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To be completely honest, it sounds like you have the right idea. Your GPA and MCAT are likely to get you screened out at some MD schools, but there may be quite a few that give you a shot due to your athletic accomplishments. In fact, I would go so far as to say that given your upward trend and good MCAT along with your [well documented] athletic acumen, you may want to cast your line to a few more mid-tier schools to see if something sticks. In terms of MD for you, the more schools the better, and if you can afford it, feel free to put in a few applications to top tier schools.Yes, I am a world champion athlete. Up until COVID, I was even contending for a berth on the US Olympic team. I competed during all 4 years of college for a top DV1 NCAA program, including a team national championship and an individual silver medal at national championships. I am also one of the youngest athletes to win a national championship in my sport. In major part due to my intense training and competition schedule (I was literally traveling out of the country every other weekend!), my gpa is well below medical school averages and medians - 3.40 cumulative + 3.10 science. I do show an upward trajectory moving from a 3.09 (freshman) to a 3.56 (senior) annual cumulative GPA, and from a 2.33 (sophomore) to a 3.53 (senior) annual sGPA. I have a 508 on the MCAT. I also have strong clinical hours in ortho, anesthesiology, and some time with both a DO trauma surgeon and a DO internist. Each of these doctors wrote me a strong recommendation. There is a lot of conversation about the weight of competitive athletes. Leaving aside the "star" factor to which some schools may spark, the balancing of a truly intensive commitment to high level sports with premed academics at an elite university is extremely difficult. I have no problem with DO school. In fact, I think my temperament and goals are more suited for the DO path. Because of my lower GPAs, I am targeting MD schools solely on the basis of being at or above (or very close) to their 25th percentile for MCAT (I heard that being below the 25th percentile is almost always the kiss of death), and filtering out those with OSS admission rates below 40%. I applied the OSS filter to DOs, but ended up applying to about 2/3 of those. Any insights and suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
It's hard to say exactly how much your athletics will boost your application, but I'm pretty certain the boost will be substantial, so keep the schools you have, and aim higher with any additional ones you select.
The one thing I wanted to ask is if you have non-clinical volunteering and clinical experience (beyond shadowing). You didn't mention them, and given your seemingly high level of insight and awareness, I don't want just to assume they don't exist. If they don't you might be slightly hampered, though. I still think I would not change too much about your applications, though, and remember that you only need to get into one medical school to be a doctor.