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- Thread starter lionWushi
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There are some cultures where it's a top priority to become a Physician even if you have to accumulate massive amounts of debt. A family friend said "I don't care if it takes 25 years and $700k. My kids are going to become Physicians." For some people the cost isn't even a consideration.
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It's going to be hilariously expensive. Won't stop people for going, though.
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Well yes, there is a point.
When the cost of a product becomes overpried relative to the actual value it provides the customer then the system becomes unsustainable and eventually bursts.
This phenomenon is called a "bubble".
Medical education is nowhere near close to approaching a bubble. It still makes complete financial sense to become a physician, even at 300k debt. In fact, I think the current ROI is one million dollars, on average, so medical debt can safely ascend to about 1.2 million and still be "fairly priced". Beyond that point, in today's dollars, it will no longer make financial sense to get a medical education, the bubble bursts, demand drops, and prices must go down. However, this is purely in monetary terms. In terms of opportunity cost - time, effort, sacrifice - the bar is realistically much lower, I imagine 400-500k is the soft cap here.
The bigger threat to medical education is residency spots. The ROI of a medical education is so good because job placement is almost guaranteed, however, if that fact was ever compromised then the bubble could come at a mucj lower price. Considering there is a physician shortage coming up residency spots must increase, otherwise you will this awkward period in the next decade or two where the bar of entry into medicine - not to mention the cost - steadily rise as job prospects spiral downwards. It would be a unique economic problem since there would be both a glut of people with the skills to fill the physician-deficit but a non-moving job pool. Competition for residency match increases and, with it, physician demand in pay. That demand could surely never be met and then the system would suffer a two-fold collapse.
It sounds a bit alarmist but not increasing residency slots to the need of the population is, for the lack of a better term, a ****ty plan.
When the cost of a product becomes overpried relative to the actual value it provides the customer then the system becomes unsustainable and eventually bursts.
This phenomenon is called a "bubble".
Medical education is nowhere near close to approaching a bubble. It still makes complete financial sense to become a physician, even at 300k debt. In fact, I think the current ROI is one million dollars, on average, so medical debt can safely ascend to about 1.2 million and still be "fairly priced". Beyond that point, in today's dollars, it will no longer make financial sense to get a medical education, the bubble bursts, demand drops, and prices must go down. However, this is purely in monetary terms. In terms of opportunity cost - time, effort, sacrifice - the bar is realistically much lower, I imagine 400-500k is the soft cap here.
The bigger threat to medical education is residency spots. The ROI of a medical education is so good because job placement is almost guaranteed, however, if that fact was ever compromised then the bubble could come at a mucj lower price. Considering there is a physician shortage coming up residency spots must increase, otherwise you will this awkward period in the next decade or two where the bar of entry into medicine - not to mention the cost - steadily rise as job prospects spiral downwards. It would be a unique economic problem since there would be both a glut of people with the skills to fill the physician-deficit but a non-moving job pool. Competition for residency match increases and, with it, physician demand in pay. That demand could surely never be met and then the system would suffer a two-fold collapse.
It sounds a bit alarmist but not increasing residency slots to the need of the population is, for the lack of a better term, a ****ty plan.
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The "shortage of doctors" is going to easily be solved by giving nurse practitioners full scope of practice. They have been lobbying for this forever and currently already can practice without supervision in certain rural areas.
As unfortunate as it is, that's really the laziest/easiest way for the government to solve the "doctor shortage" by 2020... and the gov usually picks the lazy way to do things.
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"Shortage of doctors" lol that's just propaganda so that they can inflate the numbers and take away our power. There's a reason why CMS pays hospitals a lot more than a private office for the same procedure. They're trying to corral us all into one place where we will be controlled by government officials, hospital administrators, lawyers and insurance companies. It's not about being lazy or easy. There's a lot of money in healthcare. The government wants to spend less as more and more people are putting their hands into the pot.
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I am going to break away from the crowd and suggest that the answer depends on physician salary under government health care reform (including those that have yet to be passed or implemented). If physician salaries increase proportionally, then yes, I think medical school tuition will increase. If salaries decrease significantly, then there will be an equilibrium where increased cost of attendance and medical school debt will offset the salary and an equilibrium point will result where medical schools must keep their tuition below to keep a healthy flow of medical students. To be sure, some will still go regardless, but if physician salaries slip enough, a good number will be turned away.