12,639 PharmD graduates in 2023

[CNJ_Anon]

AACP released Sept 2023 data, showing that the number of PharmD graduates finally dropped below 13000 after ten straight years above the 13000 mark. It looks like next year's report will show it dropped below 12000. This 5.1% year over year decline is not as large as last years (6.3%). The data is always a year behind. The NAPLEX attempt and pass rates are from NABP, the other data come from AACP. See this link for the full AACP reports:

Student Applications, Enrollments and Degrees Conferred Reports | AACP​

The number of PharmD grads peaked in 2018 at 14905. The year with the highest total enrollment was 2014 at 63927; it dropped to 53516 in 2021 and then to 47592 in 2022, and 44403 in 2023. The attrition rate (15.3%) set a high for this century. Compare it to the 2004 low of 1.3%.

Actual number of degrees awarded:
2015 13994
2016 14556
2017 14502
2018 14905
2019 14800
2020 14320
2021 14223 (NAPLEX First attempts: 14013)
2022 13323 (NAPLEX First attempts: 13267)
2023 12639 (NAPLEX First attempts: 11537)

Size of class of 202X (as of Sept 2023):
2024 11700
2025 11248
2026 10163

The number of applications to PharmD programs by year:
2017 72941
2018 60042
2019 50842
2020 40392
2021 40552
2022 35749
2023 33922

These data pertain to applications (and not to applicants). Each applicant usually submits 2 or 3 applications.

I included NABP's first attempt numbers above to attempt to quantify the growing number of people who get a pharmacy degree, but don't seem to be getting licensed.

Since the new trend is that an increasing number of PharmDs don't take and successfully pass NAPLEX and become pharmacists, here's a bit more arithmetic to track this slowly-deflating bubble. The recent (2021, 2023) NAPLEX all time pass rate is around 77%. In the years 2007 and 2008 when 9812 and 10500 PharmD degrees were awarded (respectively), the first time pass rate was 97%. If multiplying NAPLEX pass rate by number of PharmD grads provides an estimate of the number of new licensed pharmacists, then 2023 produced 9732 pharmacists, in between 9518 (2007) and 10185 (2008).

This report includes data from 141 institutions, compared to 138 last year, and 140 and 141 in the two years before that.

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[PharmDBro2017]

Metrics are trending in the right direction. Good.

 

[Prepharm1214]

Appreciate you compiling this information. Right direction but not quick enough IMO.

 

[sunnyandseventytwo]

Appreciate you compiling this information. Right direction but not quick enough IMO.

There is no right direction. That's like a light house keeper being happy that the College of Light House Keepers and Sewing Machine Repair Men is putting out fewer light house keepers. It might help him keep his job a few more years, but he's never going to build a light house empire and he'll eventually be replaced by an automatic light bulb when Big Light House decides an automatic light bulb is cheaper than paying him.

 

[projektreverb]

There is no right direction. That's like a light house keeper being happy that the College of Light House Keepers and Sewing Machine Repair Men is putting out fewer light house keepers. It might help him keep his job a few more years, but he's never going to build a light house empire and he'll eventually be replaced by an automatic light bulb when Big Light House decides an automatic light bulb is cheaper than paying him.

While I do think your point is credible, we luckily have some legislation protecting us (for now) against automation: our state license. I think it’ll stall them off a little bit longer.

 

[steveysmith54]

damage is already done. I'd need to see half of the schools closed to right the ship.
15 years ago, nobody really foresaw CVS closing stores, to the contrary they were expending.

 

[RxPreceptor]

You see gang, spouting nothing but doom and gloom and negativity is finally paying off 🤣
Now where are those golden handcuffs?

 

[Gombrich12]

Less graduates and the graduates who come out are less able. Gen Z kids are especially not able to handle the stress of retail. They're going to have to use a combination of automation, tech dispensing, and H1-Bs to address this manpower shortage.

 

[projektreverb]

Less graduates and the graduates who come out are less able. Gen Z kids are especially not able to handle the stress of retail. They're going to have to use a combination of automation, tech dispensing, and H1-Bs to address this manpower shortage.

I guess Gen Z kids won’t have no rizz…. All jokes aside I think retail will be automated to a certain level long before the Rizzlers enter pharmacy.

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

I guess Gen Z kids won’t have no rizz…. All jokes aside I think retail will be automated to a certain level long before the Rizzlers enter pharmacy.

How old do you think gen z is?

 

[projektreverb]

How old do you think gen z is?

I confused them with Gen alpha my bad

 

[RxPreceptor]

Future GenZ, Alpha: Call outs galore…I need a mental health day off, late openings and store closings galore (lack of time management, inability to prioritize, lack of life skills & “common sense” in general). This is already a regular thing with MANY (not all) young techs

 

[projektreverb]

Future GenZ, Alpha: Call outs galore…I need a mental health day off, late openings and store closings galore (lack of time management, inability to prioritize, lack of life skills & “common sense” in general). This is already a regular thing with MANY (not all) young techs

An interesting observation that was made to me is that we raised these generations in a world we created. So we do share some responsibility on how they turned out.

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

Future GenZ, Alpha: Call outs galore…I need a mental health day off, late openings and store closings galore (lack of time management, inability to prioritize, lack of life skills & “common sense” in general). This is already a regular thing with MANY (not all) young techs

Sounds a lot like the panic every older generation tends to have when looking at the younger ones. I'm sure this time is different though.

 

[Gombrich12]

Sounds a lot like the panic every older generation tends to have when looking at the younger ones. I'm sure this time is different though.

Go over to /r/teachers on reddit and you'll see that these kids are...different.

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

Go over to /r/teachers on reddit and you'll see that these kids are...different.

Ah yes a great place to get unbiased information with no exaggeration.

Maybe we should look at how we're failing our students instead of, or at least in addition to, how they're failing us.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/29/nx-s1-5090895/teens-school-college-poll

K-12 Schools Struggle to Engage Gen Z Students

Fewer than two in 10 Gen Z K-12 students strongly agree that their classwork feels important, interesting, challenging or aligned with their talents.

news.gallup.com

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

An interesting observation that was made to me is that we raised these generations in a world we created. So we do share some responsibility on how they turned out.

"These snowflake millennials are being coddled with their participation trophies!"
-The parents who decided to hand out participation trophies

 

[RxPreceptor]

"These snowflake millennials are being coddled with their participation trophies!"
-The parents who decided to hand out participation trophies

I’m a millennial and I like totally demand my participation trophy 🤣 (so stupid)

Seriously though, I’m grateful for being raised and adopting principles, values from my Grandparents (fought in WW2)…greatest generation for many reasons (they sure as hell didn’t believe in coddling and how dare I defend physical punishment for when yah done screwed up/acted wrongly)

 

[Gombrich12]

Maybe we should look at how we're failing our students instead of, or at least in addition to, how they're failing us.

We probably shouldn't let them play video games and use social media during class. I don't recall any of us doing that in the 90s. I think that might help.

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

We probably shouldn't let them play video games and use social media during class. I don't recall any of us doing that in the 90s. I think that might help.

Sure. How is that different from gen z and younger millennials? Cell phone use in class has been an issue since at least the 2010s. I'm sure the older generations each had their distractions that teachers dealt with too.

 

[RxPreceptor]

We probably shouldn't let them play video games and use social media during class. I don't recall any of us doing that in the 90s. I think that might help.

I notice more and more of us older people (Millennials, GenX, Boomers) yearn for the days pre smartphone era (iPhone)
Good times by comparison

 

[confettiflyer]

Sure. How is that different from gen z and younger millennials? Cell phone use in class has been an issue since at least the 2010s. I'm sure the older generations each had their distractions that teachers dealt with too.

I was definitely on AIM while sitting in class in college.

 

[GrandTheftAutumn]

That’s 12639 more pharmacists than we already need