UWSA 1..how much does it OVERESTIMATE?

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NoWayOut

NoWayOut

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Hey everyone...
I wanna give UWSA 1 a try in a week or so to figure out where I stand for now and was wondering by how much does the UWSA 1 and 2 OVERESTIMATE? From your scores on UWSA and the actual score, can you give me an approxiamtion? Thank you.
 
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NoWayOut said:
Hey everyone...
I wanna give UWSA 1 a try in a week or so to figure out where I stand for now and was wondering by how much does the UWSA 1 and 2 OVERESTIMATE? From your scores on UWSA and the actual score, can you give me an approxiamtion? Thank you.
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Diff experiences for everyone but my UWSA and NBME scores were pretty similar. I took UWSA2 and NBME7 5 days before my exam. UWSA2 was 2 pts higher than my real score, and NBME7 was 4 pts higher.

Did UWSA1 a little less than halfway thru my dedicated study period and it was 8 pts lower than my real score
 
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NoWayOut said:
Hey everyone...
I wanna give UWSA 1 a try in a week or so to figure out where I stand for now and was wondering by how much does the UWSA 1 and 2 OVERESTIMATE? From your scores on UWSA and the actual score, can you give me an approxiamtion? Thank you.
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I'm pretty confident UWSA1 underestimated my score. I took it a month after I took an NBME and I got the exact same score. I took UWSA2 about 4 weeks after that and jumped up 38 points. So I think UWSA1 underestimated me by 10-20 points at that time. Though I had a horrible headache through UWSA1 and BOMBED the last section.

My point is that I think everyone has strengths and weaknesses. So it may under or overestimate you.
 
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USWA 1 - 3 weeks out...18 pts lower than real thing
USWA 2 - 1 week out...exactly the same as the real thing
 
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UWSA 1 - two weeks out - 2 points lower than the real thing
UWSA 2 - one week out - exactly the same
 
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UWSA1 (2 weeks out) = 3 points below actual score
UWSA2 (1 week out) = 4 points above actual score
 
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I think what you can gather from this thread is that it may not always be exact, but it's well within the range of standard error. I took UWSA1 about three weeks into my dedicated study period and it was only 5 points higher than NBME6 which I took at the very beginning.. I took UWSA2 about 4.5 weeks in (a few days before my test) - it had climbed 20 points over UWSA1 and it ended up being 8 points lower than the real thing.

In summary- for some people it'll probably be a little higher, for some a little lower.. some people will think UWSA1 is easier and some may think UWSA2 is easier. I personally felt like UWSA1 underestimated and THOUGHT UWSA2 overestimated, but I was obviously wrong about at least the latter.
 
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My actual score was in between UWSA1 and UWSA2.

UWSA1 (4 weeks before) - 12 points lower than actual score
UWSA2 (2 weeks beofre) - 4 points higher than actual score
 
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UWSA1 = 2 points higher than real NBME, 3 weeks out
UWSA2 = 8 points higher than real NBME, 2 days out
 
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UWSA1 was dead on for me at 254. WhiCh was good, except that was with over three weeks left to study. Based on more recent practice exams and my UW percentage, I likely should've been able to score about 10 points higher. But at that point, a ten point swing is totally wnl.
 
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UWSA #2 4 weeks out was 2 higher, UWSA #1 3 weeks out was 13 lower and NBME #6 2 weeks out was 6 lower than what I scored. I think it's a mistake to assume that the UWSAs will overestimate your score even if you're scoring pretty high. Mileage may vary.
 
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NYCOMDO said:
UWAA1 (1.5 weeks out) 247
UWSA2 (.5 weeks out) 234

Actual- 248
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Everytime I see someone score way higher on the real test than UWSA2 I get excited/nervous. Congrats on the awesome score. Hopefully I will have good news today...... :xf:
 
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The numbers:

(All UW sets were 50 questions, random, 1st time through, did the vast majority of questions between UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 which was ~ 2.5 week period)

UW Overall (1600 questions, ~30% remaining): 72%
UW Last 1450: 74%
UW Last 1250: 75%
UW Last 750: 76%
UW Last 500: 78.5%

NBME 1 (Pre-studying): 214
NBME 6: 229
UWSA 2: 244
UWSA 2 (few days before): 244

REAL DEAL: 254

UWSA underestimated me by 10 points (but I was kinda having a freak out while taking it). Congrats to everyone getting this thing done!
 
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HopefulDoc2007 said:
The numbers:

(All UW sets were 50 questions, random, 1st time through, did the vast majority of questions between UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 which was ~ 2.5 week period)

UW Overall (1600 questions, ~30% remaining): 72%
UW Last 1450: 74%
UW Last 1250: 75%
UW Last 750: 76%
UW Last 500: 78.5%

NBME 1 (Pre-studying): 214
NBME 6: 229
UWSA 2: 244
UWSA 2 (few days before): 244

REAL DEAL: 254

UWSA underestimated me by 10 points (but I was kinda having a freak out while taking it). Congrats to everyone getting this thing done!
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You had a freak out while taking the UWSA, but were able to calm down and collect yourself for the real exam? That's awesome.
 
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TexasTriathlete said:
You had a freak out while taking the UWSA, but were able to calm down and collect yourself for the real exam? That's awesome.
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Thanks! I really feel like that is one of the best things about taking practice exams. I freaked out and it still worked out; so when I was taking the real test I knew even if I hit a rough patch it was probably going fine. Helps to keep the anxiety from affecting other parts of the test that might be easier.
 
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I just took UWSA 1 and it projects a 232 for me, with just less than 3 weeks to go.

I know I can do better than that. I'd been studying all day and brain was pretty fried.

I know my concepts. I just need to do more memorization.

But was that test hard as **** or what? I ended every single block thinking I got like 30% right. Holy crap that thing was a kick in the nuts.
 
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I seriously felt like I had no clue what they were even talking about on like half the questions. It was stuff like...

"A researcher creates a transgenic mouse that has been altered to have three eyes and green hair. The protein most likely mutated in this mouse would have what effect in the human kidney of a CHF patient, if it was altered to be activated by high levels of BNP?"

You spend about 20 seconds on each question just drooling on yourself and thinking "what the ****???" before you finally figure out what it is they're even trying to ask. Once you figure that out, the questions I guess aren't that hard.
 
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HopefulDoc2007 said:
The numbers:

(All UW sets were 50 questions, random, 1st time through, did the vast majority of questions between UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 which was ~ 2.5 week period)

UW Overall (1600 questions, ~30% remaining): 72%
UW Last 1450: 74%
UW Last 1250: 75%
UW Last 750: 76%
UW Last 500: 78.5%

NBME 1 (Pre-studying): 214
NBME 6: 229
UWSA 2: 244
UWSA 2 (few days before): 244

REAL DEAL: 254

UWSA underestimated me by 10 points (but I was kinda having a freak out while taking it). Congrats to everyone getting this thing done!
Click to expand...

Congrats to you! Thats an amazing score!
 
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TexasTriathlete said:
I seriously felt like I had no clue what they were even talking about on like half the questions. It was stuff like...

"A researcher creates a transgenic mouse that has been altered to have three eyes and green hair. The protein most likely mutated in this mouse would have what effect in the human kidney of a CHF patient, if it was altered to be activated by high levels of BNP?"

You spend about 20 seconds on each question just drooling on yourself and thinking "what the ****???" before you finally figure out what it is they're even trying to ask. Once you figure that out, the questions I guess aren't that hard.
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OMG.. I was thinking "what the ****???" just reading that !! I still don't get it. Any clue to the answer?
 
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UWSA1: 258 (About a week or 2 before)
UWSA2: 265 (Few days before)

Real Deal: 264

I definitely felt like the actual exam was very similar to the UWSA's in terms of difficulty
 
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NBME underestimated me by around 10 points. UWSA was about spot on. I think it's predictive ability is +/- 5, if you take it within a week of your exam.
 
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knuckles said:
NBME underestimated me by around 10 points. UWSA was about spot on. I think it's predictive ability is +/- 5, if you take it within a week of your exam.
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uwsa 1 underestimated by 13 points (2 weeks out) and uwsa 2 overestimated by 8 points (1 week out). free nbme 150 was only 2 points off (1 week out).

got a 250
 
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interesting responses and how dead on they were... compared to many people who took it in 2011
 
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hyrule said:
interesting responses and how dead on they were... compared to many people who took it in 2011
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Keep in mind that when you take it is just as big a factor as how you get. A score in the last week of studying is gonna be very different from a score in the first week of studying obviously.
 
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NBME 3 (2 months before) - 202
UWSA 1 (3 weeks before) - 250
NBME 7 (2 weeks before) - 242
UWSA 2 (3 days before) - 260

Real thing - 240+

IMO, nothing beats the NBME practice tests. UWSA 1 and 2 give a good ballpark assessment of where you are, but considering getting ~80% correct corresponds to a 260 it's not a very good simulation for the real thing. This means that getting every single hard question right and making a bunch of mistakes answering easier questions could give you the same high score. I got ~88% of the questions right on NBME 7 for a 242, so there was much less room for error.
 
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pazan said:
NBME 3 (2 months before) - 202
UWSA 1 (3 weeks before) - 250
NBME 7 (2 weeks before) - 242
UWSA 2 (3 days before) - 260

Real thing - 248

IMO, nothing beats the NBME practice tests. UWSA 1 and 2 give a good ballpark assessment of where you are, but considering getting ~80% correct corresponds to a 260 it's not a very good simulation for the real thing. This means that getting every single hard question right and making a bunch of mistakes answering easier questions could give you the same high score. I got ~88% of the questions right on NBME 7 for a 242, so there was much less room for error.
Click to expand...

In all fairness, the real exam varies a lot as to how many questions percentage wise you have to get right. I think personally the NBMEs are much harsher than the "real" curve for the real exam.
 
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hyrule said:
interesting responses and how dead on they were... compared to many people who took it in 2011
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Has the general trend for 2011 been that UWSA1 OVERESTIMATES the scores but for 2010 it was accurate? My NBME 6 last week was a 224. Today my UWSA1 is a 242. Do you guys think I'm not truly in the 240 range yet?
 
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pullandbear said:
Has the general trend for 2011 been that UWSA1 OVERESTIMATES the scores but for 2010 it was accurate? My NBME 6 last week was a 224. Today my UWSA1 is a 242. Do you guys think I'm not truly in the 240 range yet?
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I've heard that Uworld SA overshoot by about 10 points. I'm a little encouraged by this thread, and seeing how accurate the Uworld SA were for students taking the exam last year. I'm wondering why, if at all, the correlation would change between Uworld and the real Step 1 from year to year.
 
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Fillabuster said:
I've heard that Uworld SA overshoot by about 10 points. I'm a little encouraged by this thread, and seeing how accurate the Uworld SA were for students taking the exam last year. I'm wondering why, if at all, the correlation would change between Uworld and the real Step 1 from year to year.
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Yeah me too. Maybe Hyrule meant to say 2009 instead of 2011. Because we haven't really gotten back THAT many scores yet in 2011 to make that type of a statement.
 
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haven't taken the exam yet, but after completing UW you begin to see their questions 'style'. for that reason, i really think it matters when the UWSA is taken. In the beginning, it's probably more accurate. If it's your last week and you've been through UW x2 + incorrects x5...then you probably know their question style.
 
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Day man said:
haven't taken the exam yet, but after completing UW you begin to see their questions 'style'. for that reason, i really think it matters when the UWSA is taken. In the beginning, it's probably more accurate. If it's your last week and you've been through UW x2 + incorrects x5...then you probably know their question style.
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lol, well put
 
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bumping this to get any more thoughts on how accurate the UWSA 1 is...

I took it yesterday and got a 250 (this is NOT to brag) and I was sitting there, staring at it, thinking that there is no way on earth that is accurate. It's got to be super inflated.

for reference, took nbme 7 two weeks ago and got a 214 (I made a few stupid/not paying attention mistakes, I really should have gotten more like a 220). there is no way I made that much of a jump in a few weeks, right?
 
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beachblonde said:
bumping this to get any more thoughts on how accurate the UWSA 1 is...

I took it yesterday and got a 250 (this is NOT to brag) and I was sitting there, staring at it, thinking that there is no way on earth that is accurate. It's got to be super inflated.

for reference, took nbme 7 two weeks ago and got a 214 (I made a few stupid/not paying attention mistakes, I really should have gotten more like a 220). there is no way I made that much of a jump in a few weeks, right?
Click to expand...

Yeah, my NBMEs and UWSAs are showing a similar discrepancy. I think the only way to know for sure what is overestimating and what is underestimating is to wait until more scores come out....sounds like that won't be until July. So right now it's just a bit of guesswork.

Scubastarved's experience did seem to validate that NBMEs 11 and 12 were the best predictors.

I am in a similar position in that I'm going into the test knowing that I will probably make between a 221 and a 244......that's...quite the range, eh?
 
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I don't think the NBME people even know what they are going to do, curve wise, as they are trying to see how 20k people perform on the "newly modified" exam before they assign a new curve to it.

Just as always, there will be the same bell curve, even if we all score a lower percent on the real deal.
 
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beachblonde said:
bumping this to get any more thoughts on how accurate the UWSA 1 is...

I took it yesterday and got a 250 (this is NOT to brag) and I was sitting there, staring at it, thinking that there is no way on earth that is accurate. It's got to be super inflated.

for reference, took nbme 7 two weeks ago and got a 214 (I made a few stupid/not paying attention mistakes, I really should have gotten more like a 220). there is no way I made that much of a jump in a few weeks, right?
Click to expand...

I'm in the exact same boat as you. Took UWSA 1 and got a 230 in March, took NBME 6 and got a 220ish a little less than 2 weeks ago(which was after I studied near 8 hours, so that may have skewed it too 😛 ).

JUST got done taking UWSA and got a 258 estimate. I just plan on studying like I'm on the cusp of failure, taking the exam and seeing where things land.
 
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I mentioned this in the scores thread, but might as well answer it here.

UWSA1 overshot by 3
UWSA2 overshot by 6

Some of my classmates has their estimates overshoot by 10+, which sucks for them. 🙁
 
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MossPoh said:
I'm in the exact same boat as you. Took UWSA 1 and got a 230 in March, took NBME 6 and got a 220ish a little less than 2 weeks ago(which was after I studied near 8 hours, so that may have skewed it too 😛 ).

JUST got done taking UWSA and got a 258 estimate. I just plan on studying like I'm on the cusp of failure, taking the exam and seeing where things land.
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yeah I took nbme 7 after watching the day's DIT videos, which was perhaps a bad choice. I have the same philosophy though: study as much as I can and hope for the best.

49ers said:
I mentioned this in the scores thread, but might as well answer it here.

UWSA1 overshot by 3
UWSA2 overshot by 6

Some of my classmates has their estimates overshoot by 10+, which sucks for them. 🙁
Click to expand...

thanks. I stay away from the scores thread because it freaks me out. :meanie:

(but I would take a 10 pt overshoot, 240 is higher than I am realistically shooting for!)
 
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49ers said:
I mentioned this in the scores thread, but might as well answer it here.

UWSA1 overshot by 3
UWSA2 overshot by 6

Some of my classmates has their estimates overshoot by 10+, which sucks for them. 🙁
Click to expand...

This makes me sad. Got a a 242 on uwsa1 and 244 on uwsa2. Guess I'm actually in the 230's then.....
 
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pullandbear said:
Sad isn't the right word. Just unhappy I'm not where I thought I was. My goal is over 240. 230s is by no means bad though
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Haha, yeah I was shooting for 240s, too, now I figure I'm solidly in the 230s. But you know, honestly, at this point I feel like it's like that facebook option for looking for. "Whatever I can get".

😳
 
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49ers said:
Uh...you would be sad with something in the 230s? Seriously? Wow.
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Why is that a bad thing? Some of us on here are trying to get residencies in specific cities and specialties, both of which tend to require more competitive scores.

There's no shame in wanting to get something over a 240 and being disappointed with something less than that.
 
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The people who it overshot on may be more likely to be more vocal about it. That being said, +/- 6 or even 10 isn't really that bad depending on where your score is. In the 1 standard deviation range, it would probably be more questions than above that.

The score on the real thing versus any assessment is all about how the wind blows on each day. Some people are capable of performing well, regardless of the location. Others may get a little antsy in the fog of war and make mistakes they wouldn't have in a nice comfortable location on their own computer. We can't simply assume that every person performs with equal proficiency with total disregard of stress levels, sleep, computers, people around them, noises, test anxiety, a nice bottle of scotch waiting for them at home, etc. There are far more things that can throw you off your game and drop your score than can raise it.
 
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