Will Predicted Mass Exodus Increase Demand?

[Puppet Master]

In threads on SDN and polls like this one, a large percentage of physicians were wanting to leave medicine in the upcoming decade.

Do you think this will increase the demand and wages for new doctors?

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[Fah-Q]

No. It will just be a hole eagerly filled by cheaper alternatives (PA's and nurses). Physicians don't really have a place in the new world of "cost control" healthcare.

 

[smq123]

Moving to Topics in Healthcare.

 

[docB]

No.

I say that for several reasons.

Lots of docs say they want out (and they do) but getting out is very difficult. It's very hard to find a gig that pays a similar amount and even then most of us are not trained for anything but medicine. Throw in some loans and you're trapped.

Most places consider themselves "underserved." Most people feel it takes too long to get in to see a doctor and way too long to see a specialist. But those things have not led to increased pay. In fact we've seen the erosion of physician pay because demand is not the real driving force behind reimbursement.

If we were to see a real decline in the number of physicians it wouldn't result in higher pay. It would result in an even swifter take over of medicine by midlevels.

 

[MOHS_01]

No. Busy is busy. Full schedules are just that, full. Price fixing is BS.

 

[JackADeli]

...Lots of docs say they want out (and they do) but getting out is very difficult. It's very hard to find a gig that pays a similar amount and even then most of us are not trained for anything but medicine. Throw in some loans and you're trapped...

Agree. Physician pay has continued to be eroded. The malpractice issues have continued be unresolved. Numerous physicians had geared up for exodus within about 5 years.....Physicians in general have not been good at business. Add to this, the general "perfect storm" that has hit (and re-hit).

There was the day trading market crash that did hit a good number of physicians with big dreams of early retirement on a large nest egg. Think of it like Ted Nugent and his finances/advisors. It caused at the very least delays in their retirement plans in order to try and recoup their losses. Now, back to their 5yr or so plan, we had the recent economic fall, real estate collapse, and market collapse with 401Ks and other retirement vehicles loosing in many cases in excess of 50% of value. Still, erosion in physician pay, impending 23+/-% planned cut in physician reimbursements (i.e. gaming doctor fix) and now "Obama Care"....

Most physician missed their windows to parachute out in any style. You are going to continue to see numerous bitter physicians and the 65-70+ year old physicians accross all specialties will persist. I have seen numerous "senior" physicians trying to convince hospitals to transition them to highly paid business executives...... No deal. Most hospitals want the new, young, recently (formally educated) hard charging MBA that is accepting the $80k/yr as opposed to the 65+ year old physician that is looking for $200k+ for an "MD" degree and experience and non reimbursed capacity....

 

[Donkeykiss]

I don't know any recently graduated mbas that have any kind of major role in hospital admin, they are groomed for a while internally from other admin positions, maybe bounce around to other hospitals depending on how they do. Tough hours and big pay for the major CEO position. Hospitals are more run by nurses now in admin postions cause they aren't taking a paycut.