DrJeff

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Here are some real world numbers about why the future of dentistry is very promising for us current young professionals and future professionals. These are numbers for my home state, Connecticut, and demographically across the country the numbers are similiar(atleast that's what the ADA's central office tells me).

In CT, we currently have a little over 2500 licensed dentists (85% are members of the ADA). Of those 2500, a little over 60% (or roughly 1500 are age 50 or older) and anticipated to retire within 15 years. Over the past 10 years, an average of 50 new dental licenses have been granted by the state of CT per year. Of these new licenses, almost 50% are for female dentists. Thats the data. So over the next 15 years we in CT are expected to have 1500 retirees and only 750 new dentists :eek: Now here is where the 50% female licenses comes into play, and this is not meant to be sexist at all. On average, female dentists do not practice full time due to many reasons (family, etc, etc). The average female dentist in CT works approximately 1/3rd less hours per week compared to the average male dentist as per a recent survey of the CT state dental association membership.

Now those numbers start to look more like the following, 1500 retirees, 750 new dentists (375 male, 375 female - females on average working 1/3rd less than males so the female real number is more like 250). Now it becomes 1500 retirees and 625 new dentists over the next 15 years. Last fact, Connecticut has the highest per capita income (just ahead of New Jersey) of any state in the US.

It's good to be a younger dentist! :love:
 

Fullosseousflap

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DrJeff said:
Here are some real world numbers about why the future of dentistry is very promising for us current young professionals and future professionals. These are numbers for my home state, Connecticut, and demographically across the country the numbers are similiar(atleast that's what the ADA's central office tells me).

In CT, we currently have a little over 2500 licensed dentists (85% are members of the ADA). Of those 2500, a little over 60% (or roughly 1500 are age 50 or older) and anticipated to retire within 15 years. Over the past 10 years, an average of 50 new dental licenses have been granted by the state of CT per year. Of these new licenses, almost 50% are for female dentists. Thats the data. So over the next 15 years we in CT are expected to have 1500 retirees and only 750 new dentists :eek: Now here is where the 50% female licenses comes into play, and this is not meant to be sexist at all. On average, female dentists do not practice full time due to many reasons (family, etc, etc). The average female dentist in CT works approximately 1/3rd less hours per week compared to the average male dentist as per a recent survey of the CT state dental association membership.

Now those numbers start to look more like the following, 1500 retirees, 750 new dentists (375 male, 375 female - females on average working 1/3rd less than males so the female real number is more like 250). Now it becomes 1500 retirees and 625 new dentists over the next 15 years. Last fact, Connecticut has the highest per capita income (just ahead of New Jersey) of any state in the US.

It's good to be a younger dentist! :love:

And...it is not bad being an older dentist whose kids are grown and in professional school....

Ouch those tuition bills! ;)
 

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DrJeff said:
Here are some real world numbers about why the future of dentistry is very promising for us current young professionals and future professionals. These are numbers for my home state, Connecticut, and demographically across the country the numbers are similiar(atleast that's what the ADA's central office tells me).

In CT, we currently have a little over 2500 licensed dentists (85% are members of the ADA). Of those 2500, a little over 60% (or roughly 1500 are age 50 or older) and anticipated to retire within 15 years. Over the past 10 years, an average of 50 new dental licenses have been granted by the state of CT per year. Of these new licenses, almost 50% are for female dentists. Thats the data. So over the next 15 years we in CT are expected to have 1500 retirees and only 750 new dentists :eek: Now here is where the 50% female licenses comes into play, and this is not meant to be sexist at all. On average, female dentists do not practice full time due to many reasons (family, etc, etc). The average female dentist in CT works approximately 1/3rd less hours per week compared to the average male dentist as per a recent survey of the CT state dental association membership.

Now those numbers start to look more like the following, 1500 retirees, 750 new dentists (375 male, 375 female - females on average working 1/3rd less than males so the female real number is more like 250). Now it becomes 1500 retirees and 625 new dentists over the next 15 years. Last fact, Connecticut has the highest per capita income (just ahead of New Jersey) of any state in the US.

It's good to be a younger dentist! :love:

Looks like I chose the right dental school...
 
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DrJeff

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Fullosseousflap said:
And...it is not bad being an older dentist whose kids are grown and in professional school....

Ouch those tuition bills! ;)
No, we younger folk just want you old guys to retire, start wearing white patent leather shoes and taking advantage of the 4:30PM senior early bird specials :D :rolleyes: ;)

This way we can grab all your patients for us :clap: :laugh:

In all honesty though, I'm just trying to figure out how I will deal with a swelling patient load. I can just see it now in the future. Okay Mrs. X, that painfull tooth have is because the nerve is dying and you need a root canal to fix it. I can see you in 4 months to do it :eek:
 

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Dr.Jeff,
How did you find those stats? I'd like to look up those stats for other states.
thanks
 
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lnn2 said:
Dr.Jeff,
How did you find those stats? I'd like to look up those stats for other states.
thanks
Directly from the ADA and their membership dept. The Connecticut numbers came directly from the executive director's desk (I'm a bit involved in dental politics). I'm sure that if you called up just about any state dental society and asked for a membership break down based on age and you could get that info which they typically have for the entire state and then each component dental society.

BTW, another interesting tidbit I got off the national demographics is that Full Osseous Flap's home state, California, has the most number of licensed dentists in the U.S. (just over 25,000) while Wyoming had the least at just over 200! :eek: If memory also serves me correctly, Deleware had the highest percentage of licensed dentists that were ADA members at just under 93%, the state with the lowest slips my mind right now, but it had a ADA membership rate of about 67%. Nationally the ADA has a membership rate of almost 80% of licensed dentists. Hence, the ADA can present a decent political front for lobbying purpose with that many members and that high of a percentage. The AMA by the way has just a membership of just under 60%. I'll try and remember to bring the fax home from the office tommorrow and put up some more interesting stats about #'s of dentists and ADA membership rates (although sometimes I get a little absent minded on Friday's :rolleyes: and tommorrow really has that potential since when I walk out of the office tommorrow afternoon, I'm on vacation for the next 10 days :clap: :hardy: :D )
 

aphistis

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DrJeff said:
Directly from the ADA and their membership dept. The Connecticut numbers came directly from the executive director's desk (I'm a bit involved in dental politics). I'm sure that if you called up just about any state dental society and asked for a membership break down based on age and you could get that info which they typically have for the entire state and then each component dental society.

BTW, another interesting tidbit I got off the national demographics is that Full Osseous Flap's home state, California, has the most number of licensed dentists in the U.S. (just over 25,000) while Wyoming had the least at just over 200! :eek: If memory also serves me correctly, Deleware had the highest percentage of licensed dentists that were ADA members at just under 93%, the state with the lowest slips my mind right now, but it had a ADA membership rate of about 67%. Nationally the ADA has a membership rate of almost 80% of licensed dentists. Hence, the ADA can present a decent political front for lobbying purpose with that many members and that high of a percentage. The AMA by the way has just a membership of just under 60%. I'll try and remember to bring the fax home from the office tommorrow and put up some more interesting stats about #'s of dentists and ADA membership rates (although sometimes I get a little absent minded on Friday's :rolleyes: and tommorrow really has that potential since when I walk out of the office tommorrow afternoon, I'm on vacation for the next 10 days :clap: :hardy: :D )
60%? If that's the case, it'd mean the AMA has managed to improve membership numbers in the last few years, nein? Enjoy your vacation. ;)
 
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aphistis said:
Enjoy your vacation. ;)
Thanks, I'm just hoping that the weather pattern in the Wasatch range of Utah shifts out of the warm and dry pattern that its been in the past few weeks and back into a cold and snowy pattern :rolleyes:

Yes, you can guess from this post that its a ski vacation for me!
 

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DrJeff said:
Here are some real world numbers about why the future of dentistry is very promising for us current young professionals and future professionals. These are numbers for my home state, Connecticut, and demographically across the country the numbers are similiar(atleast that's what the ADA's central office tells me).

In CT, we currently have a little over 2500 licensed dentists (85% are members of the ADA). Of those 2500, a little over 60% (or roughly 1500 are age 50 or older) and anticipated to retire within 15 years. Over the past 10 years, an average of 50 new dental licenses have been granted by the state of CT per year. Of these new licenses, almost 50% are for female dentists. Thats the data. So over the next 15 years we in CT are expected to have 1500 retirees and only 750 new dentists :eek: Now here is where the 50% female licenses comes into play, and this is not meant to be sexist at all. On average, female dentists do not practice full time due to many reasons (family, etc, etc). The average female dentist in CT works approximately 1/3rd less hours per week compared to the average male dentist as per a recent survey of the CT state dental association membership.

Now those numbers start to look more like the following, 1500 retirees, 750 new dentists (375 male, 375 female - females on average working 1/3rd less than males so the female real number is more like 250). Now it becomes 1500 retirees and 625 new dentists over the next 15 years. Last fact, Connecticut has the highest per capita income (just ahead of New Jersey) of any state in the US.

It's good to be a younger dentist! :love:
The trend we are observing (more retirees and less new dental school graduates) has been documented in Canada as well. The number of dental schools and available admissions has also dropped since the 1970s after the huge influx of baby boomers who entered the profession. Another trend which has been noted is that there are more employment possibilities for new dentists in the rural areas as oppose to the urban areas.

As for the female demographics, in my graduating class I would say that we were 70% female! Also, more women, especially career women, are consciously choosing to NOT have children and thus, less women than you think will be working on a part time basis. I will probably be one of them. The birthrate in Canada for instance, is 1.5 children per couple. Presently, the industrialized nations have the lowest birthrates than they ever had.

http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2004/jun/04060204.html

I think that some women, not only in dentistry, would love to work part time, but unfortunately there are no existing daycares (as far as I know) that have part time daycare hours. Ideally, the government would institutionalize a daycare system which would help mothers who chose to work part time. Also, the government should be more family friendly in regards to tax breaks as raising kids costs a lot of money these days. Ok...I think I may be going off topic here! LOL! :laugh:
 

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aphistis said:
60%? If that's the case, it'd mean the AMA has managed to improve membership numbers in the last few years, nein? Enjoy your vacation. ;)
Agreed, the last stats I viewed were in 2002. A mailer from the AMA to my father (a physician and part-time faculty at medical school) stated that national membership was at 38%.
 

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DrJeff,

Thanks for the informative and upbeat post. It is nice to read insightful commentary that is based upon hard numbers, not hearsay or speculation.

I had been thinking of relocating to Connecticut after graduation because of my family there. This is another reason for me to do so!
 

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It is so comforting to know that there will be a legitimate demand for us when we graduate. Job security means so much these days.

But considering that dentists are starting to struggle with their patient loads, are we going to have a magnified access to care issue as 2 old dentists retire for every 1 coming in?
 

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A simple economic principle of supply and demand...

A decrease in supply (dentists) or an increase in demand (patients per dentist) results in an increase in prices. :thumbup:

Therefore, Dr. X will be able to earn a better living, not because he/she is seeing more patients, but because his/her time is now a more valuable commodity. Of course, if he/she wants to see more patients as well, then that means even more toys and gifts for his/her spouse and kids as a result of the additional income.
 
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Here are the real membership numbers(these numbers reflect active licensed dentists) that I was talking about. These are directly from the ADA as of December 31, 2004. I'll post selected states that I know have interest here (I've got the data on all 50 so if you want to know about a state that I haven't posted for, just add to the thread!)

I'll do it at followed: total number of licensed dentists/% ADA members

Arizona: 2,533/72.1%
California: 25,297/68.8%
Connectciut: 2,473/81.0%
Deleware: 338/94.1%
Florida: 8,003/73.8%
Indiana: 2,756/82.2%
Massachusetts: 4,717/84.3%
Maryland: 3,479/58.7%
New York: 13,709/73.8%
Texas: 9,191/70.4%
Utah: 1274/96.3%
Dental Schools: 3,079/71.2%

Nationwide(including armed services, US territories and international members): 176,063/71.4% = 125,726 paying ADA members!


Sorry about my initial 80% being off a little, that's what I get from trying to post data from a 5 page fax by memory at midnight!
 

aphistis

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Rezdawg said:
A simple economic principle of supply and demand...

A decrease in supply (dentists) or an increase in demand (patients per dentist) results in an increase in prices. :thumbup:

Therefore, Dr. X will be able to earn a better living, not because he/she is seeing more patients, but because his/her time is now a more valuable commodity. Of course, if he/she wants to see more patients as well, then that means even more toys and gifts for his/her spouse and kids as a result of the additional income.
All true enough--but you're making an important assumption, that government won't influence the equation somewhere along the line. I'm looking forward to rising incomes as much as anyone else, but they're not yet a fait accompli.
 

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aphistis said:
All true enough--but you're making an important assumption, that government won't influence the equation somewhere along the line. I'm looking forward to rising incomes as much as anyone else, but they're not yet a fait accompli.
Yes, you are right. Hopefully, measures can be made to keep governmental influence at a minimum.
 

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DrJeff said:
Here are the real membership numbers(these numbers reflect active licensed dentists) that I was talking about. These are directly from the ADA as of December 31, 2004. I'll post selected states that I know have interest here (I've got the data on all 50 so if you want to know about a state that I haven't posted for, just add to the thread!)

I'll do it at followed: total number of licensed dentists/% ADA members

Arizona: 2,533/72.1%
California: 25,297/68.8%
Connectciut: 2,473/81.0%
Deleware: 338/94.1%
Florida: 8,003/73.8%
Indiana: 2,756/82.2%
Massachusetts: 4,717/84.3%
Maryland: 3,479/58.7%
New York: 13,709/73.8%
Texas: 9,191/70.4%
Utah: 1274/96.3%
Dental Schools: 3,079/71.2%

Nationwide(including armed services, US territories and international members): 176,063/71.4% = 125,726 paying ADA members!


Sorry about my initial 80% being off a little, that's what I get from trying to post data from a 5 page fax by memory at midnight!
Just a little curious. About how big does your patient pool need to be to have a successfull practice? I noticed that if I calculated the number of people per dentist in Arizona(where I'm from) that I came up with a number of about 2000. Yet, I've heard that a good healthy practice has 8K to 10K patients. What do the rest of you think and if my calcs are roughly correct, isn't this a little worrisome. A lot of the other states are probably similar.
 

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QCkid said:
Just a little curious. About how big does your patient pool need to be to have a successfull practice? I noticed that if I calculated the number of people per dentist in Arizona(where I'm from) that I came up with a number of about 2000. Yet, I've heard that a good healthy practice has 8K to 10K patients. What do the rest of you think and if my calcs are roughly correct, isn't this a little worrisome. A lot of the other states are probably similar.


One of the dentists that I followed was in a 3 way partnership with 2 other guys and their total practice had about 6500 active patients. He said that it kept him as busy as he wanted to be. I have heard that Arizona (where I am from also) has somewhere around 1:3000 but that the majority of the dentists are obviously in Phoenix and Tucson. I would think that if you went to Prescott or anywhere in the White mountains you could do quite well. Where are you from?
 

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Any stats for New Mexico?

I know that we are ranked 50th in the nation in terms of access to dental care, and that for a state with about 1.8 mil. people, we have roughly 750 dentists (at least the last time I checked). We have entire counties (that are about the size of some of the east-coast states) that do not have a single dentist.
 

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TucsonDDS said:
One of the dentists that I followed was in a 3 way partnership with 2 other guys and their total practice had about 6500 active patients. He said that it kept him as busy as he wanted to be. I have heard that Arizona (where I am from also) has somewhere around 1:3000 but that the majority of the dentists are obviously in Phoenix and Tucson. I would think that if you went to Prescott or anywhere in the White mountains you could do quite well. Where are you from?

I'm from the Phoenix area. I've thought about the White Mountians and Prescott. Both are nice places to live but both seem to have a lot of dentists. In fact, driving arround Phoenix it seems that the place is practically clogged with dentists. I've heard from some dentists that they don't seem to lack for patients but I've heard stories from friends and family about this dentist or that dentist who has just about gone bankrupt or is really struggeling.
 
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Now that I'm back from vacation and recovered from the major stomach flu that hit me while I was in Utah (needed 2 liters of IV lactated ringers solution and 25mg of Phenergan Friday night), I had a few posts (and PM's) for more states, so here comes all of the data I have in the same format:

State: Total # licensed dentists/% ADA members

AL: 1,789/77.8%
AK: 397/80.4%
AZ: 2,533/72,1%
AR: 1,050/82.0%
CA: 25,297/68.8%
CO: 2,821/82.2%
CT: 2,473/81.0%
DE: 338/94.1%
D of C: 588/69.1%
FL: 8,003/73.8%
GA: 3,804/74.5%
HI: 904/86.4%
ID: 765/85.6%
IL: 7,589/69.2%
IN: 2,756/82.2%
IO: 1.434/90.7%
KS:1,248/76.9%
KY: 2,146/70.0%
LA: 2,004/77.3%
ME: 616/93.3%
MD: 3,479/58.7%
MA: 4,717/84.3%
MI: 5,880/79.2%
MN: 2,952/83.3%
MS: 1,033/79.5%
MO: 2,535/73.5%
MN: 476/89.9%
NE: 1,024/79.3%
NV: 950/79.2%
NH: 735/85.7%
NJ: 6,219/60.7%
NM: 728/75.3%
NY: 13,709/73.8%
NC: 3,426/80.0%
ND: 304/90.5%
OH: 5,683/78.0%
OK: 1,605/79.8%
OR: 2,208/73,6%
PA: 7,151/63.6%
Puerto Rico: 1,406/19.6%
RI: 557/85.8%
SC: 1,750/82.5%
SD: 339/88.8%
TN: 2,706/73.7%
TX: 9,191/70.4%
UT: 1,274/96.3%
VT: 352/90.1%
Virgin Islands: 38/50.0%
VA: 3,698/72.5%
WA: 3,961/81.0%
WV: 831/77.4%
WI: 3,013/76.9%
WY: 251/88.5%
Air Force: 1,044/65.2%
Army: 974/55.2%
Civil Service: 194/78.9%
Navy: 1,246/58.5%
Public Health: 412/55.3%
Veterans Affairs: 590/50.5%
Dental Schools: 3,079/71.2%
Grad Students: 2,530/42.9%
provisonal Members: 79/65.8%
Umknown Addresses: 2,980/0.0%
International Members: 371/29.9%
Other District Members: 23/78.3%

TOTAL 176,063/71.4%(125,726)


There's the data I've got, unless of course you're from CT and are really bored, then I've also got the individual component societies and their numbers :rolleyes:
 

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that is sure alot of dentist in Cal. no wonder they don't want to make a national board.

i guess i am never living in cal :)