DS Admissions-"Is we getting more competitive?"

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
doc toothache

doc toothache

Full Member
15+ Year Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2006
Messages
8,514
Reaction score
2,792
One of the most commonly used phraseology used to describe the ds admission is that is "getting more and more competitive". An objective way to assess whether or not the adjective is properly used is examine the available data as it relates number of applicants, number of enrollees, applicants/enrollees ratio or percentage of applicants enrolling, the mean AA and PAT scores as well as the overall and science gpas.

Applicants/Enrollees

The roughly 15% increase in the number of applicants seen from 2004 through 2007 appears to be a thing of the past. Although there was a 5% increase in 2011, the number of applicants has yet to recover from the precipitous drop in 2008. With a number of new dental school opening, there has been an increase in the percentage of applicants who are successful in gaining acceptance. The percentage of applicants gaining acceptance has increased from a low of ~35% in 2007 to ~ 41% for 2011. The applicant/enrollees ratio stands at 2.43. The highest ratio was in 2007 at 2.98; the lowest ratio was in 1990 at 1.23.

GPA/DAT

The available statistics for 2006-2011 was compiled for analysis. The highest score achieved for each individual ds is highlighted. While the national mean AA has been increasing for the last 4 application cycles, it is difficult to get excited over a .07 increase over 2007. Individual ds have not fared as well. There were 29 ds that showed a decrease in AA and 10 with no change.The national mean PAT increased by 0.53 points with 29 ds showing an increase.The national mean overall and sci gpa decreased by 0.01 point. The more telling story is that there were 38 and 39 schools, respectively, that showed a decrease.

The decrease in the number of applicants (increase in the percentage of applicants) gaining admission, the decrease in AA, overall gpa and science gpa from a previous high, seem to indicate that admission is getting less competitive rather than more competitive.
Members don't see this ad.
 

Attachments

  • Trends GPA-DAT2006-2011 SDN.xls
    64 KB · Views: 688
Last edited:
doc toothache said:
The decrease in the number of applicants and the increase in the percentage gaining admission and the decrease in AA, overall gpa and science gpa from a previous high, seem to indicate that admission is getting less competitive rather than more competitive.
Click to expand...

I'm too lazy/apathetic to check it but if it's true then it's too bad. We should be striving to have a more competitive pool of applicants, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction instead.

PS - The grammar in your title is incorrect.
 
Does the change in #'s mean that DS is getting less competitive or that the DS's are placing a higher emphasis on characteristics other than #'s?

I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Thank you for the in depth analysis Dr. T.

I look forward to hearing responses and further discussion of the topic.
 
Double Bonded said:
I'm too lazy/apathetic to check it but if it's true then it's too bad. We should be striving to have a more competitive pool of applicants, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction instead.

PS - The grammar in your title is incorrect.
Click to expand...

I think that was on purpose... I think lol
 
USC making stridess. Atleast in GPA/DAT department hah. Looks like the continuing increasing trend of GPA/DAT isn't sustainable.

BTW, I always wondered what would happen if one year, someone stole doc toothache's fire and posted the ADEA stats before he did lol.
 
Should be interesting to see next year's data, and see what trends are going on.
 
white fang said:
Does the change in #'s mean that DS is getting less competitive or that the DS's are placing a higher emphasis on characteristics other than #'s?

I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question.
Click to expand...

I think doc does "....there has been an increase in the percentage of applicants who are successful in gaining acceptance" That means we is getting less competitive.
 
Really nice work doc toothache!

Excellent use statistics! But I think (as you revealed with your data analysis) with a majority of the highest distributions of AA scores lying in the right end of the bell curve, the top dental schools will only be tougher and tougher to gain admission into every year; probably never easier as the # of SDs get smaller. Newer schools, as you had mentioned, will skew the statistical data.
 
I wish someone, who has the time, could plot all this data out graphically with a line of best fit. Then those trends should become really apparent. But judging from the data, looks like the number of applicants are saturating, peaking at about 12K now.
 
Last edited:
funny thread similar to what I was saying that even if it did get more competitive these numbers are shifted by small % and hence it doesnt matter. Obv the moral of the story is high stats = higher shot of admissions, But when averages vary from a 3.45 to a 3.49, that's not making or breaking anyones shots at d-school.
 
Woah, Emil Chuck, Ph.D. just called out doc toothache. No one ever calls out the doc.

THIS should be interesting.

anyways, statistics are 56% correct only about 67% of the time.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
i couldn't download that recruitment ppt :(
it's just a blank slide! maybe its just me haha
 
littlemisspiggy said:
i couldn't download that recruitment ppt :(
it's just a blank slide! maybe its just me haha
Click to expand...


Mine opens in Adobe Presenter. This is the slide I assume is being referred to:

picture.php


I'm pretty sure the stats Doc uses are from the ADEA guides. So if anyone is being "called out", it's the very publication that Dr. Chuck suggested pre-dents hit up their pre-health advisor's office for if they're too cheap to buy one themselves.
 
Last edited:
wired202808 said:
funny thread similar to what I was saying that even if it did get more competitive these numbers are shifted by small % and hence it doesnt matter. Obv the moral of the story is high stats = higher shot of admissions, But when averages vary from a 3.45 to a 3.49, that's not making or breaking anyones shots at d-school.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I have to concur. I took a closer look at the numbers and they don't seem to change that much from year to year in statistical terms. I know that a 0.5 even makes a big deal on the DAT but when they're averages, I think we can accept some leeway due to statistical variations from year to year. In looking at the trends for this past decade, I would say that there has been an increase in the trends of dental school applicant stats.
 
It would be interesting to see if competition is increasing on a smaller scale, such as state by state...I do believe that some states have It better than others.
 
Double Bonded said:
I'm too lazy/apathetic to check it but if it's true then it's too bad. We should be striving to have a more competitive pool of applicants, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction instead.
PS - The grammar in your title is incorrect.
Click to expand...

Which direction we should be moving is a matter of perspective. An applicant would certainly hope for a less competitive pool. Oh, and grammar was not in the ds curriculum.

qkchen said:
Should be interesting to see next year's data, and see what trends are going on.
Click to expand...

History has a nasty habit of repeating itself.

SocietysDentist said:
Really nice work doc toothache!
Excellent use statistics! But I think (as you revealed with your data analysis) with a majority of the highest distributions of AA scores lying in the right end of the bell curve, the top dental schools will only be tougher and tougher to gain admission into every year; probably never easier as the # of SDs get smaller. Newer schools, as you had mentioned, will skew the statistical data.
Click to expand...

How competitive admission are or will be is a function of the number of applicants. The higher the number for applicans, the higher the number of applicants available from the right side of the Bell curve.
 
doc toothache said:
It will be interesting to see how long you will be scratching your head before you figure this one out.
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand. "It clearly wasn't" meant that grammar clearly wasn't covered in your curriculum or else the title would be correct. :D
 
Interesting topic.

Double Bonded said:
I don't think you understand. "It clearly wasn't" meant that grammar clearly wasn't covered in your curriculum or else the title would be correct. :D
Click to expand...

There's a word called "sarcasm".
 
we is getting EZ to gain admishion

haha yeah right, maybe in 1990 though. Doc, do you blame part of this on NCLB?
 
casedentalmed said:
I need to check the source of your numbers. I can say that the numbers you have do not coincide with the official numbers we keep in our office. In my recruiting presentation, which does show the official averages for each of the last 8 incoming classes, there is definitely a rising trend.
Click to expand...

You certainly could have checked "the source" before posting your response. Perhaps, this was a case best handled by shoot first and ask questions later. You pronounced the figures in the Excell file as inaccurate, although you did not provide any specifics on the erroneous information. Since your infomercial does not include a slide on the gpa, the presumption is that you are referring to the AA and PAT scores. The information presented by ADEA appears to represent a fairly accurate representation of the information found in your Slide 3. Admittedly, since your graph only shows 3 points for each graph with actual numbers, the remaining 5 points are rough estimates. While you claim a "rising trend", presumably, from the graduating class of 2008 to 2015, for AA, your own graph shows an increase from 2008 to 2011 followed by a decrease for 2012 and 2013 and an increase for 2014 and 2015. Similarly, for PAT, the graph shows an increase from 2008/2009 to 2013, a decrease in 2014 and an increase for 2015. The evidence suggests that there is not a single dental school in the country that can make the claim to have each year's statistic higher than the previous year; save Western, whose record is barely 3 years.
 
doc toothache said:
You certainly could have checked "the source" before posting your response. Perhaps, this was a case best handled by shoot first and ask questions later. You pronounced the figures in the Excell file as inaccurate, although you did not provide any specifics on the erroneous information. Since your infomercial does not include a slide on the gpa, the presumption is that you are referring to the AA and PAT scores. The information presented by ADEA appears to represent a fairly accurate representation of the information found in your Slide 3. Admittedly, since your graph only shows 3 points for each graph with actual numbers, the remaining 5 points are rough estimates. While you claim a "rising trend", presumably, from the graduating class of 2008 to 2015, for AA, your own graph shows an increase from 2008 to 2011 followed by a decrease for 2012 and 2013 and an increase for 2014 and 2015. Similarly, for PAT, the graph shows an increase from 2008/2009 to 2013, a decrease in 2014 and an increase for 2015. The evidence suggests that there is not a single dental school in the country that can make the claim to have each year's statistic higher than the previous year; save Western, whose record is barely 3 years.
Click to expand...

Perhaps you are talking to the source?

In all seriousness, I believe it is getting harder to gain admission. More and more people are becoming interested in dentistry and the numbers you present fluctuate up and down just like in any other admissions program. Also, numbers are not everything and I believe ADCOMS are beginning to accept more and more well rounded applicants instead of just looking at a number on a piece of paper.
 
I agree with doc that admissions getting more competitive is just a slight trend or no change at all. Perhaps people have become more competitive, though. With the advent of web resources like student doctor network, etc. people are bound to seek more opportunities for their application. My two family dentists said back in the late 80's that they did well on the DAT, but didn't care much for research or shadowing because they knew they would get into dental school. I feel like, if anything, the application is more holistic now with a focus on things beside GPA and DAT scores.
 
So we have the doc submitting analysis based on widely read, presumably factual information, and a thread full of some people submitting speculative explanations to qualify his degree of correctness. :D If there's a discrepancy in the factual information from multiple sources, that's not exactly the doc's problem. Also, a change in the definition of a qualified student does not make it more competitive when there is little to no change in the applicant pool. If there are 10 people and they are always taking 4, the 4 that most meet their criteria for admission are most likely to be admitted.
 
As long as the data is legit then the perceived notion of increase competitiveness is simply a case of SDNitis. We have a ton of smart applicants but that doesn't imply that the rest of the applicants are on our level. Majority of non-SDNers are probably below and hence are the ones that get rejected. As based on plenty of other statistical data the averages are jumping around ever so slightly. I think any student with a 3.5 to 3.6 and above with a 20AA is competitive enough to get into a few schools, I believe this was enough a few years ago and it still is. When you start to argue over .03 differences in GPA, DAT, etc. you are essentially splitting hairs. Are some schools prospectively more competitive than before? Yes, as evidenced by docs data. But are ALL schools more competitive than before? NO. Hence its save to say that if you spray and pray, you'll get into at least one school. While this may or may not be a good thing, it does guarantee a DDS degree and a career.
 
FLOSS UR TEETH said:
Perhaps you are talking to the source?

In all seriousness, I believe it is getting harder to gain admission. More and more people are becoming interested in dentistry and the numbers you present fluctuate up and down just like in any other admissions program. Also, numbers are not everything and I believe ADCOMS are beginning to accept more and more well rounded applicants instead of just looking at a number on a piece of paper.
Click to expand...

:confused: You claim there are more people becoming interested in dentistry, but the data clearly shows a decrease in the number of applicants.

There's only one logical conclusion. That conclusion is that it does not seem that OVERALL D-school competition is increasing.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Talked to a dean of admissions a year or two ago that pretty much said the same thing as doc. I believe it.
 
iralex801 said:
:confused: You claim there are more people becoming interested in dentistry, but the data clearly shows a decrease in the number of applicants.

There's only one logical conclusion. That conclusion is that it does not seem that OVERALL D-school competition is increasing.
Click to expand...

Iralex for the win!
 
iralex801 said:
:confused: You claim there are more people becoming interested in dentistry, but the data clearly shows a decrease in the number of applicants.

There's only one logical conclusion. That conclusion is that it does not seem that OVERALL D-school competition is increasing.
Click to expand...

From a strict numbers standpoint, this thread is probably right in saying that fewer people are applying. From a non-numbers standpoint, the quality of applicant certainly could be increasing. This is like saying that there can't be fluctuations in the competitiveness of the MLB when there is approximately the same number of players in the league every year. Progress in how students learn, manage their time, and respond to other undergraduate competitors leads to applicants who are motivated to go the extra mile, and get the extra edge. If I'm trying to "win" something, I'd rather compete with 500 bozos than 10 highly qualified individuals. And yes, I realize that in the end it is a numbers game, and x out of y applicants can ultimately be accepted, but all y applicants are getting more competitive over time.
 
itsallabout18 said:
From a strict numbers standpoint, this thread is probably right in saying that fewer people are applying. From a non-numbers standpoint, the quality of applicant certainly could be increasing. This is like saying that there can't be fluctuations in the competitiveness of the MLB when there is approximately the same number of players in the league every year. Progress in how students learn, manage their time, and respond to other undergraduate competitors leads to applicants who are motivated to go the extra mile, and get the extra edge. If I'm trying to "win" something, I'd rather compete with 500 bozos than 10 highly qualified individuals. And yes, I realize that in the end it is a numbers game, and x out of y applicants can ultimately be accepted, but all y applicants are getting more competitive over time.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if its right to explain objective data with subjective feelings. The data is pretty clear, it shows a decrease all across the board. It might be more competitive to go to school X, but on average its less competitive for all schools. Hence if you have high stats and apply broadly your chances of getting in are higher now then they were in the past.
 
itsallabout18 said:
From a strict numbers standpoint, this thread is probably right in saying that fewer people are applying. From a non-numbers standpoint, the quality of applicant certainly could be increasing. This is like saying that there can't be fluctuations in the competitiveness of the MLB when there is approximately the same number of players in the league every year. Progress in how students learn, manage their time, and respond to other undergraduate competitors leads to applicants who are motivated to go the extra mile, and get the extra edge. If I'm trying to "win" something, I'd rather compete with 500 bozos than 10 highly qualified individuals. And yes, I realize that in the end it is a numbers game, and x out of y applicants can ultimately be accepted, but all y applicants are getting more competitive over time.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree with you if you're looking for possible reasons that this data might infer the wrong conclusion and d-school competitiveness may indeed be increasing. In the end though, you can't draw conclusions on "possible" reasons that can't be measured/confirmed.

I'm just stating the only logical conclusion the data presents if your strictly looking at the numbers holding everything else constant.
 
Well, its a fact that health professional schools are increasingly taking into account the "human" aspect of the applicants. Such as circumstances, experiences, extra-curriculars, community service, interview performance etc. There was an article published by AAMC regarding the fact that med school admissions is more than just numbers, and how there are other crucial factors such as interview and community service. Now, its important to note this article was not referring to dental schools, but I would believe this mindset of med school adcoms would be similar to that of d-school adcoms. Obviously we can not accurately quantify these "experiences" therefore, it is inaccurate to assume that competiveness is completely related to numbers (GPA, DATs).

Here is one excerpt from the article:

"For example, approximately eight percent of applicants with UGPAs ranging from 3.80 to 4.00 and MCAT total scores ranging from 39 to 45 were rejected by all of the medical schools to which they applied. In contrast, about 18 percent of applicants with UGPAs ranging from 3.20 to 3.39 and MCAT scores ranging from 24 to 26 were accepted by at least one school"

Here is the attached article
 

Attachments

  • Admissions%20Data%20Analysis-10--6-11[1].pdf
    193.3 KB · Views: 81
casedentalmed said:
I need to check the source of your numbers. I can say that the numbers you have do not coincide with the official numbers we keep in our office. In my recruiting presentation, which does show the official averages for each of the last 8 incoming classes, there is definitely a rising trend.
Click to expand...

Are yous still checking those numbers?
 
Based on a 5 year trend it seems that things have stabilized with very little increase/decrease in the metrics.

However, admission is still competitive, and when considering the long term trends, admission standards are definitely increasing. Choosing an outlier like 2007 and then claiming easing standards (by decimals) since, can be misleading without examining a longer period.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Next unread thread

Similar threads

doc toothache
2022 Gender-Race-Ethnicity-How competitive are we?
Replies
14
Views
1K
D1Bound
D1Bound
P
Masters/PostBacc or apply more broadly?
Replies
11
Views
237
Mr.Smile12
Mr.Smile12
T
  • Question
Dental Admissions Advice
Replies
11
Views
1K
Mr.Smile12
Mr.Smile12
P
What does admissions like to see?
Replies
6
Views
843
Ryxndek
Ryxndek
doc toothache
Ranking of DS Based on Applications Considered
Replies
5
Views
786
gcdent
G
Top