s, during the dot com boom, the number of applicants dropped and began picking up again as the bubble burst and the economy gotworse.

 

[little_late_MD]

Are you saying we're in a good economy? Or, that people don't go to grad school when they can't get jobs...

Yes, we are in a good economy. GDP grew at 3.3 percent clip in Q2 of 2005. Inflation is low. Unemployment, when adjusted for the displacement caused by Katrina, is well within the "natural" rate. True, fuel costs are high, but these are more than offset by the wealth effect of a booming real estate market. Moreover, the people who are being adversely affected in this economy: low-wage, unskilled workers, are not the ones sending their children to med school. Everything is okay Chicken Little. The sky is not falling. The US economy is doing fine.

 

[unfrozencaveman]

Yes, we are in a good economy. GDP grew at 3.3 percent clip in Q2 of 2005. Inflation is low. Unemployment, when adjusted for the displacement caused by Katrina, is well within the "natural" rate. True, fuel costs are high, but these are more than offset by the wealth effect of a booming real estate market. Moreover, the people who are being adversely affected in this economy: low-wage, unskilled workers, are not the ones sending their children to med school. Everything is okay Chicken Little. The sky is not falling. The US economy is doing fine.

Well, ok, except the go to grad school vs get a job after graduation (particularly for med school considering all the prep it takes to get there) is on a 2-3 (or 4) year lag time.

 

[WholeLottaGame7]

I think in the late 90s, during the dot com boom, the number of applicants dropped and began picking up again as the bubble burst and the economy gotworse.

Actually, this is also what my premed advisor told us. Med school applications are cyclical, following economic patterns. With a better economy, less applicants. Worse economy, more applicants because being an MD has guaranteed job security. She showed a graph correlating the two. Obviously, it's a little staggered, but there was definitely a correlation. Plus, it makes sense.

 

[little_late_MD]

Actually, this is also what my premed advisor told us. Med school applications are cyclical, following economic patterns. With a better economy, less applicants. Worse economy, more applicants because being an MD has guaranteed job security. She showed a graph correlating the two. Obviously, it's a little staggered, but there was definitely a correlation. Plus, it makes sense.

Is this the graph you're talking about?

This graph show a correlation more with changes in the MCAT circa 1991 more than anything else. I would think there is more to cyclical fluctuations than the economy.

Here is the article that details the ups and downs in med school applications over the past few decades: Clicky Clicky

 

[WholeLottaGame7]

Is this the graph you're talking about?
Here is the article that details the ups and downs in med school applications over the past few decades: Clicky Clicky

Good article. May I quote?

"However, there are indications that the numbers may be a reflection of a strong labor market that has created attractive career opportunities for college graduates in many fields who otherwise might have considered entering medicine or the health professions. A review of the history and data on numbers of applicants over the past 40 years shows that they tend to follow a cyclical pattern, the characteristics of which have been strongly influenced at times by government policies and socioeconomic trends."

It goes on to mention times of war, the stock market, Internet boom, etc, as potential factors, which all seem economic (or related) to me, which was my point.

But you're correct, they also note correlation to changes in MCAT, but my impression from the article was that the AAMC made MCAT changes in order to combat these pre-existing changes.

 

[little_late_MD]

Good article. May I quote?

"However, there are indications that the numbers may be a reflection of a strong labor market that has created attractive career opportunities for college graduates in many fields who otherwise might have considered entering medicine or the health professions. A review of the history and data on numbers of applicants over the past 40 years shows that they tend to follow a cyclical pattern, the characteristics of which have been strongly influenced at times by government policies and socioeconomic trends."

It goes on to mention times of war, the stock market, Internet boom, etc, as potential factors, which all seem economic (or related) to me, which was my point.

But you're correct, they also note correlation to changes in MCAT, but my impression from the article was that the AAMC made MCAT changes in order to combat these pre-existing changes.

Calm down you bad m***** f*****. I wasn't saying you were incorrect. However, I did imply that you can't pin social trends on one factor or another. That's why I included the entire article. If I was trying to make you look bad, I could have just posted the graph, and said whatever I wanted to about it.

And I believe the MCAT was changed to get a wider variety of applicant in the med school pool.

 

[dmtang2]

you guys are all wrong. but nice theories though.

it's because people got butt-f^^ked on the april exam and were forced to retake in august.

 

[Elastase]

Could it be that people are anticipating that the MCAT is changing to computer based next summer? My bet is on the fact that nobody can see themselves doing better on a computer than on paper...

I know a couple of people that decided to take the test this summer because of that very reason (So they have a paper-test back up for April 2006).

 

[Indryd]

Yes, we are in a good economy. GDP grew at 3.3 percent clip in Q2 of 2005. Inflation is low. Unemployment, when adjusted for the displacement caused by Katrina, is well within the "natural" rate. True, fuel costs are high, but these are more than offset by the wealth effect of a booming real estate market. Moreover, the people who are being adversely affected in this economy: low-wage, unskilled workers, are not the ones sending their children to med school. Everything is okay Chicken Little. The sky is not falling. The US economy is doing fine.

I like the very Hannity-ish/O'Reilly-ish way you leave out the percentages of people living in poverty:

[quoted from sadlyno.com, the first (red) part is a Bush lover telling a lie, the second part (blue) is a reply with facts]

"Hold on America, here comes more spin by Bill Clinton and the biased media that perpetuates ignorance of real statistics that show President Bush has given more of America's money to help the poor. Bill Clinton did less to help the black or white poor in the years of his presidency. He was only perceived as the friend of the poor due to his quivering lower lip and a very liberal, very biased media.

Facts

Poverty rate under Clinton was 13.7% under Bush it is 12.7%


Truly amazing. Let's take a look at the U.S. Census Bureau's table of historical poverty rates:

Percentage of People Living Below Poverty Level During the Clinton Administration:

1993: 15.1%
1994: 14.5%
1995: 13.8%
1996: 13.7%
1997: 13.3%
1998: 12.7%
1999: 11.9%
2000: 11.3%


Marie, do ya notice something about those numbers? That's right! In every single year, the percentage of Americans living in poverty dropped! Every. Single. One.

And remember that when Clinton was elected in 1992, national unemployment was averaging more than 7%, and we were still recovering from a recession. So of course there was a higher poverty rate at the start of Clinton's administration- how could there not be? But by the end of the decade, the poverty rate had dropped to an astonishingly low 11.3%- the lowest overall rate since 1974.

Now, let's take a look at what's happened since Bush took over in 2001:

Percentage of People Living Below Poverty Level Under the Bush Administration:

2001: 11.7%
2002: 12.1%
2003: 12.5%
2004: 12.7%"

And really, if you want to have a look at the reality of the numbers you chose:

Reality check?

And if you just look around for some stats for a bit, you will see that the last year (since that article was published) has been Bush's worst.

Down with poor people!

 

[WholeLottaGame7]

Calm down you bad m***** f*****. I wasn't saying you were incorrect. However, I did imply that you can't pin social trends on one factor or another. That's why I included the entire article. If I was trying to make you look bad, I could have just posted the graph, and said whatever I wanted to about it.

And I believe the MCAT was changed to get a wider variety of applicant in the med school pool.

Haha, I didn't think it came across that hostile. Maybe it was the shifty picture of Mayor Adam West that lent it that aura

Anyways, I wasn't implying that economy was the only driving factor in medical school admissions. Going long-term from say the 40s or 50s, you also have factors such as the women's right movement, efforts to reach out to minorities, etc, that will affect application numbers. I would still argue, however, that economy definitely plays a huge role in people's life decisions and is more responsible than any one other factor. Just going off SDN, I would have to argue that a fairly considerable number of people would go into whatever career path would guarantee them the most money. Flash back 5-7 years, and knowing that you can go into a dot.com business straight out of college and probably nail down 80K+, who is going to want to get puked/spit/urinated on for 4 years while studying your ass off and racking up debt? Some people will, obviously, but others follow the money.

And you'd better agree with me, because Adam West knows where you live.

 

[Law2Doc]

Anyone have any ideas why there were 4000 more August MCAT takers in 2005 than 2004? I also have read on SDN that applications are way up! Do you think the median scores are going to go way up for schools because of sheer number? Lots more competition for all of us.

As much as I enjoy all of the socioeconomic theories on this thread, I wonder if the rise in applications has to do more with the glut of doctor shows on TV than anything else. Just as law school applications boomed shortly after LA Law began glamorizing law, the increase in medical related TV perhaps has driven the med school numbers. With the revitalization of ER, the renewal of scrubs, a second season of the popular Grays anatomy, House, and even on basic cable shows like Dr 90210, there are far more glamorized MDs on TV now than ever in history. Perhaps this is a driving force?

 

[PineappleGirl]

As much as I enjoy all of the socioeconomic theories on this thread, I wonder if the rise in applications has to do more with the glut of doctor shows on TV than anything else. Just as law school applications boomed shortly after LA Law began glamorizing law, the increase in medical related TV perhaps has driven the med school numbers. With the revitalization of ER, the renewal of scrubs, a second season of the popular Grays anatomy, House, and even on basic cable shows like Dr 90210, there are far more glamorized MDs on TV now than ever in history. Perhaps this is a driving force?

I think this is a very valid point. I saw a presentation last year in which they attributed the huge increase in the number of people applying to forensic science programs to the popularity of CSI (the CBS show).

 

[jebus]

Bad economy or not, consumer confidence probably would be a better measure. If people think the economy is bad they will change their behaviour accordingly. The economy is hot, but all of the heat is in corporate profits which are at their highest level since the post WWII era. It makes sense, Bush, et al, are pursuing a trickle-down model. That said, the regular Joe isn't seeing that growth.
But I don't think that's it. I bet more international students wrote the test (when in doubt blame globalization!) and a lot of people in the states took it to avoid the CBT.

 

[45408]

I think this is a very valid point. I saw a presentation last year in which they attributed the huge increase in the number of people applying to forensic science programs to the popularity of CSI (the CBS show).

apparently, the number of applicants for coroner positions have soared as well. The coroner (not to be confused with the medical examiner!) is a position with relatively minimal qualifications, so when a spot opened up in an adjacent county, the applications went through the roof.

 

[SailCrazy]

Could it be that people are anticipating that the MCAT is changing to computer based next summer? My bet is on the fact that nobody can see themselves doing better on a computer than on paper...

I know a couple of people that decided to take the test this summer because of that very reason (So they have a paper-test back up for April 2006).

April & August 2006 will still be paper-based (with an option do do a computerized version of the paper-based test.) April 2007 is when the fully computerized (and structurally altered) test begins.

 

[bug22catch]

Does anyone actually know how many applications there are this year, or by what % applications to med school have gone up.

Also, does anyone have a link to stats from 2005? Thanks.

 

[little_late_MD]

Does anyone actually know how many applications there are this year, or by what % applications to med school have gone up.

Also, does anyone have a link to stats from 2005? Thanks.

You won't know how many applications for this year until the end of the cycle.

As for last year: http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/pressrel/2004/041020.htm




In regards to the theory that more medical TV shows are producing more applicants: please God do not let that be true. Please don't let Scrubs or House be the reason people take the MCAT.

 

[bug22catch]

You won't know how many applications for this year until the end of the cycle.

As for last year: http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/pressrel/2004/041020.htm

thanks! that's interesting. but still only 2004. i haven't been able to find data from 2005 - and i think applications were up even more than 2004.

 

[bug22catch]

Isn't 2005 right now? Aren't people still applying?

no, the year is usually based on matriculation. so people who started med school this year would be considered 2005 applicants and we are 2006 applicants. but maybe it is too soon for data to have been collected. i'm just saying, it's hard to know how many people are applying this year because the last info we have is from 2004 (meaning people applying in 2003). ug!

 

[SailCrazy]

I figured that out about a minute after I posted (thus the deletion!)

Looks like I didn't get there fast enough to avoid your reply.

no, the year is usually based on matriculation. so people who started med school this year would be considered 2005 applicants and we are 2006 applicants. but maybe it is too soon for data to have been collected. i'm just saying, it's hard to know how many people are applying this year because the last info we have is from 2004 (meaning people applying in 2003). ug!

 

[bug22catch]

I figured that out about a minute after I posted (thus the deletion!)

Looks like I didn't get there fast enough to avoid your reply.

no worries! i wish we could call specific med schools and ask how many applications they have right now. ok, being obsessive...

 

[deleted77919]

For anyone interested in Rochester, I was there the other day. They said they typically get about 4000 applications and at the moment they were just under that, but with the Oct 15th deadline having just recently passed they expect to get a few more in during the next download and antcipate having just over 4000 applications this cycle. Best of luck everyone.

 

[sanford_w/o_son]

It could also be that recent generations are better able to accept to the fact that the days of physician professionalism and complete control over their medical work are dwindling. Folks ready to apply to medical school now spent many years being exposed to this transition, whereas the older folks like me had to redefine medicine at some point as a less autonomous and more regulated occupation than it had been--and the nasty taste it left behind ruined their appetite for medicine.

As far as unemployment in the economy goes, isn't it the case that the biggest growth in jobs has been in the low-skilled, blue collar service sector? If so, I wouldn't expect such growth to have a big impact on the decisions of college grads. Along with med school apps, I think the big interest in TFA has to do with the economy as well (outside all the money they've spent in advertising). Many of my college grad friends in Chicago are having a tough time finding white collar jobs.

 

[prana_md]

This thread is interesting, because when I started post-bacc in August 2002, I specifically remember a presentation by the program director about falling application numbers. He attributed it the dot-com economy and growing awareness that being a doctor is not all about the $$$ anymore. I'm in the Bay Area, and back then the economy was in the toilet. I know several people (including me) who reconsidered medicine after the bubble burst. The current upward trend in applicants could be all of us who lost our jobs three years ago, finishing our pre-requisites, and applying now.

 

[willow18]

In regards to the theory that more medical TV shows are producing more applicants: please God do not let that be true. Please don't let Scrubs or House be the reason people take the MCAT.

Or (oh god please no...) Grey's Anatomy. What an awful, repugnant, mutilating-the-facts TV show.