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Will this cycle be more competitive with the 50% increase of applicants due to covid-19

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Looks like there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their application this year compared to last year and over 78k registered for the MCAT on Thursday (the day we were glued to our computers for 10hrs). Are we looking at a very competitive cycle?
 
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DO2015CA

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its a big possibility. We saw a large increase in med school interest for the high school graduates of 09-10 because they were graduating during the recession. People are looking for recession proof careers. When there are hard times, people tend to look to medicine for a career.
 
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deleted963608

But it’s incredibly difficult to submit a well-rounded application in 3 months. Also I would have thought covid would have scared a few people away from medicine. But financial security could be a reason. I wonder if it’s because applicants were required to sit by their computers all day and maybe just decided to start their application at the same time.

Also I’m thinking that students are taking advantage of the shorten MCAT and plan to apply next year. Lol I actually don’t know. A 50% increase is crazy! Lol
 
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Mad Jack

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But it’s incredibly difficult to submit a well-rounded application in 3 months. Also I would have thought covid would have scared a few people away from medicine. But financial security could be a reason. I wonder if it’s because applicants were required to sit by their computers all day and maybe just decided to start their application at the same time.

Also I’m thinking that students are taking advantage of the shorten MCAT and plan to apply next year. Lol I actually don’t know. A 50% increase is crazy! Lol
They probably figure COVID will be over but medicine will be a solid career choice in the collapsing economy.
 
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deleted963608

They probably figure COVID will be over but medicine will be a solid career choice in the collapsing economy.
I can definitely understand that, it makes sense but initally the thought was many people wouldn’t be able to complete some of their EC activities and shadowing experiences due to the pandemic which meant less applicants for this cycle. But for that many people to suddenly decide to apply to medical school just to achieve a more stable career seems a bit wild. I wonder if their applications will be competitive enough if they are just deciding that medicine is the career for them. How have they had the time to develop a well rounded application in 3-4 months.

Or maybe this was the original size of the applicant pool who planned to apply this year. Just wasn’t expecting a 50% increase.
 

AnonymousDoctorGuyPerson

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They probably figure COVID will be over but medicine will be a solid career choice in the collapsing economy.

While this is certainly true, wouldnt this be a delayed reaction? The people applying this cycle more than likely made the decision to apply to med schools at least 2 years ago given the requirements (prereqs, MCAT, ECs, etc,). Not saying there hasnt been enough reason in the US to give the next generation concern over what career choice will be stable, but it seems itd be hard to pin that on COVID.
 
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Mad Jack

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While this is certainly true, wouldnt this be a delayed reaction? The people applying this cycle more than likely made the decision to apply to med schools at least 2 years ago given the requirements (prereqs, MCAT, ECs, etc,). Not saying there hasnt been enough reason in the US to give the next generation concern over what career choice will be stable, but it seems itd be hard to pin that on COVID.
We saw big jumps in the months after the 2008 recession. My bet is a lot of people are on the fence in any given year that don't apply due to better prospects elsewhere, but in this climate everyone tries to scramble on the medicine ship as quick as possible. A lot of these people probably don't have apps that compare to those that were sold from the beginning, but they likely figure it doesn't hurt to try.
 
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Zen Arcade

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Where did you see the 50% increase statistic? It’s possible a normal amount of people are applying, but more people are starting to fill out the application early because they have time. I could maybe see the recession compelling more people to apply, but in the end this will saturate the applicant pool with a bunch of under qualified applicants. You can’t just apply to med school without a year or two of solid extracurriculars and expect to do well... Another theory is that waitlist movement has been pushed back for the 2019-2020 cycle due to covid, so all the applicants who haven’t been accepted yet have started their reapplication.
 
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MDapplicant578124

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I’m willing to bet this was due to people having literally no other commitments so they could register their account within the first few days. (The stat OP is citing is that there were 50% more applications opened within the first 3 days than last year). I highly doubt once the total number of applicants comes to light it’s going to be 50% higher than last year.
 
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jfijiefjieji

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I believe last year, there was a large increase in applications started in the first three days as well. In the end, the amount of applicants stayed relatively flat. This 50 percent increase is not indicative of the final application count and is more likely to do with so many people being stuck at home right now.
 
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Looks like there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their application this year compared to last year and over 78k registered for the MCAT on Thursday (the day we were glued to our computers for 10hrs). Are we looking at a very competitive cycle?
Applying to med school becomes more competitive in bad economic times, so yes, it's going to me a much more competitive cycle. We saw this in 2001 after 9/11 and the tech bubble and in the Great Recession.
 
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glee123

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Lol will definitely not be more competitive. If anything , it will be less competitive due to applicants being driven away from medicine in spades, based on how docs were treated during COVID and people recognizing how much sacrifice really is involved. The 50% increase most likely includes a ton of people not planning to apply this cycle / capitalize on the "easier" MCAT.
 
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What about lack of volunteering an shadowing opportunities last two months and this summer?
That will be lethal, if they lack those ECs. COVID is no excuse for not doing what you're supposed to do over 4+ years of undergrad.
 
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barcafan97

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Looks like there was a 50% increase in the number of people who started their application this year compared to last year and over 78k registered for the MCAT on Thursday (the day we were glued to our computers for 10hrs). Are we looking at a very competitive cycle?
Where did you find these numbers?

Sent from my Moto G (4) using SDN mobile
 

TheDataKing

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I'm not sure I agree. If we look at historical data, there was a decrease in total applicants to med school following 9/11 and the number of applicants remained stagnant when the market crashed in '08 and then slowly went up from there. I wouldn't expect this cycle to be drastically changed due to economic reasons (though I could always be wrong and not see something as I'm no economist) Screen Shot 2020-05-11 at 8.02.36 PM.png
 
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DO2015CA

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I'm not sure I agree. If we look at historical data, there was a decrease in total applicants to med school following 9/11 and the number of applicants remained stagnant when the market crashed in '08 and then slowly went up from there. I wouldn't expect this cycle to be drastically changed due to economic reasons (though I could always be wrong and not see something as I'm no economist) View attachment 305957

True for actual qualified applicants because you need a delay for affected to create an app. Look at about 4 years after said event. Both start showing upticks. The difference is COVID is the first time people are being locked at home where people are just bored. Like said above, starting an app doesn't always lead to submission. So these people could just be curious and start an app. Then of course they will never follow through with it.
 

la flame

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I don't know how Covid19 or any recession right now could influence a 50% increase in applications. Someone who was a truck driver or a college student majoring in Finance at this very moment didn't suddenly take all his preqreqs+MCAT in a 3 month span to apply to medical school.

There is probably more applications because a good majority of students don't have jobs, EC's to do, no friends to hang out with, etc due to the coronavirus so they can spend all their time on creating an application on the first week it opened. If anything, I feel like this cycle will be LESS competitive because students haven't taken their MCAT (who knows if the new MCAT will be harder yet), EC's got cut short, and some premeds probably just don't have much money to apply to multiple schools given unemployment rates right now. I mean not everyone has $1000+ to fork up on med-school related stuff.
 
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I'm not sure I agree. If we look at historical data, there was a decrease in total applicants to med school following 9/11 and the number of applicants remained stagnant when the market crashed in '08 and then slowly went up from there. I wouldn't expect this cycle to be drastically changed due to economic reasons (though I could always be wrong and not see something as I'm no economist) View attachment 305957
Interesting figure. Keep in mind that both the tech bubble/9/11 and the 2008 real estate bubble crashes occurred in Sept, when the app season was already in full swing. the upticks occurred when the economy was already hurting, in the subsequent years.

But as of today, the crash has already occurred. I agree that it's an unknown if people will suddenly take the MCAT and already have those pre-reqs....but all Bio majors sure will have them. I'll let y'all know what going on at my school in July/August, when we'll have number in. So stay tuned!
 
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longbeakedechidna

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If a current applicant accidentally clicks the 2021 application cycle button by mistake when in AMCAS (perhaps speaking from experience...) it registers an application for you that you cannot yet withdraw. It seems pretty easy to make this mistake, and I'm willing to bet has happened quite a bit.
 
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lebjames2313

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The whole post-recession high school student theory aside (since so many things are up in the air for economy).
So what I had initially thought to the idea of late MCATs and cancellation of activities around Feb-June due to COVID was that there would be far fewer people applying. It is also true that the reapplicants may have started their apps for next year and could be lifted from that if they get an A (I am on that boat). There was a total of 53.7K apps in 2019, and we are not sure of 2020 yet, but we can estimate that to be 60K. Where is the statistic 73K registered MCAT test takers coming from? I mean 60-70% of applicants probably already have taken their MCAT, so why would there be a drastic jump? Especially if applicants do not know what they are going to get on the MCAT. App cycle, financially, is no joke. It does not make sense for people to be more willing to risk $2000+ if they do not have a desired score yet.
 

gonnif

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1) most applicants take MCAT in the spring/summer of the year they apply. Your assumption of 60-70% have already taken would appear wildly inflated in this MCAT delayed cycle
2) historically, total individuals taking MCAT is about 25% higher than total applicants (MD&DO) in any given cycle
3) this cycle will about 70,000 individuals will submit applications this cycle between MD & DO
4) I would imagine with the MCATdelayed, longer processing times with AMCAS, med schools issue policies to do initial eval without MCAT, many students are submitting primary with at least a throwaway school in order to get a jump on things
 
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