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SDN data is likely not current. I would go with MSAR data because it’s more or less the raw and most accurate data that is accessible to us, whereas LizzyM is an interpretation of that data. With your mcat, I’d say you’re borderline for the tippy-top schools, but you have a shot anywhere. It’ll ultimately depend on how well you write your application and interview.
 
Being CA ORM, your MCAT score is borderline for top schools but if your ECs are really unique and your essays reflect that you have a chance every where. GL!
 
blinkblink2 said:
I'd agree with you if this were 15 years ago, but left/right wing are so strongly tied to education/lack thereof today that I think it's never been less true. I feel pretty comfortable saying "ACA should not be repealed" in my apps. I mean....look at some of their prompts, how ideologically left-wing they are quite frankly. I'm not even that left myself, more of a Biden Democrat.
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So you are not advocating for medicare for all in your apps? What healthcare policies do Biden Democrats support?
 
Back to your original question, I rely on the MSAR data. It is current and the 10%/25%/75%/90% MCAT thresholds give you a decent idea of where would stand as an applicant (especially the OOS vs IS accepted applicant data). I do agree with you that those accepted in the 10%/25% MCAT range very likely have higher than 50th-percentile GPAs, in many cases probably in the 75%/90% range. And some of those accepted with 10%/25% MCAT scores will tend to be URM or have some other unique/disadvantaged aspect to their application. My 2 cents.
 
blinkblink2 said:
Hey , thanks for any input. 74.5 LM from 3.94 cGPA (3.88 sGPA) and 516 (129/129/130/128). My WARS is >90, though some of level distinctions I found borderline...high 80s at worst. White male, CA resident.

Question is whether LM, which seems to indicate I"m viable for any school, is giving me the more accurate picture of my strength as an applicant than MSAR matriculant MCAT percentiles.

To look over schools/do what my chances assessment on MSAR, I rank high-to-low MCAT because my GPA is not a limiting factor for admission anywhere. For all the Ivies except Dartmouth/Brown, I"m below 50th percentile MCAT. It's the case that I"m as low as 10th percentile somewhere like Penn or NYU, yet LM suggests I"m viable at either.

Am I reading the MSAR data wrong to conclude these schools who have MCAT score as a greater consideration in admission are a real reach for me?
For example, am I failing to consider that the low percentile MCAT matriculants for a school probably have very high GPAs (if so, you could see this as an argument for LM being better indicator) and all boxes checked on ECs, plus some compelling "Interesting person committed to non-medical activities" stuff? I fit that profile.

TLDR: LM indicates there are no reaches for me, MSAR MCAT data indicates otherwise, or at least relatively few matriculants with my MCAT score at top tiers. Which is closer to the truth?
• white CA resident with ++ECs and 3.94
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LM is a rule of thumb, not one of the Ten Commandments.

Using MCAT score as a filter is fine as well.

I will provide school later, if you remind me!!
 
Goro said:
LM is a rule of thumb, not one of the Ten Commandments.

Using MCAT score as a filter is fine as well.

I will provide school later, if you remind me!!
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Thanks. I applied widely, but would be good point of reference in taking triage on secondaries.
 
Goro said:
LM is a rule of thumb, not one of the Ten Commandments.

Using MCAT score as a filter is fine as well.

I will provide school later, if you remind me!!
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This^^^^^^. Sure, you're "viable" anywhere with your GPA and MCAT.

"Accurate picture of your strength as an applicant"? No such thing for a white male from CA! Your stats are borderline for top schools, and your "strength" is going to come down to your ECs, essays, and interviews, to the extent you get them.

The tables and indices will tell you people with your stats are successful. They won't give you an accurate reading on how YOU are going to do. A white male from CA is not going to check a diversity box anywhere. A 3.88 is not off the charts at a top school. Neither is a 516.

What else are you bringing to the table, and how does it compare to the several thousand other people jockeying for the several hundred As the schools you are applying to are going to offer? Neither LizzM nor MSAR MCAT percentile data will be able to answer that for you.
 
blinkblink2 said:
Well, I have a lot of "experiential diversity" and let them know all about that where indicated (facetious).

Path of least resistance for me would have been journalism or law as a career. I do expect written portions will advantage me.

However, I may inadvertently be the embodiment of white male privilege. Perhaps I'll practice my uptalking and projective emoting ahead of interviews.
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I hear you. So, hopefully you understand the answer you seek just does not exist. You are also the embodiment of all the limitations of the indicators we use. They will tell you nothing other than people with your stats have been successful. This will have zero predictive value with respect to your odds.

Unfortunately for you, in 2020 there is no white male privilege in med school admissions. The bar is higher for you to reflect that privilege, and there is no way to know ahead of time whether your application is good enough to clear that bar. That really will depend on what the rest of your application looks like because, on their own, your stats are good (as the indicators indicate), but not spectacular. Yes, you are viable. Good luck!!!
 
blinkblink2 said:
For all the Ivies except Dartmouth/Brown, I"m below 50th percentile MCAT.
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You do understand the concept of medians, don't you?

I recommend the following:
NYU (maybe)
Columbia (maybe)
WashU (maybe)
Vanderbilt (maybe)
Yale (maybe)
JHU (maybe)
U Chicago (maybe)
U Penn (maybe)
Northwestern
Harvard
Mayo
Cornell
Stanford
Case
Duke
Sinai
U VA
BU
Baylor
UCSF
Pitt
USC/Keck
UCSD
UCLA
U MI
Rochester
Hofstra
Ohio State
U Cincy
Dartmouth
Western MI
USF Morsani
U MA
U IA
Albert Einstein
Emory
Tufts
NYU-LI
Jefferson
Miami
U CO
SLU
U VM
U WI
Your state school
 
Putkernerinthehall said:
His stats are better than ~93% of the applicant pool...
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That's great, but 57% of the applicant pool is unsuccessful. So that leaves us with 43% of the pool. Where is he there?

Where is he in the applicant pool from CA? The White pool from CA? The White male pool from CA?

All of a sudden, he's not in the top 7% anymore! 🙂 That's the point, and this is before we look at SES, ECs, 1st gen, etc. By the time we are done, he might very well be in the bottom half of high SES, White from CA, and could conceivably find himself out of the blessed 43%. And this is the limitation of one size fits all indicators.

None of us has any idea what's going to happen to OP, but we do know that a full 18% of applicants with GPAs above 3.79 and MCATs between 514 and 517 were not among the 43% from 2017-18 through 2019-20! Without knowing anything about that 18%, it is statistically much more likely that a high SES White male from CA will be part of that unfortunate cohort than just about any other demographic slice of the pool you can imagine. So, better than 93% of the applicant pool really doesn't answer OP's question.
 
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Given that you are a white man from California, I'd cross off any school where you are below the 10% percentile on the MCAT score. Those stat wh0res won't care if your gpa is 4.01, they aren going to shake their heads at that MCAT (which isi very respectable) and move on. That's where the LizzyM is weak, in folks that have a discrepancy between GPA and MCAT.

You have a good shot at being admitted somehwere (AAMC data) but where to target your applications is where the LizzyM or WARS comes in. I do think that you should be humble and modest in assessing yourself with WARS.
 
KnightDoc said:
That's great, but 57% of the applicant pool is unsuccessful. So that leaves us with 43% of the pool. Where is he there?

Where is he in the applicant pool from CA? The White pool from CA? The White male pool from CA?

All of a sudden, he's not in the top 7% anymore! 🙂 That's the point, and this is before we look at SES, ECs, 1st gen, etc. By the time we are done, he might very well be in the bottom half of high SES, White from CA, and could conceivably find himself out of the blessed 43%. And this is the limitation of one size fits all indicators.

None of us has any idea what's going to happen to OP, but we do know that a full 18% of applicants with GPAs above 3.79 and MCATs between 514 and 517 were not among the 43% from 2017-18 through 2019-20! Without knowing anything about that 18%, it is statistically much more likely that a high SES White male from CA will be part of that unfortunate cohort than just about any other demographic slice of the pool you can imagine. So, better than 93% of the applicant pool really doesn't answer OP's question.
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This ORM white male from CA can't do a whole lot better than he has. For the 18% figure you note, we can also say that 82% in that range do get accepted. And his GPA is at the upper end of 3.8-4.0 and his MCAT is not on the low end of that 514-517 range. So, by the numbers, he has a better than 82% shot. At some point, I think you have to admit he has a solid shot at some of his reach schools. Maybe that's what you mean when you said earlier "you are viable."
 
Putkernerinthehall said:
This ORM white male from CA can't do a whole lot better than he has. For the 18% figure you note, we can also say that 82% in that range do get accepted. And his GPA is at the upper end of 3.8-4.0 and his MCAT is not on the low end of that 514-517 range. So, by the numbers, he has a better than 82% shot. At some point, I think you have to admit he has a solid shot at some of his reach schools. Maybe that's what you mean when you said earlier "you are viable."
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There are lots of ORM with no discrepancy between GPS and MCAT so OP could have better to be viable for T20 schools based on stats. I noticed few 3.9 and 516-517 range ORMs from T20 UGs didn't get into top tier schools. Check WAMC threads from last 2 cycles and check results.
 
Putkernerinthehall said:
This ORM white male from CA can't do a whole lot better than he has. For the 18% figure you note, we can also say that 82% in that range do get accepted. And his GPA is at the upper end of 3.8-4.0 and his MCAT is not on the low end of that 514-517 range. So, by the numbers, he has a better than 82% shot. At some point, I think you have to admit he has a solid shot at some of his reach schools. Maybe that's what you mean when you said earlier "you are viable."
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Yes, I am absolutely NOT trying to say he is screwed. He will very likely be successful. My point was that LizzyM, MSAR and WARS have limitations, and the certainty he seeks regarding using indices or published stats to gauge his chances just doesn't exist, because of the fact that some people with any given GPA and MCAT belong to one applicant demographic bucket while others belong to another one. It just so happens, OP finds himself in the most difficult bucket (actually, second most difficult, since ORMs have it even worse!).

You can't just look at him and say he's good, because his stats place him in the top 7%. It's not that simple, and I think you agree. That's all!! 🙂
 
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