old_boy

Contrarian
10+ Year Member
Dec 8, 2006
202
41
Status
Attending Physician
I read on a blog the other day that EM physicians may temporarily see an increase in their incomes as a result of any new healthcare legislation that gets passed. This is unlikely to last, of course, as reimbursement rates are likely to fall across the board over time. But what do y'all think? With the caveat that in the long run incomes may fall, are EM docs likely to make out better than other specialties in the coming years and if so how much?

Rough prediction, just for fun:
- First few years a bump in the range of 10% net income for FFS gigs
- PCPs as a group (obviously there will be variations) might see bump of 5% owing to concurrent changes in medicare reimbursement schedule
- Specialists- drop of 10-20%

Within 10-15 years I predict we'll all be making 25% less in inflation adjusted dollars.
 

BKN

Senior Member
10+ Year Member
Oct 31, 2005
1,560
4
Rough prediction, just for fun:
- First few years a bump in the range of 10% net income for FFS gigs
- PCPs as a group (obviously there will be variations) might see bump of 5% owing to concurrent changes in medicare reimbursement schedule
- Specialists- drop of 10-20%

Within 10-15 years I predict we'll all be making 25% less in inflation adjusted dollars.
As with everything, the devil is in the details. I also can see scenarios where we might do very well until the number of Primary Care types increases. But not much point in predicting until the law is passed.
 

Jeff698

EM/EMS nerd
15+ Year Member
Aug 11, 2000
1,998
15
Salado, Texas
Status
Attending Physician
But not much point in predicting until the law is passed.
Amen.

It gets a bit tiring to hear people spouting forth, as though they have stone tablets in their hands, what the result of "reform" is going to be. There is no bill right now. We don't know what any final bill will look like. There's a reason writing law is likened to making sausage.

There is just far too much certainty expressed (almost always hellfire and brimstone) about this subject and not nearly enough doubt. We have no idea.

Feel free to opine on specific aspects or lack there of (notably liability reform) but, in the absence of a crystal ball, please stop pretending we know what is going to happen.

BTW, I'm not picking on the OP here.

Take care,
Jeff
 

GeneralVeers

Globus Hystericus
10+ Year Member
Mar 19, 2005
5,255
2,707
Las Vegas
Status
Attending Physician
BKN,

With all due respect, the time to discuss these issues, and put forth arguments and opinions is BEFORE the final bill takes shape. Once the bill is written and voted on by Congress it will be too late to express opinions and we will be stuck with the consquences. Due to the fact that any bill will contain a large amont of entitlements. It will be politically impossible to change it in the future.